Game Thread #10: Brewers (6-3) at Mets (4-4)

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 4:17 PM CDT in Game Threads

One great thing about playing the Mets is that there's no dearth of coverage of the game. Or the opponent, anyway. Tonight's matchup, weather permitting, is Manny Parra vs. Nelson Figueroa.

It's Figueroa's first start in a long time, and there's a great article about him in the New York Observer. The more diehard among you may recall that Figueroa pitched for the Crew in '02, and pretty much stunk. If you're a BP subscriber, it's fascinating to go to his PECOTA card and read the blurbs from each year's annual at the bottom of the page.

There's also a blogosphere like no other in the National League, and no fewer than three Mets bloggers q&a'd me leading up to the weekend series:

MetsToday (Also, it turns out that Joe at MT is a former college D1 and semi-pro catcher, and he has some interesting stuff on passed balls that is worth reading.)
Take the 7 Train (read my q&a with Jessica further down the front page.)
MetsBlog

For more preview-y goodness, check out the baseball-reference game preview, which is awesome, thorough, and something I should really be linking to in every single game thread. While you're waiting for the game to start, you don't even need to follow all those links; there's a lot to read right here.

And finally, I haven't seen the Mets lineup yet, but using last night's starting eight, the project-a-tron says:

Brewers 5.3
Mets 4.3
Brewers WinExp: 55%

I had to make up some numbers for Figueroa; I decided he's a 5-inning starter with a projected ERA of 5.50. If you knock that down to 4.50, it makes the Win Expectancy almost exactly 50%. (By the way, you'll notice that certain run differentials don't always spit out the same Win Expectancy--that's due to home field advantage, which I haven't quite gotten my head around as it applies to expectancies that aren't 50%.)

I haven't decided yet whether I'm going to the game. I do love my Brewers, but I don't like sitting around for hours in a rainstorm. The staff at Shea are notorious for doing whatever it takes to get games in, so nine innings could easily turn into a soggy six-hour experience.

Go Brewers!

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Vietnamese restaurant?

Nice.

It'd be nice if the "team from the sticks" won big tonight.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 11, 2008 4:33 PM CDT 0 recs

wow

you really read all that!

that restaurant is really ridiculously good. i've actually considered moving because of all the good food in that neighborhood.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 4:44 PM CDT up 0 recs

yeah

the "sticks" comment was charming indeed.

BTW, what difference five years make:

Nelson Figueroa 2002: ERA 5.03, 1-7
Claudio Vargas 2007: ERA 5.09, 11-6

by Zeyes on Apr 11, 2008 5:01 PM CDT up 0 recs

ha!

nice pickup. I was kind of feeling bad for Figueroa after reading that NY Observer article, then I remembered: "dude, he sucks!"

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 5:12 PM CDT up 0 recs

Lineup

2B Rickie Weeks
CF Gabe Gross
1B Prince Fielder
LF Ryan Braun
3B Bill Hall
RF Corey Hart
SS J.J. Hardy
LHP Manny Parra
C Jason Kendall

If Yost stays this consistent, maybe by the middle of the season, I'll have written a script that just automatically posts this lineup with that game's starting pitcher in the 8 spot.

by drezdn on Apr 11, 2008 4:58 PM CDT 0 recs

Mets lineup

Schneider has the day off, so it's Raul Casanova time! The Brewers are dominating the big apple!

Oddly, Casanova is projected to hit quite a bit better than Schneider, so project-a-tron now says the Brewers are down to 54%. Project-a-tron doesn't know about passed balls, though.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 5:42 PM CDT 0 recs

Seriously?

The Bucks? Again? F#@%*$^

by sheeter on Apr 11, 2008 6:04 PM CDT 0 recs

WMLW means Milwaukee!

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 11, 2008 6:08 PM CDT up 0 recs

(steam rising from my head)

by sheeter on Apr 11, 2008 6:09 PM CDT up 0 recs

Odds

LV Hilton Sports Book gives the Mets a win probability of 51.22% for tonight's game. Most other LV casinos give them a slightly higher win probability than that. Perhaps I will start running some Brewer games through my simulator to get some other comparisons.
vr, Xeifrank

by Xeifrank on Apr 11, 2008 6:06 PM CDT 0 recs

i'm not sure sportsbooks are a good point of comparison

for big market vs. small market games.

