Game Thread #39: Dodgers (19-18) at Brewers (19-19)
Penny. Villanueva. Preview. 7:05 CT. Go!
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Tonight's win probabilities
vs [My] Dodgers :)
Win probabilities for the Brewers…
Simulator: 52.87%
LV Hilton: 47.62%
AccuScore: 46.20%
vr, Xeifrank
Win probabilities in my head
With Villy and Penny pitching, I would say the Dodgers have about a 58-60% chance of winning the game based off my FEELINGS…
Whenever I see these simulators, they are all too close to 50% for my liking! What game so far has shown the highest/lowest win probability? Can we just say the Brewers have a 50% chance of winnning most games and when they face an ace it's 45%, and when sheets is pitching we have a 55% chance of winning?
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
I dont know what the hell happened, I must have accidently quoted my last paragraph
Anyway to edit old posts?
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
Nope.
I hate that.
Lordz Of Vengeance....Just Win, Baby.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 13, 2008 7:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Here's a lock
100% probability that Brian and Rock discuss how you need a guy with “that closer mentality.”
by Marty McSuperFly on May 13, 2008 4:56 PM CDT reply actions
Hitter's count
88% chance that Brian Anderson will point out every single “hitter’s count.”
by Et tu Brewte on May 13, 2008 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions
and how you can't try to do too much with it...
Doug, please fire Ned.
Love,
Everyone.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 13, 2008 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Here's some fun
Milwaukee Brewers, 1st 19 games – .244/.329/.388 10 GDP
Milwaukee Brewers, 2nd 19 games – .239/.305/.390 9 GDP
That’s some consistency!
And here’s a guy who has tailed off a little bit, but without much comment from Brian and Rock.
Jason Kendall, 1st 19 games – .345/.400/.483
Jason Kendall, 2nd 19 games – .241/.353/.276
.276 SLG? I didn’t even think that was possible.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 13, 2008 5:05 PM CDT reply actions
Regression to the median
Kendall’s hot start didn’t get me all juiced up. I knew that he had to start acting like that catcher we saw last year in Chicago. Don’t get me wrong the guy’s 1000% better than Johnny First Pitch Estrada but he’s not going to hit anywhere near .300 this year, at least I don’t think.
On the bright side
He is actually throwing out runners at a decent clip. I was really concerned about that but it appears like he won’t be a liability there like he will probably end up at the plate.
by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 6:36 PM CDT up reply actions
I didn't think this worthy of a fanpost or anything but...
I’m curious where people on this site stand with regards to the “need” for a “true closer” on a team, and the thought that without a “true closer” the Brewers are pretty much sunk.
One of the afternoon local talk shows here in Madison was going on and on about how without Gagne pitching like a closer, we’re sunk…like there’s some gene that Gagne has and Mota / Torres / Riske / Stetter don’t…he’s the only one who can go up to the stone at the end of the game and remove excalibur and if he isn’t brave enough to do it the whole kingdom will perish…or something.
It seems to me that this is one thing that the Cubs actually have worked out pretty well…Wood isn’t what I would consider a “true closer” but he’s decent and putting him as closer limits his work, while Marmol does all the heavy lifting.
Thoughts?
Ask the Cardinals about their closer
I mean Izzy has sucked and they still are 23-17. It sure is nice to have a shut down closer in the 9th but it isn’t necessary. That said, with the way the Cubs are playing right now we need every win we can get.
by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 6:39 PM CDT up reply actions
What's a true closer?
I could see Riske or Torres, but really the team needs them to be middle relievers. Speaking only for myself, Mota scares me.
I’m still hoping that Gagne gets his change working, cuz I’d be shocked as all get out if he isn’t back as closer within a couple weeks.
They ought to find some minor injury and not take him to Boston.
High leverage is more important
Closer concept is overblown. It’s more about agents and players making more money than it is about the best baseball solution.
from a dodgers forum
For a team that has a $126 mil payroll 6 of tonight’s starters are being paid less than 500k each.
