Branyan vs. Hall - Lineup Analysis
by NoahJ on May 26, 2008 8:34 PM CDT
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PrintI was thinking today: As much as I like the move of Promoting Russell Branyan to the Major Leagues, how big of an improvement is he over Hall? To help figure that out, I used this line-up analysis tool to identify the run differential the two players had between them when plugged into the lineup. For Branyans numbers, I did not use his current major league statistics, due to the obviously small sample size, nor did I use his Minor League statistics which are, obviously, different than ML statistics would be. I also did not want to use previous ML numbers. Instead, I took his minor league stats and put them into a minor league equivalancy calculator to project his Nashville numbers into the Major Leagues.
Doing this, I found that Branyans Major League numbers would have projected to be:
|
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
K |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
SB |
|
156 |
18 |
49 |
12 |
0 |
9 |
29 |
18 |
52 |
.312 |
.385 |
.571 |
3 |
In contrast to Halls numbers, which are currently:
|
AB |
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
K |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
SB |
|
177 |
19 |
39 |
8 |
0 |
9 |
22 |
16 |
49 |
.220 |
.292 |
.418 |
2 |
So looking at just these numbers, Branyan isn't really an upgrade in runs, doubles, HR, BB, K, or SB. He provides a few more RBI. But the key differences between the two are a .092 higher BA, a .093 higher OBP and a monstrous .153 higher SLG for Russell the Muscle. Also, I think I should point out that with Branyans projected numbers, it would give him a higher OBP and SLG than any starter on the team.
But how do these relate into run differential? Well, with Ned's new line-up in the last couple games, we are projected to score 4.213 runs per game with Bill Hall in the line-up. The best line-up with Hall playing, according to the lineup analysis, would net the Brewers 4.608 runs per game.
With Branyan in the line-up, with his ML projected numbers, using the same batting order, the brewers projected runs per game jumps to 4.533 with the projected best line-up giving us 4.96 runs per game.
Again, this isn't assuming a platoon with Lefty/Righty splits or really any other factor than numbers that projection tools gave me, so I'll leave you to draw your own conclusions toward whether Branyan will be as much of an upgrade as this seems to tell us. Once more: According to projections, Branyan would have a higher OPS than any starter on our team.
PS - For numbers on line-up analysis, I used every players current MLB statistics (other than Branyan) and averaged out all the pitchers numbers for the pitchers spot in the order.
One other thing that flashed into my mind the other day:
Is Rickie Weeks becoming a 3TO player? He has 7 HR, 38 BB (with HBP), and 41 K. With 194 AB, he has a 3TO outcome 44.33% of the time. With his minor league numbers, Russell Branyan hit a 3TO outcome 56% of the time. Thats just something to consider. Though I wonder what it would be if you make a new 3TO consisting of Walks, Strike-Outs, and Pop-ups.
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Waste of time
I also did not want to use previous ML numbers.
Why is that? Taking his outstanding numbers from a very small sample at AAA and then feeding them through a translation is going to be more accurate than the actual numbers he has put up in the major leagues? I just looked up these career numbers for kicks:
Bill Hall Career vs. RHP
.253/.303/.450 1807 PA
Russell Branyan Career vs. RHP
.232/.332/.480 1857 PA
Note that those are both against RHP. I expect that both players’ career numbers will continue to be the best guide to their future performance, and if you wanted to do the last 3 years for better accuracy, I wouldn’t complain. However, to completely ignore career numbers in favor of made-up numbers based on a short run at AAA is silly.
I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that this is the sort of thing that passes for analysis within the Brewers organization, though. Take a small sample of a guy who is struggling (Hall 46 games against RHP) and contrast them to a small sample of a guy who is tearing up weaker competition (Branyan 45 games at AAA), and then feed it to the JS and the broadcasters so the fans can lap up the conventional wisdom.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 26, 2008 8:45 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
The problem with hall is that he's been struggling for a year and a half now.
I think 2006 got our hopes up about what kind of player billy could be. Now he swings the same way believing he has the same power, but clearly doesn’t.
I liked the hall of 2005 that hit for average best.
No question that he's struggling
So why doctor the numbers? Branyan is not a good major league hitter, and using minor league translations for 46 games in AAA this year makes a bad case.
