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Step Away From the Ledge

I'll be the first to admit that a weekend sweep at the hands of the Astros sucked.  Just about everything that can go has gone wrong, and it's painful to watch.

But we all need to take a step back.  We're a month into the season, we've got an anemic offense, an imploding bullpen, a bunch of five-inning starters, and...we're above .500.

That's right: Nothing is clicking on all cylinders, and we're on pace for about 84 wins.

84 wins, of course, won't do the job this year.  But there is also no way that the Brewers offense will remain in the bottom half (!) of the league in runs, home runs, slugging, and generally non-suckiness.  There is no way that Manny Parra will stay in the rotation if he can't get through the 5th inning.  There is no way the bullpen will be this bad over the course of the season, and making things better, there's no chance we'll continue to play this many extra-inning games.

Making all of this even better, there is no way that the Cardinals are really a 100+ win team (that's their current pace) and especially with no Rich Hill, I find it hard to believe that the Cubs are a 90+ win team (their current pace).

Eventually, I think I'll have to just ignore baseball commentary for the first two months of the year.  For every 10 "trends" that people think they spot, maybe--maybe--one of them is for real.  You can look at this Brewers team and think that Melvin did a horrible job, putting together a better defense at the expense of a disastrous bullpen, no back-rotation starting, and a mediocre offense...

...or you could realize that we're somehow winning games in what could easily be the worst 30-game stretch of the season. 

Every baseball team has bad games, bad weeks, and bad months.  If we were scuffling and going 16-15 in July, we wouldn't be having this conversation.  But since it's early May, it's hard to resist the temptation to look at the rate stats (oh no, Villa's ERA is 5.50!) and multiply the counting stats by five (oh no, Prince is only going to hit 20 home runs!). 

Don't do it.  This is a good team, and it's a pretty decent team even with Yovani Gallardo.  We'll be playing important games in September, and it won't be because Doug radically revamped our slumping roster.  He knows better than that, and we should too.

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what is and isn't troublesome

I know it’s an odd cut of the data, but we’re a below .500 team over the past 162 games. Lots of things have changed from 2007 to 2008, but I don’t think we want to overestimate our team either. I am not troubled by our offense sputtering. Prince and Braun we know can hit, and we also know that JJ and Rickie are streaky hitters and we’re seeing their bad streaks.

More troublesome to me is our pitching. The loss of Gallardo really hurts, which doesn’t require any sample size to see. Turnbow’s decline from last year is also pretty evident. Gagne has looked mediocre at best over the second half of last season, spring training, and a fifth of 2008. Finally, our inability to go deep into games is putting undue wear on our bullpen.

Still, I agree there is reason for optimism: (1) i doubt it will take 90 games to win the division, (2) Kendall has been much better than expected, (3) Bill Hall’s pop has returned to his bat, (4) Corey Hart shows no signs of a sophomore slump, (5) with the exception of Gagne our offseason acquisitions have all been solid.

by keephopealive on May 6, 2008 1:53 PM CDT   0 recs

Colorado

Last year at the All Star Break, I remember baseball announcers talking about the rain delayed game the Rockies were playing, and how it shouldn’t matter because they were completely out of the race.

While the feats and luck that were required for them to pull it off were amazing, the Brewers aren’t in nearly as bad of position they were, and can still easily come through.

If the Cubs are leading the division on Sept. 25th, and are no more than three games ahead of the Brewers, there’s still hope.

He's the round mound of profound

by drezdn on May 6, 2008 2:02 PM CDT   0 recs

It was a helluva lot easier to be a Brewer fan when I expected them to lose 90 games. This is horrible.

by Braunstalker on May 6, 2008 2:08 PM CDT   0 recs

I also believe we would be 19 and 12 if the umps could try and be as good as the ones in my softball league.

by Braunstalker on May 6, 2008 2:50 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The sky isn't falling....

It is a bit cloudy though.

Frankly, I don’t think we should worry about the Cards and Cubs. We just need to win 90 games.

Our hitting will be fine and we will score plenty of runs. Like everyone else I’m more worried about the pitching. We just do not have much margin for error. If our current group stays healthy, and if they pitch as well as we think they should, we’ll be ok.

