Pre-Series Cubs Thoughts
Blah blah blah, this is a big one, whatever. I don't care how on-the-bubble Sheets is or that we're getting Cameron back or that we're playing the Cubs. It's game #26, and after the series, we'll have 134 left. So let's all chill out about that.
That said, it will certainly be an interesting series. Here are some things I've noticed, and others I'll be watching for.
- We all knew the Cubs were going to be a good team, but there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of their 16-9 start. They've had a relatively easy schedule, and while they've played a couple of good teams, they haven't beaten very many good pitchers. Their two-game sweep in New York came off of John Maine and Nelson Figueroa, and while they beat Aaron Harang (hats off to them), they lost to Edinson Volquez. We took the series at Wrigley to open the season, and there's very little I've seen since to indicate that the Cubs are clearly the better team.
- Left field for the Cubs is a giant, yawning chasm of suck. Soriano was awful before his injury, and while DeRosa has been okay in his starts in left field, that leaves Mike Fontenot (OPS: 545) at second base. The Cubs have the offense at other positions to more than make up for it, but it's unusual to see so many people work together to produce so little at an offensive position.
- Kerry Wood isn't the best reliever in the bullpen, but he'll do. He's striking out about one batter per inning and generally doing a good impression of a major league closer. Carlos Marmol, on the other hand, is downright dominant. I'm not about to give Piniella credit for strategery, but if the Cubs have Wood pitching like this in the 9th and Marmol putting out fires whenever necessary, they will be in very good shape. Maybe even good enough to escape the negative effects of a soft pen outside of those two guys.
- A big part of the Cubs' 16-9 start has been the offensive production of Geovany Soto and Kosuke Fukudome. Neither one is a huge surprise, though I don't think most people expected both of them to have 900+ OPSs. Right now, everybody but the left fielders are hitting better than expected, but Soto and Fukudome are in a whole different category.
- Ryan Dempster currently has an ERA of 2.90 and an FIP of 4.24. Something's gotta give. A walk rate over 4 per 9 suggests that the ERA will budge first. If his HR rate ends up around his career average (or worse, as it was last year), that 4.24 will look mighty appealing to Cubs fans.
- As regular readers know, I am not concerned about the goings-on of small samples, so I could care less about the poor clutch hitting over the weekend, or David Riske's last couple of outings. The Brewers offense as presently constituted will score lots and lots of runs, no matter how bad they look on any given day.
If all that wasn't enough to think about, mark your calendars for Thursday afternoon: Carlos Zambrano and Yovani Gallardo. Nice.
0 recs |
13 comments
Comments
6 games against the Pirates has to help also
Be nice to go into the Dump and win 2 out of three I really hope Sheets can go 7 or 8 tonight.
The Bats have to wake up sooner or later why not start tonight ;)
Its all about the Bullpen this season that is the key.
by WSB Chris on Apr 29, 2008 1:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
While I too am sceptical of the Cubs start
They are walking a ton to start the year. 113 for them in total. We have 75 so far on the season. If that ratio stays the same throughout the year we are not going to win the division.
by dixieflatline on Apr 29, 2008 1:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
After this series
The Brewers have 10 games left against the Cubs, seven of them at home and none until July 28th. Something tells me Marmol and Wood won’t be as effective after four months of almost non-stop use.
by Getting Yosted on Apr 29, 2008 1:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Wood, I hear ya
Marmol, though…he got a lot of work last year, and and he seems to have a lot of quick outings, lots of strikes. Will be interesting to see how he holds up.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 29, 2008 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marmol
pitched 69 innings in 59 appearances in 2007. So far this year he has 16 innings in 13 appearances thru 25 games, and as you said there isn’t anyone else in the pen to take on those innings. How effective will he be in August after pitching 1+ innings in half of the Cubs games, even if they are low pitch count innings?
by Getting Yosted on Apr 29, 2008 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he also threw 41 IP in the minors
and was a starter until very recently.
Between the majors and minors, he threw ~130 IP in ‘06, and 150+ IP in each of the previous two years. Most of these were as a starter, so there’s the issue of how appearance frequency will affect him, but 16 IP / 25 games = 104 IP, which is a lot, but doesn’t spell doom for this guy.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 29, 2008 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A few positive things
Soto struck out a lot this past weekend. (8 times in 17 ABs last week)
Meanwhile, the Brewers (even though they didn’t hit much this weekend) seemed to stop striking out so damn much.
by drezdn on Apr 29, 2008 2:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not facing good pitchers
That would be more consoling if the Brewers hadn’t been stymied by the likes of Figueroa and Josh Fogg, etc.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Apr 29, 2008 2:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
True.
"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 29, 2008 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cardboard Gods
Jeff, I am glad you were able to mention Cardboard Gods in your previous entry. It’s really a wonderfully written blog. You should stop by and visit the Baseball Toaster more often. :)
vr, Xeifrank
by Xeifrank on Apr 29, 2008 3:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Win Probability
I ran 2500 game simulations of tonight’s game and the Cubs came out with a win probability of 50.96% with a margin of error of 1%. That puts the game as pretty much a toss up from the simulators point of view. The Las Vegas Sports Book on the otherhand has the Brewers with a win probability of 53.05%... but what do they know. :)
vr, Xeifrank
by Xeifrank on Apr 29, 2008 4:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I really can't wait until all of these early home games
the Cubs are playing come back to bite them in the ass later in the year. It’s starting to balance out a bit, but they play a significant majority of their games in April and May at home. The payback comes in September when they play 17 of their final 23 games on the road, including the season closing series in Miller Park.
"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 29, 2008 5:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

by 
