Hall has been constantly messed with by Yost (including the month-long benching last year) and so it’s easy to hold that up as an excuse for him. However, I think he’ll succeed if the team stops jerking him around. And that includes hitting instruction that places more value in “good at-bats” than in good results.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 26, 2008 8:56 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think Hall will ever be overly productive again
A solid bench player, but not a good starter. Average, at best. Braun didn’t hit well at the beginning of the season after being switched to LF, but he’s hitting well, now, so I don’t think it matters too much that Hall kept changing positions.
Comparing him to Braun?
That’s just a little unfair.
However, last year wasn’t just the move to center (which is harder than a move to left, since you mention it). They also slotted Hall in the cleanup spot to start the year, and then after he moved out of the cleanup spot he started to settle in a little bit and then injured his ankle and the whole season went to hell.
This year, he looks lost against all RHP. He never looked like that before, so I have to believe it’s a result of something in the offseason training or coaching. Whatever it is should be fixable, since his career line against RHP shows he hits them fine.
Kind of off-track, though. If you don’t like Hall, and think Branyan will do better, please do some analysis using relevant numbers.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 26, 2008 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions
I think Branyan will be about the same
But with slightly better defense. I just posted this because I thought it was INTERESTING not because I believe it, per se.
Though here are some “relevant” stats on hall: One year with more than 17 HR, a career BA of .260, career OBP of .318 and a career K/BB ratio of about 3.2/1. He has a decent career SLG (.463), but thats about all. Oh, and he can play several positions passably.
they have nothing in common
except the “Bra” at the front of the name, and perhaps the shaky defense. I guess the assumption is simply that Branyan has had a hot streak in AAA, and would also have been on a hot streak had he been up here… that’s certainly a stretch, but the bigger stretch would be to assume that he would continue those numbers.
by keephopealive on May 26, 2008 9:25 PM CDT up reply actions
And I wasn't saying that he is better than Braun
Just that they both switched positions, and Braun isn’t really hurting any. Your point about CF being more difficult than LF is valid; I agree. However, Braun doesn’t even have an error yet, despite him being the more defensively challenged one. I don’t know how hall did through this point in the OF last year, but I’m guessing he had a few errors.
Actually
I’m granting that Braun is a much better athlete and baseball player. Everything is going to be easier for him.
And he picked up an error today.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 26, 2008 9:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Did he?
Rats. I didn’t see the game, I’ve been gone most of the day.
Though you’re right, Braun is a better athlete. I’m really not that big a fan of either Hall or Branyan. I’m about ready for Gamel, errors or not.
I respect everything you write, Marty, I enjoy reading you’re stuff. Don’t think I believe that Branyans going to be a savior, I’m more expectant of possibly hitting .250.
I could be wrong
but I thought he got the error and then the official scorer took it away in the next half-inning.
Whenever prince is at first, he should charge the mound and yell "MEAT!"
ah
I was listening on the radio and Powell said it was an error. I missed the correction.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 26, 2008 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Definately changed from
an error to a double. Braun is still errorless in left.
"Get up, get up, get outta' here, GONE!!!"
My mistake
I should be in the habit of verifying everything from the radio broadcast. I love Uecker, but his attention to the game has become a little dicey in recent years, too.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 26, 2008 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Get Up! Get Up! Get Outta Here!
... caught at the wall.
Whenever prince is at first, he should charge the mound and yell "MEAT!"
Corrected Late
They seemed to have corrected it a bit late. It was a bit of a judgment call by the scorer. I probably would have scored it as a single with an error.
Maybe the ROTY title have given hetro man crushes to scorers.
Well, I don't really put faith in those numbers
I mean, Branyan leading the team in OPS? Yeah, right.
Just thought it was a little bit interesting.
well...
even if you use those numbers, i’ll take the higher OBP and SLUG…
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Indeed
That what Yost and Melvin think they’re going to get. I hope they move Hall (and I think I’m on record hoping that for at least 2 years now).
by Marty McSuperFly on May 26, 2008 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions
I wasn't clear
As a fan of Bill Hall, I’d like for the Brewers to trade him somewhere. He’s been blocked at every turn of his Brewers career, first by Hardy, then Koskie and Braun, and now Cameron. He’s moved each time and improved at each position. I’d like to see him get a decent shot at an everyday position somewhere where someone else isn’t breathing down his neck.
