Friday's Plastic Cup, Jeff Weaver edition

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 13, 2008 9:30 AM CDT in News

Not a ton on the interwebs for you this morning, but hey, if you get bored, you can get think about the series win on the road. Over and over again.

Bye bye, Jeff Weaver.

Two-Fisted Slopper thinks the moment to strike is now, and uses some reasonable assumptions to predict that the Brewers will be three games back at the All-Star Break. I'd be happy with that, especially if it means the Cubs panic and sign Jeff Weaver.

Jim Powell has posted another interview--this time it's with Jim Callis of Baseball America, and you'll be shocked to learn that the topic is not Jeff Weaver, it's first-round pick Brett Lawrie.

With Micah Hoffpair and Eric Patterson called up and Matt Murton cloaked with invisibility, the Cubs have picked up Ben Broussard as Triple-A depth. I guess he's better than Weaver...and I'm just talking about pitching!

Suggesting that we had better Triple-A depth in the 2007 Nashville rotation than in this year's, R.A. Dickey is taking the place of Miguel Batista in the Mariners rotation.

After a strong start, Livan Hernandez gave up seven runs in three innings last night to the Indians. That's five or more runs in five consecutive outings. Unfortunately, we're going to face better pitchers than that this weekend. They've got Francisco Liriano in Triple-A, but if they're worried about using him (or they use him, and it opens up a spot in the minor league rotation), maybe that'll be Jeff Weaver's new home.

That'll do it for today.

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Thankfully we got the series win yesterday

going .500 on a road trip is definitely a good thing for this club. Now hopefully we can get a good homestand and gain some ground. The Cubs can’t play the NL West forever, can they?

Can't pitch Gagne in rain. He’s like the B-2 bomber of baseball.--TheJay

by verno329 on Jun 13, 2008 10:44 AM CDT 0 recs

Two Fisted Slopper

Your math is wrong. The whole post holds no water because the math is not close. You also have the Cubs playing 10 more games than the Brewers…..unless it starts raining through the roof at Miller Park I doubt that happens.

15-14….although you have the Cubs going 15-24---Wont happen.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Jun 13, 2008 11:20 AM CDT 0 recs

Methinks it was a typo (much like your use of "wont" instead of "won't")

If you change the 4 in the Cubs’ record to a 3, then it’s correct right down to the 3 GB part.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jun 13, 2008 11:28 AM CDT up 0 recs

That complaint looks familiar... where have I seen it before?

If you change the 4 to a 3, the math is perfect and the Brewers are 3 back. I’ll take the liberty of updating it:

Predicted 7/15/08 Standings:
Cubs 57-38
Cards 55-41
Brewers 54-41

I think 20-10 and 15-14 is very reasonable given the schedules and likely Brewer offensive regression upwards and Cub offensive regression downwards.

by jihad on Jun 13, 2008 11:31 AM CDT up 0 recs

What makes you think the Cubs will regress?

Is it that they have scored the most runs in all of baseball or that they have the best ERA in the NL? Yes, they will regress, I dont think theyll be 86-48, but I also dont think theyll be 86-68.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Jun 13, 2008 11:34 AM CDT up 0 recs

Correction-------2nd most runs in baseball.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Jun 13, 2008 11:38 AM CDT up 0 recs

First of all

Check out this chart. That’s a week or two old, and some hitters have increased their production since then, but the point remains the same- the Brewers hitters are underperforming quite drastically, and they are due for a good hot streak, so I don’t think 20-10 is unreasonable at all. I don’t have time to make a chart of the Cubs expected vs. actual performance, but most position players are beating their projections, especially Theriot and Soto. In the rotation, Dempster isn’t going to keep up the pace he has set this year. I think we can agree on that point. And with the innings + appearances Wood and Marmol have racked up, I think it’s reasonable to expect a downturn in ERA as well especially in the bullpen.

I didn’t even mention the injury to Soriano, which obviously will hurt run production.

So I don’t think the Cubs will fall off of the face of the Earth here, but they’re playing over their heads a bit now and a 15-14 stretch where they are still over .500 is a very reasonable projection, especially from someone with Brewer bias.

by jihad on Jun 13, 2008 11:58 AM CDT up 0 recs

Simply

because the brewers are “due” for a good hot streak doesnt mean that happens. Bad luck doesnt not mean good luck awaits you. Deciding that the Brewers are going to play their best baseball at the time the Cubs will start to play some of their worst to date is guesswork. 7.5 games is a huge lead and one that is rarely overcome. For example- during the Cubs last long win streak the brewers played fantastic ball and lost a game.

As far as specific Cubs who might regress Theriot is a prime canidate, Soto seems to have become a different player and might be one of those few cases where an older prospect “figures it out”. Dempster has a FIP in the 3’s so while he may regress it’s not going to be as bad as I suspect some of you here think.

