Game Thread #10: Brewers (6-3) at Mets (4-4)
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 4:17 PM CDT
in Game Threads
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PrintOne great thing about playing the Mets is that there's no dearth of coverage of the game. Or the opponent, anyway. Tonight's matchup, weather permitting, is Manny Parra vs. Nelson Figueroa.
It's Figueroa's first start in a long time, and there's a great article about him in the New York Observer. The more diehard among you may recall that Figueroa pitched for the Crew in '02, and pretty much stunk. If you're a BP subscriber, it's fascinating to go to his PECOTA card and read the blurbs from each year's annual at the bottom of the page.
There's also a blogosphere like no other in the National League, and no fewer than three Mets bloggers q&a'd me leading up to the weekend series:
- MetsToday (Also, it turns out that Joe at MT is a former college D1 and semi-pro catcher, and he has some interesting stuff on passed balls that is worth reading.)
- Take the 7 Train (read my q&a with Jessica further down the front page.)
- MetsBlog
For more preview-y goodness, check out the baseball-reference game preview, which is awesome, thorough, and something I should really be linking to in every single game thread. While you're waiting for the game to start, you don't even need to follow all those links; there's a lot to read right here.
And finally, I haven't seen the Mets lineup yet, but using last night's starting eight, the project-a-tron says:
- Brewers 5.3
- Mets 4.3
- Brewers WinExp: 55%
I had to make up some numbers for Figueroa; I decided he's a 5-inning starter with a projected ERA of 5.50. If you knock that down to 4.50, it makes the Win Expectancy almost exactly 50%. (By the way, you'll notice that certain run differentials don't always spit out the same Win Expectancy--that's due to home field advantage, which I haven't quite gotten my head around as it applies to expectancies that aren't 50%.)
I haven't decided yet whether I'm going to the game. I do love my Brewers, but I don't like sitting around for hours in a rainstorm. The staff at Shea are notorious for doing whatever it takes to get games in, so nine innings could easily turn into a soggy six-hour experience.
Go Brewers!
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Vietnamese restaurant?
Nice.
It'd be nice if the "team from the sticks" won big tonight.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
wow
you really read all that!
that restaurant is really ridiculously good. i've actually considered moving because of all the good food in that neighborhood.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah
the "sticks" comment was charming indeed.
BTW, what difference five years make:
Nelson Figueroa 2002: ERA 5.03, 1-7
Claudio Vargas 2007: ERA 5.09, 11-6
ha!
nice pickup. I was kind of feeling bad for Figueroa after reading that NY Observer article, then I remembered: "dude, he sucks!"
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Lineup
2B Rickie Weeks
CF Gabe Gross
1B Prince Fielder
LF Ryan Braun
3B Bill Hall
RF Corey Hart
SS J.J. Hardy
LHP Manny Parra
C Jason Kendall
If Yost stays this consistent, maybe by the middle of the season, I'll have written a script that just automatically posts this lineup with that game's starting pitcher in the 8 spot.
Mets lineup
Schneider has the day off, so it's Raul Casanova time! The Brewers are dominating the big apple!
Oddly, Casanova is projected to hit quite a bit better than Schneider, so project-a-tron now says the Brewers are down to 54%. Project-a-tron doesn't know about passed balls, though.
Also, cheese.
WMLW means Milwaukee!
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Odds
LV Hilton Sports Book gives the Mets a win probability of 51.22% for tonight's game. Most other LV casinos give them a slightly higher win probability than that. Perhaps I will start running some Brewer games through my simulator to get some other comparisons.
vr, Xeifrank
i'm not sure sportsbooks are a good point of comparison
for big market vs. small market games.
I think nowadays the bias is less than it used to be, but still the sportsbooks are trying to balance bets, and there are a lot more mets fans out there betting than brewers fans.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Re: Odds
Good point, but try to beat them. There are lots of professional gamblers out there looking for inefficiencies in the odds/market who have decent bankrolls, so the odds makers have to watch what they're doing closely. Also, a more accurate statement as to what the sportsbooks are trying to do is to "make money", not necessarily "balance bets". They will take a chance with the "big market" fans weighting down one side of the line if they feel they can make more money off of it. Some types of bets/games they can do it on, and others they cannot. Thanks for the reply. :)
vr, Xeifrank
well yes
but they still have to reflect the pool of bettors to some extent. That's why the bias isn't the way it used to be.
