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Rich Hill Goes to Iowa

The title of this post is about the Cubs, but really, the post itself is much more about the Brewers.

Last night, Rich Hill walked the first four guys he faced.  Piniella pulled him from the game, and it was announced that Jon Lieber will replace him in the rotation.  Hill obviously has some issues to work through, and the longer it takes him to recover, the harder it will be for a contending team to put him back in the rotation.

This, of course, happened on the same day as the announcement regarding Gallardo's season-ending injury.  It's pretty clear that the loss of Gallardo for the season is worse than Hill's wildness (Hill cold be back in a month, for one thing), but  the effect may be closer than you think.

Before the season, I noted that the Cubs and Brewers rotations lined up very evenly.  You can argue about who is better in each slot, but there are a lot of similarities if you aren't tied to the "official" position on who was the "#2" or "#3" starter:

  • The ace: Sheets / Zambrano
  • The young stud: Gallardo / Hill
  • The $10MM vet: Suppan / Lilly

Dempster or Marquis would be a decent analogue to Bush, though the biographical similarities break down in the last two spots.  Statistically, though, Dempster/Marquis will probably be about equivalent to Villa/Parra in 2008.

Both young studs are out for a while, and that leads us to:

  • Initial reinforcements: Bush / Lieber
  • 2008 ZiPS ERAs: 4.64 / 4.85

It'll take a lot more than this simple comparison to evaluate the impact of losing Gallardo, and it doesn't have as much to do with the Cubs as I'm suggesting here.  But if there's a moral to the story, it's this: sh*t happens.  It happens to every team, every year.  It happened to us yesterday, and it happened to our rival as well. 

The real test of any baseball team is what happens next.  That applies both in the psychological sense--can the team pull together and win despite losing a key player?--and the front office sense--is the team built to withstand a major injury?

The Brewers aren't as pitching-deep as they were two months ago, and that's been exposed in a way that most of us didn't anticipate.  But whatever you think of Dave Bush, he is very possibly the best #6 starter in the big leagues.  By that standard, Lieber isn't bad either, but he probably won't be as good.  The Cubs will survive yesterday's blow, and so will we.

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thanks jeff!

you just made me feel a hell of a lot better!!!

by baseballdan1092 on May 3, 2008 4:19 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't know what's real any more

In my MLB 2k8 season, I just lost Bush for the season, but then Gallardo came out the next game and beat the Red Sox 7-1 in a complete game with 12Ks. I think I like video game world better right now.

Oh, and losing Bush for the season means that Vargas is back in the rotation—Hey Pete, want to join my video game world? :)

by Marty McSuperFly on May 3, 2008 4:47 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

See if you can get FSN to televise your games...

I’d love to see Gallardo pitch again…

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 4, 2008 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That'd be fun

I like playing video games as much as the next guy, but they’re also fun to simply watch, when the person who’s playing knows how to play.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on May 5, 2008 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

on a more serious note

I hope i’m wrong as can be about Bush. You guys can get me drunk and write “chump” on my forehead while i’m passed out after he serves up crow.

If he is so-so, doesn’t it make sense to have Narveson or DiFelice up for a start just to see how they do? Perhaps they’ll rise to the occasion. I’d guess that the argument against would be that the coaches see them perform and judge them not worthy, but it seems like evaluating pitching isn’t a strength of the Brewers.

Am I wrong about that?

by ol Pete on May 3, 2008 5:54 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Brilliant set-up.

You said “this is really about the Brewers”, then started talking about Hill’s struggles. You had me thinking, “No WAY is he actually going to suggest a trade!” haha, clever, and great points. Although for our sake I hope Lieber is that best 6th starter you talk about. Godspeed, Yovani.

Alan Trammell: Assistant (to the) Manager

by northsider on May 4, 2008 12:18 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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