Also, much has been made of Marmol’s workload but including the start of last year Marmol was a starter who pitched heavier workloads that what he is seeing in the pen. When a player is conditioned to throw more innnings you can expect the stress on his arm to be less.

by ACB on Jun 13, 2008 12:26 PM CDT up 0 recs

Hmm

Sure, Dempster is pitching well now, but what happens when he goes past the number of innings he’s thrown in the past few years as a reliever? Is the thought he’s automatically a 200+ inning guy again? Also, Marmol’s not the only guy out in the bullpen getting a lot of work for the Cubs – what happens if one of the others goes down? They might not regress dramatically, but you don’t think Aramis Ramirez or Mark DeRosa are going to see some lowering of their better-than-the-rest-of-their-career numbers so far?

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jun 13, 2008 1:21 PM CDT up 0 recs

sure

but the general mood around here is the that Marmol and Wood are going to die off, that Dempster is going to become Dave Bush and that the offense will forget how to hit. Its not likely that the current NL leaders in pitching, one of the best offenses in baseball and a strong back end bullpen will ALL implode at the same time while at the same time the Brewers suddenly gel as a team and go on a tear.

Plus, I’m not sure why you think Aramis is over his ski’s. His OPS is right in line with his career and the only thing that’s up is his OBP which could be the result of a skilled hitter ageing and learning the zone better as well as the newfound teamwise approach of working the counts.

by ACB on Jun 13, 2008 1:39 PM CDT up 0 recs

that

doesnt read very well, I’m trying to blog and take sales calls and am doing a meh job on both

by ACB on Jun 13, 2008 1:40 PM CDT up 0 recs

None of those adjectives, verbs or characterizations is synonymous with regress.

Maybe the outstanding results will continue right through to the World Series, but its Cubs fans as well as other teams that look at a rotation that includes Lilly, Dempster, Marquis and AAA guy as not really all that awesome. Maybe Wood and Marmol are immune to the typical result of high usage, but most people would guess no.

Marmol in particular is a key to your team’s success and he began last year as a starter, pitched a lot of relief, played Winter ball, and is now appearing with regularity. He doesn’t need to have his velocity or control drop much to become much less effective.

But hey, its been 100 years and that makes the Cubs deserving is what I keep hearing.

by ol Pete on Jun 13, 2008 1:58 PM CDT up 0 recs

I really

find it hard to believe you write of Gallagher as “AAA” guy. He has outstanding numbers in the minors- has made the majors at a very young age and has a live arm. Most of us in Cub land were thrilled at the fact we didnt trade him for Roberts. Lilly is a good pitcher and by your logic about regression he is only going to have better #’s as the year goes on. Marquis is a bad start or two away from being removed for Marshall which would be an improvement over our projected rotation.

Dempster is kind of a mystery- he has stellar numbers and his “stuff” is much better suited to being a starter. He can miss bats but wheter his arm holds up or not is anybody’s guess.

I know you guys had huge expectations going into this season but there is little reason to believe this Cubs team isnt legit at this point and at 7.5 games back there is less reason to believe the Brews are going to overtake the Cubs at any point this year. (WC is always a shot though)

by ACB on Jun 13, 2008 2:21 PM CDT up 0 recs

yep, I guess we're the right audience

for a claim that a 7.5 game lead isn’t possibly going to fall apart the rest of the season…

by Zeyes on Jun 13, 2008 2:38 PM CDT up 0 recs

Its

a rare thing. http://www.1060west.net/2007/05/five-back-rule-revisited.html

plus the cubs are almost certain to have won more games at the end of June than your team had a year ago.

by ACB on Jun 13, 2008 2:44 PM CDT up 0 recs

In the last 162 games

the Cubs have won I believe 96 or 97. They are getting better and better IMHO

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Jun 13, 2008 2:49 PM CDT up 0 recs

96 or 97 games.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Jun 13, 2008 2:50 PM CDT up 0 recs

i like gallagher.

unlike marshall, i think gallagher might be for real, watch the walk rate improve…

gallagher, ip, bb/9, k/9
AA, 2006, 86.1, 5.73, 9.49
AA, 2007, 61.0, 3.54, 7.97
AAA, 2007, 40.2, 2.88, 8.19
AAA, 2008, 29.0, 2.79, 9.31

still like to see more innings above A ball, but whatever, early returns are in the right direction.

some idiot was in here last year arguing that sean marshall was a legit prospect because of numbers he put up in A-ball at something like 25 years old. what an idiot! ha!

;)

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 13, 2008 3:31 PM CDT up 0 recs

Gallagher has a great arm

he still is more a thrower than a pitcher. He is very very young though. I think he is our best up and coming pitcher

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Jun 13, 2008 3:49 PM CDT up 0 recs

22 years old.

