Have we seen this?
I don't know if it's been posted before...from the Hardball Times about Prince & Gagne.
Sorry if it's been posted before. I find it interesting.
...Prince seems destined to be a star, but his HR projection is what???
...And good to hear their projections on Gagne.
Quote: Hardball Times
Prince Fielder is a monster
"As good as we think he's going to be, Jay Bruce isn't even close to being as good as Fielder. Let's start with Fielder's projected .301/.397/.587 line--one that places him in the top-30 in batting average, top-20 in on-base percentage, and top-10 in slugging. Overall, only David Ortiz, Ryan Howard, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols have a higher projected OPS.
Then let's add in Fielder's ridiculous projected improvement--we foresee a 1.060 OPS by 2010, a number we project for no one this season. But that's not all.
In an essay in the back of the Season Preview, I develop a system for projecting a player's career statistics and figuring his odds of getting to any given milestone based on that prediction. Well, despite having just two full seasons under his belt, Fielder projects to hit 530 career home runs and garners a 37 percent chance at breaking Barry Bonds' career home run record. He actually bests Alex Rodriguez's odds, despite having 438 fewer home runs under his belt. Now that's impressive."
Eric Gagne will come back
"Gagne saved 16 games in 17 chances with Texas last season, posting a 2.16 ERA along the way. He was then traded to the Red Sox, and instead of shoring up their bullpen, Gagne fell apart, posting a 6.75 ERA. The Brewers gave Gagne a $10 million contract in the offseason, hoping that they will get the Texas version. What do our projections say?
We think the Brewers will get what they paid for. We project that Gagne will post a 3.35 ERA, and help Milwaukee win the National League Central by one game."
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6 comments
Comments
37% chance!
by Braunstalker on Feb 11, 2008 8:05 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
That is awesome!
by kgaul on Feb 11, 2008 8:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I wish
by ol Pete on Feb 11, 2008 8:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Wishful thinking, but...
by stevie ray Braun on Feb 11, 2008 8:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
A quick look:
Barry Bonds stays retired, so the home run record stops at 762.
Alex Rodriguez does not reach 762 for some reason.
Fielder averages 50 HR per season for the remainder of his career.
If all of those things happened, Fielder would break the record sometime during the 2021 season. He'd be 37 years old.
I hate to be the one to rain on the parade, but 50 home runs per season is a lot to average. And, given Fielder's body type and genetics, it seems unlikely that he'll be productive that long. I personally don't think he'll be able to play the field everyday past 31 or 32.
I love Prince as much or more than the next guy, but a 37% chance of hitting 682 MORE home runs in his career is a major stretch.
by KLSnow on Feb 12, 2008 8:35 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but...
by kgaul on Feb 12, 2008 8:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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