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Much Ado About Lineups

Just about every in-game conversation this year has veered into the domain of lineup arrangement.  Should Kendall bat ninth?  Shouldn't we swap Bill Hall and Corey Hart?  Do we really want a minor leaguer and a retired guy batting second?  Should Prince be batting before or after Braun?

I understand why it's a popular topic of conversation.  First off, it's obvious--not like, say, where Rickie Weeks is positioned when Pujols is at the plate--and it's easy to fix.  We can say things like, "If Corey were batting fifth, Prince wouldn't have been walked so many times yesterday."  And in some cases, they might well be true.

But let me tell you: Of the issues confronting this team, how the lineup is arranged is near the bottom of the list.

First off, most lineup decisions have very little impact on the score.  I'm on record supporting the pitcher-batting-eighth approach, but I realize that the end result is a very slight improvement.  The same would be the case swapping Hall and Hart, and unless Prince and Braun are much less adaptable people than I give them credit for, the same would be true in their case, as well.

The usual counter-argument here is...what about protection?  Don't we need somebody good hitting behind [Braun/Fielder/Hart/whoever]?  Short answer: No, we don't.

While a very slight effect can be detected, "protection" is basically a myth.  As we saw yesterday, it doesn't always look that way; the Cards walked Fielder all four times he was up.  I suspect that has as much to do with Looper's track record against lefties than his relative fear of Hart or Hall.  (Hart may be hot in our current two-game span, but that would be a pretty stupid factor on which to base a decision.)

The trouble with most knee-jerk assessments--including many of the common complaints about Yost--is that we tend to assume the best for the alternative that *we* would've selected.  Sometimes we might be right, but more often than not, the difference is minimal.

I don't mean to pick on anybody in particular, but in last night's game thread, there was a torrent of abuse on Yost and Joe Dillon when Dillon made a weak throw to the plate.   Nobody would argue that Dillon is a gold-glove outfielder, or that he has a good arm.  But is it a lock that Braun would've gunned down the runner?  Far from it; this is a guy who is in the outfield because he couldn't reliably get the ball across the infield on target.  I'm not saying that Braun shouldn't be in the lineup, but that play hardly proves it, no more Dillon's great play later in the inning proves that Dillon should be in the lineup over Braun.

The same sort of problems are inherent in most lineup quibbles.  When Jim Powell says, "I'll bet they wish the pitcher wasn't batting 8th here," he's assuming that a #8 hitter--Hardy, let's say--*would* get the job done, *and* that the team won't get any added benefit from having an actual hitter  lead off the next inning in the #9 slot.

We can see the same sort of half-blind analysis when calling for a quicker hook.  It isn't always clear-cut, but the sooner you pull your starter, the sooner you get to a middle reliever.  Dave Bush is no world-beater, but who else would've pitched the 6th last night--Seth McClung?  Maybe there are times where McClung should be in there, but to think you can plug in your 12th pitcher and automatically stop the bleeding, you've got a very optimistic view of major league middle relief.

I'm not trying to argue that all lineup quibbles are wrong, or that Ned Yost is always right.  Surely neither of those are the case.  But there's always another side to the analysis, and lately, I've been hearing the knee-jerk commentary a lot more than the more balanced approach that we ought to be taking.

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Well Said

I don’t think the line up is causing any problems for the team, though for some hitters, it does seem like hitting before Braun/Fielder turns them into great hitters (TGJr., Kapler, and Hardy for a while last year)... While it has no affect for others (Gross, Hardy for the rest of the year).

Haudricourt tried saying that Hardy isn’t happy with hitting in front of the pitcher, but overlooks the fact that he was hitting in front of the pitcher when he started getting hot again last season (though in the 8th spot rather than the 7th).

Maybe there is a slight psychological effect the order is having on the players, but I think it’s just more likely that the team struggles more against right handed pitchers.

by drezdn on Apr 16, 2008 1:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I had forgotten about that

As it turns out, I just finished an article for THT about batting in front of the pitcher, so I have some numbers that I don’t know are available elsewhere.

JJ batted in front of the pitcher (an actual pitcher, not the pitchers spot) 48 times last year, and here was his batting line:
404/425/537

I want that again.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 16, 2008 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dillon's play

The TV guys mentioned that Schumaker would have been thrown out at second had Bill Hall gone there after cutting off Dillon’s toss. I don’t know if that’s true, but assuming it is (dicey, I know), how come there weren’t complaints about Hall fumbling the ball out of his glove after he caught Dillon’s throw? Schumaker ended up scoring, but Hall’s miscue on a ball he had in his glove was virtually ignored. That’s what I don’t get about blaming Yost for everything sometimes – how come he isn’t blamed for things like that?