1 of only 15 pitchers with ML innings this year who are 22 and younger.

that’s 3% of all pitchers who’ve logged innings this year.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 13, 2008 3:55 PM CDT up 0 recs

Marshall

still managed a good season last year- I think he is the kind of guy a NL team can live with as a 5th starter. He cant be any worse than Marquis.

by ACB on Jun 13, 2008 4:03 PM CDT up 0 recs

He can and he is

Marquis value is his ability to eat innings and his health; an added bonus is his speed/baserunning/hitting ability ‘for a pitcher’

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Jun 13, 2008 4:04 PM CDT up 0 recs

Marquis

has no value. none. he doesnt “eat” innings

lou has to take him damn near every game after 5 IP because he is terrible.

Is his hitting ability so great that justifies him in the rotation?

by ACB on Jun 13, 2008 4:08 PM CDT up 0 recs

hitting

marquis is good enough to make up the difference in fip projections below…

His +3.9 runs per season is probably worth 0.2-0.3 ERA…

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 13, 2008 4:12 PM CDT up 0 recs

marquis

is one guy i am just not capable of trying to be rational about. i hate that guy, every start makes me wince, everything he does bothers me so I cant be objective about it

by ACB on Jun 13, 2008 4:14 PM CDT up 0 recs

Well if you watched the 2006

season you would realize his value. He is probably one of the top 5 number 5’s in all of baseball. He has value to the back of a rotation.

Lou has been quick to pull Marquis this year.

He eats innings, hes always healthy and you can always expect 190 innings out of him

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Jun 13, 2008 4:14 PM CDT up 0 recs

No

not when he cant make it out of the 5th without giving up 4 runs

by ACB on Jun 13, 2008 4:14 PM CDT up 0 recs

Thats hard to do

considering his ERA is sitting at 4.54. So getting out of the 5th without giving up 4 runs doesnt make sense.

You hate him fine—-you saying he has NO value is wrong.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Jun 13, 2008 4:21 PM CDT up 0 recs

probably right

2008 zips fip
—-——-
marshall, 5.08
marquis, 5.30

i know the brewers would rather see marshall than marquis.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 13, 2008 4:08 PM CDT up 0 recs

regression

ironically the answer to your question:

What makes you think the Cubs will regress?

is the complaint that brought you here: “math”

or the simply version which you write in the very same post:

Yes, they will regress

these are not far out hypotheticals.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 13, 2008 12:07 PM CDT up 0 recs

hammer!

hey hammer. did you experience and physiological response when alfonso soriano got hit with the pitch that broke his hand?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 13, 2008 12:02 PM CDT up 0 recs

not "and"

“any”

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 13, 2008 12:04 PM CDT up 0 recs

no

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Jun 13, 2008 12:07 PM CDT up 0 recs

not even

a slight posterior twinge?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 13, 2008 12:08 PM CDT up 0 recs

I was at the game

and from my angle it looked like it hit him in the nose. So I was more worried.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Jun 13, 2008 12:12 PM CDT up 0 recs

oooh

yuck, that woulda been gruesome. were you close enough to hear it? that sound is like a fork on a chalkboard for me.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 13, 2008 12:15 PM CDT up 0 recs

Decent seats but didnt hear anything

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry
"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Jun 13, 2008 12:16 PM CDT up 0 recs

Thanks

The anonymous comments are unwarranted, it was simply a typo. On my notepad I had it listed right, I just missed a stroke.

If anything, I may be giving the Cards the better benefit because they have a really rough schedule. I put the records together based on reasonable estimates … there is no way the Cubs will play at a .640-ish clip the entire season, which is why I did the modest 15-14 record. Soriano may just be a psychological letdown rather than offensive, but the vile of the anonymous comments there are making me reconsider the anonymous postings.

Cubs fans sometimes give the internet a bad name.

My non-embarrassing thoughts on the Brewers:
Two Fisted Slopper

by nmc on Jun 13, 2008 4:52 PM CDT up 0 recs

Band Name Suggestion

The Jeff Weaver Experiment is available to play your wedding or funeral.

Coffee is for closers

by drezdn on Jun 13, 2008 11:46 AM CDT 0 recs

Will they sing Dreamweaver?

by ol Pete on Jun 13, 2008 11:51 AM CDT up 0 recs

nice.

go get em' seth!

by Jamie in LA on Jun 13, 2008 12:26 PM CDT up 0 recs

Forget about the Cubs for a minute

The team I really want to catch is the Cardinals. Once we are second in the division then we can start worrying about catching the Cubs. Right now the WC standings show the Cards, the Fish, then the Crew. The Marlins have a tough series against the Rays this weekend and the Cardinals face the Phillies who really look to me like they are going to run away with the East quite soon. This weekend might be a golden opportunity to tie or pass the Marlins and make up a game or two against the Cards.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Jun 13, 2008 3:10 PM CDT 0 recs

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Games Back: 7.5

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NL Central Standings

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