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Pre-Series Cardinals Thoughts

The Cardinals are 12-7, which has to qualify as one of the bigger surprises in the early going.  I don't think it's going to last, but I also think that many pundits (probably including myself, though I don't think I ever published a pre-season prediction) underestimated this team in the spring.

I don't have any important points to make, but St. Louis is an interesting team, and I thought I'd poke around and see what factoids I could find:

  • Of the six pitchers who have started games for the Cards so far this year, five of them--everybody but Lohse--have spent substantial time in the majors as relievers.  Wainwright was always slated to become a starter, but everybody else has been an experiment of some sort or other. 
  • On that subject, I don't think you can give Dave Duncan enough credit.  It must be frustrating for a team like the Reds to watch Duncan, year in and year out, take a couple of guys making the minimum and turn them into league-average-or-better 10 game winners.  I certainly wouldn't mind if Jeff Weaver skipped extended spring training and did a few coaching sessions with Duncan before making an appearance for the Brewers.
  • So far, the Cards are a very strong on-base team.  Their team OBP is .365, a very close second to the Cubs at .366.  Pujols is no surprise, and we saw the kind of ridiculous start Ryan Ludwick is having, but...Cesar Izturis and Adam Kennedy above .340?  Really, Ankiel and Molina are the only sub-par OBP guys getting playing time.
  • During the series in St. Louis, I heard from a few different angles that Jason Isringhausen might be the best closer in the division.  I guess you can make the argument, but at this point, it's more because the competition is in such flux than because of his dominance.  I haven't been sold on Izzy for a couple of  years, and I continue to be skeptical.  Sure, he'll rack up 35 saves (just like Gagne will), but I don't think he'll be the shutdown guy of 3-5 years ago.
  • Are the Cards still a stellar defensive team?  I don't know.  Molina and Pujols are great, and Izturis has that reputation, but Glaus instead of Rolen is a huge step down, and Edmonds is gone, too.  Certainly Chris Duncan is not a strong fielder in left, and while Ankiel is still something of an unknown quantity (remember, arms get talked about, but range matters more in the long run) in center, I think it's safe to assume he won't be gold glove-worthy in his first year.  One approximation we can use is Defensive Efficiency, which measures the number of batted balls that turn into outs.  The Cards are currently at .702, which is a little below average.  (The Brewers are at .718, so take that for what it's worth.)
  • St. Louis has now played their entire season series with the Giants, and lost four out of seven.  That's not an endorsement of their playoff chances.  True, two of those losses came at the hands of Tim Lincecum, but the other two were thanks to Kevin Correia and Jonathan Sanchez.  I'm not going to pretend that I can tell a team's chances from a few games against one opponent, but...3-4 against San Fran?
  • I mentioned yesterday that teams tend to revert to average in extra inning games; the same is true in one-run games.  The Cards have played five one-run games, and won four of them.  Perhaps they'll lose one or two in Milwaukee.

0 recs  |  Comment 16 comments

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Looking past the 2 game Cards series,

It looks like we got some LHP’s coming up. Moyer, Hamels, and Olsen Wed.-Fri. Three southpaws in a row should be just what this team needs right now. If they can’t get it going then I am going to start to get a little worried….....

I swear to God I think I could hit a Matt Wise changeup......

by Adam P on Apr 21, 2008 2:45 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

thanks Jeff

For the preview. May I add my Cardinal biased thoughts—I am glad to see the Birds in person the next two nights.

The OBP stuff is too high for STL right now. No way does Izturis keep it up, ditto for Kennedy. Can Skippy Schumaker keep it up? I’m more inclined to say yes to him than to the other guys.

Defensively-outside of the Rolen/Glaus downgrade the Cardinals are better everywhere else. Anyone who watched Edmonds last year saw how bad he was. Right now Ankiel is a better defensive CF’er than Edmonds. Not 3 years ago Edmonds-right now Edmonds. Schumaker is pretty good in right and he has a great arm. Izturis is a clear upgrade over Eckstein.

On the closer front—I don’t know. All the guys in the Central are iffy. I wouldn’t put Izzy first, but he certainly has the longest/most consistent track record of all the NL Central guys.

May I ask some Brewer questions? One—will the roof be open? Is there a set temperature that they keep it open or is it random? How often that thing is closed drives me nuts.

Rickie Weeks—at what point do Brewer fans worry about him? Does he need to cut down his swing? It works for Gary Sheffield but he hits .320 and a bunch of HR’s.

Why doesn’t Ned just keep Villanueva and Parra and the rotation and be done with it? As a Cardinal fan I like seeing starts by Bush, etc.

The Jeff Suppan signing was bad—and getting worse. Or am I wrong?

Is there any concern about “ego’s” in the clubhouse? This is TOTALLY anecdotal, but I just dont like the vibe I get from the young Brewers. Maybe I am looking for a flaw—who knows.

Anyway, I will take a split and run. I like us with Wainwright tonight and I like that we have Tony LaRussa and you have Ned. That certainly helps.

Enjoy the game.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Apr 21, 2008 2:50 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Are you from BTF?