And, no, I don’t think he’s the greatest player out there, just my favorite. I’d like to see him succeed somewhere.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 26, 2008 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions
I know you meant trade him
And I figured for that reason, and I would like Hall to have a shot somewhere, and I would hope for him to succeed, though I really do think he is only mediocre at best. But as a fan of the Brewers, I am curious as to who you would like to see take over third?
ah
I don’t think the Brewers have a guy to play 3rd. If they move Hall, then they’re stuck with Branyan, Dillon and Counsell. I don’t follow the minor leaguers as closely as some others, so I can’t speak to Gamel, but what little I know seems to be that he won’t be ready for at least another year.
So, if they moved Hall, it would have to include a 3B guy in the transaction, kind of like the “getting Rolen the hell out of here” trade for Glaus. Or they’d have to settle for substandard production from the position, which they’re getting now. So I guess they’re best-off waiting on Hall to come out of his slump, at least until Gamel’s ready.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 26, 2008 9:52 PM CDT up reply actions
The problem is its been a two year slump.
I agree that we don’t have anyone who would be obviously better than Hall, though I do like the idea of platooning Branyan and Hall for now. (Unless Russell keeps up his 4 SO days). I don’t think any team would be willing to swap 3B at this point, anyway. I just really hope Gamel can figure out his defensive problems, and maybe get to Nashville this year sometime.
Semantics
He’s in the 2nd year of the slump….he still has 4 months before it’s a full 2 seasons. :)
by Marty McSuperFly on May 26, 2008 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions
True.
But that leaves me wondering: when does a slump that long become what the player is actually capable of? At some point, doesn’t it become more plausible that 2006 was just a career year and not an indicatino of what we can expect or hope for on an annual basis?
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 26, 2008 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions
I think that
Hall is more of a .250, 15-20 HR player. I also think that his power and average are inversely related.
2005 & 2006
2005 and 2006 were both really good years for Hall, for different reasons. 2005 was the year he hit really well and 2006 is the year he hit really far. As others have noted, his strength is when he’s putting consistent contact on the ball, and not when he’s hitting for power. If he could go back to being the 2005 guy, he’d have a lot more success, I think.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 26, 2008 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions
He's still owning lefties
I don’t have a problem with them giving a guy with a very similar major league line against righties a chance to play against them for a little bit. I think Ned needed to “shake things up” so when they go on a hot streak at home here he can take all the credit.
Whenever prince is at first, he should charge the mound and yell "MEAT!"
And to clarify
I want Branyan on the major league team anyway, lefty power off the bench is something that could come in handy.
Whenever prince is at first, he should charge the mound and yell "MEAT!"
but, but, Kendall
What does the Kendall shakeup mean? Was Ned wrong to bet the pitcher 8th? Or was the league wrong for beating the Brewers after Ned made such a bold move? I have to say, that Kendall shakeup was key to turning it around today.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 26, 2008 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions
It's funny
he hits a strategy that kinda works… and then says it wasn’t working well enough to continue after defending it for a few weeks. Not that it makes much difference anyway, but here I thought he was going to be rational and listen to objective analysis this year. But as soon as he thinks he has to make a change, that all goes out the window.
Whenever prince is at first, he should charge the mound and yell "MEAT!"
I don't think it was necessarily a success.
It obviously wasn’t a bust, either, but I don’t think there is enough to say it worked any better than having the pitcher bat ninth
I disagree, but the point is that Ned said it was working in the same conversation in which he announced the change.
And that makes no damn sense.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 27, 2008 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions
I wonder if there is a dilemma
about who to bat in front of the pitcher. JJ seems to be adversely affected and Billy sure doesn’t need to make hitting more of a challenge. Maybe not though, just a thought.
I just don't think they can until 2009, at the earliest...
... for the reasons mentioned by others below.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 26, 2008 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Looking over the post
I realize I didn’t show enough sarcasm toward the little amounts of faith I have in those numbers.
Branyan with a .385 OBP….if only….
to be fair
I was a little rough for the first comment. It’s been a rough year for a guy whose favorite players are Weeks, Hall, Villanueva and Sheets.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 26, 2008 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions
oh yeah
I’m always driving up and down the streets of whitefish bay following the trails of grit, just hoping for a glimpse of him at a quarry, or wherever the gritty people hang out.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 26, 2008 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Holy Crap
Next time I’m in Boston or New York, I’m gonna have one of those.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 26, 2008 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions
They even have a blog!
It’s called the grittyblog. Isn’t that kinda an oxymoron? Can a blog be gritty?
Whenever prince is at first, he should charge the mound and yell "MEAT!"
I thought they officially renamed that community White Person Bay?
