Tuesday's Frosty Mug
BDD Recaps
BP Postseason Odds: 79.2 and 8.2% to win the Central.
Yesterday's off day was also a pretty quiet one around the web. In fact, the biggest news is likely that there will be no news surrounding the closer's spot.
On closers, Eric Seidman at Fangraphs is working to develop a new stat that's more accurate than a pure save total. I like where he's going with it.
In his most recent "That's Debatable" at ESPN.com, Jerry Crasnick says the Brewers have too many pitching issues to overcome to be considered the top team in the NL Central.
Reportedly, the Mets are interested in Turnbow. Doug Melvin is sitting by the phone.
If you needed something disturbing to help you get through the day, here's Brian Shouse juxtaposed into classic art. Is juxtaposed the word I wanted? Perhaps I'm using it in the wrong situation...just like the Brewers use Shouse.
Here are the results from last week's Fan Opinion Poll:
- 52% of voters thought the Brewers made the right decision keeping Manny Parra on the roster and sending down Dave Bush. Of course, it's a moot point now.
- 70% of voters thought Mike Cameron should bat second. No other position got 10% of the vote.
- 52% thought Bill Hall should've swung away in the ninth inning of last Sunday's game. 43% favored the decision to bunt.
- 58% of voters were satisfied with the 13-pitcher roster. Also a moot point.
- Of those dissatisfied, 48% wanted more position players on the roster. Welcome back, Joe Dillon.
- Ned Yost's approval rating is down to 40%, with 32% disapproval and 26% unsure. He was at 47%/22%/29% last week.
- Doug Melvin's approval rating is up slightly, at 84%, with 4% disapproval and 10% unsure. He was at 83%/4%/11% last week.
- 97% of voters approve of the Cameron signing and position changes.
- 60% approve of the Gagne signing, with 17% disapproval. That's up from 47% approval last week.
- 34% of voters think the Brewers shouldn't offer Ben Sheets a new contract until after the season. 31% think the Brewers should offer him a contract now and 24% think they shouldn't offer him one at all.
On injuries:
Braves IF Martin Prado injured his thumb sliding into first base in a 14-7 game. He's out 6-8 weeks.
Mariners P Jarrod Washburn had to leave last night's start with tightness in his right calf.
Rockies P Kip Wells will require surgery to remove a blood clot in his right hand.
Non-Brewer related: We've been talking an awful lot in the comments lately about umpiring. The Book has an interesting post today on Angel Hernandez and how he skews umpiring statistics. I'd try to offer a better summary of it, but the more I read, the more confused I get.
That's all for today. Post your suggestions for linkage in tomorrow's Mug and/or suggested poll questions in the comments. Drink up.
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Wow
If those guys think Angel Hernandez does a poor job at calling balls and strikes then I can safely say that they haven’t even taken a glance at the real data.
by dixieflatline on May 6, 2008 9:45 AM CDT 0 recs
innovative way to assemble a baseball team.
new take on player evaluation.
I like to think my knowledge of baseball is strong but I also feel I have good instincts. My GUT instinct last night watching Soriano run hard from around the bases was to clench my butt and hope he doesnt strain anything. I can attack Soriano as well as the next guy and Im not a ledge jumper either (although I have been on occasion in previous seasons) Fact remains——all the opinions I can generate regarding Alfonso Soriano meant nothing to me when my first instinct/gut reaction/involuntary thought was that I did not want to get him hurt, therefore IMO, wherever the man is in the lineup he adds a lot of value to this team.
Some owner should take a chance on that guys butt for GM. Hook it up to some electrodes, and see how many baseball games that team could win.
Bring Back The Old Logo!
by jacob on May 6, 2008 10:48 AM CDT 0 recs
oh dear
singlehandedly, you maintain the happy interblog relationship :).
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
May 6, 2008 11:54 AM CDT
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i have a google alert
for “baseball “instincts”” so i’m looking specifically for the occurrences where instincts is in scare quotes. most often, these baseball “instincts” are involuntary physiological responses. that reading list is pure hilarity.
that this ridiculousness is interbloggy is mere coincidence, and “not at all” correlated with “who” is “saying” it.
Bring Back The Old Logo!
by jacob on
May 6, 2008 1:19 PM CDT
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haha, that's great
is it wrong that my baseball instincts all involve
a) ducking, or
b) spreadsheets?
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
May 6, 2008 1:23 PM CDT
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Very nice.
