Eric Gagne's Change from 2007 and 2008
by dixieflatline
on May 12, 2008 10:59 AM CDT
34 comments
In the game thread yesterday there was some interest in seeing some plots from Gagne from 2007 with a Boston and Texas split and then his 2008 stuff. I mentioned that this year he was relying on his change a lot more in 2007 and maybe it wasn't as good of a pitch as it was before. There was some talk about that being the problem in Boston as well. So here is the plot of his fastball and change from 2007 while in Texas.
I know it says curve but it means change I just forgot to change that when I ported the code over from my curveball study. In any case, you can see how his release point looks pretty reasonable and the change mirrors the fastball well before dropping late. The two tick marks are when the ball has traveled .075 seconds which is what Adair calls the information gathering time in his book. Now here is the Boston data.
Wow that looks very similar to me. It appears like his change really didn't change so either his problems were with another pitch or mental or maybe just plain dumb luck. Here is the 2008 data however.
Hey I finally got the change up labeled correctly, Anyway, yikes! Gange's change is now crossing over his fastball and isn't dropping much at all compared to his fastball. Again this data is uncorrected but I think there is a real problem here. While the speed difference is still nearly 9 MPHs but if the batters can recognize the difference in speed they really don't have to lower the bat much. I have no idea what needs to be altered in his delivery to fix this but it is pretty clear to me that something really needs to be fixed. The crazy thing is he is throwing that crappy change so much here in 2008 compared to 2007 .
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Nice
I like pretty graphs that make sense of the real world.
by Marty McSuperFly on
May 12, 2008 11:04 AM CDT
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Arm Slot
It seems that the arm slot in which he throws, though slight, may be significant. If Im reading your graphs correctly, the change is thrown about 4 inches lower than the fastball. That seems pretty significant when you’re trying to fool that batter into believing that he is throwing a fastball. Maybe batters realize that early what he is throwing, hence tipping his pitches.
It would interesting to see Trevor Hoffman’s graphs from about 2006 because he needs to fool the batter much more with his change because he doesn’t throw that hard.
Great graphs though.
by brewfan2 on
May 12, 2008 11:13 AM CDT
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So I haven't run those number for the change up
But for the curve ball that arm slot doesn’t seem to be a huge contributor to success. I am writing that up for the hardballtimes article tomorrow so you can check that out. I am guessing that it will be similar for change ups but maybe not.
by dixieflatline on
May 12, 2008 11:22 AM CDT
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"Can't hit my fastball?"
“Here, let me take 9 MPH off it for you.”
Excellent job as always, Josh.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
May 12, 2008 11:13 AM CDT
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very well done.
do we know that it is his change getting smacked around and not the fastball?
also, can i ask what you are doing to create these graphs? are you using that fancy physics formula to take the location, and spin and generate the curve? finally, can we, (will you) determine that if the velocities are not the same something is different in the spin of the ball?
awesome, awesome, awesome.
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by jacob on
May 12, 2008 11:14 AM CDT
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are the black vertical marks the release point?
booyakasha!
by b3nihana on
May 12, 2008 11:17 AM CDT
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around the 10ft horizontal
booyakasha!
by b3nihana on
May 12, 2008 11:18 AM CDT
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"The two tick marks are when the ball has traveled .075 seconds which is what Adair calls the information gathering time in his book. "
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
May 12, 2008 11:19 AM CDT
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Yeah actually the fancy physics is really pretty simple.
It is all just the equations of motion. PITCHf/x gives me the position, velocity, and acceleration at one point and with that you can find those same quantities anywhere. I admittedly don’t do much with spin. Spin is what causes the accelerations but because they have already given me the acceleration that is what is used to make plots like this so I don’t worry to much about what spin induced that acceleration.
