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Game Thread #7: Reds (4-3) at Brewers (5-1)

Mordecai_brown_tiny by Jeff Sackmann on in Game Threads

Admit it, you're excited: You want to see Johnny Cueto just as much as the next guy.

Of course, you'd also like to see Cueto's first drubbing.

Mr. Haudricourt has the lineups; just click here.  Gwynn is still hurting, so Gross is batting second, while everything else is as per usual, with Suppan on the mound.  The JS Blog also has an interview with Cordero.

I've kept playing with my game-prediction spreadsheet.  Here's what it considers so far, using ZiPS projections for all players:

  • OBP and SLG for all starting position players -- that, plus the starting lineups, gives us an run estimation for each offense.  (It would be nice to incorporate platoon splits, but that's a ways off.)
  • IP and RA (run average--not just earned runs) for both starters--using those, we predict how many innings the starter will last and how many runs they'll give up in that time.
  • RA for every member of both bullpens.  This is the weakest part of my model. I just average the RA's for all relievers to get a bullpen RA.  I figure the bullpen will pitch the number of innings that the starter doesn't (good assumption, that one) and use the collective RA to figure out how many runs the bullpens will allow.
  • Park factors.  ZiPS are park adjusted, so the Brewers numbers are right, but I need to adjust the Reds runs and runs allowed to Miller Park.
  • Home field advantage.  Historically, the home team wins about 54% of the time.   I do something a little bit (but not much) more sophisticated than just tacking on 4% to the home team's win expectancy.

Shove all that into a spreadsheet, find the expected run totals, and generate a win expectancy for both teams.  Today, your projected final score is:

  • Brewers 5.21
  • Reds 3.95
  • Brewers win expectancy: 65%

To which I say, "Stupid spreadsheet!  Don't you know the Cueto is the most awesome rookie pitcher ever?"  Well, ZiPS isn't ready to anoint Cueto a Hall of Famer just yet, so neither is my spreadsheet.

Go Brewers!

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I won't be around tonight

due to bowling. So I say, Let's go Crew!

We'll be watching at Cedars Lanes in Cedarburg tonight.

Lordz Of Vengeance....Sometimes I drink...Okay...I drink most of the time.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on Apr 8, 2008 5:17 PM CDT   0 recs

Also

I have a hefty collection of Opening Day pics posted on the website linked in my signature. It's the post from yesterday. Feel free to browse.

Lordz Of Vengeance....Sometimes I drink...Okay...I drink most of the time.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on Apr 8, 2008 5:18 PM CDT   0 recs

The math's on our side

Even down 3-0 with two out in the ninth. Good to know!

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 8, 2008 5:20 PM CDT   0 recs

let's hope it doesn't come to that

even the spreadsheet can't save us then...

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 8, 2008 5:21 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yikes.

A 0.14 WHIP? That's pretty tiny.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 8, 2008 5:35 PM CDT   0 recs

Cordero

So, previously I said I hope Cordero doesn't get booed tonight or whenver he makes his first appearance here. After reading the quotes provided Haudricourt at the J/S this afternoon, particularly "why would I like that" regarding the deadline Melvin put on him and his agent and his comment that they should have signed him in the spring for less money, makes me more ambivalent. I'm not in the "boo his ass" camp, but I'm not going to feel particularly bad if it happens.

Jenkins, when the time comes, deserves lengthy applause in my opinion. He wasn't a great player, or even as good as I think he could have been, but he always played his ass off, most of time when he knew the team had no hope of even playing .500 ball over the long haul. Maybe that's no less than what should be expected, but it certainly was more than some other Brewers alumni from the same era offered. I guess I'll always be a fan of his for that.

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 8, 2008 5:38 PM CDT   0 recs

ditto on all that

and i'm not a big jenks fan.

by ol Pete on Apr 8, 2008 6:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

So Cueto struck out 10 in his debut...

and the Brewers as a team have struck out a little more than 7 times per game. Small samples aside, what's your prediction for Brewer strike outs tonight? (Mixed in with the runs they'll score, of course).

Mine is 9.

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 8, 2008 5:45 PM CDT   0 recs

I'll be optimistic

and say 6.

Part of my optimism is that 6 will represent a large percentage of the outs he records.

I wouldn't be surprised by double-digits, either, though. This is one nice thing about Geoff Jenkins being a Phillie -- at the very least, we don't have 3 jenkins K's to look forward to.

