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A Story of Two Lineups

It shouldn't come as a shock that the Brewers outscored the Giants today--the Brewers lineup is generally recognized as one of the more powerful in the game, while the Giants lineup is...not.

The difference is quite dramatic.  Nate Roth totaled up the PECOTA-projected VORP numbers for the starting eight, and got a difference of 219.4 to 82.3. 

During the game, I looked up the ZiPS projections for the San Fran starters and discovered that, using those numbers and David Pinto's Lineup Analysis tool, the Giants were supposed to score 3.55 runs per game.  As I noted in the comment thread, that's 575 runs over a full season, which is almost 100 runs worse than the lowest-scoring NL team last year.

Using the same methodology, the Brewers come out to 4.835 runs per game.  (All of this is assuming average pitching.)  That's 783 runs per season, which is a bit down from last year.  These numbers are all a little low, because they assume the pitcher will bat for himself, and that the manager won't make any advantageous platoon moves.  The Giants are probably a little low as well because the ZiPS projections are adjusted for their home park, which is pitcher-friendly.  Oh well.

Following Nate's suggestion, we can use those numbers to figure out how today's Giants and Brewers lineups would do in a full season, head-to-head.  Using the equation for Pythagorean Won-Loss record, the Brewers would win 103 times over a full season. 

That would be nice.

 

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Thanks for doing that...

I have to say that I'm disappointed the Brewers would only win 103 games. Transposition error, of course.

I pride myself on baseball knowledge, but wasn't expecting three guys I had never heard of in the Giants lineup. If only there were a slugger available...

My non-embarrassing thoughts on the Brewers:
Two Fisted Slopper

by nmc on Apr 4, 2008 5:01 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I ran out of energy to keep going

but we'd gain at least a couple of wins putting Cameron in the lineup over Kapler. Probably another couple if you think Kendall is going to play more like ~2000 Kendall instead of ~2007 Kendall.

And MLB teams can only be so bad ... depending on how you define it, the 'replacement level' team wins 45-50 games or so against average competition. Amazingly, the Giants are probably safely above that threshhold.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 4, 2008 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Never heard of..

Velez, Bocock, and Castillo? Two of the three I can see. Velez has at least been causing a bit of a stir.

The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."

by WalrusMan on Apr 4, 2008 10:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey MLB Extra Innings

is running a free preview. Pirates on now. Looks like Cards on tonight. I'm watching on Warner in Milwaukee, channel 878.

by ol Pete on Apr 4, 2008 6:34 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Visiting from McCovey Chronicles to say...

103 is probably low. Hopefully your gang will be too tired from running around the bases to keep up this pace for two more games. If not, Zito is going to have a mighty long game against all those righthanded bats on Sunday...

by natteringnabob on Apr 4, 2008 6:58 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Man

And to think I got a kick out of reading Pirates fans' cynicism. :)

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 4, 2008 9:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, you ain't seen nothing yet

Look at it this way. We have *two* league-average (or slightly above) offensive players in the starting eight: Molina and Rowand. If Roberts or Winn were starting in center, they might also qualify, but not when they're on the corners. The whole infield is replacement level. We've got two good starting pitchers (who are still in the injury nexus), one league-average one (Zito, who seems to be trying to prove he's below average), one hurt one, and two who have had little success as starters. And we have a decent (and really cheap) bullpen.

Our OBP leader might be at 340. Our home run leader will hit 14. Our RBI leader will knock in 67.

Total salary: $76,594,500.

There's no help at AAA or AA. I'd be stunned if we didn't lose 215 games in the next two years. While the Brewers and the rest of MLB will be playing in 2008 this year, we'll be playing in 1968. Which wouldn't be so bad if our pitchers were playing in 1968. They won't be.

by da5id on Apr 5, 2008 2:00 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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