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Saturday's Frosty Mug

Tiny by KLSnow on

Now I remember what life was like in the late '90s, when winning was a nice surprise. Not only did they somehow manage to sneak out a 9th inning win against a first place team, they did it while wearing the accursed retro jerseys.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps

Michael Hunt is calling for the end of the Yost Era. It'd be more interesting if it came from someone relevant or well informed. But I'll take what I can get. This Yost quote from a later article, however, I refuse to tolerate:
"The thing that matters is that the people who know the game understand what's going on," said Yost, who was being skewered on radio shows and message boards.
The people who know the game. Those are the people who support Ned. And if you don't support Ned, it's because you don't know what's going on. I usually try not to be outright inflammatory in this space, but after that line, the gloves are off. Arrogant crap like that is the biggest reason why Ned Yost shouldn't even be allowed to manage a Wendy's.

Moving along: Yovani Gallardo will have surgery soon to repair his torn ACL. The timetable suggests to me that there's no chance he'll pitch again before next spring. If there was a chance, they wouldn't have waited this long for surgery and the current timetable would be more specific than "sometime next week."

With Gallardo out, there's a possibility that Seth McClung could get an opportunity to start at some point this season. Al notes that his numbers out of the bullpen, when you remove one bad mop up appearance, are pretty impressive.

Only two injury notes today: Reds reliever Kent Mercker is on the DL with a strained lower back and Twins reliever Pat Neshek, who left Thursday's game with pain in his elbow, has torn ligaments and will miss the rest of 2008.

As noted in the fanposts, Kevin Mench is back in the big leagues with the Blue Jays.

Richie Sexson, on the other hand, has been suspended for six games for charging the mound and throwing his helmet Thursday night.

The Padres have released Jim Edmonds. Here's a question to discuss in the comments: Of Barry Bonds, Kenny Lofton and Jim Edmonds, which could make the biggest difference to a contending team?

Reportedly, Peter McGowan is getting ready to step down as president and managing partner of the Giants. By itself, that wouldn't really be Mugworthy, but the first line of this post at El Lefty Malo was just strange enough to catch my eye:
Rumors abound that Peter Magowan wants to wave his frozen peas over the express lane check-out scanner and step down as the Giants president and managing partner.
Huh? I must need another Mug. The Mug is off tomorrow but will return Monday. Drink up.

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Ned has a point

For the first few months of posting on FNY, I actually thought the Brewers were a football team. I tell you what, I sure wish I could take back the series of posts where I criticized Yost’s use of the run-and-shoot offense. I think it probably harmed my credibility as an anonymous, hate-filled Internet commenter.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 10, 2008 9:59 AM CDT reply reply   0 recs

Ha

Doug, please fire Ned.

Love,
Everyone.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 10, 2008 12:49 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

the big Scot Seth

Other than Jamie, I’m probably one of the biggest McClung fans. I think he should be used in a few more important relief situations. But I’m not so sure he’s ready to start. He throws a lot of pitches and looks frazzled sometimes.

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 10:00 AM CDT reply reply   0 recs

al or nl

al: Bonds
nl: Lofton

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on May 10, 2008 11:49 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Yost

Sure he’s an acidic, condescending knucklehead, but its Melvin who keeps him, defends him, supports him… why? Why is the team so devoted to some people that they’re willing to fail? Is it Turnbow’s contract or personality that made the team waste a roster spot for so long? Is Dave Bush sleeping with someone?

What I’d really like to know is how the yays and nays for pitching break down within the organization. I suppose I don’t have much hope of ever knowing that.

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 10:05 AM CDT reply reply   0 recs

bill schroeder will be the color guy today too

http://www.thebuckychannel.com/2008/05/bill-schroeder-going-national.html

"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue

by Michael M on May 10, 2008 10:37 AM CDT reply reply   0 recs

With the play by play guy from the Cards.