I realize that beating them is hard, but being right more often isn't nearly as difficult. If you want to be more right, that isn't accurately measured by competing with something that takes a 10% advantage at the beginning.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions
I dig the Project-a-Tron
Everytime you write about it, this is what I think about:
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
that's what I'm going for.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 6:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Angel Pagan
I bet his parents thought they were funny
Not even that close
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
ueck's with you.
big time.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 6:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Umpires are all about order
Batting a pitcher 8th is like a slap in the face. :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Danger, Ned Yost, Danger!
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
WMLW
Has stellar audio again.. They actually had two feed overlapping each other for about 30 sec or so.
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 6:35 PM CDT reply actions
I would take it over the lack of any video
I really despise charter here in Madison.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm in Beaver Dam
on charter and get local Madison channels.. You don't have it on channel 21?
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions
21 in Madison is Univision
We don't get WMLW that I'm aware of.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 6:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Actually
Their website says channel 8 on charter except Sheboygan which is channel 23. Why I get it on 21, I don't know.
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions
I wish
channel 21 was wmlw thought. Seeing as my espanol is pretty rusty univision doesn't really do me any good, except for the fact that I'm pretty sure they employ the hottest actresses around.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Ha
I don't even think I have a pair of those anywhere and if I do I would have no clue where they are buried. I'll just settle for Uecks and you guys.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Might as well watch the Bucks
I'm sure that will be entertaining...
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 6:52 PM CDT up reply actions
I was thinking entertaining
in a more comedic sense.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions
If you're stuck watching the Bucks
At least you can take solace in the fact that espn is reporting that the Piston's John Hammond will be the GM.
There is hope!
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 7:07 PM CDT up reply actions
I missed the start of the game
anything interesting happen yet?
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Not really
Braun struck out by not swinging at ball four. I think Figueroa has a perfect game after 2.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Mets lineup
For a team spending as much money as the Mets are that lineup sure isn't all that great.
If we don't beat this guy
we seriously have to rethink our lefty-mashing lineup.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Surely he can't get Kendall out.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Damn
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
I would agree
Which makes me feel lucky we are 6-3 considering they are arguably our best three hitters.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm watching on archive
This first pitch strike stuff is getting real old. Its like Skaalen said no swinging at first pitch- I missed Harang but the second starter we faced in Cincy figured this out. Now this guy just went through the order 0-1 almost every time. Our offense is sluggish- yea- they play a 4 ball walk 2 strike strike out game. This is driving me crazy. I know nobody will read this but it was just driving me mad, mad I tell you!
"Just the kiss of the Hops"
by Gus Lezcano on Apr 12, 2008 12:55 AM CDT up reply actions
Oh and by the way
get Gabe Gross the hell out of there- righty lefty doesnt matter- obviously he is hitting .133 end of story. We need something to spark em.
"Just the kiss of the Hops"
Mannys looking good!
Of course, I thought that about CV not too long ago..
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 6:54 PM CDT reply actions
Finally able to watch the Crew on my MLB.TV Premium
Looks sweet so far. Don't think I'll be venturing too far away from the computer tonight
I don't subscribe
but I was punching buttons today and got a Mets game from last year. Brian was doing the play by play. I swear.
Not even a really well hit ball there
I just don't understand. Figeroa's stuff doesn't look all that great to me tonight.
I don't know much about cable networks and who owns what
but I find it rather peculiar that both tbs and tnt are showing the movie King Kong right now and both are at almost the exact same points in the movie.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
I think they are both owned by the same company
but that is strange...if you owned two cable channels, would you show the same thing on both of them?
Montell Jordan
Did you guys hear them playing "This Is How We Do It" after the Mets scored the first run? Is it still 1995 in New York?
Im listening to it right now
so I can drown out the story of how nelson figueroa is "the man".
"You have no honor!" - McClung to Fukudome
Parra
doesn't seem to be helping his case here to stay in the rotation.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
Piss poor throw
by Kendall too, but thats besides the point.
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions
good god
Stupid Brewers
Lordz Of Vengeance....Sometimes I drink...Okay...I drink most of the time.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Apr 11, 2008 7:19 PM CDT reply actions
Whew!
Wasn't looking good there. Nice DP.
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 7:20 PM CDT reply actions
Someone needs to sacrifice a chicken or something
to get this offense going.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
two bunts in the air
and we just let it fall to the ground. We may have gotten out of it but I still don't like the defense there
There we go
nicely placed jinx
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 7:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Uecker braggin' up the fog
Is it really that bad?
