Monday's Plastic Cup

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 16, 2008 7:07 AM CDT in News Comment 34 comments

You mean...American League teams lose, too? Cool.

Eric Gagne isn't going to make it back as soon as David Riske will, but he did just throw his first bullpen session. He should hurry back--the Nashville bullpen is really scuffling right now.

Fire Ned Yost sees the future and doesn't like it.

Peter Gammons's blog is Insider-Only (I'm not an insider), but it looks like he's writing about Rich Harden possibly turning out to be a bigger trade acquisition than CC Sabathia. I'm sure we'll be talking about this for a while, being the presumptive contender with the glaring need for a starter. Harden won't come cheap, but he's worth more than Sabathia in the longer term, as he's got a $7MM club option for 2009. If we're going to trade a couple of blue-chippers for one of these guys, Harden is the more tempting option, though of course the front office will have to spend most of July checking over his medical records.

Remember Robinson Cancel? He had a cup of coffee with the Brewers in 1999, and now he's back in the bigs, with the Mets. He drove in a deciding run yesterday, and it was his first hit this century. Faith and Fear in Flushing has more.

Danny Herrera, a reliever in the Reds system who recently made his MLB debut, is a great story. What I didn't know until recently is that he throws a screwball (among many other things). At The Hardball Times, Mike Fast breaks it down.

That's all I found this morning, and I'm off to work early, so I'm not looking any harder. If you haven't yet read all of battlekow's prospect interviews, what are you waiting for? Click here (or the "interviews" link on the left-hand sidebar) to get them all at once.

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Sheets

My hope is that the brewers are either really serious about signing sheets or they should just trade him, no matter where they are in the standings. If they lose sheets to free agency and only get some draft picks, that will be a huge disappointment.

If we are in contention at the trade deadline and the Brewers feel they aren’t going to sign Sheets, then just trade him. It would be best for the future of this team.

by brewfan2 on Jun 16, 2008 9:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I can understand that logic but let me play devil's avocate for a minute

What does the division look like in two year? Well the Cubs should still be a pretty good team. They have some ok young players and the money to fix their older players whose production should have dropped. The Cardinals also have a new stadium and some decent money and if Duncan and LaRussa stay they probably will be able to field a decent pitching staff. Pujols will be two years older but guys like Ankiel, Molina, and Ludwick will be in their prime or close to it. Those guys have really broken out and if their performance this year is even close to real they should be a good team. The reds are filled with good young players like Volquez, Cueto, Bruce, and Votto. These guys should all get better though Volquez is pitching out of his mind right now and will likely regress a bit the rest of this year. The Pirates appear like they now get it as well and with their new GM are really making some positive steps. 2010 may be too early for them but they could be improving. I do expect the Astros to drop off as Berkman, Lee, and Tejada age.

The central in 2010 could be a very rough division. We should have a very nice team but I wouldn’t say we would be head and shoulders above the rest. If we are in WC contention at the deadline I think we have to keep Sheets and try for the playoffs now. I don’t mean trade for Sabathia but I also wouldn’t expect to trade Ben away either.

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by dixieflatline on Jun 16, 2008 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'll disagree

i think this team’s chances at playoffs will continue to get better over the next 3-5 years with or without ben sheets. however, as the core of this team ages, money is going to need to be freed up, i think quite obviously it will come from the bullpen at first, but eventually, the pitching staff will have to be the young pre-arby talent of this team, which makes the big veteran contracts like sheets and suppan more succeptible to the chopping block.

i’ll agree that the reds and pirates will both get better over that time, no question.

i dont think the cardinals are in long term success mode, ankiel, molina and ludwick are all older than you think (i think), rasums is starting to NOT look like any kind of answer, the rotation is not only relief pitchers but old relief pitchers. they are a patchwork team having a miracle season. at the very least they have some contract flexibility, so they should look completely different in two years, but i imagine it’ll be another patchwork team. they should enter full rebuilding mode soon.

the astros are in trouble as you point out.

the cubs can only be worse in two seasons. the “core” and their ages in 2010 are: lee (34), ramirez (32), soriano (34), fukudome (33), zambrano (29), marquis (31), lilly (34). That team will be worse across the board. The up and comers, soto, marshall, gallagher, marmol just won’t be able to offset half that decline due to age. and the positions remaining, cf, ss, 2b, just don’t typically offer the offense needed to help balance that decline. the cubs are in all-out mode. i think they will be significantly worse in 2010.

i think the next 2-5 years look great for the brewers, and hanging on to sheets because this needs to be the year is, i’ll say, a bad move. flipping him for pitching prospects to take the gallardo/villanueva/parra role in a couple years might be a good move. i hope they pay him, and keep him, but i definitely dont like long term pitching contracts, and someone will be willing to give sheets 5 years… i think losing sheets to free agency could be not a whole lot worse than trading him. We either need him pitching, or bringing back talent ready to contribute in 2011…

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 16, 2008 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

* wow, molina is only 25.

there’s a bright spot for the cardinals.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 16, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

not to

nitpick, but Marquis isnt part of our “core” nor will he even be under contract with us in 2010.

