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SOS & RPI

As the Brewers sit a game above .500 and look to the rest of the series with the Dodgers, and look forward to the series with the Red Sox, all things considered, the Brewers are in a good situation in terms of schedule.

Based off ESPN's SOS and RPI, the Brewers have had the toughest schedule thus far, with opponents win % at .527. This looks to only get harder as the Brewers play a top team in the Red Sox at Fenway. During the course of the year, I would imagine the Cubs will not win at the current pace they have, as well as the Marlins and Cardinals, so the SOS number will probably go down as the pace of 96 wins seems unlikely for all three. And playing in an arguably weaker division could bring down the SOS, even though I don't know if that stereotype of the Central being the worst division in baseball will hold out this year.

The good news is the schedule should get easier with more games vs the Reds (have played 6 of the 18) and Pirates (have played 0 of the 15 ) during the course of the year. Cardinals we have played 9 games, and they appear to be one of the better teams in the NL Central. Plus all 6 of the Cubs games have been at Wrigley so far.

I know this is not college basketball, but if it was, the Brewers could have a chance to grab the last #1 seed, as they are ranked #4 in the RPI which takes 25% of your team's record, 50% of opponents' record and 25% of your opponents' oppenents' record. The Brewers are behind the Rays, Cubs and Red Sox.

ESPN RPI

This is a good sign, last year the top 5 RPI's were the Red Sox, Indians, LAA, NYY and Rockies, all in the playoffs.

I know it is early in the year and the Crew have technically lost their #1B pitcher in Gallardo. But I don't expect Fielder to be a .250 hitter with 20 HRs, and continue to have our #1, #2 and #6 hitter all batting around .200. Even if they did, I think with the schedule the Brewers record would improve with the easier teams they are scheduled to play. If they improve on these numbers to along with the easier schedule, they could be in really good shape. I know it is a long season, but just trying to put things in perspective.

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Comments

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I fully endorse this message

The one annoying thing about RPI (and SOS for that matter) is it treats all game equal when home games are clearly easier to win and road games tougher. If they just added a minor fix to it RPI would really be a very useful stat.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on May 14, 2008 10:53 AM CDT reply actions  

that's true, in-season

I don’t know much about the history of RPI, but I’m guessing it was initially used in college sports as a way to compare teams at the end (or near the end, approaching bowl season, etc.) of the season. So at that point, every team would’ve been more or less equal in terms of home/road games played. That doesn’t mean you’re wrong, of course—it’d be an easy fix to make.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on May 14, 2008 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

RPI

I’m a bit of a college basketball fan. There are a few variations on RPI that weight road and neutral floor wins more heavily in your favor and home floor losses more heavily against you. It wouldn’t be hard at all to do in baseball.

Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.

by shooty babitt on May 14, 2008 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

SOS

The Brewers hit the two hottest teams in the NL last week and it seemed as if nothing could go right. While everybody felt as if the season was over, things did not go our way, young teams go through challenges like this but its all about keeping the damage to a minimum. Without Yovanni, other young pitchers need to step up and the last 4 starts show promise for the rotation. If we can have a good May I think we will be right where we need to be for the pennant race.

by Brendosweenz on May 14, 2008 10:21 PM CDT reply actions  

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NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
St. Louis 22 15 .594 0 Won 2
Cincinnati 19 17 .527 2.5 Won 1
Pittsburgh 17 20 .459 5 Lost 2
Milwaukee 16 21 .432 6 Lost 1
Houston 16 21 .432 6 Won 1
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