Strength of Schedule
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 14, 2008 11:13 AM CDT
in Statistical Analysis
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PrintWe're two weeks in, so I think it's time to start drawing some absurd conclusions based on some weak assumptions.
To get us started, I worked out the relative strength of the Brewers and Cubs schedules. (If the Cards are still hanging in there in a few weeks, maybe I'll run them too.) To get the 2008 "strength" of each team, I used the aggregate results of the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout, then gave AL teams a few extra wins. Of course, these projections are fallible; for one thing, they prefer the Cubs to the Brewers.
Using those numbers and our actual schedules, the Cubs appear to have a slight edge. They will probably have an easier time in Interleague play, and they play the Astros and Pirates 18 times each, compared to our 15 times. (We get the Reds 18 times.)
That edge boils down to about one win. If the Cubs and Brewers were both average (for all of the NL) teams, the Cubs would win 83 games and the Brewers would win 82.
Now for that absurd/weak conclusion/assumption stuff.
12 games in, we can run the same exercise for that part of the season that's already under our belt. As you probably know, the Brewers have a one-game edge on the Cubs. As it turns out, despite our series against the Giants, we've faced a tougher round of early opponents.
The Cubs/Giants/Reds/Mets have an aggregate projected winning percentage of .514, while the Cubs opponents, the Brewers/Astros/Pirates/Phillies, forecast to .488. (Only a tiny amount of that difference is because the Cubs are projected to have a better record than the Crew.)
It's interesting that .488 is the Cubs opponents' winning percentage so far, since that's the overall number for Cubs opponents on the season. So, small sample size and all that, but the opening 7-5 for Chicago isn't skewed by the competition they faced so far. That's not a bad thing for the Northsiders: Keep up a .583 winning percentage and you end with 94 or 95 wins.
But the story is better for the Crew. Our actual winning percentage is .667, on pace for a cool 108 wins. (Remember: "weak"/"absurd," but I'll take it.)
Adjust that for the quality of competition and we get all the way up to 111. In other words, we might as well just release Derrick Turnbow now, because he's not going to get very much work in.
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Hmm
Should the Cubs keep playing, do you think? :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
another thing
Of course, these projections are fallible; for one thing, they prefer the Cubs to the Brewers.
Also, they are completely dependent upon the depth chart that SG chooses to use. So i'm pretty sure that SG is using Vargas' and Capuano's ZiPS projections instead of Villanueva and Parra. And those projections save, i think, (just off the top of my head) maybe a run per game each. That's huge for 40% of the rotation to improve by a whole run per game.
One win sounds about right. Last year they got the white sox 6 times, that helped quite a bit, also, they played 3 fewer games against the AL. One extra win because of favorable scheduling, and maybe one more because of a homerun that never was, and two games could be quite a difference maker. :)
Bring Back The Old Logo!
didn't see the replay
but over at the other BCB and in Reds world, it didn't sound like there was much doubt that the "HR" was a foul ball.
I did see a replay of a few of the pitches in the Cards/Gigantos game and they didn't look that bad but at Vivaelbirdos you'd think the strike zone was radically different than earlier in the game.
This is fun.
Remember last year when Cub fans screamed all summer that the Brewers RS/RA ratio indicated their record was inflated and a fade was inevitable?
Don't look now, but the Cubs RS/RA is 59/60. Yet somehow, they're 2 games over .500. :)
"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 14, 2008 12:30 PM CDT reply actions
kapler will make up for it
with his 78 home runs.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 14, 2008 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions
is he gonna take some time off? playing a full season there's no way that Kapler can be held under 85 dingers
Here's the thing
we're going to have to put him on the restricted list for a while so he can broker peace in the middle east, and also negotiate with China during the olympics to address some human rights issues.
With all that on his plate, he'll be lucky to get 400 ABs, in which I think he will probably top out around 78 HRs.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 14, 2008 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't forget
sending him to Iraq to finish up the job there. He works pretty efficiently so I think he will get the 78HR's by seasons end. :p
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
Let's order the champagne!
I mean, what's the point of projections if we can't base them on "weak/absurd" data that support our cause!
by Oakland Brewer Fan on Apr 14, 2008 1:20 PM CDT reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.15.2012 at 1:03 PM CST)
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