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 26, 2008 10:08 PM CDT up reply actions
White Folks' Bay
I grew up there. We have a few Asian-Americans, but they’re good at math, so it’s okay. The black people have to be imported from the city via the 220 program.
Or at least that’s what I heard it was like outside my mother’s basement. Who needs vitamin D?
He's extremely quick and good.
so'd I
did you go to WFBHS? what year did you graduate?
or did you simply get homeschooled, ya know…seeing as you didn’t leave your house except under the cover of darkness?
by PagsBrewCrew on May 27, 2008 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions
I was rooting for them, too.
Weeks and Villy more so than the other two. I’ve never been big on Hall, but I never wanted him gone, either, until this year. But hey, you’ve got Sheets off to a great year thus far, and Villy is perfect in the BP unless I missed something today.
Could be worse.
You could add Turnbow and Gagne to that list.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 26, 2008 10:02 PM CDT up reply actions
THE REAL CONUNDRUM IS THIS
Hall & Longoria
or
Hall & Branyan
or
Branyan & Longoria
Lordz Of Vengeance....If I'm not drunk, I'm at work.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 26, 2008 10:23 PM CDT reply actions
Folks need to cool out.
Lordz Of Vengeance....If I'm not drunk, I'm at work.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 26, 2008 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Hall being "jerked around"
I don’t buy it. This isn’t a case of the team giving him 40 at bats like the Rocks gave to Jayson Nix or 20 at bats like the Giants gave to Rajai Davis. They have given him extended trials and only pulled him when his performance was so bad that there was no alternative.
Yes, CF is a fairly tough position to play, but not THAT tough. Guys do make that transition without falling part offensively. Moving to third base, a position he has played quite a bit in the past and a position similiar to his natural position of SS should NOT be an issue.
It is time to stop making excuses for Hall (or trying to find something else to pin on Yost if you prefer that theory) and just realize that he is what he is…..a guy who probably should be a .250 BA/low OPB/15 HR shortstop that happens to be blocked from playing SS on this team.
(I actually have advocated trading Hardy and moving Hall back to SS since I think Hardy’s reputation is greater than his value, but that is a separate issue. Needless to say, I don’t think this team can afford to really carry both.)
What is more likely than a Yost screwjob is the real possibility that the league adjusted to Hall. Remember that Hall really came out of nowhere with his power based on his rep coming through the system and is it so unreasonable that that 2006 season is just a bizarre outlier while the league figured out how to pitch him?
A true skeptic might also suggest that his profile looks a lot like a possible roid user, though I have never heard any rumors in that regard. Still, in this day and age, I think it remains possible (with many players).
In conclusion, as to the point of this thread, I agree that Branyan’s career numbers are more realistic than a translation of his AAA stats from this year only, but even those numbers (against RHP) are an upgrade over Hall against righties. I don’t think the organization believes that Branyan is a lifesaver. I think they just see a place to get better, and the numbers would suggest they are correct.
Hall's Outlier
I agree with that sentiment; that Hall’s 2006 was more of a “bizarre” outlier more than anything else.
Coming up through the minors, Hall had Juan Pierre-like numbers: .305 OBP/.387 SLG (2166 AB’s), with just 27 HR’s in 6 minor league seasons.
In his major league career prior to 2006, Hall hit 32 HR’s with a .306 OBP and .442 SLG in 1096 AB’s.
Then in 2006, he hit 35 HR’s with a .345 OBP and .553 SLG in 537 AB’s.
In one year, Hall doubled his career HR’s in only half the number of AB’s, and had an SLG over 100 points his major league norm. And the difference is even larger when you factor in his minor league trends.
Yet he was rewarded with a 4 yr/$24 million contract. And now, rather than basing his salary off his performance through the arbitration system, he’s on the books for the remaining $15.2 million over the next two years.
It was a bad contract, based on a season’s output that did not follow the trend he had set throughout his 8 previous professional seasons. And it was unrealistic to expect that he would again put up those kind of numbers over the majority of his extension.
What’s more, I have little sympathy for him when he expresses unrest due to being moved defensively or, most recently, being platooned with Branyan. As he told Tom Haudricourt today:
“Going on the last four years, nothing makes any sense,” (Hall) said. “My understanding is we needed a left-handed bat in the lineup and I was the odd man out. Does that make any sense? We’ll see what happens the next couple of days.”
