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Turnbow has just been unlucky?

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2008/3/23/16447/2153

According to R.J. Anderson's reasoning, Derrick Turnbow has had two of the three unluckiest seasons of any pitcher since 2004.  He concludes that Turnbow is, for whatever reason, significantly worse when there are runners on base.

I'm going to flash my ignorance here.  Does Turnbow use a full windup with the bases empty?  I guess nearly everyone does, except for a very few relievers.  If he does, there could be a mechanical flaw when he pitches from the stretch.  

Either way, it doesn't seem like "clutch pitching" is quite the same as clutch hitting since there are soooooo many other factors that come into play when runners are on than just nerves or strength of character or whatever... holding the runner, different motion, different pitch selection, different strategy (pitching to a groundball vs. a strikeout), etc.

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Stretch
Turnbow always pitches from the stretch. Of course, his giant deep breath comes first. Which seems to tell the batters, "I'm scared as hell."

by brewfan2 on Mar 27, 2008 9:35 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks
I guess I sorta recalled that, but I wasn't sure.  So throw out the mechanics hypothesis.
Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."

by DaleCoop14 on Mar 27, 2008 9:48 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

3rd Millenium suggestion
Maybe in this day and age, every MLB team should hire a team hypnotherapist. At least give T-bow some tranquilizers to pop after he walks his first batter.  

by keephopealive on Mar 27, 2008 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nice
Unfortunately, knowing his luck (or lack of it), he'd be on the mound when he took them and it'd be a balk for putting his hand to his mouth.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Mar 27, 2008 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oops
It's actually only an automatic ball, not a balk.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Mar 27, 2008 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's what Derrick needs
more banned substances.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Mar 27, 2008 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

isn't the story
that Derrick took a precursor that wasn't banned by MLB, but was by the Olympics.

by ol Pete on Mar 27, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes
At least that's the wikipedia said.

by drezdn on Mar 27, 2008 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yep
and we all know wikipedia is THE truth.

no, but seriously, i think in this case it's right.

"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue

by Michael M on Mar 27, 2008 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This piece has been bugging me
"He concludes that Turnbow is, for whatever reason, significantly worse when there are runners on base."

This Beyond the Box Score story has been vaguely bugging me for a few days now, but I couldn't quite put my finger on why.  I've been really busy at work, and I've only had about 5 hours a day to play around on the intertubes.  And what with all the March Madness and my passion for pornography, I haven't been able to post a response over there.  The quotation from your diary above finally helped me nail down what was bothering me.

Turnbow is not "significantly worse when there are runners on base."  He puts significantly more runners on base when he is at his worst.  He frequently comes in and shuts down the side, or maybe gives up a single with two outs before striking out the next guy.  Or he comes in, throws the ball all over the park, walks two batters, strikes one out, gives up a single, walks another, grooves a fast ball for a home run, then gets yanked. His problem on these days is not that he is unable to pitch with runnters on base or that he's unlucky.  His problem is he can't get the ball ove the plate, and when he does he has a harder time missing bats.  If you cleared the bases before each hitter, he'd still have a higher probability of putting each hitter on base than he would on one of his effective days.  We've all seen this happen week in week out for the last two years.

Beyond the reasons you list, which are very good ones, that's why we can't measure clutch in (or assign bad luck to) a pitcher's performance using Anderson's method, especially for a short reliever who has a tendency to blow up like Turnbow.

As has been pointed out a number of times on this site (and I think by Turnbow himself), the problem may not be mental but physical.  He seems to have many of his worst days when pitching for the second consecutive day.

Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.

by shooty babitt on Mar 28, 2008 9:06 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

very well said.
Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Mar 28, 2008 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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