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 11:09 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

DirecTV

For those of you not getting the local over the air Fox feed of the Brewer game today check out Channel 616 (Fox Sports Espanol), which is a national feed on DirecTV. While you won’t get to hear Billy maybe the game will sound better in Spanish.

by statsllc on May 10, 2008 11:21 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

The Mike Hunt article

Brought an interesting thought to me. Who would you give credit to for the Cardinals great start? Duncan? La Russa? whoever their GM is? Personally I think Duncan (that is their pitching coach, right?) deserves a lot of credit, but I would also agree that La Russa has a part in it. So if La Russa gets credit for getting a team to play above expectations, a similar line of thought would lead to Yost getting credit for having a team that is vastly under-performing.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on May 10, 2008 11:59 AM CDT reply reply   0 recs

Mike Hunt (tee hee)

I know that Ned’s arrogant statements have destroyed whatever miniscule credibility he once had, but consider: From his persepective, the media and the blog world are actually pretty arrogant. Not a single one of us has actually played that game at the level he is managing it. Many of the negative comments he receives are retroactive comments made after the results are already known. And very often the personal decisions we imagine we would make are being filtered throughthe running commentary during the broadcast.

Ned’s an easy punching bag. But I don’t agree at all that his managing has some sort of magical effect on our terrible start. He’s managed better this year than in any past, shown he is able to learn, and is an absolutely terrrible quote.

"This is pretty much like AAA pitching..." -Ryan Braun

by BraunBack Mt on May 10, 2008 1:21 PM CDT reply reply   0 recs

you'd think that

Mike Hunt’s parents would have thought a little bit before naming him Michael….

Come check out BrewersNation, a new Brewers blog that keeps you up to date on ALL Brewers news and rumors.

by jimmyb1799 on May 10, 2008 1:31 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

He's a terrible quote because he says stupid things

Nobody claimed any sort of magical dust thing – as Ned told the world yesterday. I can see an argument for him being a good manager, but why ignore his flaws? I suspect if he had his way, Turnbow wouldn’t be in AAA (because we need him if we’re going to win – Ned), Matty Wise would still be with the team, and Bush will pick up the ball and near guarantee a loss every fifth day for at least a couple more years. He’ll alienate every umpire in MLB. That’s not all, but why is all that substituted with a pixie dust comment?

Why not hire the best man for the job? Why not play to win?

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 1:39 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

TMJ Brewers reporter - on the radio right now

The players love Ned Yost. He’s never heard them criticize him.

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 1:32 PM CDT reply reply   0 recs

it's funny, ned has a point.

ned had a horrible season last year as a manager. just horrible. this year he has been pretty good, and people are all over him anyway. it’s funny, ned has a point, the people who are all over yost because the team has been losing really aren’t paying attention, and don’t know what is going on. there are only a couple of big contracts to get angry at, there really isn’t anybody playing out of position, the backups are not starting too often, bullpen management has been good. the players just aren’t performing the way they should. that’s all that is happening.

if you’re calling for ned’s head it’s because you don’t know what’s going on. Or you believe, that the players are not playing their best because of yost and someone else would “get more” from the players. It’s something we as fans make up so that we can have an answer.

sometimes the answer is simply “that’s the way the ball bounces.”

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 10, 2008 1:40 PM CDT reply reply   0 recs

how about a little clarification?

if you’re calling for ned’s head it’s because you don’t know what’s going on.

I’m sure you also allow for the possibility that I’m calling for Ned’s head because I think he’s a bad manager? Not for the last month, or year, but for four years I’ve believed he’s a bad manager? And I have documented many, many instances where I believe he has made the wrong decisions, whether they worked out or not.

You may say that your comment wasn’t directed at me, but as a blanket statement, it’s pretty lame. There are plenty of good reasons to want Yost to move along.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 10, 2008 1:46 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

clarification

I’m sure you also allow for the possibility that I’m calling for Ned’s head because I think he’s a bad manager?

definitely.

but he’s been a good manager this year. what does firing him for past mistakes do for anything? managing a baseball team is very easy, and very easy to learn. clearly he’s gotten better. it’s not like plate discipline. you can be a bad manager one day, and be a great manager the next.

There are plenty of good reasons to want Yost to move along.