(Bill Hall...maybe.)

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 8, 2008 5:50 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed.

That's why I said that Jenkins was never as good as he could have been. Plate discipline, which I think he was capable of, wasn't a priority. Though maybe that's a forgiveable sin for a moderately powerful hitter trying to put up homeruns and stay in the league in an era where everyone else was juicing.

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 8, 2008 5:59 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I am feeling lucky

4 strikeouts and the young lad gives up 3 count them 3 home runs

Prince gets off of zero tonight

Hall continues his tearing up the Reds tonight

Brewers in a rout tonight bet the wife and kids on that one ;)

Its all about the Bullpen this season that is the key.

by WSB Chris on Apr 8, 2008 6:11 PM CDT   0 recs

I hope you're not married...

I mean, I'm with you, but a little risky...:)

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 8, 2008 6:13 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

It's only risky if he likes 'em.

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 8, 2008 6:25 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

well played.

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 8, 2008 8:14 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I love Cueto

especially since I managed to snag him in a deep keepers league and so far look like a genius.

It's going to be tough watching Fielder and Braun demolish him tonight.

Ned Yost's Brewers: Braun Over Brains

by SRB on Apr 8, 2008 6:20 PM CDT   0 recs

Are you saying you started him?

Shame on you.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 8, 2008 6:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Don't worry, I'm still dedicated.

I'm also starting RP Eric Gagne and MRP Derrick Turnbow this week. (That's right: Derrick Turnbow)

Ned Yost's Brewers: Braun Over Brains

by SRB on Apr 8, 2008 6:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Off Topic

We were speaking of yarmulkes earlier in the discussion of Braun and Kapler, well here is the holy grail gentlemen. Put your orders in now (I already have).

by Hyatt on Apr 8, 2008 6:35 PM CDT   0 recs

nice!

it has been fanshotted.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 8, 2008 6:38 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Now if only the fanshots auto updated

I'm still trying to get used to ->right click->open in new tab, to look at pics, since the thread seems to take a while to reset after hittin back. Well worth it for the new forums though.

by throughhyperspace on Apr 8, 2008 6:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah, that would be nice

I think it would *really* slow down the site, though. I don't know much about the servers and all that, but I think that the comments are stored on one server while fanposts and fanshots are stored on different ones.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 8, 2008 6:46 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Is that irony?

Talking about a yarmulke being the holy grail?

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 8, 2008 6:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Awesome!

I might have to get one of those to wear to games (customized with "Braun" of course)

Ned Yost's Brewers: Braun Over Brains

by SRB on Apr 8, 2008 6:51 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Am I unreasonable

to worry about Gabe G in center?

by ol Pete on Apr 8, 2008 7:01 PM CDT   0 recs

well, in the Sheehan article I was responding to earlier

he described Gabe in center and Braun in left as a 'science experiment'

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 8, 2008 7:04 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I was getting nervous there..

But I found the game on channel 21 where I am. Their website only lists 8 and 23 for Charter cable.. Way to go WMLW!

by throughhyperspace on Apr 8, 2008 7:04 PM CDT   0 recs

Wow

The audio is horrible!

by throughhyperspace on Apr 8, 2008 7:07 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

tune in uek

"They're trying to make me the escape goat"-Michael Scott

by dux2bux on Apr 8, 2008 7:16 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Jeff Keppinger has two home runs already?

He's almost to his career high.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 8, 2008 7:09 PM CDT   0 recs

Not as much

as diamond hip replacements

Ned Yost's Brewers: Braun Over Brains

by SRB on Apr 8, 2008 7:11 PM CDT to parent up   1 recs

Quick inning for Suppan

Only nine pitches.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 8, 2008 7:12 PM CDT   0 recs

interesting

cueto looks pretty darn good...but no k's. i'll take that as a good sign -- if they are making contact the first time they see him, maybe it'll be good contact the second time around.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 8, 2008 7:19 PM CDT   0 recs

no Ks

in all the media hoopla, his ability to "miss bats" was talked about. Hope that fastball stays flat.

by ol Pete on Apr 8, 2008 7:19 PM CDT   0 recs

I just felt a tremor down here in Chicago

what happened?

