Fatigue! It's Catching.
by Kyle Lobner on May 23, 2008 12:19 PM CDT
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PrintSo, in this morning's Mug I included this stat, to get people thinking a bit about the Brewers' catching situation:
Johnny Estrada, May 2007: .236/.244/.449
Jason Kendall, April 2008: .301/.366/.398
Jason Kendall, May 2008: .224/.314/.290
The Brewers have what I consider to be a disturbing trend going on with their catchers, dating back to last season, but also visible during the Damian Miller era: They play their starting catchers a lot, often to the point of impacting their performance. Last year, despite being unavailable for some significant stretches of time, Estrada caught more innings than all but 7 NL catchers. He caught nearly everyday despite being nearly unable to move in August and September.
Make no mistake, Jason Kendall is catching a lot this season too. Consider this list: the top 10 NL Catchers by percentage of team innings caught.
Jason Kendall, 88.6%
Brian McCann, 88.1%
Russell Martin, 86.7%
Geovany Soto, 85.2%
Yadier Molina, 79.3%
Bengie Molina, 76.0%
Paul Bako, 71.8%
Chris Snyder, 70.0%
Josh Bard, 70.0%
J.R. Towles, 64.0%
An important note regarding this list: Brian McCann is 24. Martin and Soto are 25. In fact, there's only three catchers on this list over 30: Bako (37), Kendall (34) and Bard (30).
There were only five catchers in the National League who caught 1000 innings last season. Kendall is on pace to catch 1282. That's more than any NL backstop caught in 2007, and it'd be the second highest total of his career. Again, he's 34 years old and has already caught over 14,000 innings. Maybe this would all be irrelevant if he was hitting. But as I mentioned above, there's a visible decline in play. His OPS is down over 150 points in May. And he's still got 4 full months of catching nearly every day ahead of him.
At the same time, he has a capable backup. Mike Rivera battled it out in spring training and beat out an established major league catcher (Eric Munson) and a fan favorite (Vinny Rottino) to earn the right to wear his catcher's gear just 8 times and get just 25 plate appearances in the opening 47 games. It's hard to imagine he's having any luck staying sharp when he's playing less than once per week. But he's still 7-for-24, hitting 27 points better than Kendall.
I don't think one can make an argument that Rivera should play every day, or even that a 50/50 split is in order. I like Kendall's contributions to this team, and I've bought into the hype on his defensive skills and game-calling abilities. I have one simple recommendation that I think would keep Kendall stronger and healthier, keep Rivera getting consistent plate appearances and give the team the best chance to win:
When Manny Parra starts, Mike Rivera should too. This is win-win all around. It gives Kendall consistent rest, Rivera consistent plate appearances, and it gives Parra a familiar catcher to throw to as he works to improve his game at the big league level. Parra has a 4.09 ERA this season when pitching to Rivera, and a 4.50 ERA when pitching to Kendall. Plus, Rivera caught Parra's perfect game in AAA last season.
What do you think?
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I like the idea
But that means Yost would have to stop doing the pitcher batting 8th thing every 5th game and I can’t imagine him bringing himself to do such a thing. I agree with eveything you said about Kendall’s production dropping, his improved defense compared to past catchers, and the need for Rivera to get some regular work. Maybe the new manager will go along with your thinking :)
Can't pitch Gagne in rain. He’s like the B-2 bomber of baseball.--TheJay
You would think
the one position that Yost could handle most effectively would be catcher. That’s our Ned, confounding even the lowest of expectations.
by Getting Yosted on May 23, 2008 12:37 PM CDT reply actions
ned's doing a great job with catcher.
the brewers are better with kendall behind the plate, he should play as much as he can handle. there is no evidence that kendall needs rest.
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No evidence
There’s no evidence that the Brewers are better with Kendall behind the plate, either. Since the team itself is significantly worse this year than last, I don’t know how you could carve out an area where they are actually better, and then attribute it to Kendall.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 23, 2008 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions
of course there is evidence.
zips
rivera .209/.288/.355
kendall .257/.332/.313
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I just thought of that
Yeah, Kendall is better than Rivera. I was stuck in “Kendall v. League-average catcher” or “Kendall v. Estrada” modes.
Those zips remind me that Kendall sure isn’t very good, though :)
by Marty McSuperFly on May 23, 2008 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
no, he certainly isn't "great shakes"
but the NL catching position so far:
.267/.342/.401
is only .010 higher OBP… (yes, yes, nearly .100 OPS, i know)
and maybe i’m wrong to do this, but hearing the praise that kendall gets from pitchers, players and other coaches makes a difference to me. i think there is a psychological advantage the pitcher has not wondering if he can spike a ball in the dirt and not have to cover home plate. and i like the fact that he was one of the very best catchers in the game for a long while…
dunno if you saw the aflac question the other night but kendall is the only pirate catcher with 175+ hits in a season and he did it 5 times. i’m a sucker for a hall of fame type guy like kendall. i love that captain on the field type guy.
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Yeah
I have no better solution in mind than Kendall. I grow a little tired of the lionization by the broadcasters, but as you mention, he’s an old school guy that has earned some respect in the game.