We could always pick up that big pitcher that always seems to be available at the trade deadline, but would we want to trade LaPorta for a half-season ace?

by grant76 on May 6, 2008 3:24 PM CDT   0 recs

the answer is ...

no. That’s actually the worst part of Gallardo’s injury. This was going to be the one year when we could afford to have two aces. Next year Sheets is gone, and it is never worth a team like the Brewers to sell off big, big prospects for a one year or half year guy.

by keephopealive on May 6, 2008 3:35 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

This year

was, sadly, what I see as our window.

by Braunstalker on May 6, 2008 4:54 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Good dose of perspective Jeff

I personally try not to focus on what other teams are doing or scoreboard watch for at least the first two months of the season. At the end of May we take a look at where are in comaprison to others in our division but until then I try to focus solely on what the team I follow is doing. As we learned last year, it doesn’t matter what kind of a lead you have in April and May when it comes to September

Can't pitch Gagne in rain. He’s like the B-2 bomber of baseball.--TheJay

by verno329 on May 6, 2008 3:43 PM CDT   0 recs

My theory on Parra

At the beginning of the season, some folks (including myself and several others on this site) expressed concern that Parra was going to ramp towards 200 innings too quickly if he opened the season in the rotation and that given the relatively low number of innings he threw in 2007, this might cause an arm injury.

Obviously, Parra read those posts, got scared, and is self-regulating his total inning count by blowing up every time he reaches the 5th.

It really couldn’t be clearer. :)

"He just needs to eat some bananas." - Lou Piniella

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on May 6, 2008 4:00 PM CDT   0 recs

So Parra is really thinking of us

I guess thats kinda nice. I’d rather have to decide later in the year if we need to skip some starts for him, but its nice to know he cares ;)

Can't pitch Gagne in rain. He’s like the B-2 bomber of baseball.--TheJay

by verno329 on May 6, 2008 5:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

This team IS on the edge of disaster

The Brewers are damn lucky to be .500. So I have a hard time being excited about the team right now. So many things have to change for them to win 90 games.

The main problems I see are:
1. They cant hit right handed pitchers. Besides Fielder no player on this team has ever consistently hit right handers. Why does everyone believe they suddenly will?? As a team they are currently 25th in avg and 21st in OBP versus RHP…..that isnt going to win alot of games
2. The starters are basically down to an ace and four #4/5 starters that cant pitch more than 5 innings. I see no signs that the starters are going to get much better this year.
3. The bullpen is going to get worn out by all these 5 or less inning starts
4. Gagne is struggling and there is NO alternative. If you put torres/riske/mota in the closer then who fills the role they vacated? Gagne?? We saw how well that worked in Boston. McClung…i hope not.

To me, #1 is the biggest thing that I just don’t see changing. We are headed for another .500 season. The 24-10 start last year is beginning to look more and more like a fluke.

by Crouching Tiger on May 7, 2008 9:24 AM CDT   0 recs

in '07

the brewers had an OPS of .755 against RHP, the NL average vs. RHP was .751

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 7, 2008 11:57 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

starters

Bush has an ERA of 6.46, Villy has an ERA of 5.56, Parra has an ERA of 5.86.

All three were projected by every single projection system to pitch better than that, and i know of no projection system that accounts for the improved defense behind them. there are no signs that these starters WILL NOT get much better this year.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 7, 2008 12:02 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

actually.

my system doesn’t account for the actual defense, but it does regress defense quite a bit. so MINER figures that they’re pitching in front of a below-average but decent defense, not an awful one.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on May 7, 2008 12:22 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

cool

do you just regress BABIP toward league average? alot right? like 80%?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 7, 2008 12:38 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm not sure offhand how much

I don’t think 80%, but at least 50%. Well, altogether it might be 80%, since everything is regressed for individual player stats, so then for pitchers the team-defense adjustment is on top of that.

I think I also regress UER, though not as aggressively.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on May 7, 2008 1:00 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I do believe

that Dan Szymborski includes a defensive component in his ZiPS pitchers projections, though I have no idea how detailed it is.

by Zeyes on May 7, 2008 12:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

bullpen

Still below average in Relief innings, and above average in relievers. Torres has pitched a lot of innings. Bullpen wear is not going to be a problem this year.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 7, 2008 12:03 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Flukes

24-10 is a .706 winning percentage. If a team kept up that pace all season, they’d win 114 games. Now, if you subscribe to the idea that last year’s team probably could have won 90 games, their 24-10 stretch in terms of winning percentage was .150 above what they “should” have been playing at. Of course that’s a fluke.

It’s no more flukish, though, than that same team going 14-20 over that stretch, is it? It’s less flukish than a team playing .500 over a similar stretch, too.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on May 7, 2008 1:42 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

WOW

I left town for work on Friday feeling fairly good (if not a bit hung over) from the Cubs series. I then find out through a buddy’s text message that we lost gallardo for the year and have yet to see us win since. and your telling me not to jump? maybe if i had children, i’d consider it, but you’ll have to do a better job talking me down than that. Unfortunately, I have more work to do, but there is major cause for concern. If you cannot see that, you are blind. there a very few bright spots for us and we know sheets is going to go down at some point, after which he will be a free agent at the end of the year.

by SunglassesAtNight on May 7, 2008 9:19 PM CDT   0 recs

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