I think nowadays the bias is less than it used to be, but still the sportsbooks are trying to balance bets, and there are a lot more mets fans out there betting than brewers fans.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 6:11 PM CDT up 0 recs

Re: Odds

Good point, but try to beat them. There are lots of professional gamblers out there looking for inefficiencies in the odds/market who have decent bankrolls, so the odds makers have to watch what they're doing closely. Also, a more accurate statement as to what the sportsbooks are trying to do is to "make money", not necessarily "balance bets". They will take a chance with the "big market" fans weighting down one side of the line if they feel they can make more money off of it. Some types of bets/games they can do it on, and others they cannot. Thanks for the reply. :)
vr, Xeifrank

by Xeifrank on Apr 11, 2008 6:18 PM CDT up 0 recs

well yes

but they still have to reflect the pool of bettors to some extent. That's why the bias isn't the way it used to be.

I realize that beating them is hard, but being right more often isn't nearly as difficult. If you want to be more right, that isn't accurately measured by competing with something that takes a 10% advantage at the beginning.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 6:27 PM CDT up 0 recs

I dig the Project-a-Tron

Everytime you write about it, this is what I think about:

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 11, 2008 6:07 PM CDT 0 recs

that's what I'm going for.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 6:09 PM CDT up 0 recs

Angel Pagan

I bet his parents thought they were funny

by sheeter on Apr 11, 2008 6:13 PM CDT 0 recs

Manny looks pumped

good to see him starting off around that strike zone

by ol Pete on Apr 11, 2008 6:17 PM CDT 0 recs

Braun's strike 3

looked outside to me.

by oconnobe on Apr 11, 2008 6:28 PM CDT 0 recs

Not even that close

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 11, 2008 6:29 PM CDT up 0 recs

ditto but not by much

by ol Pete on Apr 11, 2008 6:29 PM CDT up 0 recs

ueck's with you.

big time.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 6:30 PM CDT up 0 recs

Nice

I'm watching the Mets tv feed on extra innings. They called it a "Brooklyn strike."

by oconnobe on Apr 11, 2008 6:32 PM CDT up 0 recs

oh no

an umpiring crew that hates Ned

by ol Pete on Apr 11, 2008 6:29 PM CDT 0 recs

Umpires are all about order

Batting a pitcher 8th is like a slap in the face. :)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 11, 2008 6:30 PM CDT up 0 recs

um. 6 up 6 down for figueroa

project-a-tron didn't see that coming.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 11, 2008 6:32 PM CDT 0 recs

Danger, Ned Yost, Danger!

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 11, 2008 6:33 PM CDT up 0 recs

WMLW

Has stellar audio again.. They actually had two feed overlapping each other for about 30 sec or so.

by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 6:35 PM CDT 0 recs

I would take it over the lack of any video

I really despise charter here in Madison.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 6:38 PM CDT up 0 recs

I'm in Beaver Dam

on charter and get local Madison channels.. You don't have it on channel 21?

by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 6:42 PM CDT up 0 recs

21 in Madison is Univision

We don't get WMLW that I'm aware of.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 6:45 PM CDT up 0 recs

Actually

Their website says channel 8 on charter except Sheboygan which is channel 23. Why I get it on 21, I don't know.

by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 6:48 PM CDT up 0 recs

I wish

channel 21 was wmlw thought. Seeing as my espanol is pretty rusty univision doesn't really do me any good, except for the fact that I'm pretty sure they employ the hottest actresses around.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 6:47 PM CDT up 0 recs

any chance of busting out the ol' rabbit ears

and getting something long distance?

by ol Pete on Apr 11, 2008 6:49 PM CDT up 0 recs

Ha

I don't even think I have a pair of those anywhere and if I do I would have no clue where they are buried. I'll just settle for Uecks and you guys.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 6:51 PM CDT up 0 recs

they make nice FM antennas

if you see one for a buck or something at a garage sale... grab it.

by ol Pete on Apr 11, 2008 6:53 PM CDT up 0 recs

Might as well watch the Bucks

I'm sure that will be entertaining...

