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Around SBN: The Gift Of The 2003 Tigers

How to Hit Daisuke

I took a tour of Josh Kalk's web based pitchf/x tool to get a sense of what to look for from Daisuke.

Here's what I came up with. I thought I had heard that Daisuke was a guy with a big repertoire, five, maybe six pitches, but Josh's tool really shows him as a guy with three pitches, fastball, slider, changeup. There's over 1400 pitches here, and I believe it's all 2007 data.

Daisuke's fastball sits at an average of 93 mph with decent tail in on right handed batters, his slider is thrown at a modest 84-85 mph and breaks away from right handed hitters. The changeup is thrown mostly in hitters counts to RHBs. Only about 10% of his pitches are changeups which looks like a subpar pitch.

first pitch: hitters want to sit on the fastball low and away, he'll throw that about 60% of the time. He'll start it off the plate and try to get it to tail into the strikezone.

hitter's counts: 60% sliders, mostly thrown for strikes so they'll start middle-in and break away.

pitcher's counts: daisuke will waste a fastball 0-2 high or outside, and try to get you to chase a slider outside on 1-2. Daisuke would rather challenge the hitters. 3-2 will be a low fastball.

recommendation: jump on the fastball 0-0 and 3-2, lay off the slider away 1-2, in the hitters counts take the sliders for strikes to get to a 2-2, or 3-2 fastball. Daisuke doesn't want to go 3-2, and doesn't want to walk you.

Comment 21 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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who's right?

found an SI article 3/27/2007 that suggests daisuke throws six pitches (changeup, shuuto, slider, cutter, curve, splitter) and the changeup is the best. looking forward to watching daisuke pitch.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 16, 2008 1:45 PM CDT reply actions  

He may not want to walk you

But he certainly will. He’s not gonna Bush it.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on May 16, 2008 1:48 PM CDT reply actions  

fangraphs (BIS data)

has six pitches as well. seven if you count the nearly 13% that are “unclassifiable”

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by jacob on May 16, 2008 2:25 PM CDT reply actions  

my guess is that

josh’s algorithms see the sinker and changeup as one pitch and the cutter and slider as one pitch as well (though these two differ decently in mph). i’m even more interested now to see daisuke pitch.

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by jacob on May 16, 2008 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

should really do the research first

instead of last.

josh’s 2008 players card shows six pitches as well…

http://baseball.bornbybits.com/2008/Daisuke_Matsuzaka.html

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by jacob on May 16, 2008 2:29 PM CDT reply actions  

this is.....weird

I’ve never seen a guy post something, and then be the most active commenter :)

by Marty McSuperFly on May 16, 2008 2:33 PM CDT reply actions  

consider the comments edits.

it’s extra information, links and stuff, which add to the original entry.

this is the first time i’ve ever seen a comment about how frequently one of the commentors is commenting. :)

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by jacob on May 16, 2008 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

it's a hegelian dialectic

only it’s all in his head!

:)

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on May 16, 2008 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

i understood the hegelian dialectic

to be largely an intrapersonal endeavor anyway.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 16, 2008 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

wait a minute

Is this something where I need to have an insulin shot or eat a cookie?

by Marty McSuperFly on May 16, 2008 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Nope

A couple beers or nice Scotch might help though!

The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!

by 80badger on May 16, 2008 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

well

if you are a disciple of johann fichte you might argue that just suggesting you should eat a cookie represents a self-awareness which implies your belief in other rational minds. so unless you think i’m crazy, or I don’t exist, the answer is yes, eat a cookie.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 16, 2008 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

Damnit!

I understood all that crap. I am gonna listen to Kiss and drink PBR to get my head right.

by Braunstalker on May 16, 2008 4:41 PM CDT reply actions  

when I was in Philly

last month for a Flyers game we went to this bar that offers something called “The Special”. It is a PBR can and a shot of Jim Beam. The entire bar is decorated with old PBR signs. In a word, awesome.

http://cityguide.aol.com/philadelphia/bars/bob-and-barbaras/v-113917899

by molitorfan on May 16, 2008 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

sweet

I’ll check it out when I visit to run the steps and rock some serious Hall and Oats.

by Braunstalker on May 17, 2008 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hall and Oates

went to my local high school. I wonder if John Oates had the cheesy moustache then, too.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on May 20, 2008 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Jacob

I am very glad you found the resources on my site useful. Analysis like this is exactly what I was hoping would come out of the information I provide. As for the 2007 Dice-K plots (and web based tool). The problem my algorithm runs into is while it is clear that he throws many different pitches several of them are so close together my algorithm will lump them together. Hi’s shuuto, slider, and cutter are all called sliders by my algorithm though you can see the three different clumps if you look closely. Honestly, I don’t worry about this much because if the three different pitches are acting basically the same then to a batter it doesn’t really matter if he sees cutter and actually gets a slider it still moves the same. MLB’s algorithm appears to be a bit finer on this. Actually, this appears to be the first example of MLB’s algorithm outperforming mine. If you look at most of the other player cards for 2008 you will wonder what the algorithm was thinking most of the time.

I again just wanted to say excellent work and if you want to get more in depth with the PITCHf/x data email me and we can probably set you up fairly quickly.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on May 17, 2008 8:12 AM CDT reply actions  

Jacob!

It’s not working!

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on May 17, 2008 4:36 PM CDT reply actions  

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