Saturday's Frosty Mug

by KLSnow on Apr 26, 2008 9:36 AM CDT

Quick notes from around the web before I leave for another day on the road and the Sounds/Royals game in Omaha tomorrow. They wouldn't postpone a Sunday game because it's cold, would they? They did it last night.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Posteason Odds: 84.1 wins and 21.7%.

Quick rant to get us started: I hate the retro uniforms. Two reasons:

1) I think reliving the Ball-and-Glove Era has been ridiculously overdone in an effort to distract fans from what has frequently been a below-average on field product in the last decade. That's not necessary anymore.
2) It feels like we lose EVERY TIME we have a Retro Day. Does anyone have the stats on this?

Marlins P Scott Olsen was apparently displeased by the quality of the mound last night. Considering Gagne had to stop mid-inning to scrape crap out of his cleats, I'm guessing there's something to it.

But, on the positive side, statheads are calling the Kendall experience a success. It's still April, of course.

Speaking of statheads, TangoTiger has done the math and determined that an NL pitcher's value is based 86% on his pitching and 14% on his hitting. If those numbers are accurate, they put Ben Sheets' complete inability to hit (and nonchalance about it) in a slightly different perspective, at least for me.

Baseball Digest Daily thinks the Brewers could make a "franchise defining trade" by reaching out to the Indians re: C.C. Sabathia. It seems unlikely on pretty much every level. I think Two Fisted Slopper would suggest including Tony Gwynn in such a trade, though.

The Brewers are up in Minor League Ball's mock draft, and you can go vote on who they should take.

Brief Alphabetical Morning Injury Reports:

Jermaine Dye was held out of last night's game with a strained groin.
Troy Glaus left last night's Cardinals game. He's having difficulty seeing at night.
Orioles P Adam Loewen is on the DL with elbow soreness.
Gary Sheffield's shoulder problems reportedly have him considering retirement.

That's all I've got for today. Jeff will be filling in with the Plastic Cup tomorrow so I can get some sleep before the game/drive home. If you have something to include in a future Mug, drop it in the comments.

Drink up.

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statheads

I think that “Inside Edge” report in the JS blog is basically garbage. I may get around to saying why sometime this week.

I’m also skeptical about Tango’s results on the 86/14 split. I’m not up on all the math he does, and I don’t have time now to puzzle it out, but I’m not buying it yet.

One thought: even if we do buy it, and teams undervalue pitcher offense, I’d be interested to know the resulting advice: how many points of OPS (or whatever) does it take to make up for a higher ERA? E.g., if Dave Bush has a 5.00 ERA and a .350 OPS, how much worse of a pitcher can Zach Jackson be if he has, say, a .600 OPS?

My guess is that whatever those recommended numbers are, they would result in virtually no changes, because
a) there are very few pitchers who are both extremely good or extremely bad hitters AND can be reliably predicted to be that way.
b) it takes a lot of offensive difference to make up for not very much pitching skill difference, and most teams don’t have a lot of close-to-mlb-quality pitching depth.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 26, 2008 9:58 AM CDT 0 recs

I don't know that it'd ever really affect day-to-day roster composition...

But, if the numbers are accurate, I think it does impact player value and could be brought up in contract negotiations.

I agree that it’s probably only relevant in cases on the margins, but as luck would have it we have two on the Brewers: Ben Sheets, who has approximately the same hitting ability I do, and Yovani Gallardo, who in a limited sample size has shown the capacity to flat-out rake (in the framework of expected pitcher hitting). There’s probably only 10 guys in the big leagues good or bad enough at the plate to have it impact their value, but it’s still significant.

by KLSnow on Apr 26, 2008 11:04 AM CDT up 0 recs

it affects their value

but the cases of Ben and Yo are precisely who are not relevant, at least to what tango is talking about.

ben and yo no doubt belong on major league rosters whether they OPS .100 or 1.000.

what would be interesting is if Parra proved he could really hit, but wasn’t pitching well this year, and a decision between leaving him in the rotation and replacing with, say, Weaver, could come down to who hits better. It would have to be really close.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 26, 2008 12:11 PM CDT up 0 recs

Might it Affect Wins and Losses?

It could also have an effect on wins and losses, both for the pitcher and the team.

I think back to ‘05. Sheets pitched very well that year, when he was not suffering from an ear infection, but only went 10-9. I understand and agree with the arguments that wins and losses are not at all an adequate measure of pitching effectiveness. Run support (and lack thereof) has much to do with whether a pitcher wins or loses. If two pitchers have identical pitching stats, but one has an OPS of .650 and the other has an OPS of .065 (gag, that was Sheets’s OPS in 2005), then the better hitter will probably accumulate a win or two more and and a loss or two less. Sheets also insisted on using Chad Moeller as his personal catcher in ‘05. That’s like spotting the opposing team two outs every couple of innings.

Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.

by shooty babitt on Apr 27, 2008 10:24 AM CDT up 0 recs

and...I can't resist

“Troy Glaus left last night’s Cardinals game. He’s having difficulty seeing at night. “

Perhaps he should wear…sunglasses?

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 26, 2008 10:18 AM CDT 0 recs

his trouble is only at night, only in St. Louis and only at the plate…

by ol Pete on Apr 26, 2008 10:52 AM CDT up 0 recs

that's the point.

sunglasses…at night.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 26, 2008 12:11 PM CDT up 0 recs

I think he'll need sunglasses

to shield him from LaRussa laser beams.

by ol Pete on Apr 26, 2008 1:47 PM CDT up 0 recs

Sunglasses at night

I’m pretty sure that only works if Corey Hart were having that problem.

(Baseball Corey, not musician Corey because we all know he does)

"You have no honor!" - McClung to Fukudome

by zsxander567 on Apr 26, 2008 2:32 PM CDT up 0 recs

Can anyone explain the wisdom

of bringing the infield in last nite? I can understand Hall playing even with the bag, but Hardy and Weeks should have been at double play depth. Anything on the ground with Wes Helms running is a double play, and a much better shot than getting Hanley Ramirez at the plate to get out of the inning with no runs scored.

by Getting Yosted on Apr 26, 2008 11:07 AM CDT 0 recs

i think your screen name sums it up don't you?

i thought the same thing. it’s not like helms is fast by any means and of all people ned yost should know this. it was just flat out dumb. and with that d.p., it would have kept the game scoreless.

"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue

by Michael M on Apr 26, 2008 11:08 AM CDT up 0 recs

It could have been a double play only if Bill Hall got the ball

Then he would have had to decide to throw home or to second. Any type hesitation would have probably resulted in no double play.

I thought the worse call by Yost happened in the 7th inning. Bill Hall got on base with no outs. He doesn’t bunt JJ, who proceeds to pop out. Then with one out, he bunts Gallardo, and they throw out Hall at second. I have more confidence in Yo than in JJ and would have liked to see him bat with Hall on second.

by brewfan2 on Apr 26, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up 0 recs

On the ball that was hit

Hall’s only play was at second. His momentum was taking him there, he would have had to stopped and turned to throw home and there wasn’t time. It looked like he pulled up because he knew this and they were going home regardless. But that ball was a routine 5-4-3 DP. Even with the RIckie Risk, Fielder could have bobbled the ball twice and still got Helms.

But ignore where the ball was hit and what we know happened. Isn’t the best play to put Hall even/slightly behind third in case of a squeeze with the rest of the infield at double play depth? It gives you the most flexibility and the opportunity to limit a multi-run inning. Down 1 is better than down 3 and gives you more options. When Rickie gets on in the 10th, its meaningless because the tying run is still on deck. If they’re down one, Kendall or Rickie getting on becomes incredibly valuable and the Marlins need to be concerned about a steal. It influences how the defense plays, and how your hitters approach their at-bats.

by Getting Yosted on Apr 26, 2008 11:39 AM CDT up 0 recs

Retro Days

The Brewers have gone 13-18 in their Retro day games. Thus they’ve lost 60% of the games.

As well, they’ve been outscored on average by 2.5 to 3 runs a game. Take away the 13 wins and that means they’ve really been pasted over the long haul.

by Annoyed In Illinois on Apr 26, 2008 12:01 PM CDT 0 recs

But hey

take away the 18 losses and they’ve been undefeated!

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 26, 2008 12:42 PM CDT up 0 recs

10 innings - 8 leadoff runners - zero runs

Record or near record? Painful regardless.

p.s. I don’t like Hunter Wendelstedt. Did someone say that there was a traditional rotation of umpires clockwise or counter-clockwise. It would be nice if it was the former.

by ol Pete on Apr 26, 2008 2:04 PM CDT 0 recs

Bullpen

I’m conflicted about the bullpen, they’ve been put in a lot of tough spots because the offense has been inconsistent. They’re going to give up a few runs, unfortunately this early in the season they’ve been the difference makers. It evens out.

However, I believe it was a poor move to bring the infield in last night, I thought they should have played at normal depth with the bases loaded and one out and hope for the double play. If the DP doesn’t work out, they only give up one run, but at least get one more out. What do I know, I don’t stuff dead animals.

My non-embarrassing thoughts on the Brewers:
Two Fisted Slopper

by nmc on Apr 26, 2008 3:16 PM CDT 0 recs

Allegedly

What do I know, I don’t stuff dead animals.

That’s what all the dead animal stuffers say.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 26, 2008 7:01 PM CDT up 1 recs

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