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Time to move Weeks down in the order

After watching Rickie struggle to light the fire for the Crew this season in the lead-off slot I started to jump on the "send him down" bandwagon.  Luckily I caught myself and decided to actually go look at his stats and see how he ranked against the other lead-off guys in the NL. 

Star-divide

Now I will be the first to admit that I am no stat wizard, never played one on TV and I did not sleep in a Holiday Inn Express last night ;-).  Having said that, I think what I pulled makes sense but I have little doubt that Jeff, or KL or The Jay or someone more versed in black magic will let me know where I may have gone astray, and probably rightfully so.

So if nothing else than to foster some discussion on the subject and get my first hack at blogging stats under my belt here is what I pulled.

Below are the BA and OBP's for all the NL leadoff guys as of last night.  I have sorted the players by BA in the first block and OBP in the second block.  These are 2008 season to date numbers.  You will see that Rickie is at the bottom in BA and below current avg on OBP.  Because I am an unapologetic Corey Hart fan I included his numbers for grins, he might not be a bad alternative!!!!

After looking at this I am not ready to clang the bell that Rickie needs a visit to Nashville but some movement down several slots in the order I think are prudent, not only for Rickie’s benefit but for that of the team.  Thoughts?

 

 

 

Team Player BA OBP
Rockies Spillborghs 0.323 0.392
Braves Escobar 0.311 0.388
Brewers Hart 0.304 0.363
Dodgers Pierre 0.297 0.364
Phillies Rollins 0.294 0.308
Giants Lewis 0.287 0.358
Nats Lopez 0.273 0.350
Cards Barton 0.267 0.371
Average   0.259 0.327
Mets Reyes 0.258 0.329
Cubs Soriano 0.257 0.293
Pirates Sanchez 0.253 0.282
Dbacks Young 0.250 0.341
Reds Patterson 0.235 0.282
Padres Hairston 0.228 0.273
Marlins Ross 0.191 0.260
Brewers Weeks 0.187 0.311
Astros Bourin 0.187 0.298
Team Player BA OBP
Rockies Spillborghs 0.323 0.392
Braves Escobar 0.311 0.388
Cards Barton 0.267 0.371
Dodgers Pierre 0.297 0.364
Brewers Hart 0.304 0.363
Giants Lewis 0.287 0.358
Nats Lopez 0.273 0.350
Dbacks Young 0.250 0.341
Mets Reyes 0.258 0.329
Average   0.259 0.327
Brewers Weeks 0.187 0.311
Phillies Rollins 0.294 0.308
Astros Bourin 0.187 0.298
Cubs Soriano 0.257 0.293
Pirates Sanchez 0.253 0.282
Reds Patterson 0.235 0.282
Padres Hairston 0.228 0.273
Marlins Ross 0.191 0.260

 

Final thought: if we are looking for other answers for the lead off slot and were to actually send Rickie down and want to pull up someone from the minors here are the 2 most likely prospects and their numbers.

Nashville   Nunez   .210   .306

Huntsville  Escobar  .269  .299

 

0 recs  |  Comment 28 comments

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Nice job posting those charts

The second one makes Rickie about average. I’d guess his average of hit balls that find gloves is low and that is likely to turn around. I guess I would ride him a bit longer.

No easy alternative. I’d say there is not much chance that Escobar comes up and plays second.

by ol Pete on May 15, 2008 4:48 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

it’s bourn, not bourin.

by kapcuse79 on May 15, 2008 5:36 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think those are Rickie's most likely replacements

Nunez sucks in general and has done nothing in AAA this year to change that perception; if he didn’t make the team out of spring training, he’s not going to make it now. Escobar is a shortstop whose defense is highly regarded, so I doubt he’d be shifted to second, and I doubt Hardy would change positions mid-season.

Far more likely in my opinion is Hernan Iribarren.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on May 15, 2008 5:56 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Iribarren's only appeared at second in two games this season

They might as well take Callix Crabbe back from San Diego.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 15, 2008 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's because they're trying to teach him the outfield

Not because he can’t hack it at second. Iribarren is a better hitter than Crabbe.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on May 15, 2008 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm afraid you might be right

I’ve been hanging on for Weeks for a while now. Yes, the OBP is about league average for NL leadoff hitters, but it really isn’t that good. Do NL managers not see the connection between avoiding outs and scoring runs?

I just can’t see Weeks’ OBP coming up unless he starts to hit. And I don’t see him starting to hit for more average at the rates he strikes out and pops up.

Like 80badger I [heart] Hart, and I’d like to see him in the leadoff spot. I’d also like to see Braun and Fielder hitting 2 and 3, respectively. But what do I know? I guess I’m just a stupid fan who’d like to see the team’s best 3 hitters get more plate appearances.

Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.

by shooty babitt on May 15, 2008 7:37 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

weeks

age, obp
——
22 .333
23 .363
24 .374
25 .379 (projected)

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 16, 2008 8:49 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

shortcomings of the graphs

what these graphs fail to capture is the number “hard outs” rickie has been making. this cannot be overlooked. find me a graph that shows these and i will start paying attention

"You guys know me. I take a long time to analyze things."
- Ned Yost

by SunglassesAtNight on May 16, 2008 10:26 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, there's this

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on May 16, 2008 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

ouch

make it stop

"You guys know me. I take a long time to analyze things."
- Ned Yost

by SunglassesAtNight on May 16, 2008 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

someone ask ned, what is a “harder” out, a ground ball or a line drive? i would think a line drive, but he hits significanly fewer of those, so i’m all confused. enlighten me, ned.

