Community Projections 2008: JJ Hardy
by jacob on Feb 26, 2008 6:54 PM CST
in Statistical Analysis
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PrintJames Jerry Hardy is 25 years old and entering his 4th season in the major leagues. He's in his first year of arbitration and went to the wire before settling near the midpoint at 2.65 million dollars for one year. An all-star last year, Hardy was actually leading the NL in homeruns at points in the first half. Seriously, that really happened. April and May last year were similar to his September of 2005. He slugged over .520 in all three of those months. A line drive pull hitter who works the count well we haven't really seen him put it all together for more than a third of a season. On June 1st last year Hardy was looking at his line in the newspaper and it sparkled back .304/.350/.567. From that day to the end of the season he cooled to post a .277/.323/.463 that line still bolstered his career stats to .263/.321/.429
Community Projection
Use any methods you want to make projections. Please submit them in the comments to the appropriate projection thread as a single line of comma separated values. For the hitters we'd like to project pa,ab,h,1b,2b,3b,hr,bb,avg,obp,slg,ops.
For Example:
player,pa,ab,h,1b,2b,3b,hr,bb,avg,obp,slg,ops
NLAverageHitter,650,585,153,102,31,3,17,65,.262,.335,.412,.747
I've created a player projection tool to help simplify the process. Fill out the values for Plate Appearances (pa), Singles (1b), Doubles (2b), Triples (3b), Homeruns (hr), and Walks (bb) and the rest will be calculated for you and outputted below in a comma separated string perfectly formatted for submission. Copy and paste that line to a comment. You are, of course, free and welcome to submit any projections you want in any format and we'll try to accommodate.
Voting is still open for Bill Hall and JJ Hardy and both could use a little love!
Results are posted for Jason Kendall, Prince Fielder, and Rickie Weeks.
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JimJerry
Hardy,517,476,128,83,27,1,17,41,0.269,0.327,0.437,0.764
HARDY
Homers will definitely drop because pitchers won't challenge him inside as much. His average should be better than what we've seen so far- his BABIB was around .275 last year and that will probably go up a bit.
pretty good for a slick-fielding shortstop!
I wonder
What would JJ be worth on the free agent market now?
Or, more to the point, what would our payroll be if we were paying market value for our players? Maybe double our current payroll?
I'd say more than double
I don't know
Good Point
i think you're right
yes he has less than a season under his belt, but couple that success with his success in the minors and while it is a gamble it's one that a team with a large payroll will take. you should, as a franchise, theoretically be able to leverage that lack of experience against the player, too, and still get a bargain.
i don't know, i like the current system, but it's unfortunate we don't get a chance to see how market value changes for experience since there are very few free agents without 6 years in the majors.
However, even in the current system there is a reason we don't see too many long term deals like Tulowitzki's. I guess it's hard to say from our perspective whether that is the franchise taking advantage of the risk protection inherent in the system, or player's holding out and looking to break the bank. If tulo continues to play at current and projected levels, he signed a horrible deal for him market-wise. just horrible. But putting your name to a contract that guarantees you are going to be a multi-millionaire when you are currently not one, is worth, for some, the difference in perceived value and market value.
This is the relative value of dollars.
Interestingly, this concept is exactly something that those who post tax tables and complain about high tax rates on the uber-wealthy don't understand. The 'casual economists' i guess you'd call them.
Like you say brewfan2, pitchers would be extremely interesting, a whole other story entirely. What would gallardo or liriano or even ian kennedy fetch right now?
free agent
Because he's still in the improvement phase of his career, if he were a free agent, you'd offer him something like 3/21.
i think yes, our payroll would be double. Prince and Braun are each worth 20-25 times what they will be making this year, Gallardo and Hart and Weeks 10-15 times...
Hardy has little power on anything
I don't want to enter a subject
JJ
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.14.2012 at 7:02 AM CST)
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