Game Thread #20: Cardinals (13-7) at Brewers (11-8)
The matchup is Manny Parra versus Kyle Lohse, who--come on, now--really can't be that good. Right?
Tom H has the lineups, and I'm sorry, but I'm going to have to go on a little rant. Tom says:
Utility infielder Craig Counsell is starting at shortstop today in place of slumping J.J. Hardy as the Brewers try to salvage a split of their two-game series against St. Louis at Miller Park.
Hardy is one of many hitters in the lineup unable to get going at the plate for the Brewers, with a .214 batting average.
I'm going to ignore the "salvage a split" business...we're talking two games. We'll survive. But..."slumping?" "Unable to get going?" Are we talking about the same guy? I usually don't pay attention to short-term trends, but since you mentioned it: JJ went 3-5 two days ago, and has six hits (including a homer) in the last four games. Selective endpoints, sure, but if you think JJ is slumping at the moment, your sample size is...yesterday. You can tinker with your own endpoints here.
Here's the BR Game Preview. Project-a-tron is pissed about last night, but I managed to talk it into giving me some numbers for today:
- Brewers 5.5
- Cards 4.9
- Brewers WinExp: 59%
Let's go Crew!
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Two game series
Does it seem like the Brewers have a lot of 2 game series this year?
by drezdn on Apr 22, 2008 10:25 AM CDT 0 recs
Looking at Lohse splits
His BABIP is .253
But at home it’s .203 (3 games) vs.
.400 away.
by drezdn on Apr 22, 2008 10:29 AM CDT 0 recs
as a Cardinal
fan I would rather see Hardy in the lineup. Friggin Counsell always kills us. I predict a Brewer victory as Mr. Lohse comes back to earth. Brewers win 6-4.
I am glad to see Ankiel have the day off. He has been struggling.
SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.
by beanocook on Apr 22, 2008 10:43 AM CDT 0 recs
Fun with Stats
In 13 AB vs. Lohse, Counsell has 7 hits, 1 HR, 1 2B, 1 3B and a .538 average.
On the downside, he hasn’t got a single hit at home yet this year.
by drezdn on
Apr 22, 2008 11:51 AM CDT
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Catchers
The Phillies need to sign Alberto Castillo and start him on Thursday so we can face ex-Royals backup catchers in three consecutive series.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Apr 22, 2008 11:09 AM CDT 0 recs
Lohse
Throws almost identical stuff to Wainwright. In fact Wainwright is the 6th best comp as far as stuff goes to Lohse this year and was on Lohse’s list last year too. Hopefully the crew can take advantage of that since the game plan against the Brewers batters should be the same.
by dixieflatline on Apr 22, 2008 11:39 AM CDT 0 recs
i would like a solid game offensively
if not today, then certainly when we face 3 straight lefties in the coming days
"They're trying to make me the escape goat"-Michael Scott
by dux2bux on Apr 22, 2008 11:47 AM CDT 0 recs
Hardy Day Off
No big deal on the day off, but Tom H talked a bit out of his ass on the whole slumping topic.
by Lake County on Apr 22, 2008 11:57 AM CDT 0 recs
i would rather have given weeks the day off maybe
"They're trying to make me the escape goat"-Michael Scott
by dux2bux on Apr 22, 2008 12:00 PM CDT 0 recs
Well...
He did have a relatively good game yesterday.
by Lake County on
Apr 22, 2008 12:01 PM CDT
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With Counsell's stats so far this year
He actually hits better with no one on base and no outs, and has hit .400 in the 1 spot. So it does make sense.
(Small Sample, I know)
by drezdn on
Apr 22, 2008 12:02 PM CDT
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"Best way to settle down a young pitcher is to get an early lead"
...in the bathroom stall with Trenni.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Apr 22, 2008 12:03 PM CDT 0 recs
Not that this is a shock but
I was looking up and down the Cards lineup to see how they might fair against Parra’s excellent curve and noticed that basically none of the Cardinal batters are swinging at balls out of the zone. Not even Izturis. Why can’t our guys do that?
Parra is going to have to get his curve over for a strike if he is going to be effective today.
by dixieflatline on Apr 22, 2008 12:07 PM CDT 0 recs
This is amazing
Looking at Turnbow’s splits from 2007, he went 3-1 to 16 different batters. Gave up a .000 batting average but a .812 OBP.
But dude is simply unhittable once he has two strikes on a batter.
by Getting Yosted on Apr 22, 2008 12:08 PM CDT 0 recs
Well, technically, he's unhittable after 3-1 too.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Apr 22, 2008 12:10 PM CDT
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Yes, but
You got to get that far into the count!