"You guys know me. I take a long time to analyze things."
- Ned Yost

by SunglassesAtNight on May 16, 2008 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A line drive

Rickie’s BABIP sucks (.200), which is what Ned is citing as reason for belief that he’ll improve, that he’s been “unlucky”. The mitigating factor is that his LD% is only 12%, well below his 20% rate in 2005-06 and much lower than even his 17% rate last year. Taken together, this means Weeks is getting unlucky, but not by nearly enough to fully explain his terrible batting average; he simply needs to hit more line drives (and with his power, more fly balls).

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on May 16, 2008 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

exactly

his BABIP would suggest he’s getting unlike, but like you said, his GB/LD%’s indicate there’s a reason for that other than luck. time bat hart 1, JJ 2, Braun 3, Prince 4, Cam 5

"You guys know me. I take a long time to analyze things."
- Ned Yost

by SunglassesAtNight on May 16, 2008 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

*unlukcy, not unlike

"You guys know me. I take a long time to analyze things."
- Ned Yost

by SunglassesAtNight on May 16, 2008 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

my typing is horrible today

"You guys know me. I take a long time to analyze things."
- Ned Yost

by SunglassesAtNight on May 16, 2008 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is why I think SportsNation should add the edit post feature

I have been embarrassed many times, and then you have to point it out to everyone, instead of editing the comment in cognito!

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on May 16, 2008 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

SBNation

Ouch I don’t even know who runs this site, but another example how great the edit feature would be!

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on May 16, 2008 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

SBNation

must not realize how difficult it is to descretely post when you sit directly outside your bosses office and he keeps popping in and out unannounced. much like our bullpen, i haven’t been performing well under pressure lately

"You guys know me. I take a long time to analyze things."
- Ned Yost

by SunglassesAtNight on May 16, 2008 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

boss' office

damnit!

"You guys know me. I take a long time to analyze things."
- Ned Yost

by SunglassesAtNight on May 16, 2008 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

measurement problems?

Frankly, I’m not sure that the two graphs have much independent information, or what the direction of causation is. I don’t know how they actually determine it, but I would guess there is a good deal of subjectivity in distinguishing FB from LD from GB. A ball hit to the left fielder that is caught is likely to be viewed a fly ball, whereas one hit to the gap that goes for a double is likely to be called a line drive. Similarly, a short-hopper to the third baseman is a ground ball, whereas one that “short-hops” 10 feet past the 3rd baseman is a line drive to left.

by keephopealive on May 17, 2008 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

watch out

When I said that same thing and questioned the process of evaluation, I had people going at me like Ned Yost at an umpire.

by ol Pete on May 17, 2008 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Craig Counsel

replaced Ricky a day or two ago – not at leadoff – and I was glad to see it. And I think Craig is the biggest waste if $3 milion ir so in salary short of a player on the DL. Let’s get him down to the lower third of the order ASAP. Actually, I felt he belonged down there 2 weeks ago. Hart would be my first choice but lets try anyone for 7 to 10 days. Wonder how close his BA/OBP compares to our pitchers ?
I’m not calling for Dillon to replce Weeks – yet. Give him another week to hit .250 and/or have a .350 OBP for that period. Then put him back to leadoff. Or let Dillon play for 7 to 10 days to see if he can hit better than Weeks ( I spell it Weak if not for those 450 ft. HR’s).

by richfry on May 16, 2008 1:59 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ned, of course, disagrees

per the JS Blogs:


Weeks is batting .187 with a .315 on-base percentage yet somehow has managed to score 31 runs. Yost continues to insist that Weeks has hit into so many hard outs that his numbers are deceiving.

He’s OK with me, Yost said before the Brewers’ interleague game with Boston was postponed by rain. “I’m happy with it. He’s hitting the ball hard; he’s walking.

His walk-to-strikeout ratio (23 to 30) is so much better than it’s ever been. He’s hitting in very bad luck. The low percentage of balls put in play being hits says that he’s hitting in bad luck.”

(Of course, we have another option in Corey Hart, and this isn’t the first time for a Rickie Weeks/Corey Hart debate.)

More from Ned:

“The worse thing you can do, especially with no viable options, is flopping guys around,” he said. “It disrupts everything. Guys start looking over their shoulder.

“It just makes for an uncomfortable situation. I refuse to do that. Guys need to settle in. There’s no reason not to.”

I’m not really clamoring for a change at leadoff, but if this is the reason why Rickie is still leading off, because it would make for an “uncomfortable situation,” then make room on the bandwagon. We’re a quarter of the way through the season already. Given that we have Corey Hart and ample evidence that Rickie responds to a proverbial kick in the butt, I think it’s OK to risk an “uncomfortable situation” if it keeps us out of last place in the NL Central.

My kingdom for Jerry Royster.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on May 17, 2008 12:23 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Your kingdom, eh?

I didn’t know we were in the presence of royalty!

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on May 17, 2008 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's not much of a kingdom

Then again, we’re talking about Jerry Royster here. :)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on May 17, 2008 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

there is an audio interview with Haudricourt that provides more info

My impression after hearing it wasn’t that the reason was the avoidance of an uncomfortable situation.

Moving Corey has costs as well as benefits.

by ol Pete on May 17, 2008 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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