Game Thread #39: Dodgers (19-18) at Brewers (19-19)

Tonight's win probabilities

vs [My] Dodgers :)

Win probabilities for the Brewers…

Simulator: 52.87%
LV Hilton: 47.62%
AccuScore: 46.20%

vr, Xeifrank

by Xeifrank on May 13, 2008 4:24 PM CDT 0 recs

Win probabilities in my head

With Villy and Penny pitching, I would say the Dodgers have about a 58-60% chance of winning the game based off my FEELINGS…

Whenever I see these simulators, they are all too close to 50% for my liking! What game so far has shown the highest/lowest win probability? Can we just say the Brewers have a 50% chance of winnning most games and when they face an ace it's 45%, and when sheets is pitching we have a 55% chance of winning?

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on May 13, 2008 4:50 PM CDT 0 recs

I dont know what the hell happened, I must have accidently quoted my last paragraph

Anyway to edit old posts?

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on May 13, 2008 5:00 PM CDT up 0 recs

Nope.

I hate that.

Lordz Of Vengeance....Just Win, Baby.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 13, 2008 7:20 PM CDT up 0 recs

Here's a lock

100% probability that Brian and Rock discuss how you need a guy with “that closer mentality.”

by Marty McSuperFly on May 13, 2008 4:56 PM CDT 0 recs

Hitter's count

88% chance that Brian Anderson will point out every single “hitter’s count.”

by Et tu Brewte on May 13, 2008 5:05 PM CDT up 0 recs

and how you can't try to do too much with it...

Doug, please fire Ned.

Love,
Everyone.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 13, 2008 5:42 PM CDT up 0 recs

Here's some fun

Milwaukee Brewers, 1st 19 games – .244/.329/.388 10 GDP
Milwaukee Brewers, 2nd 19 games – .239/.305/.390 9 GDP

That’s some consistency!

And here’s a guy who has tailed off a little bit, but without much comment from Brian and Rock.

Jason Kendall, 1st 19 games – .345/.400/.483
Jason Kendall, 2nd 19 games – .241/.353/.276

.276 SLG? I didn’t even think that was possible.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 13, 2008 5:05 PM CDT 0 recs

Kendall’s hot start didn’t get me all juiced up. I knew that he had to start acting like that catcher we saw last year in Chicago. Don’t get me wrong the guy’s 1000% better than Johnny First Pitch Estrada but he’s not going to hit anywhere near .300 this year, at least I don’t think.

by ryan braun on May 13, 2008 5:47 PM CDT up 0 recs

On the bright side

He is actually throwing out runners at a decent clip. I was really concerned about that but it appears like he won’t be a liability there like he will probably end up at the plate.

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by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 6:36 PM CDT up 0 recs

for the down low on the Dodgers

go here

by ol Pete on May 13, 2008 6:27 PM CDT 0 recs

I didn't think this worthy of a fanpost or anything but...

I’m curious where people on this site stand with regards to the “need” for a “true closer” on a team, and the thought that without a “true closer” the Brewers are pretty much sunk.

One of the afternoon local talk shows here in Madison was going on and on about how without Gagne pitching like a closer, we’re sunk…like there’s some gene that Gagne has and Mota / Torres / Riske / Stetter don’t…he’s the only one who can go up to the stone at the end of the game and remove excalibur and if he isn’t brave enough to do it the whole kingdom will perish…or something.

It seems to me that this is one thing that the Cubs actually have worked out pretty well…Wood isn’t what I would consider a “true closer” but he’s decent and putting him as closer limits his work, while Marmol does all the heavy lifting.

Thoughts?

by warwick5s on May 13, 2008 6:36 PM CDT 0 recs

Ask the Cardinals about their closer

I mean Izzy has sucked and they still are 23-17. It sure is nice to have a shut down closer in the 9th but it isn’t necessary. That said, with the way the Cubs are playing right now we need every win we can get.

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by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 6:39 PM CDT up 0 recs

What's a true closer?

I could see Riske or Torres, but really the team needs them to be middle relievers. Speaking only for myself, Mota scares me.

I’m still hoping that Gagne gets his change working, cuz I’d be shocked as all get out if he isn’t back as closer within a couple weeks.

They ought to find some minor injury and not take him to Boston.

by ol Pete on May 13, 2008 6:45 PM CDT up 0 recs

High leverage is more important

Closer concept is overblown. It’s more about agents and players making more money than it is about the best baseball solution.

by Lake County on May 13, 2008 6:54 PM CDT up 0 recs

from a dodgers forum

For a team that has a $126 mil payroll 6 of tonight’s starters are being paid less than 500k each.

by ol Pete on May 13, 2008 6:40 PM CDT 0 recs

elsewhere: I’d rather Joe Torre hit lead off than Pierre.

by ol Pete on May 13, 2008 6:52 PM CDT up 0 recs

i just might get the game on live tv...

here in LOS ANGELES tonight! how cool am i????

my spring training photos.

by Jamie in LA on May 13, 2008 6:58 PM CDT 0 recs

cool as ice

by molitorfan on May 13, 2008 7:02 PM CDT up 0 recs

actually... nope...

bummer. its in; but one of the fabulous “snowy” stations…

my spring training photos.

by Jamie in LA on May 13, 2008 7:11 PM CDT up 0 recs

HP, Joe West, is quiet

by ol Pete on May 13, 2008 7:09 PM CDT 0 recs

Really

Did I just imagine a stat saying Rickie is 2nd in the NL in fielding percentage?

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on May 13, 2008 7:12 PM CDT 0 recs

He did

Rickie is improved but that is why fielding percentage is not a good stat.

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by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 7:13 PM CDT up 0 recs

Jeff Kent cleanup

That just doesn’t seem like it would lead to a lot of runs.

