Expectations for J.J. Hardy?

by KLSnow on May 28, 2008 10:53 AM CDT

Sometimes the web leads me in interesting circles. I looked up Keith Ginter on BR after mentioning him in a comment, and noticed his 10th most similar player was J.J. Hardy. There's nothing all that similar about them, really, but it led me to click on J.J. Hardy, and catch this list of his 10 top comps through age 24. I've added the comments:

1. Jim Lefebvre: Second baseman, done as an everyday player at 25, out of the league at 30.
2. Rich Gedman: A catcher, spent three years as a regular, made the all star team in two of them. Career as a regular ended at age 26.
3. Jhonny Peralta: A shortstop. Jury is still out.
4. Jeff Blauser: A reliable if unspectacular shortstop who started in the big leagues for 9 seasons.
5. Ray Fosse: A catcher and a strange case. Hardy will most likely never collide with Pete Rose.
6. Dave Nilsson: Another catcher and a strange case. Hardy will probably never leave the team to go play for Team Australia, and he'll probably never report to camp at 300 lbs.
7. Sammy White: Yet another catcher. An All-Star at 24, gradually decomposed behind the plate and played regularly for 8 seasons despite posting OBP's below .310 in 5 of them.
8. Ray Durham: Probably the best-case scenario: Durham posted an OPS+ of 100 or more for 9 straight seasons from 26 to 34 and is still in the big leagues at 36.
9. Tony Batista: Consistently productive big league hitter who couldn't have been shoved out of clubhouses any faster if he had the plague. A two-time All Star, played for seven teams and hit 221 HR with an OBP under .300.
10. Rickie Weeks: Jury is also still out. He's a conversation for another time.

So here's what I want to know: What are your expectations for the career of J.J. Hardy? Is he a long-term productive big leaguer? Is he going to be done at 27? What do you think? And how did so many catchers end up on this list?

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My expectations for JJ

are pretty low. I think he can be a decent SS but last years power numbers were obviously an anomaly. He’s a guy I’d be willing to deal if we could find a partner that would give us something worthwhile in return. What that would be I’m not sure.

If he stays with the Crew I see him pretty much tied to that 7th spot in the lineup for the duration of his time with us.

Can't pitch Gagne in rain. He’s like the B-2 bomber of baseball.--TheJay

by verno329 on May 28, 2008 11:21 AM CDT 0 recs

.270 - .280 hitter with 12 to 15 HRs

Significantly above average defense.

by ol Pete on May 28, 2008 12:31 PM CDT 0 recs

Reminds me of Johnni Logan

Has a little power – Logan hit in double figures when shortstops had little power, Last years HR total for Hardy was an aberation – I think he will hit in the teens most years. Averages were similiar. All-Star appearences will be in the same ballpark. Both had average to below average speed, I see them as similar fielders – not great range, but steady
Johnny still flashes his WS ring around Milwaukee and I hope J.J. will be doing the sa,e soon.

by richfry on May 28, 2008 12:35 PM CDT 0 recs

Blauser

I think Jeff Blauser is a good comparison for what I expect out of J.J. – a good complimentary piece but not a championship-caliber player by himself.

by kingcharlesxii on May 28, 2008 12:49 PM CDT 0 recs

I was thinking Blauser at first

...but looking at the numbers I’m not so sure.

Blauser actually had better raw numbers in an era with less offense. Most importantly, Blauser walked a hell of a lot more.

J.J. had what looked to be a career year for power numbers last year, and his OPS+ was 100 on the nose. He’s really starting to look like a .260/.330/.390 type of hitter.

I think I agree with Levebfre as the top comp. JJ’s raw numbers will be better, but they’ll be worse when adjusted for park and era.

His defense? meh…

Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.

by shooty babitt on May 28, 2008 3:08 PM CDT up 0 recs

Blauser again

I didn’t mean as much that they were a perfect statistical match. It was more that they would both be decent regulars and could play SS on championship-caliber teams but they wouldn’t be the reason why the team won. Basically, I see J.J. as a slightly above average regular, much like Blauser was.

by kingcharlesxii on May 28, 2008 4:29 PM CDT up 0 recs

I think...