Spreadsheets are actually my first instinct.
by KLSnow on
May 6, 2008 1:57 PM CDT
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they're mine, too
unless I’m sitting at field level and a foul ball is headed toward my face.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
May 6, 2008 2:07 PM CDT
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The probability of the ball hitting your face is very small
Stop betraying your humanity and act like the cold, calculating robot we all know you aspire to be.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
May 6, 2008 2:16 PM CDT
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fair enough
but my sister got knocked out by a foul ball when we were kids.
a biased sample, I know, but you don’t forget that kind of thing.
and anyway, it doesn’t matter how small the probability is if the resulting pain is sufficiently large.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
May 6, 2008 2:33 PM CDT
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the black swan theory
in a nutshell,something that has a very low probability of happening but is very bad if it does happen
Good time for Prince's fifth homer
by molitorfan on
May 6, 2008 6:25 PM CDT
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Yovani Gallardo wrecking his knee hurdling a man?
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
May 6, 2008 9:48 PM CDT
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What would the butt do when Turnbow takes the mound?
Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.
by shooty babitt on
May 6, 2008 12:57 PM CDT
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good point
how would you separate the good clenches from the bad clenches?
Bring Back The Old Logo!
by jacob on
May 6, 2008 1:19 PM CDT
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When do you know
if the butt is trying to do too much with it?
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on
May 6, 2008 2:46 PM CDT
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Answering my own question
When it tries to take it the other way.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on
May 6, 2008 2:46 PM CDT
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Is it ok
for it to try to pull the fastball middle-in?
by Getting Yosted on
May 6, 2008 3:22 PM CDT
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No doubt about it!
Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.
by shooty babitt on
May 6, 2008 4:45 PM CDT
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A look at our bullpen
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-save-speculator-milwaukee-brewers/
The Hardball Times analyzes the Brewers bullpen in a fantasy-based column. After a brief look, I am convinced that Gagne should not lose his job to any of the other mediocrity in our bullpen just yet.
Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."
by DaleCoop14 on May 6, 2008 10:50 AM CDT 0 recs
Right
I like to think that the consensus is building that the Brewers don’t have a closer. None of those guys should be guaranteed the closer role, including Gagne.
by Marty McSuperFly on
May 6, 2008 1:06 PM CDT
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Based on the series in Houston
Mota is now the ‘eighth inning guy’, so using Yostian Logic the next person in line for closer.
by Getting Yosted on
May 6, 2008 1:13 PM CDT
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Doug from the Haudicourt blog
This I like:
Melvin is in Brevard County, Fla., watching the team’s Class A club there.
I am glad Doug is going on the road and seeing the minor league teams for himself. Get a chance to talk to the coaching staff down there face to face and such. This however I don’t like:
Melvin didn’t see the game Sunday in Houston but is aware of how Gagne blew his major league-high fifth save of the season by surrendering two ninth-inning runs in what became an 8-6, 12-inning loss.
MLB has invented this thing called MLB.tv where you can go back and watch a whole game or just an inning or two whenever you want. So say if you are watching the A+ team during the Brewer game when you get back to the hotel or maybe the next morning you can watch the game. Maybe that isn’t exactly Doug job but if I was the GM I sure would want to see what went wrong when my $10 mil closer blew another save.
by dixieflatline on May 6, 2008 12:26 PM CDT 0 recs
eh, doesn't bother me
statheads can take this too far, but there’s not a whole lot of value for a big-picture guy (like a GM should be) to be watching every inning. it can actually be harmful—you start thinking that because you saw something, THAT’S the thing that matters, when really it’s an irrelevant data point. The role of the coaching staff is to make sometimes-wrong judgments like that, while Doug should be saying, “101 projection systems can’t be wrong!”
Or something.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
May 6, 2008 12:58 PM CDT
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I see your point
by dixieflatline on
May 6, 2008 1:05 PM CDT
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In Moneyball
Lewis wrote that Billy Beane rarely watched a full game with the A’s, it would make him too nervous.
Whenever prince is at first, he should charge the mound and yell "MEAT!"
by jihad on
May 6, 2008 7:44 PM CDT
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He also wrote about men with breasts
So there.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
May 6, 2008 9:49 PM CDT
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Question for the Fan Poll
How about: When will Jeff Weaver make his Brewers debut?
by silverwolf on May 7, 2008 8:37 AM CDT 0 recs
Only if there’s a “Weaver or DiFelice?” question too.
He's the round mound of profound
by drezdn on
May 7, 2008 10:31 AM CDT
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