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Wednesday's Frosty Mug

Good morning. With 12 wins in our first 20, we're sitting two back of the Cubs and half a game back of the Cardinals. Tonight, we open a two game series against Geoff Jenkins and the Phillies. Time for a Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason odds putting the Brewers at 84.8 wins with a 21% chance of winning the Central.

As you've most likely heard, following yesterday's game Gabe Gross was traded to Tampa for a warm body who's struggling in A ball. Brewers Bar has a nice farewell post. I still think Gabe will be a productive everyday outfielder somewhere, but I know it wasn't going to be here, so I'm glad to see him getting a chance somewhere else.

All of a sudden, there's rumblings that Eric Gagne might be pulled from the closer's spot. Admittedly, I'm not real excited about his performance yesterday, but Gagne had pitched in four straight games and warmed up in the fifth straight on Monday before pitching in the sixth game Tuesday. I don't think any closer would pitch exceptionally well in that situation. I think the Gagne signing was a mistake and his most effective days are past him, but pulling him now would be a mistake too.

Speaking of struggling relievers, apparently Ned's not done with Turnbow.

If you're looking for the whiniest possible recap of yesterday's game, Bugs and Cranks has it. Bring your violin.

The chatter around Fielder's new diet must be getting louder in the clubhouse, because now even Ned Yost is commenting on it.

Dugout Central says Brewer fans are the unluckiest in baseball. They make a decent case. But, with that said, Midwest Airlines seems to value them more than most customers.

Brief Alphabetical Morning (BAM) Injury Reports:

Josh Beckett was scratched from yesterday's game with a stiff neck.
Orlando Hernandez will be in a boot for two more weeks and still can't throw the banana.
Rangers P Dustin Nippert has been placed on the DL with a sore right foot.
Indians P Jake Westbrook is on the DL with a rib cage strain.
Mariners OF Brad Wilkerson was pulled from yesterday's game with a sore hamstring.

Cubs GM Jim Hendry has advanced to the second round of Bucs Dugout's Worst GM Tournament, and now faces Astros GM Ed Wade in the second round. Go cast a vote, if you're so inclined.

Could Charlie Manuel have been a Civil War General? Tim McCarver seems to think so.

That's all for today. If you have an item for inclusion in tomorrow's Mug, drop it in the comments. Drink up.

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I really hope the fans don't boo Jenkins tonight

If you are going to the game, please do not boo. Thanks.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 23, 2008 9:27 AM CDT   0 recs

Dear sweet jeebus

So you sit down and realize that this is an All-Star closer. Get with it. Get him in the ballgame.

Ted Williams is an All-Star. Will Ned be trotting his frozen head out and telling him to get with it? Ted Simmons is an All-Star, will Ned be waking him up and telling him to get with it?

by Getting Yosted on Apr 23, 2008 9:30 AM CDT   0 recs

You hit the nail on the head with Butler

Butler was a nice prospect when he was drafted in the 2nd round, a couple of years ago, but his arm was basically dead when he got signed so they basically shut him down. Apparently, it’s never regained it’s luster because when he got promoted to Vero Beach…he hit a wall, more like going full-speed into the wall at the Milwaukee Mile.

I guess the MLB finally told the Brew Crew that 2 Gabes was just too much.

As a writer at DRays Bay(but a native Illinoian(I’m from the far nothern suburbs…so I’m closer to WI than I am to Chicago)), I’d like to get your thoughts about Gross’ ability defensively and ability as a hitter in a platoon.

by Jacob Larsen on Apr 23, 2008 9:31 AM CDT   0 recs

Average defense

in a corner outfield spot. Don’t ever bat him against a lefty but he will hit .275 with a little power against righties. When batting in front of the pitcher he can really work the count and draw walks, so that will be a useful ability in the AL.

by Getting Yosted on Apr 23, 2008 10:24 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Well

With his Vs. LHP splits being such a small number of ABs, maybe he’s being Carlos Pena’d(they said he couldn’t hit against LHP last year and when used correctly..he tore them up to)

However, you’ve seen him more than we have(last time I remember him playing the Rays was in his Toronto Days in which he played Gabe Ruth in Spring Training to only fall completely on his face)

by Jacob Larsen on Apr 23, 2008 11:44 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

He also

Leads the league in christian rock

by SunglassesAtNight on Apr 23, 2008 12:30 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

McCarver

I’m actually kind of surprised he named three generals who were in fact from Virginia.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 23, 2008 9:42 AM CDT   0 recs

ha

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 23, 2008 11:59 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yesterday's Game

