Community Projections 2008: Jason Kendall

by jacob on Feb 16, 2008 3:16 PM CST in Statistical Analysis Comment 20 comments

Jason Kendall signed a 1 year 4.25 million dollar deal with incentives and a vesting club option for 2009. He'll start the season as the primary backstop for the 2008 Milwaukee Brewers. At 34 years old, this will be Kendall's 13th season. In the off-season he had Lasik eye surgery. Last year he had a disappointing half season with the Oakland Athletics where he managed merely .226/.261/.281 in 80 games before being traded to the Chicago Cubs in a salary dump. Kendall rebounded a little in the NL Central posting a line of .270/.362/.356 in 57 games. Those 57 games had Kendall performing much closer to his career numbers of .297/.375/.394.

Community Projection
We'll go through the 8 position players in order around the diamond, perhaps a couple of bench players and then starting rotation. Every few days we'll look at a new player. I'll tally up the results. Use any methods you want to make projections, but please submit them in the comments to the appropriate projection thread as a single line of comma separated values. For the hitters we're going to project pa,ab,h,1b,2b,3b,hr,bb,avg,obp,slg,ops. So, with the player's name first, here's what your projection should look like.

For Example:
player,pa,ab,h,1b,2b,3b,hr,bb,avg,obp,slg,ops
NLAverageHitter,650,585,153,102,31,3,17,65,.262,.335,.412,.747

I've created a player projection tool to help you create a projection. Simply fill out the values for Plate Appearances (pa), Singles (1b), Doubles (2b), Triples (3b), Homeruns (hr), and Walks (bb) and the rest will be calculated for you and outputted below in a comma separated string perfectly formatted for submission. Simply copy and paste that line to a comment.

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my projection

like i've said other places around here, i'm certain kendall's power is gone, but i bet he can still slap some singles.

Kendall,480,440,124,95,25,2,2,40,0.282,0.342,0.361,0.703

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 16, 2008 3:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I have mentioned this before,

but I have heard Loretta talking about how the eye surgery really helped him with hitting. So, yeah, I expect decent obp from the guy who's ankle we busted on the first base bag.

by Braunstalker on Feb 16, 2008 3:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

my projection

Kendall,480,432,124,98,22,1,3,48,0.287,0.358,0.363,0.721

My initial off the cuff numbers were almost exactly the same as jacob's, but after playing with it a little I got these numbers. The eye surgery is probably the biggest factor in the increased singles and walks i hope to see.

Jacob, thanks for the projection tool, really made it a walk in the park.

by MadJimiBrewha on Feb 16, 2008 4:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

Kendall,520,479,132,105,22,1,4,41,0.276,0.333,0.351,0.684

I'm curious as to why the individual numbers of singles, doubles, etc., are really important.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Feb 16, 2008 4:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

linear weights

for linear weights, mostly.

but also so people can see how turning a couple singles into doubles, or hits into walks, affect the various rate stats.

i suppose i should've made clear that you can project whatever numbers you want to. if you just want to post avg/obp/slg that's fine, too.

so yeah, any format, any numbers you want to project are just fine, what i set up is just my preference for tallying the final results.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 16, 2008 4:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, okay

So long as there's a method to the madness. :)

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Feb 16, 2008 5:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Here's an article

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070624&content_id=2046414&vkey=news_ oak&fext=.jsp&c_id=oak

Its got a bit of that puff piece feel and its right before he was traded. It does sound a lot like what some others have said. I wonder how big a factor the ability to call a game is.

Also, isn't Oakland a pitcher's park? I wonder if there are people who are carrying the evaluation of park factor over the years?

It'll also be interesting to see who gets the number two catcher job. I suppose Munson has an advantage being able to hit lefty.

by ol Pete on Feb 17, 2008 2:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Prediction

Kendall,130,500,132,112,18,1,1,43,.264,.318,.310,.628

You know, I thought I was being generous. Those numbers make me vomit a little.

My non-embarrassing thoughts on the Brewers:
Two Fisted Slopper

by nmc on Feb 17, 2008 7:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

I did games instead of PA.

Kendall,543,500,132,112,18,1,1,43,.264,.322,.310,.632

No HBP's in Kendall's future.

My non-embarrassing thoughts on the Brewers:
Two Fisted Slopper

by nmc on Feb 17, 2008 10:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Kendall after LASIK

Boy he looks different:

His eyes are much bigger!

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 17, 2008 8:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Kendall

Kendall,555,506,141,115,23,1,2,49,0.279,0.342,0.340,0.682

I think moving to the easier league and a better park will help spark a little resurgence. Nothing amazing of course but it will be better than what we got out of Estrada last year.

by Ender on Feb 17, 2008 9:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wellll....

I'm as disappointed in Estrada as anyone, but he did have a .699 OPS last season. (Lame, but not .682 lame.)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 17, 2008 9:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

OBP

An OBP heavy .682 is better than a SLG heavy .699. OBP is roughly 1.7-1.8 times as important as SLG according to most people who study these things.

by Ender on Feb 18, 2008 6:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Kendall

426,383,109,88,18,1,2,43,.274,.360,.332,.692

I'm predicting the same rate stats, but I'm a bit more pessimistic on the playing time. I don't know that he'll stay healthy all year.

God, look at the slugging percentage.

Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.

by shooty babitt on Feb 18, 2008 10:20 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

my projection

Kendall,460,414,120,97,15,1,7,46,0.290,0.361,0.382,0.743

ya know, he's never totally sucked in the NL.

I'll warm up with you anytime

by ufoboy90 on Feb 18, 2008 6:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

My projection

Kendall,485,430,117,93,19,1,4,55,0.272,0.355,0.349,0.704

I'm cautiously optimistic.

Four greatest words ... Pitchers and catchers report.

by oconnobe on Feb 18, 2008 8:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Kendall

Kendall,480,441,117,101,13,0,3,39,0.265,0.325,0.315,0.640

Nice tool- that makes it easy to predict

I imagine Fielder, Braun, Hart, and Weeks will be much, much more fun to project. I'm looking forward to it.

by Jordan M on Feb 18, 2008 8:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

my projection

Kendall,458,425,128,105,18,3,2,33,0.301,0.352,0.372,0.724

I'm expecting a pretty good year.

by brewfan2 on Feb 19, 2008 8:56 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Mine

Kendall,500,450,121,100,20,0,1,50,0.269,0.342,0.320,0.662

And this feels like I'm being too optimistic with him.

by kingcharlesxii on Feb 19, 2008 1:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

mine

Kendall,259,237,64,51,10,1,2,22,0.270,0.332,0.346,0.678

a) Jacob, thanks for running this. Really appreciate it.

b) great projection tool.

c) since I spent untold hours in october building a projection system, I might as well buy into it. So these are the numbers that my system spit out.

The only weird thing I see is the playing time -- I spent a lot of time tinkering with this, but my system doesn't mess with playing time UNLESS the player is well below positional replacement. Which Kendall is. I suspect that he'll get more than 259 PA's, but if Ned decides he's not as good a defender as he thought, or if one of the backups steps up, it's definitely within the realm of the possible.

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 19, 2008 8:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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