How do you solve a problem like TG Jr.?

by roguejim on May 18, 2008 7:47 AM CDT

I know Tony Gwynn isn't on the forefront of everyone's minds as we freefall through the NL Central standings. Still, I was wondering: do we have a plan for him, and what about our 2009 centerfield spot?

Back when Cameron was signed, the conventional wisdom was that Gwynn would get a mini-audition until Cam came back in late April. I think then, the idea was to see if Gwynn could show us enough to make him our starting CF in 2009 (or, at least, to warrant a decent return in a trade). If he couldn't, then we had to consider other possibilities, such as exercising the club option for Cameron for a hefty $10 million .

We all know what happened: Gwynn had the hot start (4 for 7 over three games) before landing on the DL; by the time he came back, it was just in time to see the premiere of The Mike Cameron Show.

The problem is this: Gwynn came back on April 23. Since then, he's had all of 21 ABs, covering 4 starts (where he's gone 2 for 14 with 1 walk) and 10 games where he entered as a pinch-hitter (where he's gone 2 for 7 with 3 walks).

So, I'm wondering: does the organization have a plan for Tony Gwynn? It seems to me that if there's hope for him to start in 2009, he'd need to be sent back to AAA to get regular playing time. His staying on the major-league roster suggests to me that

Mr. Melvin et al. think they can evaluate his potential as a starting CF based on spot starts and PH performance.
Mr. Melvin et al. have already determined that he's NOT the centerfielder of the future (even though it's let us bump Rickie from the leadoff spot), and that his future is as a 4th outfielder.
Mr. Melvin et al. have had too many other things to worry about since the Gallardo injury and haven't made any decisions on Gwynn at all.

Of these, option #3 seems the most likely.

The Brewers do have the unfortunate situation of needing a centerfielder for 2009 while keeping the market as high as possible for Gwynn. Dangling Gwynn in a trade when you clearly have a desperate need for team speed, a leadoff hitter, and centerfielder doesn't speak well of his potential.

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Are they dangling him as trade bait?

by ol Pete on May 18, 2008 9:24 AM CDT 0 recs

I don't get the question

For a short time last year, I was bitten by the Tony Gwynn bug, but it turns out I just wasn’t that into him. I’m going to turn the question back on you, RJ, and ask why we should care about the plan for TG Jr? From what we’ve seen thus far, he may have a promising career as a reserve outfielder, but his (limited) time in the majors has shown a guy with weak hitting, little OBA and terrible SLG. Throw in an apparent unwillingness to walk, and it appears to me that TG Jr is actually Juan Pierre, minus the hitting. We should spend a lot of time grooming a guy who isn’t even as good as Juan Pierre?

What about these numbers makes people optimistic about Gwynn?

2006 80 PA, 15K, 2BB, .260/.275/.312
2007 136 PA, 24K, 12BB, .260/.326/.317
2008 35PA, 3K, 4BB, .250/.353/.286

by Marty McSuperFly on May 18, 2008 9:27 AM CDT 0 recs

For kicks

Gwynn’s career minor league line

.274/.350/.345 214BB, 299K

by Marty McSuperFly on May 18, 2008 9:36 AM CDT up 0 recs

I'd be curious

if that’s the same conclusion that Moustache et al. have come up with (that is, bullet point #2). I didn’t get that impression the last time this came up.

I don’t think I’m alone, either - only a couple of weeks ago, the Padres were reported to be interested in Gwynn as their centerfielder.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on May 18, 2008 9:56 AM CDT up 0 recs

Well, look at who they had :)

by Marty McSuperFly on May 18, 2008 9:58 AM CDT up 0 recs

So

if we could get a bologna sandwich for him, you’d say, bring on the bologna?

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on May 18, 2008 10:23 AM CDT up 0 recs

Not at all

I like him as an option off the bench. I guess if someone really wants him as a starter, and they offer a decent A or AA prospect, I’d be OK with that, though.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 18, 2008 10:37 AM CDT up 0 recs

Would you trade him for a bumper sticker?

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on May 18, 2008 10:51 AM CDT up 0 recs

The problem Gwynn has is who does he play for?

Cameron’s been awful at the plate (like Weeks and Hall), but he’s only got 66 AB’s, so I’m not going to complain about him not getting the bench. Gwynn’s only other positions are LF and RF, but Braun and Hart aren’t going to get the bench with any regularity since they’re some of the only players actually performing near expectations right now. If Cameron is still struggling a month from now, Gwynn might get more time.