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
by 80badger on
Apr 22, 2008 12:11 PM CDT
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Win Expectancy
Thanks for posting the lineups. I ran today’s lineups 3000 times into my simulator and it listed the Brewers win expectancy today at 55.53%. Las Vegas Hilton Sports Books has it at 53.49%. My simulator uses 2008 ZIPS Projections as data input, it adjusts for park factors, lefty/righty splits, pitchers tiring (pitch counts), has an algorithm for when to replace a pitcher which also takes into account the leverage index, for when to bring in your best relief pitchers… among many other things.
vr, Xeifrank
by Xeifrank on Apr 22, 2008 12:08 PM CDT 0 recs
very respectfully?
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Apr 22, 2008 12:12 PM CDT
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And BA and Rock starting early
Parra has to go deep today. We just got three straight starts were the starts have gone 7 innings and we are carrying 14 pitchers!
by dixieflatline on Apr 22, 2008 12:08 PM CDT 0 recs
Maybe
their point is that if Parra goes deep it takes Yost out of the equation for a longer period of time??!!
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
by 80badger on
Apr 22, 2008 12:10 PM CDT
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I swear to God, I will snap the next time I hear someone say that!!!!
As of this morning, Brewer relievers have thrown 59.1 innings in 2008. That is the 2nd lowest total in the NL. That’s the 2nd lowest total with 8 relievers in the bullpen remember to divide that time. The Brewer bullpen also ranks near the middle in ERA, and it ranks 2nd in the NL in saves with 8 total behind ST. Louis with 9. Overall, you’d have to say that’s pretty good. The bullpen ain’t the problem, though Turnbow is ONE problem.
Also, Brewer starters rank #6 out of 16 NL teams for innings pitched with a total of 112 innings so far. Sounds like they are going pretty deep to me. Also, those starters have a pretty decent ERA of around 4.00 so far which puts them right in the middle of the NL at #8. If the pen is pitching few innings with a good ERA, and the starters are throwing an above average number of innings with a decent ERA, I’d say our group of VERY young starters have done an admirable job so far.
The last two games Yovanni & Villy combined to go 14 innings and give up…what….3 runs? The Crew went 0-2 in those starts. (I’m aware of the small sample size). They don’t need to go deeper in games, they need to score more in games.
I swear to God I think I could hit a Matt Wise changeup......
by Adam P on
Apr 22, 2008 12:25 PM CDT
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So
Was it just me, or was every ball hit right at Counsell this inning?
by drezdn on Apr 22, 2008 12:12 PM CDT 0 recs
first whiff of the game for FSN
Pujols hits a ball… viewers denied
by ol Pete on Apr 22, 2008 12:12 PM CDT 0 recs
Nice catch by Counsell
One thing that just hasn’t gotten enough attention this year is the amazing turn around with the Brewers defense. Their team RZR is above average, their plus/minus is tied for 4th best in the NL, and their outfield RZR is at an amazing .934. With Gross playing a lot of center and some “interesting” routes by Braun in left I am as shocked as you probably are.
by dixieflatline on Apr 22, 2008 12:13 PM CDT 0 recs
That got scored a triple last night for Hart?
Bogus
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Apr 22, 2008 12:17 PM CDT 0 recs
That was an awful call
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Apr 22, 2008 12:17 PM CDT 0 recs
Chad Fairchild
lookee, here’s a game with five ejections with Chad behind the plate
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2008_03_12_nyamlb_tbamlb_1
by ol Pete on
Apr 22, 2008 12:24 PM CDT
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Is that the game where the Ray’s player slid into the catcher.
by drezdn on
Apr 22, 2008 12:27 PM CDT
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Only one by Fairchild
I think it was because he thought the Yankees pitcher was throwing at a Rays hitter in retaliation for running into their catcher a few games previously. The rest of the ejections stemmed from Shelley Duncan sliding high into Akinori Iwamura at second base and Jonny Gomes running in from right field to blindside Duncan, sparking a brawl.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on
Apr 22, 2008 12:31 PM CDT
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Video
Of the Duncan slide and Gomes hit can be found here.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on
Apr 22, 2008 12:35 PM CDT
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2-out magic?
Prince with his first hit in the series. Here’s to hoping this comes to fruition.
by Et tu Brewte on Apr 22, 2008 12:19 PM CDT 0 recs
i'm sure all of you are happy to know i'm back in theater history!
lol. i’ll update you with history things as they occur :)
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
by Michael M on Apr 22, 2008 12:25 PM CDT 0 recs
But they already happened!