This opens up another can of worms, too, but where’s the sense in complaining about Dave Bush giving up runs that inning in almost the same breath as condemning the defense behind him? I guess he should’ve struck everyone else out as soon as someone got on base.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 16, 2008 1:34 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I vote for not throwing soft balls over the middle of the plate

but I think the only vote that counts is Yost. He says that he pitched “a great game.”

Bush is working on some mechanical things. I imagine that will last for a while. Bush also said that he isn’t worried about the problem when Yo returns. I’ll bet he knows that he has a spot as a starter, probably for the year.

by ol Pete on Apr 16, 2008 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What does that have to do with what I said?

I know you don’t like what he throws. That’s not what I was arguing.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 16, 2008 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

you made the comment about how he should have struck everyone out

I say, regardless, he shouldn’t pitch in a way that will be hit hard by every team in MLB.

The defense also made some exceptional plays to help him out. That has to be weighed as well.

by ol Pete on Apr 16, 2008 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Either way

If it’s hit at people and the defense botches the play, what does it really matter what he threw that gave the defense the opportunity to mess up? If he had given up a bunch of hits in a row, then yes, I’m sure you have a point. But he hadn’t in that inning.

As I see it, in that inning the defense let him down and people jumped on him giving up two runs because his name is Dave Bush. If it happens to any other starter, I’m sure the defense gets blamed.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 16, 2008 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Dave Bush has an inordinate amount of support

I’m not sure why. And yes, it matters what he throws.

And like I said, he could have easily been tagged for more runs earlier and nobody would have talked about the defense because they made tough plays.

by ol Pete on Apr 16, 2008 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I get your point.

Bush did have an improved start last night (6 innings and 3 runs isn’t great, but it’s better than his first two starts, at least on paper). The defense gives and takes though. A better play from Hall (who had a bad night all around) might have prevented one run in that inning, and a great throw might have prevented two (though I doubt it, regardless of whether it was Dillon or Braun in left). But it’s also true that Dillon’s catch (which I doubt Braun would have made) saved Bush from giving up 4 or 5 ER instead of 3. And a 5-6 inning night with 4-5 ER isn’t that far off the first two starts which drew so much negative thought his way.

I think people are just tired of Bush’s act. That may not be fair, but it shouldn’t be that surprising either. Based on his performance his first year here and a little bit of hype that followed, I think a lot of folks were hoping he’d continue to develop, and he hasn’t. I also think some people are affected (particularly early in the year) by the fact that he’s got the #3 spot in the rotation. Those spots don’t really mean much after a few weeks in, but I think it makes people expect him to have something more than the #5 guy, when in fact he doesn’t have any more to show. Bush is a fifth starter type guy in my opinion, so my expectations of him aren’t really all that high, but I’m not sure others see him that way. My biggest beef with him is his innings. To me what made him so valuable right after his arrival was that he could suck up innings and keep you in games, but last season and in his first two starts this year, his abiltity to go past the 5th has been pretty limited, and a regular starter who gives up 4-5 runs over 5 innings every 5 days just isn’t that useful.

But if he can get back to starts like last night, i.e., 6 or more innings giving up 3 runs or so, I’ll go a lot easier on him.

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 16, 2008 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I saw that play

From the camerawork, I couldn’t tell how good a throw would be required to get the runner at the plate. But once the ball was back in the infield (i.e., Hall’s bobble), you had a pretty good view of what was going on. As much as I like Bill E. Hall, if he fields the throw cleanly, any relatively accurate throw would have gotten the runner going to second.

Another interesting what-if question: I also couldn’t see the runners relative to second and home - I don’t remember how many outs there were, but it’s possible that, with a good throw and quick tag, the runner at second could have been out before the run scored.

In any event, yeah, I think Hall’s miscue got lost in the shuffle.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 16, 2008 5:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the flashpoint for anger in this case was the fact that Dillon threw the ball like an eight-year-old. It’s not necessarily that Braun would have done any better, just that the sub got tested right away and failed rather spectacularly. I’m all for reasoned and measured discussion-after all, why else would I have a water bear as my avatar?-but there also needs to be some allowance for venting. I’m not justifying generally ire over a specific play in some sort of systematic complaint, though. No, Braun probably wouldn’t have made the throw either.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Apr 16, 2008 7:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But, Gabe Gross???