...”slightly above average” is too optimistic. I think he’s developed into a significantly below-average hitter with what looks like an average glove. I hope you’re right.

Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.

by shooty babitt on May 28, 2008 7:18 PM CDT up 0 recs

Below average overall, perhaps

But his career OPS is .738 and the average NL shortstop from 2005-2007 had OPS’s of .718, .740, and .738. Unless his hitting so far this year is his true level (and I don’t think you can say that based on 200 PA out of 1400 total), he’s not horrible for an NL SS.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 28, 2008 8:50 PM CDT up 0 recs

on this year

He started having just recovered from an unknown ailment that sounded fairly serious and caused him to lose ten pounds.

by ol Pete on May 30, 2008 8:12 AM CDT up 0 recs

Optimism

His walk rate is significantly up this year so that’s a good sign. He’ll almost certainly not hit 25+ HRs again but he probably won’t hit .250 all year either, especially if he can cut back on the strikeouts. I can see him settling into the 90-110 OPS+ range perennially, which is above average for a starting shortstop in the major leagues. Defense is always tough to grade statistically but from what I’ve seen he should be at least league average for a number of years there. While that’s not an all-star caliber player, it’s still quite valuable. League average is underrated by most people. :)

by kingcharlesxii on May 28, 2008 10:25 PM CDT up 0 recs

He will struggle to hit 10+ HRs

JJ has one pitch he can drive, the mid-thigh middle-in fastball. Everything else he is punch and judy. In two years he should be gone, as everything he can do Escobar should be able to do at least as well. If Hardy can be used to get starting pitching, he should be gone sooner.

by Getting Yosted on May 28, 2008 1:00 PM CDT 0 recs

JJ

i agree with ol pete. and he going to drive in 60-70 runs, nothing special be he seems to get the job done.

by BenSheets15 on May 28, 2008 1:12 PM CDT 0 recs

Something like

avg: .260-.270 range
hr: low teens
rbi: 50-70

I would agree that the power numbers he put up last year are out of line with what should be expected. My expectations are plenty good enough for me as long as he continues to be a sure fielder and an accurate arm. The accuracy of his throws are his biggest asset, based solely on the fact that Fielder is our first baseman, and often times he is the only infielder we have that I feel can be counted on to turn outs into outs on a consistent basis.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on May 28, 2008 1:51 PM CDT 0 recs

Coasting on reputation

Hardy’s defense is decent, but hardly as automatic as the broadcasters would have you believe. Granted, defensive metrics are tough to get a handle on, but these are fun numbers:

JJ Hardy       2007      2008
  RZR          .807      .792
  OOZ           64        31
  FPCT         .978      .980

Rickie Weeks
  RZR          .785      .807
  OOZ           35        18
  FPCT         .976      .987

I was actually a little suprised by these. I expected Rickie to have more plays out of his zone than JJ. Still, the numbers show that either using traditional fielding percentage or something new and shiny like Revised Zone Rating, Weeks and Hardy are pretty similar. That’s good news for Weeks, who has improved in the field, but that isn’t good news for Hardy. He’s supposed to be a top defender, not just the best in the Brewers infield.

For comparison, a pseudorandom collection of 2008 RZRs:

Jose Reyes .852
Ryan Theriot .845
Miguel Tejada .873
Brandon Phillips .882
Mike Fontenot .886
Jimmy Rollins .794
Troy Tulowitzki .920

by Marty McSuperFly on May 28, 2008 2:20 PM CDT up 0 recs

RZR

here’s THT’s definition

RZR (or ZR)(Link)
Revised Zone Rating is the proportion of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he successfully converted into an out. Zone Rating was invented by John Dewan when he was CEO of Stats Inc. John is now the owner of Baseball Info Solutions, where he has revised the original Zone Rating calculation so that it now lists balls handled out of the zone (OOZ) separately (and doesn’t include them in the ZR calculation) and doesn’t give players extra credit for double plays (Stats had already made that change). We believe both changes improve Zone Ratings substantially. To get a full picture of a player’s range, you should evaluate both his Revised Zone Rating and his plays made out of zone (OOZ). You can read more about the Revised Zone Ratings in this article.

My emphasis.

