One-third down, two-thirds to go...

by heybatterbatter on May 30, 2008 2:13 PM CDT Comment 13 comments

Ever since I can remember, projecting a player's stats after a third or half the season was part of the fun of baseball. About this time each year I would multiply by three each stat to project how my favorite players will perform for the year. Of course, this kind of projection is of little use other than it being fun to do.

Last night was the 54th game: one-third of 2008 is history. How are my guys (or yours) doing?

I invite you to look at the players numbers today, multiply by three each of the cumulative stats such as ABs, hits, SBs, etc and then compare them with their career numbers and maybe your own expectations for them this year. Are they on the right track? What do they need to do to improve? Or, better yet, why are they performing beyond expectations? Lastly, what is the trend over their career?

Corey Hart?

Jason Kendall?

Bill Hall?

Jeff Suppan?

Mike Cameron?

Salomon Torres?

Rickey Weeks?

_____________ ?

Remember, it's just fun.

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hm

was it a conscious decision to leave prince off the list, or did his lack of production just cause you to forget about him? his number of steaks consumed this season is way out of line with my expectations along with the rest of his power numbers. Scott Boras must be thrilled.

"You guys know me. I take a long time to analyze things."
- Ned Yost

by SunglassesAtNight on May 30, 2008 2:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Prince Fielder?

Too painful to analyze. Let’s just say “there’s PLENTY of time left in the season….”

Notice how he falls forward onto home plate on EVERY swing. I wonder if a comparison of videos from last year and this would show a nasty trend toward overswinging. Why would a guy that large have to crush everything that’s pitched to him? I don’t get it.

Personally, I think the new haircut is a loser. He can eat anything he wants. Whatever loosens him up! ;^)
The earplugs helped him tonight, tho.

by heybatterbatter on May 30, 2008 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't lose sight of the fact that he's hitting .270...

... which doesn’t appear to be far from his the top of his capabilities on that front. If he was overswinging consistently, I doubt his BA would be that high. I’ve seen the falling over the plate business too, but whatever’s going on, I don’t think overswinging is the problem on more than an anecdotal basis.

There’s a regression to the mean coming that’s going to be an awful lot of fun to watch. With two homers in two days, we may be on the front end of it even now.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jun 1, 2008 8:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let’s just say

"there’s PLENTY of time left in the season…."

In fact, he seems to be putting a lot of balls in play, anecdotally speaking.

His numbers for Ks, BBs and doubles are in line; it’s just HRs and RBIs where he’s horribly behind LAST year. Actually, his numbers this year are eerily similar to his 2006 stats. Was last a fluke?

Braun is taking a lot of those RBIs for himself. Braun still seems to be benefiting from being ahead of Prince in the lineup.

In this season of HOPE and CHANGE, how about regression toward the mean for Fielder, and then blow the hell past it on the OTHER side. .270 for the season, 52 HRs, and 145 RBIs.

Let’s forget about the one-third exercise and BELIEVE. Much more fun. I’m on your side.

by heybatterbatter on Jun 1, 2008 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kendall

I like how if you take away the team’s first nine games, Kendall is hitting .207/.297/.271. I think it’s indicative of the team’s general offensive malaise but Prince is third among team regulars in OPS behind Braun and Hart (and he’s within 100 points of Braun).

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 30, 2008 4:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Kendall vs. Estrada

Kendall has been infinitely better behind the plate. (I LOVED the DP a couple nights ago.)

by keephopealive on May 30, 2008 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

awesome play

"You guys know me. I take a long time to analyze things."
- Ned Yost

by SunglassesAtNight on May 30, 2008 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not fair

Estrada was involved in plenty of double plays last year. Oh wait, you meant on defense.

by molitorfan on May 30, 2008 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

TJ,

I love the stuff you come up with, man! I look for your posts of arcane, but fascinating baseballology. Sorry for the suck up…..

Kendall has been a competent hitter throughout his career. So was Estrada. Old catchers come to Milwaukee and Yost to take their final swings. At the current rate, Rivera will sub for Kendall 18 times for 2008. That’s 138 games for Kendall, a 34 year old. He could be running like Estrada by September, too.

by heybatterbatter on May 30, 2008 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

What can I say? I like weird baseball trivia. Maybe if Kendall wears down (or balloons out?) by September, another aging catcher with a Wisconsin pedigree can step in, as Rambling Al theorizes. Alternatively, the team will pick up some guy DFA’d in August to start and avoid making Kendall’s 2009 option automatic. Where’s Dave Nilsson?

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 31, 2008 12:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, the "avoid the auto option" gambit

how silly of me to miss that one. Easy to do if you’re basically a fan of the game, not so much the INDUSTRY. Kudos to “Al” on the baseball chatter; though, I do wish he’d cut the dittohead political stuff, where he’s definitely “out of his league.” I can listen to Fox News or Rush myself, if I cared to….

by heybatterbatter on May 31, 2008 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Multiply by three

Weeks should be hitting .600 by the end of the year!

Whenever prince is at first, he should charge the mound and yell "MEAT!"

by Jordan M on May 31, 2008 11:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hah!

“multiply by three each of the cumulative stats” – the key word being “cumulative”

Gosh, if Weeks could only pull that feat off….

A story for the ages…. I’d love to have the film rights!

by heybatterbatter on May 31, 2008 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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