Wednesday's Frosty Mug
by KLSnow on Apr 30, 2008 8:42 AM CDT
49 comments
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 85.2 wins and a 22.9% shot at the Central.
Today's interesting side note from BP Odds: A month into the season, BP has the Rays as the most likely playoff team from the AL East, at 42%. The Yankees and Red Sox are both down in the 30's.
Of course, last night's win was largely sparked by the return of Mike Cameron. The JS Blog has quotes from him afterwards.
After the game, Sheets also reported no pain, so hopefully last night was just a rough first day back and he'll be back to normal for the next one.
I have yet to see or hear a report on the condition of umpire Jerry Crawford, who left last night's game early. Most media outlets are just saying he wasn't feeling well, but Baseball Musings says he was complaining of chest pains.
There's no respectful way to transition from a story about chest pain to a story about Derrick Turnbow. There just isn't.
The Brewers are #12 in the latest Bugs and Cranks Power Rankings.
On Injuries:
Nats closer Chad Cordero is headed to the DL with a strained muscle in his shoulder.
Alex Rodriguez's quad injury finally landed him on the DL.
John Smoltz, currently on the DL, is contemplating making the unprecedented move from starter to closer to starter and back to the bullpen again.
If you go out for a walk today, try not to trip over a former Brewer looking for work: Chad Moeller, recently DFA'd by the Yankees, could join Raul Casanova on the Mets. The Orioles DFA'd Greg Aquino yesterday. And Ray King refused to report to AAA and has been released.
It's an annual ritual of spring: Ken Rosenthal seems to think Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey could be on the move soon. I'd be more likely to believe it if we didn't have this conversation every spring, and if the Reds hadn't just signed Cordero and Dusty Baker to win now. But, just like Bronson Arroyo, trade rumors swim in circles.
That's all I've got for today. As always, feel free to leave a comment if you have something to include in a future Mug. Drink up.
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Troy Tulowitzki
Baseball tonight showed him with a leg injury. He got it, tried to stay in and had a grounder hit at him later which he didn’t even try and field.
by ol Pete on Apr 30, 2008 8:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Ray King
If Melvin even makes the slightest move to pick him up, I will be upset.
by drezdn on Apr 30, 2008 9:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think with the way Stetter has pitched that isn't going to happen
In other news, the Brewers now have the best RPI in baseball and played the toughest schedule in all of baseball. I know RPI has flaws but it isn’t horrible and another good sign early in the season.
by dixieflatline on Apr 30, 2008 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A lefty instead of Turnbow or McClung?
King has comparable numbers to Turnbow and McClung on the season. His salary is significantly less then Turnbows and only $100,000 more then McClung. With McClung only pitching once a week and Turnbow’s continued eratic performances I think King could be a good pick up as a situational lefty. For as little as they are using McClung at this point King could be of more value.
by deks on Apr 30, 2008 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Turnbow article
I feel this is the first time I’ve ever heard management publicly admit to Turnbow’s inconsistencies without a “he’s real close to straightening it out” caveat. Possibly a sign they are finally losing support/confidence in him and that he may be on his last leg here if he doesn’t get it straightened out soon? In the past I would’ve figured they would keep him around and try to get him to work through it, but the moves made so far this season (Gross, Bush, Vargas) lead me to believe they aren’t going to play favorites, say enough is enough and make the right move.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 30, 2008 9:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I had a dream last night that the Brewers traded Turnbow to the Royals
...for Erik Cordier. The only problem is, Erik Cordier is on the Braves now.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Apr 30, 2008 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
psychology
Even Ned has to have known that Turnbow has been problematic, but he also knows Turnbow’s fragile psychology, and so he was trying to be supportive. Now that “supportive” has proven itself not to work, he’s moving to the other side, “shape up”, to see if that has any effect.
by keephopealive on Apr 30, 2008 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Do we really think Ned is that smart?
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 30, 2008 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
theoretically
if he’s a good manager, it’s because he’s good at managing people, not because of his strategic skills. Similar story with Dusty.
He might not be able to coherently explain the different approaches he takes and why he chooses one over the other (or maybe he might!) ...but I’ll bet a lot of thought goes into how to deal with somebody like D-Bow.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 30, 2008 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would agree for the most part
Although, if he is in fact good at managing people, you would think he would be a little better at managing members of the press… unless maybe we shouldn’t consider them to be “people”, which I could probably see Ned taking the stance of.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 30, 2008 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
FanShot it
That’s a funny picture.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Apr 30, 2008 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couple a Cubs comments
For Battlekow, the fighting water bear, another Lecter comment:
The Brewers pen is yet to come and that is a tasty morsel.
by gary varsho
And one from the uh, leader, of the other BCB: he advocated last year that the Cubs acquire Corey Hart. When was he for sale?
by ol Pete on Apr 30, 2008 9:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I guess I should have added that the Cubs relievers allowed 7 hits and 4 runs in 4 innings. Not quite an all you can eat smorgasbord, but a bellyfull nonetheless.
by ol Pete on Apr 30, 2008 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
More umpire pictures
Assuming they keep the regular rotation Brian O’Nora will be behind the plate tonight. He has a very big zone and tends to give the outside corner.