Lilly and Lee i think will be in their last years as well, but your point still stands that the Cubs will age towards the dark side while the Brews should age towards their peaks

then again if Cuban is allowed to buy the team I would imagine we will finally have a payroll that matches our market size and we will add on a few nice FA pieces, for now though the future of the Central looks bright for the Reds and the Brews

by ACB on Jun 16, 2008 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're right

3 year contract 2007-2009.

07:$4.75M
08:$6.375M
09:$9.875M (ouch!!!)

and with a bottomless pit of money, they cubs might as well eat the 10 million dollars next year and release marquis or use him in relief, and pick up a free agent for 15 million or so. It’ll be the most expensive rotation spot ever, but enormous payrolls allow you to be incredibly sloppy with your contracts: see Jim Hendry’s career.

so while some guys would be hard to bench (lilly, lee) others (marquis) might not let the contract get in the way of playing time.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 16, 2008 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

I think Lee

will manage to stay semi productive through 2010 before we cut bait and find somebody else but yeah our payroll does allow us to eat some mistakes and no i dont feel our payroll is near high enough. we pack the fans in, we have a large national fanbase and rake in tons through WGN or Comcast and merch.

If a ego driven owner with deep pockets like Cuban buys the Cubs then it could be economically game over for the Brews and Red ect but im sure Selig will install Canning or some other lackey

by ACB on Jun 16, 2008 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is completely unrelated

But I think jacob has to win the award for “quickest to apologize when corrected”. It’s a great thing to see on the battlefield of the internet.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 16, 2008 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he

is a bit more prickly at other blogs and there really wasnt much argument over the lenght of marquis deal because it is what it is but yeah its fun to have a civil conversation with other teams fans

btw do the Brews have any up and coming SP prospects outside of Jeffres (Sp??) I’m trying to take a look at top talent from around the NL Central farms and I’m not super familiar with the Brews system now that Gallardo and Braun are up

by ACB on Jun 16, 2008 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't referring only to this post

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 16, 2008 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's important to get the facts right

(really that’s all that sabermetrics is, too.)

otherwise it’s just hot air, smoke, rhetoric, and gooey smashed sausages. i often go too far and expect other people to always have the facts right as well.

and to the cubsfan above…

1) i don’t post at other blogs
2) civility is not worth anymore than a small fraction of truth
3) no, the brewers really don’t have any SP prospects to speak of (and i don’t really count jeffress as one yet either)... some good resources for your look around the NL central.

sickels’ at minorleagueball.com

use the search feature to find his top20 lists for each club.
here’s the brewers: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2007/12/30/23436/372

toby’s power 50
http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewPower50.do

and hopefully battlekow’s list, which if we’re lucky he’ll create and maintain.
:)

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 16, 2008 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd be happy to maintain a ranking

Would people like that more than an alphabetized list of (arbitrarily-included) prospects?

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 16, 2008 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jeffress

seems to have a pretty good arm for A Ball, I know he missed some time for off field issues but his last outings have been impressive K wise.

by ACB on Jun 16, 2008 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jeffress is a legit SP prospect

Probably the third-best prospect in the system right now.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 16, 2008 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'd totally vote

for your rankings of prospects. (more than just an alphabetically sorted list). i don’t know how much discussion it would generate, but lists and rankings are always fun. i’d definitely prefer your opinion to just an index.

and yes, by most accounts jeffress counts as a legit SP prospect. i can’t dispute that.

but, personally, i don’t know when to separate the ryan wagners and homer baileys from the eric hurleys, steven waldrops, and mark rogers’. When does a high school pitcher cease to be a prospect?

because of that i’d have guys like narveson and hammond higher on my list than jeffress (obviously that’s just me). i hope jeffress succeeds, and i trust the baseball insiders that he has a high ceiling, but there is far more art to saying jeffress is a bigger prospect than say teammate zach braddock, and getting it right. so i way until i see success in AA or better.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 16, 2008 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You have to balance upside with probability of reaching that upside