RZR doesn’t work for players on teams that use infield shifts. Hardy has had 101 balls into his zone and has made 121 plays…

Jose Reyes has made 9 plays OOZ, Hardy leads all NL shortstops by a Jose Reyes in plays out of zone.

Personally, i won’t trust defensive metrics much until they account for the fielder’s starting position and how hard the ball was hit.

For comparison, weeks is #2 in the NL in plays OOZ and leads third place by an Orlando Hudson.

Also, 31 plays OOZ to 18 plays OOZ are not similar. It’s the equivalent of about 10 runs saved. So less than a third of the season and Hardy has already saved 1 full win more than Weeks.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 28, 2008 2:50 PM CDT up 0 recs

excellent points

Additionally there is no measure of reliability of the raw data. I don’t even think there is anything beyond a crude description of how it is accumulated.

by ol Pete on May 28, 2008 3:09 PM CDT up 0 recs

I know the definition

And that’s why I included OOZ for Weeks and Hardy. Are you concerned because I left it off the pseudorandom list?

My main point is that Hardy is not as high above the other infielders as the broadcasters like us to believe. He has made more OOZ plays than Weeks, and he gets the nod as the better defender, but it’s not a slap-the-forehead obvious conclusion. Hardy’s defense just isn’t as great as advertised.

Feel free to fill in OOZ for the rest of the shortstops. I’m pretty sure they won’t outweigh Hardy’s low RZR. OOZ is important, but you don’t get to throw away the stat you don’t like.

Also, 13 OOZ = 10 runs saved? That seems a little excessive. You’re basically saying that every time a guy leaves his zone to make a play, it saves a run.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 28, 2008 3:20 PM CDT up 0 recs

another look

Yunel Escobar (fabulous SS) has the highest RZR in baseball right now for a SS at .877, he’s made 9 plays fewer than Hardy OOZ. If you take 9 of Hardy’s OOZ plays, and make them BIZ plays, hardy’s RZR shoots up to .881, best in all of baseball.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 28, 2008 2:54 PM CDT up 0 recs

Is Tulowitzki not a shortstop?

by Marty McSuperFly on May 28, 2008 3:21 PM CDT up 0 recs

Just guessing

But he might not have played enough this year to qualify for the list jacob was looking at.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 28, 2008 3:56 PM CDT up 0 recs

I think you're right

And, really, if this were to carry on, we’ll have to start using 2007 data, because the small sample of 2008 is going to be prone to distortions.

It does look like JJ tends to play closer to center than the zone rating systems expect a shortstop to be, and so he gets a higher number of OOZ plays (and a larger number of plays in the zone that he can’t get to). Looking at last year, Hardy had 64 plays out of the zone, and missed 70 plays in the zone, so it’s likely that if he played back toward 3rd a little more, he’d cover his zone better. Contrast with Jose Reyes, who missed 51 plays in the zone, and made 58 out of zone. I’m willing to bet that when all is said and done, the metrics treat everyone fairly, and that they can be used to rate defenders with a reasonable amount of accuracy.

by Marty McSuperFly on May 28, 2008 4:15 PM CDT up 0 recs

when I read people putting out the various ZRs

they’ve said that due to the variety of flaws in the statistic, its value lies in evaluating careers not seasons.

by ol Pete on May 30, 2008 8:16 AM CDT up 0 recs

JJ is as much an enigma as Weeks

I agree that with the glove he has been somewhat mediocre.

With the bat, I don’t know what to think. In 2005, e was gawd-awful the first half of his rookie year, but had the tremendous second half. Then he lost 2006 to injury, but had a tremendous first half last year. I guess since he was young, rather than averaging over time, it felt like he had recovered from his injuries, and was learning how to dominate. Since then he’s been atrocious though. I guess he is just unbelievably streaky or maybe pitchers adjusted to him.

It’s the same with Weeks. I think we all thought he had finally recovered from his injury and turned the corner at the end of last year. You hate to give up on either of them too early, but when is enough, enough?

by keephopealive on May 28, 2008 2:57 PM CDT 0 recs

I be content

with Jeff Blauser

Lordz Of Vengeance....If I'm not drunk, I'm at work.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 28, 2008 5:54 PM CDT 0 recs

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