Game Thread #19: Cardinals (12-7) at Brewers (11-7)

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 21, 2008 4:04 PM CDT in Game Threads

I haven't read any official announcements as to who is in or out of the starting rotation, but for tonight anyway, it appears that Villanueva's spot is safe. Maybe that means Ned is trying to keep his main guys on a regular schedule; maybe it means Bush is out of the rotation. Whatever it means, we have Carlos to look forward to tonight, and he's taking on Adam Wainwright.

Tom H has the lineups, and there are no surprises. With a righty on the mound, Gross is in there again. I know some of you are apoplectic about all the playing time Gross has gotten, but he does have a .763 career OPS against righties, while Kapler's OPS vRH is .724. It's not a slam-dunk decision either way, but there's no reason to think that just because Gross is off to a rough start (in all of 44 PAs) means that his career is over and the Brewers are handicapped every time he's in the lineup.

While you're waiting for the game to start, give KLSnow some feedback as to who the AL award winners are up to this point. So far we've got a grand total of three votes, including his and mine.

Finally, the project-a-tron likes our chances back at Miller Park:

Brewers 5.1
Cardinals 4.65
Brewers WinExp: 58%

It didn't look that way in the last series, but I still maintain that the bottom of the Cardinals lineup (Molina/Kennedy/pitcher/Izturis) could be brutal. Let's hope Villanueva got that memo.

Go Brewers!

0 recs | Comment 436 comments

Read Related

Story-email Email | Print |

Comments

a request to further my laziness

Can the starting time be included in the game thread headlines, please? :)

by Zeyes on Apr 21, 2008 4:41 PM CDT 0 recs

i'll take it under consideration :)

for the slightly less lazy, click on the ‘schedule’ link under the top banner, and there’s a list of all 2008 games + start times.

tonight it’s 7:05 CT.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 21, 2008 4:54 PM CDT up 0 recs

nevermind

Just noticed that nifty automated (?) game preview in the right-hand sidebar which has the start time. I really need to spend more time checking out all the widgets on the new site version.

by Zeyes on Apr 21, 2008 5:36 PM CDT up 0 recs

me too :)

there are more that I haven’t activated or included yet.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 21, 2008 6:14 PM CDT up 0 recs

Die GAGne Die

sorry still not quite over yesterdays game hopefully by first pitch I will be able to control my Die GAGne Die tick

7 more games and we will be asking Gabe Gross Who? Wasn’t he Ned Yost Cabana Boy last season ;)

Its all about the Bullpen this season that is the key.

by WSB Chris on Apr 21, 2008 4:45 PM CDT 0 recs

But what would we do with only 13 pitchers?

by SunglassesAtNight on Apr 21, 2008 5:34 PM CDT up 0 recs

Actually

I’m still not too pissed about the Gagne signing. I know the blown saves are killers, but I still have a little bit of faith. The one that really kills me is the home run to corey patterson. Coery patterson is a fastball hitter and nothing else. As for the season opener, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt since there was bad weather and Kerry Wood also gave up 3 that inning. Last nights, I think that falls under the Yosting category. I’m proceding with caution at this point, but I’m not at the death wishes stage yet

by SunglassesAtNight on Apr 21, 2008 5:46 PM CDT up 0 recs

Breaking up is hard to do

If Bushie is out of the rotation, Ned can console himself with two more weeks of Gross. After that, he’ll be very cranky.

What are the odds of Gallardo and Gross being swapped in the batting order his next start? Gross in 2007, 7 HRs in 183 AB; YoGa had 2 HRs in 40 AB and a higher Slugging % by 40 points. Everyone keep that in mind the next time we hear that Gross is on the bench to provide ‘pop’. It isn’t HRs they are talking about, Gross is the designated guy to run back to the dressing room and grab a soda for Prince.

by Getting Yosted on Apr 21, 2008 5:00 PM CDT 0 recs

Slow start

Do you mean to say that Gross is off to a rough start in 2008, or for his whole career? It’s tough to remember a time when he played well.

by Marty McSuperFly on Apr 21, 2008 5:24 PM CDT 0 recs

Didn't have a spring training when he hit like 12 homers for the Jays?

by brewfan2 on Apr 21, 2008 5:25 PM CDT up 0 recs

He also got off to a quick start last year, along with TBGH and Jenks, if memory serves.