Was worth it for this quote from McClung

“Whether it’s the third (inning), ninth or 12th, you’ve still got to go in and get three guys out,” said Seth McClung, who received the victory by pitching the final inning. “With 14 guys out there, we’ve got a pretty good flag football team.”

by drezdn on Apr 23, 2008 9:47 AM CDT   0 recs

Just to finish up something from yesterday

Here is the strike zone as called by Chad Fairchild yesterday. I forgot to mention this yesterday but when I make these plots with the strike zone image I use the average top and bottom of all the players who were involved. So every AB the PITCHf/x controller reports the top and bottom of the strike zone as he sees it. So here the top and bottom of the zone is an average of every batter that came up yesterday.

Not nearly as terrible as I had thought. That said, as I look at more and more of these it is clear to me that normally a ball thrown at the bottom of the zone is likely to be called a ball (see Dana DeMuth’s plot from yesterday’s thread). So if an umpire is calling a pitch that is slightly below the strike zone a strike that is actually a large difference between what normally is called.

Lastly, that strike call way up in the zone is an error by the controller. Sometimes they track the ball as it is thrown back to the pitcher not the actually pitch. When that happens this is the result.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 23, 2008 10:09 AM CDT   1 recs

I absolutely love these graphs

Anytime you have the opportunity I would love to see more.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 23, 2008 11:24 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed

It’s always nice to have real justification for my complaining.

by brewfan2 on Apr 23, 2008 11:30 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks guys

I was going to make a plot for the umpire today but the USA today doesn’t have any umpires listed for NL games today. If anyone knows who is umping today let me know. When I find out I’ll make the plot.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 23, 2008 11:42 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

agreed also

Thanks a bunch for these graphs. They are very interesting and I’m looking forward to checking them out some more in the future

Can't pitch Gagne in rain. He’s like the B-2 bomber of baseball.--TheJay

by verno329 on Apr 23, 2008 11:56 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Braun's first inning at bat

My recollection of this at bat was that the last two called strikes were low and away. Those were the ones where he started to first base (right?). I thought the replay showed that. I went back and looked at gameday and the two pitches are shown as being high enough and actually a couple/few inches over the plate.

On the side of my experience is my memory (oh my) and a camera shot which can be affected by camera angle especially. How certain is the pitchfx data? I know here and there, now and then, you hear remarks that it sometimes can be inaccurate.

Whattya think? Were those pitches balls or strikes?

Anyone else remember the replay of those pitches?

by ol Pete on Apr 23, 2008 12:32 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

very good questions Pete

yeah the data actually kind of sucks. The worst system right now is in Cincinnati so if you want to look at Gallardo’s first start you are kind of screwed. For some reason there has been more of an uproar this year from what I have read about people complaining that the data sucks but it actually was just as bad last year. That is why I spent such a long time doing data corrections in the off season. If you look at my player cards from 2007 they should be spot on. Sadly, the data set isn’t complete yet and won’t be until several interleague series have been played. So I won’t be able to run my correction code on the data until that unless I do something fancy and come up with AL corrections and NL corrections.

Ok that is the bad news but there is good news. Near home plate the cameras appear to be incredibly accurate. Sportvision claims to be accurate to within 1/2 an inch and that is about right from the numbers I have crunched. So if there is anything you should trust it is strike zone stuff assuming the 2008 data is broken in exactly the same way as the 2007 data is.

As for the Braun AB. The two questionable strikes are the two pitchers almost overlapping just below the strike zone. Now were these pitches strikes? By the MLB definition no they were low but there were close. Compared to what most umpires call, they appear to definitely be balls. You can look for yourself at MLB’s gameday site here. Click on inning 1 and then Braun’s name and it should show you the sequence. Interestingly, the first pitch of the at bat was called a ball but it was at almost exactly the same height but a bit more outside. I too thought the two questionable calls were more outside but sometimes the camera angle we get can skew things.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 23, 2008 1:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

thanks for all that

I was sort of suspecting the camera angle. Slightly off center plus a fairly strong telephoto can skew things as you say. The hardest to judge as aTV viewer is when someone like Stetter or Shouse is releasing from an extreme angle on the1st base side and the camera is slightly offset to the 3rd base side.

by ol Pete on Apr 23, 2008 1:31 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Fairchild was consistent

from the top of the zone to the bottom. He was less so on the corners, which seems to be typical of most arbiters. That can be a serious problem for batters on a two-strike pitch, especially facing nibblers like Glavine and Maddux.