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
Parra out already
what's up with that
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
I'm pretty sure its the same umpiring crew
as the one where Ned went bonkers last year. They were doing the same thing then.
Flyers
I've been watching the Flyers game and flipping back and forth and I've still seen 3 awful calls. Did Ned say something bad about one of the umps' monthers?
last year and this year
same thing. There has to be some old grudge or something that causes that. NFL refs get reviewed. What happens to MLB umps who make the wrong calls? Talk about a giant invitation to gamblers.
I've often wondered that myself
With the amount of judgment calls in baseball there has to be some sort of review process to ensure some consistency.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 7:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Supposedly
MLB does check umpires calls for accuracy, but I don't think it's in a particular game. They need to get a certain percentage of calls correct in a certain period of time.
sounds like a system that can be gamed
if Cuzzi wants to shove a poker up Neds backside, he can just burn a couple freebies
Dissing KC
Mets dude (not Ron D) on Riske in KC: It's like going into a witness protection program.
Ouch
So
Are the Brewers Pitchers getting a giant strike zone too? (I'm not able to watch the game, and have just heard some of it on the radio).
there are a couple pitches to Ricky
that could have been called strikes and were called balls - make that three
Pleasantly suprised
to see Yost use Riske there. Hopefully another sign of the diminished role of "roles" and more importance placed on leverage.
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 7:44 PM CDT reply actions
Melvin
Probably took Yost aside and explained that Riske was to be used in high leverage situations. Yost just stared at him, so Melvin explained that Riske is gritty and a battler, maybe a grinder as well and then Yost understood.
This is it
I was going to call Prince's first HR, but didn't want to jinx it. I'll take an RBI double.
Looked like Beltran
had some trouble with the fog there.. Damn, almost..
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 7:51 PM CDT reply actions
That is odd
I take it there both privately financed.
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 7:54 PM CDT up reply actions
*they're
Laziness, pure laziness..
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions
WOW
I should take breaks from the game every other inning. Glad to see Fielder do a little producing.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
Nice outing by Riske
It shall not be in vain!!
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 7:57 PM CDT reply actions
Don't know if anyone else caught this
But it looks like Gagne is only going to have to do some community education work due to his mention in the Mitchell Report.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
Gagne PSA
"Kids this is what happens when you take HGH" *clip of cory patterson HR*
"You have no honor!" - McClung to Fukudome
Damnit Anderson
Why must you be so Gantner like? !?!
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 8:01 PM CDT reply actions
and
that he can barely see him b/c of the fog
This fog sounds exciting
I want to hear Uecks say someone skies one and have a Mets OFer lose it in the fog
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 8:05 PM CDT up reply actions
It almost happened last inning
But, unfortunately, Craig couldn't make it out of the infield this inning..
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions
gump
he's been around big baseball moments I would assume
by Trent Durrington on Apr 11, 2008 8:09 PM CDT reply actions
And his career
hasn't been "special" in any sense of the word.
Uh,. scratch that.. A world series or two?
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 8:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Well that blows
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
If Zach Jackson
gets a win in a spot start this year, I'll be satisfied..
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions
What happened besides Gross's flub?
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 8:17 PM CDT up reply actions
New York
can hardly handle fog, how will they make it through a Hurricane?
"You have no honor!" - McClung to Fukudome
If we come bak and win this
It is one of the more undeserved wins I've seen..
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 8:17 PM CDT reply actions
Double lead off...
let's get it going.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
How about Gross redeems himself here
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
or not
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 8:25 PM CDT up reply actions
And keep the score
within reach, is nice too.
by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 8:31 PM CDT up reply actions
impossible!
the big Zamboni was on the ice tonight. Plus it was reported that Kosuke was in the 2 spot.
Right now
The Defensive juggernaut that is the Pirates held the offensive juggernaut Reds to nothing so far (PPD)
Hey Jeff, an Assignment
Would you please go grab Prince and take him out for dinner tonight at Smith & Wollensky's?? PLEASE!!!!
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
wow
Zambrano loses and Roy Oswalt - I think he lost his first two - pitched four innings for Hoooston and gave up 8 earnies...
Small comfort
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
MetsBlog
I like the graphs they have at the top of the page for overall confidence in the team and manager approval rating. Any chance we can add those to the site? Maybe KL Snow could include those questions in his biweekly ballot for awards.
yeah, I noticed those too
good idea.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 12, 2008 8:17 AM CDT up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.15.2012 at 7:03 AM CST)
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