I’ve seen a few of those balls get past Kendall this year, and I know at least one was called a wild pitch when it should have been a passed ball. Kendall may still be solid, but at least some of his kudos are coming as a benefit of his reputation.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 23, 2008 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Minor nit
Looks like he hit 175+ in 4 seasons
by Marty McSuperFly on May 23, 2008 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions
his stat comparisons from April to May is evidence to me that he needs some time off. Certainly not that he needs to be replaced or anything, just more than a day off every three weeks or so
Can't pitch Gagne in rain. He’s like the B-2 bomber of baseball.--TheJay
that's absurd.
so if he had 4 more hits during the month of may, it would be evidence that he doesn’t need time off?
you know, the more i think about it, the more i have a problem with this whole post. this is the faux statistical analysis that the gutheads think all statistical analysis is.
maybe his lasik is wearing off.
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Hi, Jacob.
you know, the more i think about it, the more i have a problem with this whole post. this is the faux statistical analysis that the gutheads think all statistical analysis is.
Sorry if I’m a “guthead,” whatever that is, but I think there’s a logical correlation between a catcher who’s hitting is lagging and the fact that he’s catching more innings than any other catcher in the NL. There’s been some studies done that show that catching might be hard on one’s knees.
I don’t want him traded or benched, I’d just like him kept fresh. I’m sorry if that makes my argument “faux statistical analysis” or if making this argument makes me a “guthead.”
Derek Jeter is day to day after being hit by a pitch and being gorilla press slammed by a Bizarro Ray.
If you girls would like to dance, I can turn the lights down
Kendall’s 2nd month performance looks to be inline with his expected performance this season, and so I’m inclined to see his April as the anomaly. I wouldn’t want to run the catcher down, either, but at this point I see the change as a normal regression, and not a top player getting gassed.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 23, 2008 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions
nope
you’re not a guthead. people who reject statistical analysis are gutheads.
you dont have evidence for correlation between 4 fewer (2 from projections) hits in may and the number of innings he’s played. you can say he’s played many innings, he isn’t hitting as well as he did in april but you have zero evidence the two are related.
gutheads believe that this problem that you have with your look at kendall is the same problem with all statistical analysis. they are wrong.
i have no problem with your opinion that rivera should play more (other than i disagree with it). but there is no statisitcal evidence that he should. in fact, if anything, the statistical evidence shows rivera should play less.
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The problem I have with that argument
Is that your statistical “evidence” is a prediction, ZiPS. It predicts Kendall and Rivera’s performances this year. It’s not always right – in fact it’s anything but certain. It’s a reasonable projection in the absence of real data. It’s not gospel.
It also says nothing, at least nothing noteworthy, about the volume of playing time a player can handle without diminishing results.
Whether you agree with the possibility that it’s already affecting Kendall or not, can we at least agree that he’s 34 years old so it’s possible his body can no longer handle the strain of catching approximately 140 games? And that, if that’s the case, the team would be better off giving one start every five days to a fresh catcher?
Derek Jeter is day to day after being hit by a pitch and being gorilla press slammed by a Bizarro Ray.
Another case where money trumps sense
As I recall, Kendall’s contract relies heavily on bonuses which trigger at numbers of games. He is going to be very reluctant to voluntarily sit until he hits the magic 120-game mark (pretty sure it’s 120).
by Marty McSuperFly on May 23, 2008 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Here it is
On Wednesday, he finalized a one-year contract that guarantees him $4.25 million with the Brewers, who went 83-79 and were in the postseason race until the final week.Performance bonuses could tack on an additional $1 million if he makes at least 130 starts, and his contract includes a guaranteed option for 2009 if he starts 110 games.
From espn
by Marty McSuperFly on May 23, 2008 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Guthead?
Jacob says “i have a problem with this whole post. this is the faux statistical analysis that the gutheads think all statistical analysis is. ‘
I’m curiously ignorant of the terms “guthead” and “faux” statistical analysis.
As the promoter of “true” statistical analysis (as opposed to the “faux” kind), I’d love flaming Jacob to discuss the meaning of guthead. And do you have any statistics to back up your assertion that guthead is even a word?
To the point of this thread:
I say Rivera will be the regular catcher by the end of August, because Kendall wants his extra million and doesn’t really care if he blows a body part out after that. The Brewers want to get those 130 games out of him because that’s what they’re paying him for this year.
Kendall goes on playing after August? Well, everything past 130 games is gravy for both parties. Ned understands all this, and besides he has this knack of either overusing or ignoring his players. The Kendall caper is a perfect case in point. How do I “know” all this? I have a true statistical analysis which I will share with anyone for $500. Just call 1-800-555-1212 for the lowdown…....
by heybatterbatter on May 23, 2008 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Is there anything for Parra to gain from being caught by a more experienced catcher
while he tries to improve his game this year? I like the idea of attaching Rivera to one pitcher in the rotation to get Kendall reguar rest and Rivera regular playing time, but my knee jerk reaction is that Parra might benefit from Kendall’s 14 years in the league more than Rivera’s limited time at this point. I’m not sure I want Parra being caught by a guy he’s familiar with at this point. Discomfort can be a great learning experience…
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 23, 2008 3:04 PM CDT reply actions
As to the Parra-Rivera marriage
I think it’s a great idea. No only do I think it’s great idea, many managers, including Yost, have effectively used the same strategy. I think somebody might have the time and compulsion to ferret “the numbers” on this. Just not me.
by heybatterbatter on May 23, 2008 5:11 PM CDT reply actions
Interesting stuff KL
It seems prudent for Jason to pace himself a bit more and to get Rivera some time in the game. One of those innumerable little decisions that managers make that affect the team.
Everything I hear about Kendall makes him sound like a team player as well.
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