Narveson has zero upside, and has reached it already. He’s a non-prospect. Hammond has back of the rotation upside, and is pretty close it it. He’s a C kinda prospect, maybe a shade higher because he’s a lefty. Jeffress, on the other hand, is succeeding quite well (despite his ERA) and has ace stuff. If Jeffress was in rookie ball, I could maybe see an argument, but he’s just so far ahead of anyone else in the system stuff-wise that even pitching competently would make him the best pitching prospect in the system.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 16, 2008 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It would be interesting to know which Brewers decision maker favored keeping Narveson up at the major league club after Spring training.

by ol Pete on Jun 16, 2008 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

oooh! ooh!

also, if you do that, create a prospect list, i’ll create a metric that will allow us to come back in three years or so and show that your list is better than haudricourts…

which will answer his plea: If you know somebody in the baseball writing profession who knows the Brewers and their system better than Drew and myself, I’d like to know who it is.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 16, 2008 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ah, there's the rub

It’s the “baseball writing profession.” Dirty Internet bloggers may know more, but they lack finesse.

by Marty McSuperFly on Jun 16, 2008 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

speaking for myself

I’d probably find a list that’s both ranked and split by level the most useful – but I’m not sure if that would make for a good presentation overall.

by Zeyes on Jun 16, 2008 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll think on that for a bit and see what I can come up with.

Maybe an overall ranking on the sidebar with the level in parentheses, and then a link to a page with the same players broken down by level?

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 16, 2008 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would say that the cubs payroll is probably at its market size already.

With that being said, the cubs will always be able to buy their team so it’s always hard to speculate towards their future.

by brewfan2 on Jun 16, 2008 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You make a lot of good points Jacob

The thing about Ludwick and Ankiel though is they kind of got started late. I wonder if they might age very gracefully for the next few years because of that? I still feel like flipping Sheets if we are even remotely in the race is probably not a great idea but I do see the merits.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Jun 16, 2008 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think the aging curve

especially for hitters, is the age of the neurons in your brain, and the age of the muscles on your bones… and less the wear and tear effects. and it’s not like these guys haven’t been playing baseball all their lives. i tend to think that guys that peak late are more likely to decline quickly. my theory is that the late peak is a combination of the aging curve, a little bit of good luck, and the new(ish) to league factor, i would not be surprised to see ankiel and ludwick tumble quickly.

i see that i don’t have a solid conclusion on sheets. i’d prefer he remain a brewer for the next 3 or 4 years, but i can see flipping him to actually be more beneficial to the brewers especially given how the market severely undervalues pre-arby talent. finally, i don’t think letting him walk is all that detrimental either.

i don’t think the brewers are “under the gun” with sheets. i can see win-win-win for all three scenarios.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 16, 2008 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we trade

any of our prospects for starting pitcher help with our defense, I will start rooting for the Royals.

by Braunstalker on Jun 16, 2008 10:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Robinson Cancel

Yea, the Mets are a veritable “Comeback Story” factory these days. Let alone the fact that none of these players belong on a major league roster, but: Fernando Tatis! Wow! That takes you back, right? Yea, he’s a regular starting outfielder for my Metsies these days. So is Marlon Anderson! Wait a minute, Damion Easley is still playing? The Mets are about to bring back Jose Valentin? Seriously? Didn’t he have one of those teary comebacks two years ago?

by JohnPeterson on Jun 16, 2008 12:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I hear Dave Nilsson may be looking for a job :)

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 16, 2008 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It could be John Valentin...

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jun 16, 2008 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

reminds me of this scene in major league

Board Member 1: I’ve never heard of half of these guys and the ones I do know are way past their prime.
Charlie Donovan: Most of these guys never had a prime.
Board Member 2: This guy here is dead.
Rachel Phelps: Cross him off then.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 16, 2008 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is crazy

I just was hunting for a major league quote for my article tomorrow.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Jun 16, 2008 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are so many great ones

One that doesn’t get brought up often is the restaurant scene, where Jake takes Rick and Willie to dinner, right before he runs into his ex. I can’t remember the quotes exactly, but there are some funny lines as Rick and Willie study the French menu in confusion before Jake says, “Nevermind, I’ll order.”

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 16, 2008 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah it really is a great movie

I needed a Cerrano quote though as tomorrow is pitching at Coors where the ball doesn’t break. I’ll bet you can figure out which one :)

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Jun 16, 2008 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

David Price

In case anyone’s interested, the Manatees are playing against 2007 #1 overall pick David Price right now.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 16, 2008 7:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

And Rocco Baldelli!

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 16, 2008 7:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	44	38	.536	0	Won 3
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	42	38	.525	1	Lost 3
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	39	38	.506	2.5	Won 3
Cincinnati Red Reporter	39	39	.500	3	Lost 1
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	38	40	.487	4	Lost 1
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	37	43	.462	6	Won 1