Really
Did I just imagine a stat saying Rickie is 2nd in the NL in fielding percentage?
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
He did
Rickie is improved but that is why fielding percentage is not a good stat.
by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions
On a 2 strike count with first base open too.
by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 7:14 PM CDT up reply actions
The one time I miss having Jenkins
He probably turns that hit into an out
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on May 13, 2008 7:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah Braun plays really deep
I think a lot of left fielders probably at least have a shot at it. Still he is far better at left than he was at 3rd.
by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions
agreed
I won’t be surprised if that’s a play he can make at some point down the road, he does after all have a mere 38 actual games under his belt out there.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on May 13, 2008 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions
I bet if they lose
That’ll be held up as another example of selfish stats-padding.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
Now we have
Bigbrad Penny, too!
Whenever prince is at first, he should charge the mound and yell "MEAT!"
Yeah
The P/PA tandem of Weeks & Cameron saw three pitches.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
If Gallardo really makes it back in September
I will have to go and buy his jersey due to his anti-sheetiness
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on May 13, 2008 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions
From Fire Joe Morgan's breakdown of a Joe Morgan chat:
and summing up my feelings exactly:
Zach Rastall (Marinette, WI): Hi Joe you’re awesome. What should the Brew Crew do about there horredous relief pitching?Joe Morgan: There’s not much they can do. They invested a lot of money in Eric Gagne, and if he doesn’t work his way out of his problems, it will be a disaster. It hough they should have re-signed Cordero, but they lost him to Cincinnati. They’ll have to live with that decision. Very few general managers will admit their mistakes. Gagne can turn it around, but who knows?
Here’s the thing, man:
No, actually, here’s the things:
They didn’t invest a lot of money in Gagne, relatively speaking. It’s one year, $10m. Now that’s obviously not cheap, especially for an homme who suces as mal as he does, but they can cut him if they want to and next year, it’s back to the drawing board (in a good way). Frankie Cordero, on the other hand, got $46m for four years from the dumbass Reds. He is 33 years old as of last Sunday, and he has walked 11 guys in 15 IP this year. The Reds are going to be paying this guy $10.5m when he is 36 and on the shelf with his eleventh TJ surgery. (Yeah—eleventh. A lot happens to Cordero in the next few years.) And you think the Brewers should have signed him? And you think they’re having a hard time living with the decision not to?
Gagne stinks, and he’s not their closer anymore. They took a risk on a short-term contract and it didn’t pay off. At least it’s not a hamstringingly bad 4 year deal for a mediocre 33 year-old.
http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/05/frempchat.html
Whenever prince is at first, he should charge the mound and yell "MEAT!"
Billy really does like himself some tobaccy
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
Buck Fall Hill
Lordz Of Vengeance....Just Win, Baby.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 13, 2008 7:42 PM CDT up reply actions
off topic
awhile back there was a video of prince fielder’s inside the park home run in the fanshots…does anyone know where i could find it? i see youtube took it down. thanks.
YoGanna win with Gallardo on the mound.
oh and...
less bill hall, more russell bryanan. you know you want 3TO back.
YoGanna win with Gallardo on the mound.
Three True Outcomes… Nearly 50% of his at bats end in either a Home Run, Walk, or Strike Out.
It’s the Rob Deer School of hitting.
He's the round mound of profound
behind Kendall's head - yipes
He seems to have plenty of control otherwise. Some unknown past melodrama?
What I've learned from the TV crew tonight
Bill Hall is the most productive .199 hitter in MLB.
Rickie Weeks has hit the hardest .187 in MLB.
I wonder what they’ll say about Cameron.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
i don't know
but i sure miss him
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
a solid start from a pitcher other than sheets would be nice
"Cubs fans boo again – 99% of these people can’t see the plate." -Ueck
those were only the past couple of days...long term consistency is what i guess i meant
"Cubs fans boo again – 99% of these people can’t see the plate." -Ueck
man do i miss vasgersian
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
Corey Hart
Maybe if he ate more steak that would’ve cleared the fence!