Then he returned to general suckiness, er, grittiness.

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 21, 2008 6:12 PM CDT up 0 recs

Don't you remember

The pinch-hit home run he had in his first at-bat as a Brewer? That sort of thing gets/got people excited about Mike Rivera, too.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 21, 2008 7:09 PM CDT up 0 recs

I'm really getting sick of Gabe Gross

Does anybody know when we’ll get Tony Gwynn or Gabe Kapler back? I keep hearing soon, but I’m losing my patience

by SunglassesAtNight on Apr 21, 2008 5:35 PM CDT 0 recs

Just keep telling yourself he's do for a regression to the mean. He's just not this bad.

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 21, 2008 6:13 PM CDT up 0 recs

I meant due, dammit.

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 21, 2008 6:13 PM CDT up 0 recs

Win Expectancy

58%+ seems a little high to me. :)

I run my simulator 3000 times for every NL West game and compare results to LV Hilton Sports Book (they are 1.6% ahead at the moment). I ran your game and looked at the Vegas odds to compare to your 58% number. Here is what I got.

Win Expectancy:
LV Hilton SB: Brewers 50.98%
My Simulator: Cardinals ~52%

Good luck,
vr, Xeifrank

by Xeifrank on Apr 21, 2008 6:18 PM CDT 0 recs

I don't know what stats you're using

But based on ZiPS projections, it’s pretty clear how it comes out that way. ZiPS has Villanueva as not much worse than Wainwright and the Milwaukee bullpen a smidge better than the Cards.

The offense is the big diff … with tonight’s lineups, I have the following (against average right-handed competition):
Brewers 5.09
Cards 4.47

I’m guessing the difference boils down to estimates of Villanueva.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 21, 2008 6:32 PM CDT up 0 recs

Now that I look, though...

it’s more than just Villy. In order to get a 50/50 game, keeping all other assumptions the same, I need Villy’s RA to go up to about 6.50.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 21, 2008 6:37 PM CDT up 0 recs

Stat fight Stat fight

Everyone man your slide rules remember the rules no pulling of ties no knocking glasses off and above all no touching of pocket protectors ;)

I kid because well I am not in the same room with Jeff so he cannot hit me

Its all about the Bullpen this season that is the key.

by WSB Chris on Apr 21, 2008 6:38 PM CDT up 0 recs

My mistake

I had the Cardinals as the home team and stats adjusted to their home park. I am re-running the sim and won’t get a whole lot of samples in before I take off. As it stands now after 500 games the Brewers are winning around 55% of them. :)
vr, Xeifrank

by Xeifrank on Apr 21, 2008 6:41 PM CDT up 0 recs

1000 samples

Brewers 52.6%
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Apr 21, 2008 6:57 PM CDT up 0 recs

Villy

Depending on how much stock you put in the 2008 PITCHf/x data it appears Carlos has lost a little off his fastball from last year. That is causing a much smaller gap between his fastball and his change (down to an alarming small 6 MPH). It will be interesting to see if he can get the fastball in the low 90’s this start.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 21, 2008 7:06 PM CDT 0 recs

He is rockin a pretty kick-a mustache tonight

by brewfan2 on Apr 21, 2008 7:08 PM CDT up 0 recs

looks like he belongs in a Bogart film

by ol Pete on Apr 21, 2008 7:10 PM CDT up 0 recs

I hope

the mustache offsets the slower fastball.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 21, 2008 7:11 PM CDT up 0 recs

I think that's a guarantee

by brewfan2 on Apr 21, 2008 7:12 PM CDT up 0 recs

Alright!

mlb.tv is giving me the Brewers feed … so no Mad Hungarian for me.