I agree with your assertion that the batting order doesn’t make much difference, but it does make some difference. As long as it does, isn’t it incumbent upon the manager to construct the batting order in the best possible way? A tenet that sabermetrics has taught us is the you should never bat a weak hitter in the second spot. Gabe Gross went into last night’s game batting .111 (and came out batting .091). He was the worst possible choice for that spot in the order.

by Scott Segrin on Apr 16, 2008 1:49 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Gabe Gross

is not a .111 hitter. another tenet of sabermetrics.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Apr 16, 2008 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If the original lineup

was to give Braun the night off and have Kapler play, why then do you still give Braun the night off after Kapler needs the night off due to injury? Wouldn’t the wiser move have been to plug Braun back into left field and only have one below average player in the first four of the batting order? That to me is the confusing thing. It’s like the no-hitter all over again.

by Getting Yosted on Apr 16, 2008 2:09 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Hmm...good point.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 16, 2008 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's an awful lot of doom & gloom

on all the Brewer blogs that I visit today, and it just strikes me as odd. These Brewers are 4-2 at home and 4-3 on the road, sample size be damned. They’ve already won 2 of 2 road series this year, when last year they only won 9 out of 26. So many people always throw out the ”...just win 2/3rds of your home games and 1/2 your roadies, and you’ll be fine!” line as a recipe for success. Well, so far they’ve done just that and people are still uneasy. Aside from the Giants, they’ve beaten almost exclusively teams that I would call “playoff caliber”. They’ve also done all of this while the offense is struggling short of Kendall and recently Hart. When the offense finds its groove & when Cameron & Gallardo return I would be pretty psyched about the wins that this team is capable of piling up. There’s good times ahead…...

(Deep Breath…....I feel Better….Go Brewers!)

I swear to God I think I could hit a Matt Wise changeup......

by Adam P on Apr 16, 2008 2:15 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Nicely put.

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 16, 2008 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The lineup is fine

I agree that the lineups are far less important than the execution.

Some of the grumbling will cease when Cameron gets settled in. I think the pitcher at #8 is a pretty minor thing.

I’d prefer to see Braun at #3 with his better OBP. I’d also rather see Hart at #5, but that is all pretty minor.

Basically if the Crew was hitting better, we wouldn’t be complaining (as much).

by grant76 on Apr 16, 2008 2:23 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I like to see Dillon getting some time

He hit the ball on the barrell of the bat three times and walked the other time. And you know, Gross is a lefty and he’s due. I don’t have a problem with Braun getting a day off, but I don’t like seeing the tension. Bush had kind of a swipe at Maddux as well.

by ol Pete on Apr 16, 2008 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's my fault

for last night. I don’t think they have won on my birthday since the Vina days. I will try not to age anymore.

by Braunstalker on Apr 16, 2008 2:25 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Bored

I’ve discovered that I’m bored with the Brewers. Yost’s tinkering, and daring the team to fail just don’t excite me any more. I just don’t care to watch a game pitched by Dave Bush, with the most at-bats going to Gabe Gross and Joe Dillon (after Weeks, of course), and with Brian Shouse trying to get Albert Pujols out to end the inning. Well, Shousie got ‘er done, but clearly the lineup wasn’t up to generating any runs, so it didn’t matter.

I stop what I’m doing when Bill Hall comes up to bat. I stopped walking through AT&T Park last week when I noticed Manny Ramirez was up to bat on one of the TVs. I will make the time to watch Ben Sheets pitch a game. Whenever I travel to a baseball town, I try to get tickets to a game. I love baseball, and I don’t really care to watch the Brewers now.

Ned’s love and glorification of mediocre players has finally taken its toll on me. If the Brewers aren’t going to put forth their best effort every night, then why the hell should I care if they win or not?

by Marty McSuperFly on Apr 16, 2008 2:25 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

good post

Again, from a Cardinal outsider but I agree. The lineup means very little in the end. It just doesn’t. Players need to make plays—bottom line.

A friend and I laugh about Cardinal fans who criticize and hate LaRussa. One group will argue point A, saying that B would have worked. Then a different group later would argue point B saying A would work.

Of course they don’t argue with each other—as long as it’s anti LaRussa and second guessing its cool :)

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Apr 16, 2008 2:29 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

when I cruise around Cards blogs and forums

Tony seems pretty popular.