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by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 7:12 PM CDT 0 recs

Or 1

by Lake County on May 13, 2008 7:14 PM CDT up 0 recs

On a 2 strike count with first base open too.

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by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 7:14 PM CDT up 0 recs

The one time I miss having Jenkins

He probably turns that hit into an out

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on May 13, 2008 7:16 PM CDT up 0 recs

Yeah Braun plays really deep

I think a lot of left fielders probably at least have a shot at it. Still he is far better at left than he was at 3rd.

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by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 7:18 PM CDT up 0 recs

agreed

I won’t be surprised if that’s a play he can make at some point down the road, he does after all have a mere 38 actual games under his belt out there.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on May 13, 2008 7:21 PM CDT up 0 recs

yes

he should have caught that ball.

by molitorfan on May 13, 2008 7:22 PM CDT up 0 recs

ugh 1-0 cubs

Soriano with a lead off homer.

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by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 7:16 PM CDT 0 recs

I bet if they lose

That’ll be held up as another example of selfish stats-padding.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 13, 2008 7:16 PM CDT up 0 recs

Now we have

Bigbrad Penny, too!

Whenever prince is at first, he should charge the mound and yell "MEAT!"

by jihad on May 13, 2008 7:19 PM CDT 0 recs

Who has it?

Hu has it.

by warwick5s on May 13, 2008 7:20 PM CDT 0 recs

Hu's on first?

by molitorfan on May 13, 2008 7:21 PM CDT up 0 recs

All week?

Are you going to be here all week? Are we supposed to tip our Waitresses? Bazing!

by SgtClueLs on May 13, 2008 7:21 PM CDT up 0 recs

You could do BA's job

Hu?

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by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 7:29 PM CDT up 0 recs

Pierre in left

Wow, just wow.

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by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 7:20 PM CDT 0 recs

It only took Penny eight pitches

Yikes this could be a long (short) evening.

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by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 7:23 PM CDT 0 recs

Villy – 23

by ol Pete on May 13, 2008 7:25 PM CDT up 0 recs

but 32 through 2

by ol Pete on May 13, 2008 7:29 PM CDT up 0 recs

Ned

will make 3 pitching changes in the 9th to stretch out the game

by molitorfan on May 13, 2008 7:25 PM CDT up 0 recs

Yeah

The P/PA tandem of Weeks & Cameron saw three pitches.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 13, 2008 7:26 PM CDT up 0 recs

CPM machine

Here.

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by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 7:25 PM CDT 0 recs

can you also link

to a picture of Trenni?

by molitorfan on May 13, 2008 7:26 PM CDT up 0 recs

If Gallardo really makes it back in September

I will have to go and buy his jersey due to his anti-sheetiness

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on May 13, 2008 7:28 PM CDT up 0 recs

From Fire Joe Morgan's breakdown of a Joe Morgan chat:

and summing up my feelings exactly:

Zach Rastall (Marinette, WI): Hi Joe you’re awesome. What should the Brew Crew do about there horredous relief pitching?
Joe Morgan: There’s not much they can do. They invested a lot of money in Eric Gagne, and if he doesn’t work his way out of his problems, it will be a disaster. It hough they should have re-signed Cordero, but they lost him to Cincinnati. They’ll have to live with that decision. Very few general managers will admit their mistakes. Gagne can turn it around, but who knows?

Here’s the thing, man:

No, actually, here’s the things:

They didn’t invest a lot of money in Gagne, relatively speaking. It’s one year, $10m. Now that’s obviously not cheap, especially for an homme who suces as mal as he does, but they can cut him if they want to and next year, it’s back to the drawing board (in a good way). Frankie Cordero, on the other hand, got $46m for four years from the dumbass Reds. He is 33 years old as of last Sunday, and he has walked 11 guys in 15 IP this year. The Reds are going to be paying this guy $10.5m when he is 36 and on the shelf with his eleventh TJ surgery. (Yeah—eleventh. A lot happens to Cordero in the next few years.) And you think the Brewers should have signed him? And you think they’re having a hard time living with the decision not to?

Gagne stinks, and he’s not their closer anymore. They took a risk on a short-term contract and it didn’t pay off. At least it’s not a hamstringingly bad 4 year deal for a mediocre 33 year-old.

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/05/frempchat.html

Whenever prince is at first, he should charge the mound and yell "MEAT!"

by jihad on May 13, 2008 7:26 PM CDT 0 recs

Morgan shouldn't be allowed to comment on little league games

Let alone MLB.

by Lake County on May 13, 2008 7:42 PM CDT up 0 recs

They need the 3rd string SS

by molitorfan on May 13, 2008 7:27 PM CDT 0 recs

Chin-Lung hits one to the ankle

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 13, 2008 7:28 PM CDT up 0 recs

Martin

not a good throw

by molitorfan on May 13, 2008 7:36 PM CDT 0 recs

Billy really does like himself some tobaccy

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on May 13, 2008 7:37 PM CDT 0 recs

Hall

made Penny throw more pitches this at bat than he did in the entire 1st inning

by molitorfan on May 13, 2008 7:38 PM CDT 0 recs

and he swings at ball 4

by molitorfan on May 13, 2008 7:39 PM CDT up 0 recs

Buck Fall Hill

Lordz Of Vengeance....Just Win, Baby.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 13, 2008 7:42 PM CDT up 0 recs

mound issues again?

by ol Pete on May 13, 2008 7:41 PM CDT 0 recs

off topic

awhile back there was a video of prince fielder’s inside the park home run in the fanshots…does anyone know where i could find it? i see youtube took it down. thanks.

YoGanna win with Gallardo on the mound.

by Griswald on May 13, 2008 7:44 PM CDT 0 recs