Ok, but you’ll agree that those reasons are “i don’t like him” and “i don’t think the players like him” right? and while those are, as you say, “good reasons to want Yost to move along,” are they good enough reasons for Melvin to fire him?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 10, 2008 1:54 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

It's not really about Yost

I grant that there are a lot of people calling for Yost’s head for reasons that have nothing to do with Yost.

I dispute that Yost has become a better manager. His greatest fault is arrogance, and he’s not going to unlearn to stubbornly stick to a bad idea. He is not going to unlearn that the most important thing is to be a battler. He is not going to unlearn that putting his players in a position to fail is a good way to manage them.

I don’t need to have a discussion on this because I know Melvin won’t fire him. And so I have a whole season ahead of me where Yost will start to feel like he’s smarter that everyone else in baseball, and send some poor sacrificial lamb like Greg Aquino to his doom.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 10, 2008 1:58 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

arrogance

i don’t count arrogance as a managerial flaw.

if he’s setting up players to fail, when there are better options then yeah, he’s not a good manager. there are just so few examples of that this year though.

i agree with you that he is stupid, arrogant, that his “battling gamer” philosophy is stupid and has the potential to hurt the team. but this year, he has not hurt the team with his in game decision making. and i think that’s all you can judge the manager on, not their intentions, only the results.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 10, 2008 2:03 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I was thinking the same thing

Apart from, as you say, the possibility that he has hurt clubhouse chemistry/focus/whatever, there’s not much to complain about.

You can tell, in part, by the decisions people bark about. You want Hart 5th instead of Hall? (turns out it was done—but really, that’s a miniscule thing.) You want to make an issue about which uninspiring pitcher is in the 5th starter role? Over the course of a year, the difference between Vargas/Bush/maybe Weaver/maybe AAA filler isn’t going to be much, even if Ned picked the wrong one.

When the one thing most of us can agree on is that Ned was a bonehead by inviting a redneck comic … we’re hardly talking Dusty Baker territory here.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on May 10, 2008 1:47 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I will allow this much

Over at FNY, I don’t think a game has gone by without someone calling it a Yosting (even some of the wins have been prematurely called for). Still, just because he hasn’t felt his game-throwing mojo yet this year doesn’t mean it’s gone. It means the team isn’t even good enough to be Yosted.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 10, 2008 1:51 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

pfft.

that’s like saying over at PictureOfCuteKittens.com i don’t think a day has gone by where a picture of a cute kitten hasn’t been posted… come on.

re-read that rant you posted to your front page. all of it is just dead wrong. it’s just a crazy rant by some crazy fool making up some crazy reasons to hate ned yost.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 10, 2008 1:57 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Oh, that's a little harsh

Ranting is cathartic, it’s not there for reasoned discussion.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 10, 2008 2:13 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

agreed.

you’re totally right, i was harsh and ranting has a place.

and while i think yost’s comment above is uncalled for, arrogant and isn’t going to win him any fans, his point is to make the distinction between good baseball sense and cathartic ranting. i don’t think he’s smart enough to make the point though and you get the gobbledy-goo that so often spews from his face.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 10, 2008 2:26 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

and he hit one of my soft spots

I’m no Estrada fan, but the immediate piling-on after Estrada was traded triggered my fair-play instinct. I grow tired of everyone blamed last year’s problems on the catcher (I’m looking at you, Chris Capuano).

by Marty McSuperFly on May 10, 2008 2:15 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I don’t buy for a second that running out Bush every fifth day rather than a half dozen other pitchers wouldn’t result in a difference of a significant amount of games.

I’d guess if Yost had his way, Turnbow would still be with the team as well. Probably Matty Wise too.

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 1:51 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I know you don't.

And I do. I’m not going to argue Bush’s merits with you anymore, though.