To me, the better question is if Gwynn’s only playing time is going to be as a pinch hitter, how do you rationalize keeping him up and leaving Branyan, who offers some left handed power and the ability to play the corner IF positions, at AAA? Particuarly since they’ve already demonstrated a willingness to play someone other than Gwynn or Cameron in CF? Clubhouse issues might explain that, since Gwynn has played with Fielder for years and since Hall might snap if he thinks he’s going to get hooked from his position again..

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 18, 2008 10:56 AM CDT up 0 recs

I can remember a Melvin interview

where he said that teams often ask for Gwynn. That was a while ago.

by ol Pete on May 18, 2008 10:23 AM CDT up 0 recs

LaPorta

I’m not very big on TGJ. He does have a tendency to make me look the fool when I openly mock him in game threads. But, since LaPorta seems to have a very high ceiling, what about moving Hart to Center. Braun to Right and bringing up LaPorta and putting him in the easier defensive position of left. Something about a LaPorta/Hart/Braun outfield sounds scary while not overly sacrificing defense.

This doesn’t solve our apparent 3rd base problems (Sorry Billy, I love ya, but you are wearing thing on me now)

by SgtClueLs on May 18, 2008 10:09 AM CDT 0 recs

Here's the problem with Billy

Ned apparently likes that approach.

“(Branyan) is a left-handed Billy, with power. He’s a strikeout guy, with power. I like him. It just wasn’t right, right now. We’ve got Billy playing third base. I like our bench the way it is.

Explains a lot, doesn’t it? If the manager and the coaching staff don’t think there’s anything wrong with 3TO baseball, then the players have no reason to approach the game differently.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 18, 2008 10:17 AM CDT up 0 recs

Bingo.

But I still don’t follow his logic. If you like Billy doing what he’s doing, why is bringing up Branyan, who’s just like him but a lefty a bad idea?

Unless it’s a clubhouse issue, which is frankly what the comment impies to me. Actually it might also explain why Gwynn is still here even though he never gets used.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 18, 2008 10:50 AM CDT up 0 recs

yeah...

Hall – .197/.272/.408, 6 2B, 9 HR, 21 RBI, 15 BB, 44 K
Branyan – .368/.449/.706, 13 2B, 10 HR, 33 RBI, 20 BB, 40 K

I see how Yost says that he’s a strikeout guy. You know what, Ned? So are the majority of Brewers players. And Branyan is not a “left-handed Billy.” If that were the case, Branyan’s OBP would not be higher than Hall’s slugging percentage. Nor would it be more than double Hall’s OBP. They are the exact same player….except one is producing and one is not. That seems to mean they are not different players, Ned….

Come check out BrewersNation, a new Brewers blog that keeps you up to date on ALL Brewers news and rumors.

by jimmyb1799 on May 18, 2008 11:45 AM CDT up 0 recs

edit

they ARE different players, Ned…

geez…nothing like undermining my point with a typo…

Come check out BrewersNation, a new Brewers blog that keeps you up to date on ALL Brewers news and rumors.

by jimmyb1799 on May 18, 2008 11:46 AM CDT up 0 recs

Fortunately, we don't have to use minor league numbers

Branyan has a substantial amount of time in the major leagues. In that time, he’s compiled a .229/.327/.478 line, with 755 Ks in 1868 AB. By all means, continue to believe he will miraculously come back to the majors and produce this time.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 18, 2008 11:52 AM CDT up 0 recs

sure, but...

What’s Hall’s true level these days? Sure he’s probably not the ~700 OPS guy he’s been over his last 600 ABs, but is he the guy who OPS’ed over 850 in 2005/06? If Branyan really came up and produced “this time” to the tune of his career line, I think most people would be quite happy, assuming the defensive dropoff isn’t too big.

by Zeyes on May 18, 2008 12:09 PM CDT up 0 recs

From those same career numbers

Branyan

Against righties:
.231 .332 .479

Against lefties:
.215 .297 .469

Hall

Against righties:
.254 .303 .452 (.161 .230 .339 this year)

Against lefties:
.274 .354 .495 (.333 .421 .667 this year)

I think, from these numbers, you could make a very legitimate case that they should platoon.

Whenever prince is at first, he should charge the mound and yell "MEAT!"

by jihad on May 18, 2008 12:14 PM CDT up 0 recs

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