I’ll try not to be whining about Rock by the 5th inning.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 21, 2008 7:07 PM CDT 0 recs

At least we have 14 pitchers

by brewfan2 on Apr 21, 2008 7:13 PM CDT 0 recs

BA just mentioned the 89 walks for the cards

For a team without much power that is a huge total so far. Card fans have to be loving that as they really need the offense.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 21, 2008 7:13 PM CDT 0 recs

Whew

They were also just talking about Hamels coming in Wednesday. That should be an interesting matchup with our lefty mashing group.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 21, 2008 7:17 PM CDT 0 recs

Bush against Hamels

that may be a mismatch

Good time for Prince's second homer

by molitorfan on Apr 21, 2008 7:18 PM CDT up 0 recs

Oh brother,

you just really bummed me out – we would’ve had Sheets v Hamels to look forward to?!

by 400metres on Apr 21, 2008 7:23 PM CDT up 0 recs

damn

25 pitches in the first. Carlos better start getting that pitch count down so that he can last deeper into his starts

by Oakland Brewer Fan on Apr 21, 2008 7:17 PM CDT 0 recs

Thats what 14 pitchers are for ;)

Can't pitch Gagne in rain. He’s like the B-2 bomber of baseball.--TheJay

by verno329 on Apr 21, 2008 7:19 PM CDT up 0 recs

don't worry

Ned’ll put Gagne in again tonight. You know, to help him forget what happened last night…

by Oakland Brewer Fan on Apr 21, 2008 7:22 PM CDT up 0 recs

Apparently Ned said that he's available

by brewfan2 on Apr 21, 2008 7:25 PM CDT up 0 recs

That was close

I’d prefer if it kept it a little less interesting

Can't pitch Gagne in rain. He’s like the B-2 bomber of baseball.--TheJay

by verno329 on Apr 21, 2008 7:18 PM CDT 0 recs

Im predicting a huge night for Rickie

Huge for him at least…1 for 4

by brewfan2 on Apr 21, 2008 7:18 PM CDT 0 recs

Or

0-2 with a BB and a HBP

by 400metres on Apr 21, 2008 7:19 PM CDT up 0 recs

I'll take that.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 21, 2008 7:19 PM CDT up 0 recs

Cubs up 2-0

At least they are starting to play some better teams but man I just can’t wait until they hit the road.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 21, 2008 7:24 PM CDT 0 recs

That comes in September

They already filed a formal protest because of the schedule.

by brewfan2 on Apr 21, 2008 7:26 PM CDT up 0 recs

today one topic of discussion on Chicago radio was whether the better play was due to the lack of crazy Al.

by ol Pete on Apr 21, 2008 7:27 PM CDT up 0 recs

Lineup

It’s sad when your lineup is hitting a combined .228 (.302 OBP) coming into the game.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 21, 2008 7:25 PM CDT 0 recs

that isolated patience

isn’t bad…

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 21, 2008 7:26 PM CDT up 0 recs

agreed

but when I see our record after seeing that stat I feel a little better. Once we start hitting we should be fine

Can't pitch Gagne in rain. He’s like the B-2 bomber of baseball.--TheJay

by verno329 on Apr 21, 2008 7:26 PM CDT up 0 recs

11-7

makes me feel better about that avg.

by brewfan2 on Apr 21, 2008 7:26 PM CDT up 0 recs

Yea,

it seems like the only time I can remember this team putting it all together was early and mid-last season and boy were they scary good.

Frankly, I would take the more consistent approach of late – relying on pitching on timely hitting over the 10-8 losses that prevailed a couple of years ago.

by 400metres on Apr 21, 2008 7:30 PM CDT up 0 recs

If anyone's curious

The BABIP of the lineup out there so far is .259

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 21, 2008 7:27 PM CDT up 0 recs

What's typical?

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 21, 2008 7:28 PM CDT up 0 recs

.300ish

league average so far this year is a bit lower.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 21, 2008 7:28 PM CDT up 0 recs

The NL average this year is .287 – it’s usually around .300

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 21, 2008 7:29 PM CDT up 0 recs

is that for the Brewers?

by ol Pete on Apr 21, 2008 7:28 PM CDT up 0 recs

Yes

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 21, 2008 7:29 PM CDT up 0 recs

I wonder

What kind of money Sheets will get on the market if he has a good year but only makes 25 starts this year?

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 21, 2008 7:26 PM CDT 0 recs

if he decided to go that route

imagine what kind of deal Ben could get if he made it known he wanted an incentive laden deal. What would the Yanks or Sox guarantee for, say, 30 starts?

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 21, 2008 7:28 PM CDT up 0 recs