by davewillie on Apr 23, 2008 1:38 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Actually that plot made him look a bit less consistent than he actually was

Almost all of those called strikes off the plate came to left handed batters. For some reason umpires really give the outside corner to pitchers when they are facing lefties. Conversely, most of the balls called on pitches that were in the zone but on the right corner were when lefties were up. It is like the strike zone actually shifts about half a foot outside when lefties are batting. Don’t ask me the reason for that, I have no idea.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 23, 2008 1:50 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The Reds

Apparently, The Reds fired their GM and have replaced him with Walt Jocketty.

by drezdn on Apr 23, 2008 10:51 AM CDT   0 recs

Apparently they agreed

with the Bucs Dugout polls that he’s one of the eight worst GMs around. This could be interesting, given Doug Melvin’s well-publicized friendship with Jocketty.

by Zeyes on Apr 23, 2008 12:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

While Jocketty is almost certainly a better choice than Krivsky this still is strange

Why now? What did you learn about Krivsky in these few weeks that make you think he isn’t the right man for the job?

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 23, 2008 1:52 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Are we sure?

Was Gross traded or was it McClung?? Saw this picture in the post game wrap on CNNSI from last nights game. CNN always on top of things, Seth has been with the Crew 2 season now. Just thought this was ironicly funny.

The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!

by 80badger on Apr 23, 2008 10:51 AM CDT   0 recs

I may be a little slow

but I finally got around to checking out the little rotoworld.com widget in the right column. I must say it is pretty sweet.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 23, 2008 11:54 AM CDT   0 recs

Pujol's slide

I usually peek at the other teams sister site during a game once or twice but I didn’t yesterday. When i went back and looked last night, several people thought Pujols was safe. I went and looked at a couple Cards forums and the MVN site and they all say that he was safe. In fact, most say that he was clearly safe. The play is a highlight and I looked at the low rez version that is what is available to me, frame by frame and he looks out.

Any other impressions of the play.

by ol Pete on Apr 23, 2008 12:37 PM CDT   0 recs

I thought he was safe

then again, I thought Adam Dunn was safe in the reds game on Sunday, but the ball did beat him.

by brewfan2 on Apr 23, 2008 1:56 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

my favorite comments from jsonline blog

referring to Prince’s diet:

“He should just eat Yost and solve two problems.”

by Oakland Brewer Fan on Apr 23, 2008 1:18 PM CDT   0 recs

Turnbow

Heard Melvin on WSSP this morning and he said that Turnbow was close as well (whatever that means). When asked about what was likely to deal with roster surplus he made it sound as if he would “maintain depth” by sending someone to AAA rather than make another trade.

When asked about McClung, he stated that Seth had started in AAA and they were still looking for his place on the pitching staff. Maybe i’m not paraphrasing well and maybe I’m assuming incorrectly but I thought he made it sound like he might end up starting again.

As an addendum, yesterday referred to him as “bouncing back.” That seemed an odd phrase to use.

by ol Pete on Apr 23, 2008 1:37 PM CDT   0 recs

Thanks for that update Pete

Anytime Doug speaks it is interested to hear what he has to say even if he is trying to evade questions.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 23, 2008 1:47 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I should have said Melvin referred to Seth being a starter in AAA in case that isn’t clear and the addendum was a comment that Yost made.

by ol Pete on Apr 23, 2008 2:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Sorry KL,

you can’t have it both ways—”I think the Gagne signing was a mistake and his most effective days are past him, but pulling him now would be a mistake too.”

Gagne needs to be put into a set-up role until he shows improvement. A $10 million success as a set-up guy is better than a $10 million failure as a closer.

Honestly, I don’t think Gagne will be around at the end of the season and this will become a moot subject.

by davewillie on Apr 23, 2008 1:47 PM CDT   0 recs

Gagne in the setup role

That didn’t work too well in Boston. In fact, that rarely works well for any closers. Cordero in Texas seems to be an exception.

by brewfan2 on Apr 23, 2008 1:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

So who closes?

Riske isn’t as reliable as some people tend to hope, Turnbow is Turnbow, and Mota is Mota. Shouse and Stetter are situational lefties, they couldn’t handle the closer role.

I hold my breath when Gagne takes the mound, but he’s still the best option, unfortunately.

Ned Yost's Brewers: Braun Over Brains

by SRB on Apr 23, 2008 11:50 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Torres

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Apr 23, 2008 11:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh yeah

Forgot about him.

Ned Yost's Brewers: Braun Over Brains

by SRB on Apr 24, 2008 12:17 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

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