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
Villy's only 21 pitches away
from his pretty reliable MELTDOWN number of 80 pitches. Will Ned be ready for the hook?
by heybatterbatter on May 13, 2008 8:18 PM CDT reply actions
What was the point of that?
Seriously, Hart one of our fastest players on second and you send him? If Hall singles he’s scoring.
So Cappy probably need TJ
You have to wonder if this puts his carrier in jeopardy. He wasn’t throwing nearly as fast after the first surgery and if he losses another couple of MPH it could be too much to overcome.
Maybe
I’ve long wanted to study that and if he does come back I will certainly be looking at his data.
by dixieflatline on May 13, 2008 8:29 PM CDT up reply actions
18 Months?
I’m to lazy to google, but if I remember right. They say that a second TJ takes a good 18 – 24 months to fully recover. Think he’ll still be around?
He's got one big thing going for him
Being left handed, if he could pitch side arm, he can pitch for a Shouse-age.
He's the round mound of profound
Quick inning there
Despite Villy’s pitch count being low he has really imploded around this time previously this year. If they get a base runner or two next inning I am getting someone up in the pen if I am Yost.
BRAUN
Those times where there was only one set of footprints? That’s when Braun carried you.
He's the round mound of profound
Yeah
I was thinking the same thing. Fielder would be the guy telling him to slide, right?
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on May 13, 2008 8:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Nice to see this Brauny
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
Brewers. Brewers.
Keep turnin’ up the heat!
Lordz Of Vengeance....Just Win, Baby.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 13, 2008 8:38 PM CDT reply actions
on a Dodger forum they were talking about our bad defense
Someone should tell them that having outfielders who can throw counts for something.
Wow
Per BA, all 5 of our runs were with 2 outs. A few years ago, that’d be a season’s worth (more or less).
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
I've noticed that several starts ago
but then it looked like he did it every pitch so I figured it was a part of delivery
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on May 13, 2008 8:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Charley Steiner is claiming
that Ned told him Gagne would “probably” be the closer tonight. Being stuck in SoCal, I have to watch the Dodger’s local feed for the game. Have I mentioned how much better Vin Scully is than Charley Steiner?
I know, right?
The last three games have featured the bizarro rotation.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
Or...
Maybe it’s because Melvin had meetings with Ned and kept him away from the pitchers for a while. ;)
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
or
It is because Ned found BCB and dixie showed him the light
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on May 13, 2008 8:57 PM CDT up reply actions
A little known secret
The team passed through a lightning cloud between Florida and Milwaukee, and have learned how to hit again… but at a price.
He's the round mound of profound
What's funny is
If it was Adam Dunn or some other lumbering oaf out there, he’d be catching every line drive.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
too much grit on that one
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
...make that 8-9
Torres did well with the top of the order there.
by PagsBrewCrew on May 13, 2008 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions
one down, two to go
think torres comes back out?
by somethingvague on May 13, 2008 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions
That one was a rocket
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
ouch..
i was looking forward to that matchup. I was glad when Prince got the free base.
by PagsBrewCrew on May 13, 2008 9:19 PM CDT up reply actions
So why can't
Weeks and Cameron pick it up like the Brauntasuarus?
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
Well
Hall does have home runs in consecutive games. I’m sure they don’t count, though.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 13, 2008 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions
they haven't discovered Methamphetamines yet
...did you read what Braun said in an interview? Something about time slowing down when he’s up at bat…seeing the ball for longer. Sounds like he’s just sped up.
In a couple of months, take a look at his face;)
by PagsBrewCrew on May 13, 2008 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Simple reason
They don’t have Milwaukee radio show appearances they habitually sleep through.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
Nice defensive inning for Rickie
Just sayin’
by Marty McSuperFly on May 13, 2008 9:26 PM CDT reply actions
You sonofabitch. No fucking way.