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Apr 21, 2008 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

no

Sorry.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Apr 21, 2008 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

RE: Suppan

At least as of right now, Soup would be 3-0 if Shouse hadn’t given up a home run and Gagne hadn’t given up a home run. He was only really lit up against the Mets, a game which the Brewers still won. His WHIP is down a little a bit, though his K/BB is skewing a bit towards walks. Then again, it seems Soup has pitched well in April for a while, so these can all change.

by drezdn on Apr 21, 2008 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Two very off-the-cuff and inexpert opinions:

I still like the Suppan signing. He’s not a #1 or anything, but he eats up innings and takes the ball ever 5 days, which is a big deal when your #1 guy is Sheets. He’ll also look less and less overpaid with each offseason. I think some people’s expectations for him were out of whack, which has caused some disappointment among some fans, but he’s performing about where rational expectations should have put him.

As for your signature, historically (and even now) most suburbs crop up on old farmland, where there weren’t many trees to begin wth.

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 21, 2008 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

and then there's the suburb I grew up in

where they cut down enough trees to make room for the houses, but left way more of them than any homeowner sitting on half an acre of land would ever want.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 21, 2008 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

re: the quote

I’m not saying I believe it—I just saw it on a bumper sticker and thought it was funny.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Apr 21, 2008 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

we have a firm stance here

you need to stand behind your signature 100%.

For instance, I think everything would be better with cheese.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 21, 2008 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

ha

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 21, 2008 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

the real value of Suppan

Sure, Suppan may only be performing like a weakish #3 or a good #4 in the rotation, but as you’re saying he eats up innings, i.e. he manages to perform like a #3 or #4 guy all season long. Dave Bush looks like a #3 at times too; even somebody like Wes Obermueller looked like a #3 in his good stretches, it just never lasts.

And as far as I recall that’s exactly what Melvin said he was signing Suppan for, as a stabilizer for the rotation. Can’t blame the club for fans’ thinking that they were getting a second ace in Suppan. Heck, compared to somebody like Zito the Suppan contract looks eminently reasonable.

by Zeyes on Apr 21, 2008 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Weeks and Suppan

Rickie Weeks has not gotten a lot of criticism this year. His defense is no longer a glaring problem, and even though batting average has been bad, his ops has been healthy the last two years (over.360). His ability to reliably steal, and occasional pop, has mitigated to some degree his poor batttinga average and propensity for strikeouts.

I’ve never liked the Suppan deal, but like others, I’ve accepted it, and haven’t thought of him as a bust, just a mediocre pitcher that we payed too much for. The $10 million that Gagne got has overshadowed the $10 million that Suppan gets. The fact that Suppan is a workhorse helps. You kind of know that every five days he’ll throw 6 innings and give up 3 runs with a few walks and a few strikeouts.

A question back to you: Does Weaver have anything left, and was there any talk of St Louis picking him back up?

by grant76 on Apr 21, 2008 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

re: Weaver

Heck, I don’t know. He was good for about three weeks in 2006 and then in the postseason. I can’t imagine him having much left. I credited him to another Duncan miracle job. I can’t see how he is better than Bush, Parra, Villanueva, etc. I always personally liked him so I was kinda biased towards him.

I would say that if the Brewers are going to need the Dream Weaver to help them get to the playoffs in August/September then they will be in bad shape. It was a low risk move though so it certainly can’t hurt. He was great in Game 5 of the 2006 World Series so he has a special place in my heart there :)

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Apr 21, 2008 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Isheringingthehouse – he looks good, but nothing special. Maybe that’s all you need.

the roof – its a mystery to me

Villy, Parra, and Bush – Ned Yost loves Bush so much that I think they may be living together. He also has a fanatical devotion among a sizable portion of the fanbase. It’s a mystery to me. Let me try this: he’s won 12 games twice as a fifth starter and “earned” a spot in the rotation, and he also has a historically good K/9 and BB/9. Are you sold?

Suppan – I didn’t think it was a great signing but he has looked good this year

Egos in the clubhouse – who do you think might be having problems, my impression is none of them. It looks like a bunch of easy going guys. What about your clubhouse? You’ve got a guy, Pujols, who is the pet of a manager who comes off as a bitter hateful drunk. He is either frowning or frowning heavily. He’s blatantly dishonest. His idea for this year was to bring in Bonds – hey maybe you can still do that. He almost seems as if he likes the idea of guys using steroids.

by ol Pete on Apr 21, 2008 11:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hah, fanatical

Since you like wins so much, your favorite Claudio Vargas has won 12 games once as a fifth starter and you seem(ed) ready to place him the #3 (or higher) in the rotation. Instead, he’s still ETA unknown to AAA New Orleans.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 21, 2008 11:26 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

roof closure

yes, travesty.

it seems to be the rules are:
predicted 65+ at the end of the game
0% chance of precipitation.

I’d prefer the roof to be open for anything over 50 degrees, but the roof is really there for rain, and people who are afraid to sit outside… so you get what you get…

Funny thing is, i’ve been to night games where the game time temp was ~55 and the roof was open. I’ve sent an e-mail or two over the years and never got any answers. i’m assuming they were keeping the ‘rules’ a secret for the nights when they were afraid to close to roof (cause it was broken and might get stuck.)

i think MLB needs a retractable roof policy, cause the ballpark plays differently with it open/closed and it could be an unfair home advantage.

All that said, i cannot believe new stadiums get built without retractable roofs. the things probably pay for themselves in one season.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Apr 22, 2008 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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