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 6:52 PM CDT up 0 recs

please don't encourage them

by sheeter on Apr 11, 2008 6:58 PM CDT up 0 recs

I was thinking entertaining

in a more comedic sense.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 7:00 PM CDT up 0 recs

sure

I meant don't encourage FSN - they don't know why you're watching :)

by sheeter on Apr 11, 2008 7:04 PM CDT up 0 recs

If you're stuck watching the Bucks

At least you can take solace in the fact that espn is reporting that the Piston's John Hammond will be the GM.

There is hope!

by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 7:07 PM CDT up 0 recs

Manny's fastballs are high 80s mostly

Do they look that slow to anyone? Seem a little hotter to me.

by ol Pete on Apr 11, 2008 6:35 PM CDT 0 recs

I missed the start of the game

anything interesting happen yet?

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 6:40 PM CDT up 0 recs

no rain?

a Trenni appearance?

Manny through 2?

by ol Pete on Apr 11, 2008 6:42 PM CDT up 0 recs

Not really

Braun struck out by not swinging at ball four. I think Figueroa has a perfect game after 2.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 11, 2008 6:43 PM CDT up 0 recs

Mets lineup

For a team spending as much money as the Mets are that lineup sure isn't all that great.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 11, 2008 6:43 PM CDT 0 recs

If we don't beat this guy

we seriously have to rethink our lefty-mashing lineup.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 11, 2008 6:44 PM CDT 0 recs

Surely he can't get Kendall out.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 11, 2008 6:45 PM CDT 0 recs

Damn

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 11, 2008 6:46 PM CDT up 0 recs

he got a nice swing on it

by ol Pete on Apr 11, 2008 6:46 PM CDT up 0 recs

yes, he can

and don't call him Shirley

by sheeter on Apr 11, 2008 6:46 PM CDT up 0 recs

We will see what the second time through the order brings

The offense clearly hasn't hit it's stride yet though.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 11, 2008 6:47 PM CDT 0 recs

Ryan, Prince and Corey

are all starting slow

by ol Pete on Apr 11, 2008 6:55 PM CDT up 0 recs

Rickie too

I expect big things from you this year Rickie.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 11, 2008 6:56 PM CDT up 0 recs

I would agree

Which makes me feel lucky we are 6-3 considering they are arguably our best three hitters.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 7:02 PM CDT up 0 recs

I'm watching on archive

This first pitch strike stuff is getting real old. Its like Skaalen said no swinging at first pitch- I missed Harang but the second starter we faced in Cincy figured this out. Now this guy just went through the order 0-1 almost every time. Our offense is sluggish- yea- they play a 4 ball walk 2 strike strike out game. This is driving me crazy. I know nobody will read this but it was just driving me mad, mad I tell you!

"Just the kiss of the Hops"

by Gus Lezcano on Apr 12, 2008 12:55 AM CDT up 0 recs

Oh and by the way

get Gabe Gross the hell out of there- righty lefty doesnt matter- obviously he is hitting .133 end of story. We need something to spark em.

"Just the kiss of the Hops"

by Gus Lezcano on Apr 12, 2008 1:07 AM CDT up 0 recs

Mannys looking good!

Of course, I thought that about CV not too long ago..

by throughhyperspace on Apr 11, 2008 6:54 PM CDT 0 recs

Finally able to watch the Crew on my MLB.TV Premium

Looks sweet so far. Don't think I'll be venturing too far away from the computer tonight

by verno329 on Apr 11, 2008 6:56 PM CDT 0 recs

I don't subscribe

but I was punching buttons today and got a Mets game from last year. Brian was doing the play by play. I swear.

by ol Pete on Apr 11, 2008 7:00 PM CDT up 0 recs

clean up crow at Shea

must love "dog day"

woof!

by ol Pete on Apr 11, 2008 6:58 PM CDT 0 recs

Not even a really well hit ball there

I just don't understand. Figeroa's stuff doesn't look all that great to me tonight.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 11, 2008 7:02 PM CDT 0 recs

I don't know much about cable networks and who owns what

but I find it rather peculiar that both tbs and tnt are showing the movie King Kong right now and both are at almost the exact same points in the movie.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 11, 2008 7:07 PM CDT 0 recs