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Option options

I don't usually put too much stock in what anybody says about the season in mid-February, but there were some interesting quotes and tidbits in Adam McCalvy's article yesterday.

The basic point is this: Carlos Villanueva is great, he's flexible, and he's got an option year remaining.  This quote from Mike Maddux is pretty cool:

"He has the pitches to start, he has the stuff to go short and he has the resiliency to go back-to-back [days]," Maddux said. "So he can do it all, he's an all-encompassing utility pitcher. Is he one of our best five starters? Probably. Is he one of our five best relievers? Yes. So he can fill any role."

At least the organization seems to know that.

But, apparently, roster decisions are based on more than just goodness:

"I'm not saying by any stretch of the imagination that he's not going to make the team," Yost said of Villanueva. "I'm just saying that we are open-minded enough that we have to control our depth. ... We did that for years and years in Atlanta. We'd send a guy that was better than the guy we had [in the big leagues] down to Triple-A. Atlanta won 14 straight division championships, so we weren't really in a building mode."

I'm going to try to figure out what the hell Nedley is saying in just a moment.  But first, thank you Adam for sharing this information:

A number of candidates for spots in the starting rotation behind Ben Sheets and Jeff Suppan have Minor League options remaining, including Dave Bush, Chris Capuano, Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra and, yes, Villanueva. Only one of the competitors -- Claudio Vargas -- doesn't have an option.

I really wish that MLB would make option data more available to the public, so we wouldn't have to comb through articles like this to figure it out.  But anyway, now we know.  Basically, everybody can be sent down except for Vargas, who probably deserves it the most.  (Yes, I know he won 11 games.  I also know he's not a very good pitcher, and unlikely to magically become one.)

So when Yost says he wants to "preserve our depth," I assume that he means that he doesn't want to get rid of anybody.  That's tough, because there's only room for five starters in the rotation, and most of the other places to put them have their issues:

  • The bullpen: they could be useful there, but unless they are used strictly as long men, they couldn't step right back into the rotation.
  • The DL: Gallardo is there, but unless it's a Rule 5 pick with a swollen pinky finger, you can't just plop somebody on the DL because you want to.
  • The minors: Here you can keep the pitcher stretched out, but this isn't a possibility for Vargas.
It wouldn't surprise me to see either Villy or Parra sent to the bullpen.  But probably not both, because we want to "preserve our depth," and either could be sent to the minors to start there.

Ultimately, what this whole issue comes down to--I suspect--is that Ned doesn't want to part with Vargas.  If Vargas had an option, all of these guys would be identical in the team's eyes.  We'd go with our best five starters, and the other guys would pitch in Nashville.

What I'm afraid will happen is we'll get an Opening Day rotation of:

  • Sheets
  • Suppan
  • Bush
  • Capuano
  • Vargas
And then when Gallardo comes back, either Cappy or Vargas will go, depending on who is outsucking the other.  (Or somebody will be hurt, and that'll make the decision.)  That leaves Villy as the #7 guy.

If Capuano or Vargas was really bad, I wouln't be concerned about this.  If Sidney Ponson had a rotation slot, I'd be confident that Ned would see the light on about April 18th, and Villy would get the call.  But none of these guys are that bad.  Capuano, Bush, and Vargas all sported ERA+'s last year of 88.  The average SP is down around 90-95.  Those guys all have their good days, and they all have enough of a track record (of mediocrity, true) and enough potential that Ned, if he so chooses, can defend keeping them around.

But--and I think all of us, even Ned, know this--Villanueva is better.  Parra may well be better.  There is certainly some risk in losing some depth, but when that depth is Claudio Vargas and we have 7 good options aside from him, I'd be willing to take the risk of trading him or stashing him as the long man in the pen.

0 recs  |  Comment 24 comments

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"We're in a win now situation"
The front office shouldn't say this, because in all reality, they really aren't. Vargas should not be in the starting rotation unless three guys are hurt.

When Gallardo comes back, and if Suppan wasn't making 10 million a year, this is what I wish the rotation to look like:

Sheets
Gallardo
Capuano
Villenueva
Parra

They would have a good balance, and I believe the best opportunity to win "now".

by brewfan2 on Feb 22, 2008 11:31 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Wow
I'm amazed that so many of our starters have options remaining.

I'm guessing Moustache is really out trying to get whatever he can for Vargas, but will keep the rest, who will duke it out in Spring Training, with the losers going to the pen or AAA.

I wonder, though: if there are no takers for Claudio, will he be a starter or reliever?  Maybe we will end up keeping all of them.