Lordz Of Vengeance....Just Win, Baby.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 13, 2008 9:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Maybe it's a motivational tool for the offense
“If you don’t score more runs…”
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
...trust his gut?
of course he would. same reason there aren’t extra lefties in the lineup…
by PagsBrewCrew on May 13, 2008 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Wow this would be a huge win
The Cubs and Cards are both losing 4-3 right now. To potentially pick up a game on both of them while beating Penny would be very nice.
gagne up in the bullpen
ned is such a tool. Not even 2 days without the closer
by Marty McSuperFly on May 13, 2008 9:28 PM CDT reply actions
That's the issue
I know Gagne wants to prove himself and all. But Ned.. get a back bone and smack him down for at least more then 1 mop up duty appearance.
Sorry
I’m just harboring a lot of resentment and utter hatred towards Gagne right now…...
Personally, I think we got hosed on that one! - Harry Doyle
So here is why Gagne
Torres already was in and Stetter and Riske warmed. Ned just wanted everyone in the pen to get some action.
this isn't a vegas prostitution house!
it’s the major leagues!
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
Ooooh
“Closer’s are a different breed.” That’s pretty close to closer mentality…I’d say the projection has been met.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 13, 2008 9:34 PM CDT reply actions
Loss of Confidence
Didn’t Gagne even say he just lost confidence and nothing else? This move baffels me, but I hope he gets the save. My fantasy team needs him to get a save!
Yeah
Gagne said he needed a mental break, and Ned said it was a slight mechanical issue.
I’d say that Braun’s confidence is well-founded, and that Gagne’s is a little to the lee side of delusion.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 13, 2008 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Brian - Gagne has confidence? After a day or two?
Me thinks we are being fed story lines by the Brewers version of the Kremlin
If gagne comes in
and blows it. Melvin should fire Yost on the spot. This is just fucking ridiculous.
And now Mota
Paging Shouse and McClung. Then everyone will have warmed or been in.
Gagne has confidence
that Ned is a tool.
And Doug said: “Ned, Gagne’s as good as any of the other jokers, and I want draft picks!”
Also, cheese.
Mota warming up as well
I’m guessing Gagne has a really really short leash. I mean really short. I mean really really short.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
Turnbow continued to be a rockstar for a long time after he began sucking
It took awhile for him to turn heel in everyone’s mind.
He's extremely quick and good.
is fsn pumping up the radar gun
97???
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
Do you stick with him if he walks him?
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
That assumes
you were with him when he took the mound!
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
Dodger color guy just said
“Gagne should be successful if his changeup is anywhere near as good as it used to be.”
Guess they didn’t read dixie’s analysis
could you email that to the brewers?
who knows if they’d read it, but it might be worth a shot
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
You could actually try calling and see how far up the chain they'll let you get on the phone
Then ask for a fax number or email.
He's extremely quick and good.
i'm looking
battlekow’s suggestions sounds good too.
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
The official site has a lame email option
Click here to send your question or suggestion to the Brewers.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
yeah
i was going to link that but i thought it was lame too
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
It's probably something simple
Like doug dot melvin at brewers dot com
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
doug_melvin@brewers.com
maybe…
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
So the boos were just biding their time.
Confidence is key.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 13, 2008 9:41 PM CDT reply actions
here we go again
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
Crap

Lordz Of Vengeance....Just Win, Baby.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 13, 2008 9:41 PM CDT reply actions
Sorry the pic is so big
Lordz Of Vengeance....Just Win, Baby.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 13, 2008 9:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Gagne
If he blows the save, I suspect more than his mental will be broken.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
weeks saves his bad throws
for important times
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
aw hell
Now if Gagne blows it, it’ll all be Rickie’s fault
by Marty McSuperFly on May 13, 2008 9:42 PM CDT reply actions
Mark Sweeney?
Ex-Brewer?
