Community Projections 2008: Prince Fielder

by jacob on Feb 19, 2008 10:32 AM CST in Statistical Analysis

Prince Fielder enters his 4th season in the majors. This is his final year of minimum wage baseball. At just 24 years old he is one of the premiere sluggers in the game. Last season he posted his best line yet of .288/.395/.618 and blasted 50 homeruns. This was good enough to get him 3rd place in the NL MVP voting.

Community Projection
We'll go through the 8 position players in order around the diamond, perhaps a couple of bench players and then starting rotation. Every few days we'll look at a new player. I'll tally up the results. Use any methods you want to make projections, but please submit them in the comments to the appropriate projection thread as a single line of comma separated values. For the hitters we're going to project pa,ab,h,1b,2b,3b,hr,bb,avg,obp,slg,ops. So, with the player's name first, here's what your projection should look like.

For Example:
player,pa,ab,h,1b,2b,3b,hr,bb,avg,obp,slg,ops
NLAverageHitter,650,585,153,102,31,3,17,65,.262,.335,.412,.747 You are, of course, free and welcome to submit any projections you want in any format and I'll try to accomodate them.

I've created a player projection tool to help you create a projection. Simply fill out the values for Plate Appearances (pa), Singles (1b), Doubles (2b), Triples (3b), Homeruns (hr), and Walks (bb) and the rest will be calculated for you and outputted below in a comma separated string perfectly formatted for submission. Simply copy and paste that line to a comment.

Voting is still open for Jason Kendall

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my projection

Fielder,670,545,167,80,38,2,47,125,0.306,0.436,0.642,1.078

The walks seem high, but I figured about 100 BB plus 25 HBP and SF. I don't think I necessarily agree with him batting over .300 (I sort of expect something around .295), but at 24 and coming into his 4th year of service I just don't see him performing much worse in any of the individual categories I set. I guess we will see what holds true, but boy does this get me excited for the season!

by MadJimiBrewha on Feb 19, 2008 12:01 PM CST reply actions

and on a side note

Jacob, with the format you requested I was wondering if you were going to put everyone's projections into a spreadsheet or something and at the end of the year see who came out closest to actual production. If not, that would be a pretty cool little contest we could have going.

by MadJimiBrewha on Feb 19, 2008 12:09 PM CST reply actions

My projection is pretty close to that last one....

Fielder,650,555,168,80,36,1,51,95,0.303,0.405,0.647,1.052

If A-Rod hits A-Bombs, does Fielder hit F-Bombs? It's dumb I know....

by Adam P on Feb 19, 2008 12:19 PM CST reply actions

Fielder projection

Fielder,666,568,165,76,36,2,51,98,0.290,0.395,0.630,1.025

...with 125 evil, evil strikeouts. :)

On the projection tool page, it says you should include SF in the BB count. SF shouldn't be included in BB, should they? Since a sac fly actually lowers a batter's OBP, it should be treated as just another out, right? Including it in BB for the projection makes it have the opposite effect, raising the player's OBP.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Feb 19, 2008 12:35 PM CST reply actions

Mine

Fielder,660,560,155,75,35,0,45,100,0.277,0.386,0.580,0.966

Projecting a small drop off last year, mainly because I think pitchers will pitch him differently at the start of the year and it will take him some time to adjust.

by kingcharlesxii on Feb 19, 2008 1:05 PM CST reply actions

Fielder

Fielder,660,560,169,70,50,1,48,100,0.302,0.408,0.652,1.060

"They're trying to make me the escape-goat" -Michael Scott

by msoebrewcrewfan on Feb 19, 2008 2:13 PM CST reply actions

Again

Fielder,675,620,175,108,21,2,44,55,.282,.341,.535,.876

Probably low.

My non-embarrassing thoughts on the Brewers:
Two Fisted Slopper

by nmc on Feb 19, 2008 2:18 PM CST reply actions

The Prince

Fielder,620,553,168,83,38,1,46,67,0.304,0.379,0.626,1.005

Four greatest words ... Pitchers and catchers report.

by oconnobe on Feb 19, 2008 3:02 PM CST reply actions

PF

Fielder,675,584,174,91,34,2,47,91,0.298,0.393,0.604,0.997

That was a lot more fun than Kendall!

by Jordan M on Feb 19, 2008 7:41 PM CST reply actions

my turn

Fielder,679,604,173,99,36,1,37,75,0.286,0.365,0.533,0.898

as I said in the kendall thread, i'm using what my projection system spit out. there's a lot of regression built in, so this is lower than most of the others...but it's still pretty good!

Weird, but not weird.

by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 19, 2008 8:38 PM CST reply actions

Better late than never

Fielder 610,502,164,85,33,2,44,92,.322,.433,.653,1.086

Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.

by shooty babitt on Feb 21, 2008 4:32 PM CST reply actions

My princely projection

Fielder,640,554,165,84,32,1,48,86,0.298,0.392,0.619,1.011

right around what he had last year, with a little improvement

I saw the overcrowded marketplase that is the brewers blogs and said, "Me Too!" The Chubber Lang Report

by hyattff2003 on Feb 25, 2008 10:05 AM CST reply actions

fielder

Fielder,700,621,176,81,42,2,51,79,0.283,0.364,0.604,0.968

walk totals down, HPB up. I think pitchers are going to come right after him more this season, resulting in more HRs, more doubles and more strikeouts.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Feb 26, 2008 5:46 PM CST reply actions

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