I'm glad to see Tomo Ohka didn't change his first name to Tom in an attempt to trick teams into extending his career.  :)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 22, 2008 11:42 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Interesting
I'm too lazy to go back and find them, but there were several articles over the winter that strongly hinted that Villanueva had the inside track on the #4 spot in the rotation and that Bush/Capuanao/Vargas (and Parra, nominally), would be fighting for the fifth spot.  I kinda figured either Bush or Capuano would get traded, with the other one installed in the rotation and Vargas shunted to long man Sibera in the bullpen.
He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Feb 22, 2008 12:12 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

i too am lazy
but i remember those articles
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue

by Michael M on Feb 22, 2008 12:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Villanueva
Thinking about how this can all play out, I guess I would prefer to see Villanueva in the starting rotation. I fear that if he is put in the bullpen for long relief he is just to good to only be used in long relief situations and will end up working way more situations than that.

This is how I hope things shake out:
Sheets
Suppan
Villanueva
Bush
Capuano
Vargas in long relief
Parra to AAA till someone gets hurt

The real question is going to be what happens when Gallardo comes back. Do you try and trade Bush/Capuano or do you send one down to AAA. I'm betting one gets sent down where he can build some decent stats before being traded later in the year (depending on everyone else's health of course).

by MadJimiBrewha on Feb 22, 2008 12:44 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

My guess
is that they were trying to sell and that they still are. AAA is just a place to put someone temporarily till a good enough trade is offered. I think the question is what will be the rotation sometime in May rather than on opening day.

Personally, I think Vargas is a better pitcher than either Bush or Capuano.

by ol Pete on Feb 22, 2008 1:16 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Trade option?
Okay, so having depth is good.  But if we're looking to trade, due to the logjam and without major positional holes to fill, I would think we'd be looking to get prospects in return.  Maybe our pitching excess isn't fetching prospects to our liking.  Instead, could we trade someone for a draft pick(s)?  Is this ever done?  I'm not really advocating it, just curious if it could happen.

by John Brew on Feb 22, 2008 2:44 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I don't think
you can trade for picks.  Prospects might be a better way to go.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Feb 22, 2008 3:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Trade
At this point, I think if Vargas is traded in spring training, it'll probably be for some mediocre spare part that has an option left (think the Balfour for McClung deal).

I don't know what Bush and Capuano would fetch, but I also think they're less likely to be traded.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Feb 22, 2008 3:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Quotes like that from Ned
make me want to beat him with an oar.  The idea that this team can afford to break camp without taking the best pitchers they have on the roster has got to be the dumbest damn thing I've ever heard.  

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 22, 2008 5:59 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

someone needs to remind Neddy
That Atlanta only won one World Series in those 14 years.
Its all about the Bullpen this season that is the key.

by WSB Chris on Feb 22, 2008 6:24 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Hey man
Division titles fly forever.
He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Feb 22, 2008 7:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Who cares?
Trade Vargas for a bag of balls, and let the others duke it out. I'd be scared to see Vargas in any relief, seeing the way he nibbles with runners on base. Having Vargas on our roster come Opening Day definitely hurts our chances! For other teams, he'd be a step up at #4 or #5,but we've got 7 options that are way more fundamentally sound than him....

by kgaul on Feb 23, 2008 12:40 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Vargas
Am I the only one who thinks Vargas might be an effective reliever? He made six appearances out of the pen last year, and as I recall, they weren't all terrible.

He also compiled a 5.68 ERA in those appearances, though, so some of them must have been.

by KLSnow on Feb 24, 2008 8:39 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I agree
Before Melvin brought in the four new guys, I considered Vargas to possibly be a guy who could be a setup man at times. His weaknesses as a starter would actually help him in the bullpen. He throws hard, but only has three pitches, he works very slow, puts a lot of runners on, and was effective at getting out of jams last year.

It's possible his luck in stranding runners would drop and he'd be bad in the pen, but I think he would make a better long guy than Bush because his style of pitching seems to fit better.

But Vargas should not be in the rotation unless three other starters are injured/traded.

by Jordan M on Feb 24, 2008 9:24 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Nightmares already
about Cappy and Vargas being left in the rotation too long.  Keith Law of ESPN had Cappy's fastball clocked at an average of 83 mph in the last game of the year against the Cubs on August 30.  That was the game in which Cappy took his franchise record 12th straight loss after relieving Parra.  There was some bad luck involved but we have had some pretty awful pitchers over the years and Cappy still managed to set a record for futility.  If we want to do something crazy (like play baseball in October) the rotation should be:
Sheets
Gallardo
Suppan
Villanueva
Parra

by molitorfan on Feb 24, 2008 8:56 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

That would be my rotation
as well, but starting around mid-May. My guess is they're going to stash one or two guys in AAA till someone isn't healthy, falters or most likely is traded.

Did you read that Keith Law thing in the "insider" area?

by ol Pete on Feb 24, 2008 9:20 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
Parra and Villy will both get their fair share of starts this year at some point. By mid-May or June, someone will be hurt, ineffective, or traded.

by Jordan M on Feb 24, 2008 9:26 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Law
I catch his chats when I can but they go to Insider when he's done.  He likes Parra much better than Cappy.

by molitorfan on Feb 24, 2008 1:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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