As for the difference, let’s quantify it. Let’s be pessimistic and say Bush gives us a 6.00 ERA over 30 starts. That’s not much worse than the average 5th starter, but let’s be optimistic and say somebody else would give us a 5.00 ERA in those same 30 starts. Whoever it is isn’t going to give us many innings (also standard among 5th/6th starters), so say 5 IP per start, 150 innings. A difference of one run in ERA over 150 IP is 17 runs, or less than two wins. So…we’re getting fired up about less than two wins, and I believe that all of the assumptions are tilted in favor of making that number too big.

And on D-Bow and Wise, you may be right, but I’d prefer to judge the manager on his actual actions than on hypotheticals.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on May 10, 2008 1:56 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

A 6 ERA isn't pessimistic

The team has already lost a couple wins in all likelihood. Your estimates are filled with assumptions that may not be true. And hypotheticals exist because they serve a purpose.

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 2:01 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

this is why I shouldn't bother arguing with you.

The team has already lost a couple wins in all likelihood

prove it. some evidence? any evidence?

Your estimates are filled with assumptions that may not be true

That’s why they are assumptions. Give me better ones, and back ‘em up.

And hypotheticals exist because they serve a purpose.

That purpose is primarily when we don’t have reams of data to go on, which we do in this case. I prefer data to what your gut says about somebody else’s gut.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on May 10, 2008 2:05 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Don't get upset because I don't like players you are fond of

You want proof that an alternate course of events would have had a different result? That’s only available if time can be reversed or there are alternate dimensions. Any evidence? Damn. Dave Bush has sucked. Vargas was an easy bet to win at least two games. Till Yost treated him like garbage and started him on short rest he was doing great in ST. He had a 4.3 ERA last year till the mid-point of the season. The idea that DiFelice, Narveson or Weaver wouldn’t have given the team a chance to win some games doesn’t make much sense.

Your formula is just that. Each element is filled with multiple assumptions. I don’t really consider it a supported argument, especially since you are considering a pool of #5 pitchers rather than the available choices the Brewers have.

And no, hypotheticals exist for a whole host of reasons and bringing up the silliness about gut versus mathematical formulas isn’t a response.

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 2:22 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I give up.

I asked for evidence, and you give me “Dave Bush has sucked.” Criticize players I’m fond of all you want, but back it up with something meaningful.

Look at Bush’s gamelog and tell me which games we would’ve won with some other 6th starter on the mound.

I don’t really consider it a supported argument, especially since you are considering a pool of #5 pitchers rather than the available choices the Brewers have.

You think DiFelice, Narveson, or Weaver would do better than a 5.00 ERA? Back that up, please.

See a trend? I’m actually looking things up, and you’re using arguments such as “x has sucked.” (Based on a sample of 5 starts, instead of his career, no less.)

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on May 10, 2008 2:28 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

When I wrote this morning's Mug

I recognized I was going to incite some people, but I didn’t realize I was opening up a game thread for game 715 in the best of 1001 series between Jeff and Pete.

Maybe Monday I’ll call it that. :-)

by KLSnow on May 10, 2008 2:58 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I give up

You proffer a formula based on a very large number of assumptions and think that is evidence? You don’t actually respond to the criticism of the reasoning, instead wanting to do some sort of duel of formulas.

Bush flat out blows. You don’t like that, but that is a statistic. It may not be pretty, but it is a fact. It is data. I offered an alternative and you chose not to respond to that. I offered other alternatives and you think I have to create formulas in order to back up the idea that they would provide a chance of winning. i’ll go with Bill James and his estimation of the value of minor league statistics, so that’s out. What is it that would be meaningful then? And for the life of me, I don’t understand why people don’t think the team should attempt to win the most games possible rather than justifying player selections that don’t do that.

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 3:02 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

But

You just say guys like Narveson or DiFelice or Weaver would be better than Bush. It’s certainly humbling to be around someone so prescient.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 10, 2008 3:04 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

But if he says it often enough

it becomer truer every time!

by Zeyes on May 10, 2008 3:20 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Well

If you don’t realize that your relentless repeating of “Bush sucks” is rapidly becoming the blogging equivalent of Tourette’s, there’s not much anyone can do for you.