If you want to see tens of thousands of posts about lineups, venture into Cubs world (if you dare).

by ol Pete on Apr 16, 2008 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cub land had that brawl

a couple of years ago over whether Dusty Baker sucked, or Dusty Baker really sucked.

by Braunstalker on Apr 16, 2008 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is that part of the "fun"?

Seems to be, and not just in baseball.

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 16, 2008 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think a lot of it...

Is that, especially when Capuano and Bush were both in the rotation, there’s an incredible sense of impending doom. Even on the days they’re pitching well, all of a sudden the wheels can just fall off, while Ned sits in the dugout with a blank look on his face the same way Ray Rhodes used to just watch the Packers implode.

I don’t deny that Bush got out of a tough spot last night. And he pitched one more successful inning than I thought he was good for. But his track record suggests neither of those things will happen consistently. Would McClung have been better? Maybe, maybe not. But we know where the road leads when Bush is left in too long: right down the middle, and slower than average. And management chose to stick with that anyway.

On the days when I get really frustrated, it feels like Ned is holding one dice in his hand, turns to all of us and says “I’ve got a hunch: This throw’s going to be a 6.” One in six times he’s right, but that doesn’t change the fact that his prediction was dead-set against the most likely result. Last night was the one in six: the night Bush had his implosion inning, then came back and pitched effectively past five innings.

Ned sits closer to games than I do. He’s at the park way more often and he doesn’t have a pesky day job to work around. So I know he sees what I’m seeing. He likely sees it better than I do. That’s why it’s infuriating when his logic seems to boggle the mind of entire rooms of seemingly intelligent people.

With that said, I think this year has been an improvement over last year. I don’t think management is killing this team right now, the way it has in the past. But Dave Bush’s tightrope-walking starts are still infuriating to watch.

by KLSnow on Apr 16, 2008 3:53 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Come on now.

Ray Rhodes didn’t just stand there with a blank look on his face when the Packers imploded.

He’d chew gum vigorously with a blank look on his face while the Packers imploded. Then in the press conference after the game he’d say “we’ll get that fixed, I promise you that” every time a reporter pointed out why the Packers imploded. It’s not his fault the vigorous gum chewing didn’t work. And at least he didn’t tuck his play card down the front of his pants the way Sherman used to…. shudder….

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 16, 2008 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Balanced vs. Knee Jerk

Hmmm I wonder what camp I fall in ;) lol

Ned Yost is Satan and he hates us that is why he keeps playing his Cabana boy Gabe Gross. Yes Gabe makes a great fruity drink with an umbrella but right now he cannot buy a hit.

Oh yeah for sure I am in the Knee Jerk camp, One has to be true to oneself ;)

Its all about the Bullpen this season that is the key.

by WSB Chris on Apr 16, 2008 5:47 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

This team is built

To be managed in a knee jerk fashion, in a way.

Take last night, for example. Dave Bush was at the end of his rope. The question up to now has been, would McClung have done better? Who knows. But because of the off day, here’s our bullpen:

McClung (six days rest)
Turnbow (five days rest)
Shouse (two days rest)
Torres (two days rest)
Mota (two days rest)
Riske (four days rest)
Gagne (two days rest)

Now, I know you can’t use them all in the same game, and I know you need to save pitchers in case of extra innings, but is there any doubt the Brewers could’ve gotten four effective innings out of these seven guys? If Bush struggles in the 5th, pull him before the sixth. If McClung struggles, pull him too, and so on. There’s too much depth on this team to stick with someone who’s ineffective.

by KLSnow on Apr 16, 2008 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

second-guessing = great fun

I agree that people always assume that the road not taken would’ve turned out smoother, and that’s not very level-headed. But I’m not sure what the fun in being level-headed is. None of us will ever be a big league manager, and complaining about moves, especially during a loss is about the closest will ever get. An when this race may very well wind up coming down to a game or two, even little things can matter.

I didn’t think that Bush pitched poorly yesterday. That’s probably unfortunate. Before the game, I was actually hoping he’d pitch poorly, but that we’d put up a lot of runs to still get the win. IMO, Bush gets too much credit because he’s won a fair number of games with the team, and it seems like he should be a better pitcher if he could get over the humpe. I agree that he’s proven, but he’s proven mediocre. I’d rather see what’s behind door number three with Parra and Villanueva.

by keephopealive on Apr 16, 2008 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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