He should know just how much sense it makes. He should know he has been putrid against righthanders and in no way deserves to keep being put in the lineup against them. And he should know that he was rewarded handsomly with a contract that most GM’s probably wouldn’t have given him at the time. If he really wants to make a case for fairness, he needs to find a way to put his game where his mouth is. Otherwise, he should keep his mouth shut while he laughs on the way to the bank with those bloated paychecks.
by Ball n Glove on May 27, 2008 1:37 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Arbitration
It’s possible the team wouldn’t have saved much money even if they had gone from arbitration to arbitration with Hall. He probably would have made at least $3.5M last season and about what he’s making this year. Even with the downturn in stats, he likely wouldn’t lose any salary (Kevin Mench’s $600k raise after 2006 attests to that), so the team would have saved maybe six million at the most over the next two seasons, or two Motas.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
But..
I don’t think you could say arbitration would’ve awarded him a $6.8 million salary in 2009 (assuming his 2008 remains sub-par), and it certainly wouldn’t mean he would be on the hook for $8.4 million in 2010, as that would have been his first year for free agency.
His $3 mil and $4.8 mil figures in 07 and 08 are fine, but the team is still stuck with the remaining $15.2 mil on his deal, $10 mil of which could probably have been avoided without that 4 year deal, which was signed after a year that didn’t fall in with his previous trends.
by Ball n Glove on May 28, 2008 12:39 AM CDT up reply actions
You're in good company
The overwhelming majority of fans (and probably Yost and Melvin) seem to completely agree with you. At this point, all that Hall can do is make the most of the opportunities granted to him. I’m guessing that he won’t have that opportunity against Hudson tonight.
by Marty McSuperFly on May 27, 2008 6:10 AM CDT up reply actions
really great analysis
the thing is it seems Hall believes his 2006 numbers. And that is the way he has approached his AB’s since. He takes big swings in an inappropriate number of times. Look at Corey putting up better numbers, even in power, and swings appropriate to the pitch. Hall needs this humiliation in my opinion, he seems to be laying it on Ned by his comments, but Ned is right here, and probably wont do a strict platoon because of Halls contract, and said he wouldnt- Ned and bad platooning goes on- but it is based on Halls contract. I actually do agree with the non-strict-platoon because we do want Hall more than Branyon. But here is where numbers and stats fail- Hall needs to eat crow- he needs- and others on the team need to be scared a little bit- offensively we suck! compared to what they should be doing. And I’m sick of it.
Ned’s got to go- it is small things- making our highest average hitters take on 3-0 when we are lacking in offense altogether, When changing the controversial lineup to the pitcher batting 9th, making no change to Kendall’s position within it- TO ME IS INACCUSABLE- I know you numbers guys are gonna jump on this- but – how many guys were left on third tonite? Last year Ned screwed with the lineup forever, and we all criticized him for it, this year he is playing a pat hand continuously. It is one or the other. I think he was told to be more consistent. Maybe I am wrong- I am sure someone will correct me with numbers, but this is the intangible with him- and it makes no sense to players, and it creates comments like that from Hall, he should well understand why is situation is in peril-WE EXPECT MORE. Everyone is performing below what we expected except for Hart and Kendall. He should not be making statements like that unless for the fact that Ned has lost the team in some sense. Hall should know exactly why he is there, JJ should enjoy the fact that the stats say he walks alot when opposing pitchers see him. which happened tonite, and shut up, and hit, our players are pissed and are showing it to us in appropriatly quiet ways. And they have reason- Prince and Braun switch- at their request- since- Prince hits base hits, Brauny for power- but Prince before Braun forever- shut the fuck up and get this right, switch them to what YOU- THE MANAGER THOUGHT WAS RIGHT- AND IS NOW- RIGHT. Ned has lost these guys and for good reason. Kendall puts up a great AB, and has been a great addition to this team, better than any expected, offensively and defensively, why put THE guy who can put up a great AB against any pitcher, and have him bat where he might just have to take a walk because there are 2 outs- to bring it back to this thread- Hall should be there.
My hope and prediction is this- the meeting in Nashville was to work out contracts for Kremblas to become bench coach and have the solidarity with the players, and give Ted the job and get this Ned experiment over with. You guys are great with numbers, I enjoy your input- but in the end chemistry outwieghs it- by numbers can you fire Ned? Maybe soon, but it will be too late.
"Just the kiss of the Hops"
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| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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Pittsburgh
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0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
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St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.16.2012 at 7:03 AM CST)
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