Ned Yost's Brewers: Braun Over Brains

by SRB on Apr 8, 2008 7:21 PM CDT   0 recs

wow...nice play!

maybe the new diet is going to turn him into steve garvey in the field.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 8, 2008 7:21 PM CDT   0 recs

wow

brian bannister beat phil hughes today. nice!

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 8, 2008 7:24 PM CDT   0 recs

You know you've watched too many FSN feeds

When the first thought in a border line strike is: Hmm, good pitch. I don't know where that missed.

by throughhyperspace on Apr 8, 2008 7:29 PM CDT   0 recs

Good hustle out of the box

on that foul ball.

Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."

by DaleCoop14 on Apr 8, 2008 7:31 PM CDT   0 recs

Cardinals

are batting C. Izturis 9th after Brad Thompson. I thought TLR gave that up.

Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."

by DaleCoop14 on Apr 8, 2008 7:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

But

I think it's because Brad Thompson is a better hitter. He has the lone RBI of the game.

Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."

by DaleCoop14 on Apr 8, 2008 7:37 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

ouch

I would not want to be Ceasar's ego...

by ZTK Always on Vacation on Apr 8, 2008 7:38 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Billy lays off the high heat

but it doesn't matter..

man thats an impressive slider.

by throughhyperspace on Apr 8, 2008 7:34 PM CDT   0 recs

IIRC he didn't go to a 3 ball count against the Dbacks

Braun and Billy both looked pretty eager.

by ol Pete on Apr 8, 2008 7:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Hall seemed a bit more a patient than Braun

but that last pitch broke down, while the others seemed to tail away from a righty more. ones he avoided earlier in the count.

"Tough to take", as Rock would say..

by throughhyperspace on Apr 8, 2008 7:40 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

ouch

strikes out the side

by throughhyperspace on Apr 8, 2008 7:35 PM CDT   0 recs

so much for my theory

about contact the first time through, better contact 2nd time through.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 8, 2008 7:35 PM CDT   0 recs

Suppan looking pretty good

He started the year off strong last year too. Hopefully he can keep this going.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Apr 8, 2008 7:41 PM CDT   0 recs

With that improved defense

hopefully he will..

Or at least thats what I got out of that linked article earlier :)

by throughhyperspace on Apr 8, 2008 7:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Kill the groove thing

Crew needs to find a way to get Cueto out of his pitching groove and rythmic pace and get into his head. He is young, it's time to play some mind games. Call some late time and step out of the box do something different.

The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!

by 80badger on Apr 8, 2008 7:42 PM CDT   0 recs

nice bunt

by sup

"They're trying to make me the escape goat"-Michael Scott

by dux2bux on Apr 8, 2008 7:45 PM CDT   0 recs

You think you can stop Jason Kendall?

I think not.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 8, 2008 7:46 PM CDT   0 recs

lucky that dunn bobbled that

"They're trying to make me the escape goat"-Michael Scott

by dux2bux on Apr 8, 2008 7:46 PM CDT   0 recs

Kendall

is on fire this season!

Ned Yost's Brewers: Braun Over Brains

by SRB on Apr 8, 2008 7:46 PM CDT   0 recs

Yay

The Brewers are living in a manufactured run community.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Apr 8, 2008 7:46 PM CDT   0 recs

Mrs. Roguejim sez

Hey, Jason Kendall is like Charlie Sheen from Major League.

She's so smart.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 8, 2008 7:47 PM CDT   0 recs

Shouldn't he really be like Tom Berenger?

I.e., the gritty, salty, whole grain, lumpy gravy, veteran catcher with the bad knees and the big heart?

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 8, 2008 8:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

She's thinking more

the eyesight correction thing.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Apr 8, 2008 8:39 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

oh. duh.

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 8, 2008 8:49 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Of course,

he just realized Jason Kendall is hitting .500

Ned Yost's Brewers: Braun Over Brains

by SRB on Apr 8, 2008 7:52 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

crazy as it sounds

Jason made that look easy...

by ol Pete on Apr 8, 2008 7:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Powell carrying water for the blub

So, this Cordero business really has the team and its broadcasters off-message. Was it insane for Cincinnati to sign a closer to a 4-year deal, or was the Brewers offer basically the same, give or take a million?

One of these days, Powell may actually realize that in carrying water for the team, he has relinquished any consistent opinions he may have once had.

by Marty McSuperFly on Apr 8, 2008 7:53 PM CDT   0 recs