The black outline is the MLB defined strike zone and the blue outline is the rectangle where the umpire has the most corrected calls. If you want to see how he stacks up against other umpires you can take a look at his umpire card. Hopefully Suppan can stay away from the cubs batters and have a strong outing. Also, if/when this gets stale let me know. I just am mesmerized by this data but I can get sucked in to rather small details sometimes.
by dixieflatline on Apr 30, 2008 9:56 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for posting these. I wonder if teams do their own versions?
by drezdn on Apr 30, 2008 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder too
Doug, if you happen to be reading this, I’d love to supply you with this data if you aren’t tracking it already.
by dixieflatline on Apr 30, 2008 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully someone on the Brewers either tracks this or is reading this site
This guy was made for Suppan.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Apr 30, 2008 10:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
looks more like he gives the opposite batters box
by ol Pete on Apr 30, 2008 10:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah it looks like he can't see the outside corner and just give the pitcher that part
by dixieflatline on Apr 30, 2008 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Am I reading this wrong?
it looks like he gives to the inside corner to me
by SunglassesAtNight on Apr 30, 2008 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just Curious
I’m assuming this is data from this year so far? If that is the case, I think it would interesting to see how the strike zone of a particular ump changes from game to game and also as the season progresses. It also could be interesting to see how the ump might alter his strike zone for different pitchers, i.e., an established veteran/all-star vs. a rookie (Johan Santana vs. Manny Parra), a low walk rate/high command type guy vs. a high walk rate/bad command type guy. There are definitely so many different and interesting aspects that could be looked at I wouldn’t know where to start.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Apr 30, 2008 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
This is PITCHf/x data from this year only. I absolutely could do a breakdown from game to game and maybe if the ump has some issues today I will do that tomorrow. When Fairchild had those low calls to Braun last week I made that plot. As for vet vs. rookie I am sure the vets get the calls and the rookies don’t. Last week I showed Pujol’s strike zone and it is tight and had a few pitches that were right down the middle and were called balls.
That is where I am at right now. Like a kid in a candy store with this data. I made the blue rectangles yesterday and am going to do some more stuff with it tomorrow so if you check out the umpire cards Thursday there should be more good stuff.
by dixieflatline on Apr 30, 2008 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dave Bush pitches today at 10:30 AM Central
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Apr 30, 2008 10:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
cool, it'll be nice to keep track of how he's doing
"Cubs fans boo again – 99% of these people can’t see the plate." -Ueck
by dux2bux on Apr 30, 2008 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's keeping the ball down well
But he just gave up a homer to Seth Smith, who channeled Bill Hall and somehow pulled a pitch at his knees and on the outside corner.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Apr 30, 2008 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's impressive, (for Smith)
The only problem being that the lesson learned from being able to do that is to try to pull everything…
"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 30, 2008 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's thrown one ball above the knees
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Apr 30, 2008 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
17 strikes/6 balls through two innings
3 K 0 BB 1 H
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Apr 30, 2008 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
decent start
6 innings, 1 earned run, 3 walks, 7k’s
Also, a hit and a run scored!
by warwick5s on Apr 30, 2008 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He won't get the win though
Ergo, he sucks. :-p
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Apr 30, 2008 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Geez
Josh Towers vs. Dave Bush. So sad I missed that one…
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Apr 30, 2008 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Apr 30, 2008 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i hope that by the time the sounds win again
you won’t forget where you put that…
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 30, 2008 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a plan
“The Sounds play a day game today? Crap, where’s that flag…”
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Apr 30, 2008 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cameron
Adjusted for equal playing time, I have Cameron and Gwynn, both with a WAR of 2.63 based off of 2008 ZIPS. vr, Xeifrank
by Xeifrank on Apr 30, 2008 3:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
umm...how?
that would be a pretty massive difference in defense in gwynn’s favor.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 30, 2008 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously, that comment has to come with a little more explanation
That’s rather baffling.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Apr 30, 2008 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oops
Had copied Gwynn’s ZIPS incorrectly and had him with 33 home runs, instead of 4. I believe I copied his 33 RBI column into home runs column. Thanks for calling me out on it. With the massive typo fixed it now reads (adjusted for equal playing time).
WAR
Cameron: 2.63 (PAdj woba .346)
Gwynn: 0.34 (PAdj woba .298)
a little over two wins.
vr, Xeifrank
by Xeifrank on Apr 30, 2008 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Tony ever hits four homers, let alone 33, I will buy Juan Pierre from the Dodgers
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Apr 30, 2008 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chad Moeller
Chad Moeller is back on the Yankee’s 25 man roster today.
by drezdn on Apr 30, 2008 3:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Good to know
I was getting a little worried that Jeff might have to give him shelter until the Mets pick him up.
by Zeyes on Apr 30, 2008 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chad can warm up with me...
...oops, that’s wrong. I mean:
Chad can crash at my place anytime.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 30, 2008 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 11.21.2009 at 4:31 PM CST)
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