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
yep
got him for alex ochoa
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
Historians will look back on that move
and say that’s where the Brewers started to turn it around.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Mark "damaged goods" Sweeney
Why doesn’t this guy get booed like Helms?
He did NOTHING that year here.
Maybe it's a good thing
If the crowd booed him like they boo Helms, he might do well.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
so is that like 16/16 now?
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
I actually like these odds
Jones is teh suck
by Marty McSuperFly on May 13, 2008 9:44 PM CDT reply actions
one thing lost in all the bullpen bullshit
How many close games have we been in this year? Seems we’re always up two in the eighth. Have we won by more than three runs ever this year?
Average Margins
AVG Margin of Victory: 2.65
AVG Margin of Loss: 3.53
AVG Margin of Loss without that horrible Cubs game: 2.79
Brewers fan lost in South Carolina.
oooh
Rickie got rung up on that pitch earlier.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 13, 2008 9:47 PM CDT reply actions
Fan Role
Can I take some time off from fandom because I am mentally tired?
by Bernie's Mustache Wax on May 13, 2008 9:48 PM CDT reply actions
When did we replace Gagne
with Seth Rogen?
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Somebody tell
Andrew the Krispy Cream HOT light is on
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
Thankfully Juan Pierre is up after Andruw Jones
I actually laughed when BA said who was coming up next.
He's extremely quick and good.
jeez
Making Jones look like Pujols there
by Marty McSuperFly on May 13, 2008 9:49 PM CDT reply actions
My Fantasy Team Approves
I disagree with Yosts use of Gagne, but my fantasy team will take the Save.
BA
Shouse can warm up Very Quickly!
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
BA
“As big a save as you can get in the regular season for Eric Gagne.”
Uh…yeah, no.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
That'll show all you
guys who were demanding that Gagne be pulled after he gave up the leadoff hit.
Oh, wait….
great
this just gives more confidence in being a jack ass, ah well, we got the win
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
Holy crap
I still can’t believe that Ned sent Gagne out there. He is either really stupid or has really big rocks.
what's worse
is that this is positive reinforcement for him that he did the right thing, Gagne’s fixed, etc
If you have ever
seen him walk you can answer your own question. Undoubtedly itty bitty!
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
Gagne
Clearly he’s just messing with anyone that has him on their fantasy team (in a really really deep league)
He's the round mound of profound
My league last year
was 18 teams deep.
And I like that team better than my current one. (10 teams)
Lordz Of Vengeance....Just Win, Baby.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 13, 2008 9:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Sure
And I like that team better than my current one. (10 teams)
given the gaping hole you have at second base. :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
I know probably nobody cares
but I’m going to defend myself here during the pitching change. I got a couple snarky “yesterday”s when I asked if we could win a game by more than a run or two. Well, yesterday was the first time since April 6th we won by more than 3 runs (and even then, as Lake County noted), the tying run was in the on deck circle.
/all for one of Mustache Wax’s mental breaks
I didn't mean to be snarky
It’s just strange timing on the question considering yesterday. I really wasn’t nervous yesterday.
He's extremely quick and good.
Gagne Interview
I don’t care what anyone says, Gagne’s a pretty cool dude.
He gets what it’s all about here.
i agree with that
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
why?
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
Could MLB be any easier on the cubs?
Few interleague games. No games against the red sox or the yankees. And while we play the red sox they get the pirates. That will be nine games against the pirates already. If you think that is a lot they play three more against the pirates the next weekend.
Fingers Crossed
This means they’ll run out of easy teams to beat up on later in the year right? And it seems like they’ve played a crazy number of home games.
He's the round mound of profound
Oh no.
Ned reminds me of W. His press conferences are train wrecks. Just make it stop.
Lordz Of Vengeance....Just Win, Baby.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 13, 2008 10:05 PM CDT reply actions
Git-r-done!
Lordz Of Vengeance....Just Win, Baby.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 13, 2008 10:25 PM CDT reply actions

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