Well right now is appears that both his fastball and change are getting smacked around. His numbers from both pitches are negative if you find the runs100 for each pitch. That said, if his change was working it might “fix” his fastball which doesn’t appear to have changed much if at all.
by dixieflatline on
May 12, 2008 11:27 AM CDT
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ok, so i would
hypothesize that accelerations on gagne’s change up are greater this year than last year. and/or the velocity is up on the change up.
besides the path being different, what is different between the changeups this year and last at the time of release? am i right?
and can that data tell us what he needs to do differently?
that is the holy grail of baseball analysis.
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by jacob on
May 12, 2008 12:02 PM CDT
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He said the velocity is the same
Or at least, the difference in velocity between the fastball and changeup is the same. The release point also looks the same. I don’t know enough about pitching mechanics to guess at what could be causing the change in vertical drop given those two variables being constant.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
May 12, 2008 12:14 PM CDT
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Yeah
Depending on how much you believe the 2008 data you can see it all on my player cards. Here is 2008 and 2007 for Gagne. His change’s movement has gone from -6.79×3.4 z to -7.71×2.55 z (everything in inches). So the ball is moving a bit more horizontally but less vertically and speed has picked up about a mile per hour. None of those by themselves would seem like a lot but if you put them together you get the plots above and you can visually see the results.
What the data will be able to eventually do is say things like: his release point is too low, or he needs to add more vertical spin when throwing his curve. It won’t be able to say his release is too low because he is stepping differently or his plant foot isn’t extending fully. There will still need to pitching coaches but hopefully this data will make their jobs a lot easier.
by dixieflatline on
May 12, 2008 12:14 PM CDT
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ok, a little tour around the internets
and it sounds like gagne throws a circle changeup with a wider than normal gap between his index and ring fingers to get that phenomenal sink. ...eric… are you out there… can you confirm this?
so this year, he is getting more tail and less sink, and the changeup on average is almost 1.5mph faster.
here’s my guess… obviously he’s lost velocity on his fastball since his surgeries. to get some velocity back and sacrifice some vertical break a pitcher will drop their arm slot from over-the-top towards 3/4. this allows you to use more of your lower body to put power behind the pitch. a lower arm slot is going to cause more horizontal movement and less vertical movement.
just from looking at the data, the recommendation to gagne might be that he needs to pitch “taller” and more “downhill.” it’d be interesting now to see if the scouting analysis would confirm that. too bad ned said “we’ve seen mechanical issues and we’re not talking.” it’d be cool if he’d pop in here and say, he’s what we think it is, does that match up with what the data is showing? ned… are YOU out there?
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by jacob on
May 12, 2008 1:29 PM CDT
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aha!
here’s some photos
http://www.thecompletepitcher.com/articles/gagne_changeup.htm
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by jacob on
May 12, 2008 1:31 PM CDT
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here he is throwing his curveball
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by jacob on
May 12, 2008 1:38 PM CDT
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and a four-seamer
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by jacob on
May 12, 2008 1:41 PM CDT
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Really??
That sure does not look like any curveball grip I have ever seen or taught. It may be a curveball but it sure looks a heckuva lot more like a Changeup grip.
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
by 80badger on
May 13, 2008 8:46 AM CDT
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it's a curveball grip
you use the middle finger to generate the spin with as little pressure as possible from the index finger… gagne goes to the extreme and takes the finger off the ball.
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by jacob on
May 13, 2008 9:25 AM CDT
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Hmmmm
I will have to respectfully disagree with you on that one. This grip looks alot more like the so called “Vulcan Change” (think Spock greeting on Star Trek) that he throws where he uses the ring finger and MIddle finger and keeps his index off the ball.
You may be interested in this pitching “analysis” from last September on Gagne that actually supports a number of the points you make below regarding his position on the rubber. Interesting article.
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
by 80badger on
May 13, 2008 9:47 AM CDT
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are you looking
at the picture of him in the redsox jersey? see the link above for the vulcan changeup grip. they aren’t close. maybe we should try to find another picture of him throwing a curveball to compare…
thanks for that link!
