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The "Law" of Averages

It has been a tough stretch lately.No hitting. No starting pitching. No releif pitching. And often a combination of these factors. But take heart, Brew fans. Every dark cloud has a silver lining.

Last year we finally had a winning season. 2008 was going to be the year of the playoffs. It has been over a quarter century. This time, the law of averages is in our favor, It is time for the breaks to go our way.

Yesterday, a bloop single lead to the Maelins first 3 runs. Sunday a bad call by the first-base umpire in the 9th inning gave the Astros a 4th out - and a chance to tie. Remember all the Astro's softly hit balls that turned into runners in all 3 weekend games? When is the last time you heard or saw a Brewer hard hit ball down the line be called fair? Finally, recall that the Crew was not playing great even before this streak - but they had a winning record,

Was last year a fluke caused by many above average or even career seasons? Sure, there were a few, but remember what Bill James said about most players getting better until they peak around age 26 to 28. How many players are getting nearer to that peak? What are the odds that things will get better this season. The everyday players will bring up their averages sharply and start hitting the long ball (althouigh I doubt they will match 2007's total of HR's). The starters will bring their ERA's down into the 3's or 4's (Ben will be in the 2's). The releivers will impove as a whole, and  the closer will remain a problem (but not as bad as now). Because this will all happen in a compressed "season" (129 vs, 162 games), we should win 70 to 75 more games this year,

Let the turn-around begin! And let the fun resume in Brew Crew land!

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So you're saying math is on our side?

Steve
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com

by stigmo on May 8, 2008 12:58 PM CDT   0 recs

This analysis isn't actually true.

if you flip a coin 100 times, and the first 30 all happen to be “heads,” it doesn’t mean that 50 of the next 70 are going to be “tails.”

Steve
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com

by stigmo on May 8, 2008 1:00 PM CDT   1 recs

could be the reason

for the quotes on “law.”

while we may not be “due” the good bounces, it’s a nice reminder that the team has been beaten in a few games by “bad” bounces, that this team may still be an 87 win team talent wise, and could very well win more games than they lose from here on out.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 8, 2008 1:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

actually it is

You’re right about the coin flips, but the point here is regression to the mean. We’ve been playing below typical, so things should look more typical in the future, which is better than things have been. 70 or 75 more wins banks on us playing .540 or .580 ball from here on out. If you thought that’s the type of team we had coming in, then that’s fine. You’re point, is that doesn’t mean we’ll play .620 ball (or whatever) in order to get our overall record to .540 or .580.

Of course, none of this is going to bring Yovanni Gallardo back…

by keephopealive on May 8, 2008 1:57 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I guess it depends on how you're interpreting the original post

I believe in regression to mean. I thought he was suggesting a regression past the mean to compensate for the crappy first six weeks.

Steve
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com

by stigmo on May 8, 2008 3:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

A great example of the bad luck

Last night, Corey Hart had a shot between CF and LF. 9 times out of 10, the CF wouldn’t have been able to catch it, and there’s a good chance it would have been a double. Last night though, it was caught and Corey was out.

He's the round mound of profound

by drezdn on May 8, 2008 2:06 PM CDT   0 recs

What is going on with the Brewer's HR/FB percentage?

Admittedly, I’m a roto guy and my interest in this is primarily from that angle. Does anyone have any theories on why the big Brewer bats are not hitting the long ball this year?

Here are HR/FB percentages for this year and last:

Corey Hart ‘07 13% / ‘08 3.2%
Prince Fielder ‘07 23.9% / ‘08 9.7%
Ryan Braun ‘07 22.1% / ‘08 8.9%
J.J. Hardy ‘07 12% / ‘08 2.9%

Somehow Bill Hall has been immune:
‘07 10.3% / ‘08 20%

Rickie Weeks is down, but not much:
‘07 13.2% / ‘08 11.6%

This could just be a matter of a small sample size, but it seems odd that four very good hitters are having a lot of trouble hitting home runs so far this season. At the very least, this gives Brewers fans some hope that their bats will come alive soon. These guys aren’t going to hit like this all season.

by jomuca on May 9, 2008 9:36 AM CDT   0 recs

yep, sample size.

when 2 HRs are all that separate “odd” from “normal” you can chalk it up to “baseball”

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on May 9, 2008 9:42 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

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