And that you’re so utterly unwilling to actually investigate whether the alternatives to Bush would be any better (preferring instead to trot out unsupported vapidities such as “Vargas was an easy bet to win at least two games”) is icing on the cake.

by Zeyes on May 10, 2008 3:28 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Do you know what Tourettes is?

Hasn’t been relentless and I have actually cheered Bush, despite his failures.

And why completely fabricate something like I am unwilling to investigate alternatives to Bush? What in the world are you talking about? Good job ignoring the data I provided, as if data points were the only thing an argument could consist of.

Lots of good insulting and dishonest representations in there.

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 3:36 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I'm waiting for a doozy

Like Colby Lewis would be a good option because he is a winner (10-9 in 2003!)

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 10, 2008 3:24 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I never claimed prescience

I’m not even sure how someone would conclude that from the statements I made.

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 3:22 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I concluded it

Because you imply Narveson or Weaver or DiFelice would be better than Bush, just because. Since you offer absolutely nothing in the way of supporting those guys beyond saying Dave Bush sucks, obviously (to me) you are prescient about how little they would suck in MLB this year.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 10, 2008 3:23 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

If you think that's obvious

You need to start over. Lay out the premises and see if they match the conclusion you draw. Just in the above statements, you can see irrational thought.

Bush pitching like shit, is a fact. Its data. Not a cool way to say it, but reality nonetheless. Not sure why I should type out what you already know about the other pitchers. But again, as before, this has nothing to do with the actual debate of who should pitch.

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 3:28 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

If you say so

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 10, 2008 3:29 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

C'mon be a big boy

Just lay out the premises. Just like intro to logic.

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 3:37 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Here's what I've found
  1. “I don’t buy for a second that running out Bush every fifth day rather than a half dozen other pitchers wouldn’t result in a difference of a significant amount of games.”
  2. “The team has already lost a couple wins in all likelihood. Your estimates are filled with assumptions that may not be true.”
  3. “Vargas was an easy bet to win at least two games.”
  4. “The idea that DiFelice, Narveson or Weaver wouldn’t have given the team a chance to win some games doesn’t make much sense.”
  5. “Each element is filled with multiple assumptions.”
  6. “I don’t really consider it a supported argument…”

A lot of assuming “they would’ve pitched better”-type stuff combined with the following Dave Bush disparaging:

  1. See #1 in previous list.
  2. A 6 ERA [for Bush] isn’t pessimistic
  3. Dave Bush has sucked.
  4. Bush flat out blows.

All that made me conclude you believe Narveson, Weaver, or DiFelice would be a better pitcher than Bush going forward. Of course, I can’t find anything supporting the idea they’re better than Bush beyond the aforementioned assumptions in the first list, but no doubt I didn’t understand your point(s) correctly.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 10, 2008 4:05 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

and for Christ's sake

don’t pretend like the other guys are unknown visitors from Mars.

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 6:12 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Heh

Like when they say Vargas is a #5 pitcher and Seth McClung isn’t a quality pitcher?

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 10, 2008 2:59 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I was repeating what Jacob said in astonishment at the insult

Not sure I can follow you. Are you feeling better?

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 3:03 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Sure

It’s just funny how what you repeated seems to fit very well with your attitude toward people who don’t feel like Vargas and McClung are worth creaming jeans over.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 10, 2008 3:08 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

How so?

You obviously like Vargas and McClung and don’t like that other people don’t.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 10, 2008 3:25 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

You're joking

Most people don’t like Vargas. Its so extreme that sometimes people will say that they don’t want him on the team even if it means winning fewer games. McClung isn’t a favorite anywhere I’ve seen. He’s a “clown” or a loser – stated in a whole variety of terms. It doesn’t bother me in the least. I couldn’t care less.

And the statement about creaming jeans can best be described in words that Jeff doesn’t want used

by ol Pete on May 10, 2008 3:32 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

The arguing

in this Mug is giving me bitter beer face

by molitorfan on May 10, 2008 3:55 PM CDT reply reply   0 recs

On Yost's comments

That sounds very Lopesian

by Hyatt on May 10, 2008 4:09 PM CDT reply reply   0 recs

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