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by jacob on
May 13, 2008 9:57 AM CDT
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First off, thanks for finding those pictures
Those are really cool! You are almost certainly right about the 3/4 arm angle as you can see in the total release point:
It always shrinks the pictures when I add them as a reply so here is the link to the full picture. Anyway, you can see that he is going more 3/4’ers with the curve and change already. I agree that “taller” could very well be the answer. I wish I knew more about pitching mechanics so I could diagnose further.
Oh and Ned (or Doug) if you are interesting in chatting about Gagne’s change this is the right thread to do so :)
by dixieflatline on
May 12, 2008 1:44 PM CDT
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if you compare that one
to ‘08 (assume no corrections needed…)
it looks like he is pitching from the 1st base side of the rubber, where last year he was in the middle.
i wonder if he is having trouble throwing inside strikes to RHBs…
did you remove those charts from your player cards?
ps. i’m certain those “splitters” are changeups that he “overthrew” not so sure about the cutter, i would not be surprised, given maddux’s presence, if that is a new pitch. did anyone here anything about gagne trying a cutter?
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by jacob on
May 12, 2008 2:14 PM CDT
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it isn't a new pitch it is from the Cincy game
That camera is all screwed up and thinks balls were moving away from RHB for some reason.
by dixieflatline on
May 12, 2008 6:05 PM CDT
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Really interesting
Hopefully this is something correctable. Thanks for making this!
by kingcharlesxii on
May 12, 2008 11:36 AM CDT
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Love reading this stuff dixie!
Thanks and keep it coming
Can't pitch Gagne in rain. He’s like the B-2 bomber of baseball.--TheJay
by verno329 on
May 12, 2008 11:41 AM CDT
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Thanks for the kind words guys
I am really hoping that once I can get the 2008 data corrected I should be able to pump out some really good stuff. I have been saying that for weeks now but with interleague play starting this weekend that will really help me.
by dixieflatline on
May 12, 2008 11:51 AM CDT
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Very well done, as always
You do realize though that Yost is going to send McClung to your house for making this top secret information public.
"My thing is that you guys eat meat all day and you can't hit a ball. That's my thing." - P. Fielder
by SRB on
May 12, 2008 6:04 PM CDT
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If somehow I could get Ned's attention
by dixieflatline on
May 12, 2008 6:06 PM CDT
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Actually I think you have
He and Maddux have probably been skulking around here recently, Jeff should check the recent membership rolls!!! Your charts are the source of the “mechanical fixes” we have heard so much about over the last couple of days. In fact, where were you last night? Didn’t notice you on the game thread. You weren’t jetted to Milwaukee and sitting in the owners box last night were you ;-D
Awesome work!
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
by 80badger on
May 13, 2008 8:43 AM CDT
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dixie
did you notice last night that gagne was almost exclusively working on the fastball on the outer half of the plate? i think maddux and yost feel the problem is that gagne is not getting that first pitch over for a strike…that he isn’t “owning the low outside corner” like we’ve read recently. otherwise wouldn’t he have been throwing exclusively changeups?
this is setting up for a showdown….
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by jacob on
May 13, 2008 9:28 AM CDT
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Hey guys
So I will try to give an update about Gagne’s innings sometime today but as of right now I have some bigger problems. MLBAM decided to change the format of the PITCHf/x data yesterday so my code to parse it is all screwed up. I love how they do stuff like this in the middle of the season without warning. It is like they want to make analyzing the data as hard as possible.
by dixieflatline on
May 13, 2008 10:06 AM CDT
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Ned is at fault
He is so pissed you are doing a better anaysis than he and Maddux have done he pulled some strings and had them slow you down a bit!!
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
by 80badger on
May 13, 2008 10:22 AM CDT
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Change
I don’t know if it is that the change isn’t moving enough or if it is his release point.
Gange is constatnly leaving the change up in the zone so it is less likely to drop off the table. On the rare occasion when he gets it down it is a good pitch.
To me Gange’s stuff is still pretty good but his command is awful.
by nezy37 on
May 13, 2008 1:20 PM CDT
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