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Apr 22, 2008 12:47 PM CDT
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Lohse again
Not watching the game—was it a lucky bounce or a legit single by Lohse?
by Et tu Brewte on Apr 22, 2008 12:33 PM CDT 0 recs
Kind of a lucky hop
by dixieflatline on
Apr 22, 2008 12:36 PM CDT
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I don't have a good feeling about this
Ned already seems semi-crisp
by ol Pete on Apr 22, 2008 12:35 PM CDT 0 recs
Hopefully
Yost gets kicked out before any of the Brewers hitters do. We have what, 3 bench players?
by drezdn on Apr 22, 2008 12:35 PM CDT 0 recs
According to Gameday...
Lohse threw an eephus to Parra, followed by a shoulder-high fastball for a called strike.
by MillerParkSouth on Apr 22, 2008 12:41 PM CDT 0 recs
Fairchild
Here is his every pitch he has called so far this year. Strange that it doesn’t look like he has called too many low strikes up to this point.
by dixieflatline on Apr 22, 2008 12:44 PM CDT 2 recs
Agreed
That’s awesome.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Apr 22, 2008 12:48 PM CDT
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I cleaned it up
Now only balls and called strikes. Looks nicer. Oh I zoomed in on the strike zone as well. Reload your browser to see.
by dixieflatline on
Apr 22, 2008 12:49 PM CDT
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You have those for all umpires?
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Apr 22, 2008 12:51 PM CDT
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Here he is

Pretty tight up and down. That down and outside corner to a righty he doesn’t seem to like. Maybe I should make a lefty/righty at the plate. Maybe a set of four with the pitchers as well.
by dixieflatline on
Apr 22, 2008 1:03 PM CDT
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has anybody done this?
how easy would it be just to run every umpire and see
a) how many strikes they’re calling outside the zone
b) how many balls they’re calling inside the zone
or maybe, just, what % of calls are they getting right? relatively simple stuff by pitch f/x standards, but would be very interesting.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Apr 22, 2008 1:05 PM CDT
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Also
You could computer the average that each bad call is missing by.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Apr 22, 2008 1:06 PM CDT
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nice use of
“computer” as a verb :)
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Apr 22, 2008 1:07 PM CDT
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Haha
Go verb your mom’s noun.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Apr 22, 2008 1:08 PM CDT
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Well John did it for the sum last year
I have been able to do this for a while now. MLB doesn’t put the umpire’s name in the PITCHf/x file but I have been downloading a separate file and cross referencing. I had been holding back a bit but now if they are just going to turn the spigot off later this year anyway who really cares?
by dixieflatline on
Apr 22, 2008 1:07 PM CDT
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yeah, that would suck
I would be very ticked if they did. In part because one of the teams rumored to be pushing for that had the audacity to ask kent and I to open source our college data.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Apr 22, 2008 1:08 PM CDT
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Actually it is very interesting you say that
I have been talking to some people recently as well and there definitely seems to be some issues with the data as far as the teams go.
by dixieflatline on
Apr 22, 2008 1:12 PM CDT
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Can't yet
by dixieflatline on
Apr 22, 2008 1:14 PM CDT
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That's a really good idea
I think putting swinging strikes back on there in red might be useful too, to see if hitters are expanding the zone. Of course, they could be hitting some of those balls too.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Apr 22, 2008 1:05 PM CDT
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I like looking at the Balls that are almost right down the middle.
Well done Dana!
by brewfan2 on
Apr 22, 2008 1:44 PM CDT
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so he doesn't call low strikes
but he comes here and starts…
by ol Pete on
Apr 22, 2008 12:52 PM CDT
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Braun!
That was sweet.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Apr 22, 2008 12:54 PM CDT 0 recs
Nice play all around
Really needed to save that run with how the bats are going right now.
by dixieflatline on
Apr 22, 2008 12:55 PM CDT
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Kendall doesn’t seem to be calling for much low and outside. From the sofa, it seems like that would help.
by ol Pete on
Apr 22, 2008 12:57 PM CDT
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Nice hit Rickie,
Please God can we just score 1 run?!?
I swear to God I think I could hit a Matt Wise changeup......
by Adam P on Apr 22, 2008 1:03 PM CDT 0 recs
Nice hit Craig,
Please God can we just score 1 run?!?
I swear to God I think I could hit a Matt Wise changeup......
by Adam P on Apr 22, 2008 1:05 PM CDT 0 recs
Ok two on
by dixieflatline on Apr 22, 2008 1:05 PM CDT 0 recs


