Can we just call him McNasty?
So shortly before Seth McClung went into the rotation I said this "If you take a peak at McClung it looks like his off speed pitches kind of suck. This makes me think that he wouldn't make it as a starter." Well at the time it was true. His fastball was grading out as a plus pitch and his curve and slider were grading out as a minus pitch and a minus minus pitch respectively. He hadn't even thrown enough splitters for me to check that pitch. There is no way he would be able to pitch as a starter I thought because his fastball was going to have to slow down when starting and that was the only thing keeping him afloat. Boy was I wrong. Let's take a look at how he turned it around.
So here is the crazy thing. McClung (or McNasty as I prefer) has lost just over two MPH on his fsatball like we expected. It went from a blazing 94.85 MPH as a reliever to 92.71 MPH as a starter. The other big change is he lost more than an inch of horizontal and vertical movement on his curveball. That sounds like a lot and it should, that is a nearly 20% decrease in movement. Yet not only is he still in the rotation he is pitching well. So what is going on?
The short answer is everything has changed. McClung has transformed everything about himself in mid season when entering the rotation. Let's start with his release point:
McClung as a reliever didn't have a very repeatable delivery. He would release the ball in a wide band from over the top to very close to three quarters. The fastballs were over the top mostly and the curves and sliders from three quarters. The result was a relatively straight fastball and a slurvy slider and curve. Not only might he have been tipping the off speed pitches with the release point but he also wasn't throwing them in the same vertical or horizontal plane. My look into curves and sliders seem to strongly indicate that you need to hide the off speed stuff in one of the two planes or the hitters will sniff it out and it looks like that was happening to McClung. He had so much movement on his curve and it came from such a different release point hitters would identify it and either let it go for a ball or crush it if it were a strike.
The new McClung has adopted even more of an over the top delivery than what he was throwing his fastball with before. He has also moved more to the third base side of the mound. You can see this by in increased height and horizontal shift in the new release point. He is now really hiding his pitches in his release point and his curve has become much more 12 to 6 which means it is hiding in the same vertical plane as his fastball for much longer. With this more consistent release point has come much better control (duh). Here is how this change has affected the movement of his pitches.
That large variation is his release point was causing a huge spread in movement as you would expect. Some pitchers can effectively control this but it doesn't look like McClung could. Now his fastball has calmed to a nice, repeatable, movement that he can consistently count on when locating his pitches. Notice now how his slider and curve kind of look line they have a horizontal and vertical band to them? This is due to the variation of the spin McClung is putting on the ball. His slider and curve's spin axis are almost completely at right angles to each other and as he adds or takes away spin the slider's movement goes up or down and the curve's movement goes right or left. This is very strange for a pitcher especially for one with a very over the top delivery like McClung now has. Again, as strange as it might seem, McClung probably is doing better with less spin on his curve as that makes the pitch more 12 to 6 which matches his fastball.
Ok so the real thing that jumps out at you is the increased use of his splitter. As a reliever he threw only 10 splitters, or less than 3% of the time. As a starter he is throwing the pitch just over 25% of the time mostly to lefties. This pitch has incredible horizontal movement and, compared to his fastball, has nice late break down as well. McClung is hiding this pitch incredibly well throwing it from the same release point at 90.19 MPH just two MPH slow than his fastball. This means hitters see fastball and then at the last instance it breaks down and a away from lefties. This is a huge weapon for him while facing lefties and he is taking full advantage of it throwing the pitch 42% of the time compared to 40% fastballs to lefties!
To right handed batters McClung uses his four seamer and his slider/curve but he uses them in a unique way. When he gets the count to 0-1 he almost never throws a fastball to a RHB. He opts for a curve low or a slider away. It is like his thinking is the batter doesn't want to get to 0-2 so if I throw him an off speed here he is likely to swing. He treats 0-2 similarly but when the count goes to 1-2 when the hitter might be expecting an off speed pitch he very often goes with the gas. He still has the ability to ramp it up to 94-95 MPH so if the hitter is thinking off speed and he throws a 95 MPH heater good things happen.
Now the scary thing is I think there might be more room for improvement. If he has get his curve to be more 12 to 6 like Sheets I think that would help a lot. Also, if he could get a little more horizontal movement on his slider by maybe throwing it faster he might get more swings and misses when he starts it in the zone and has it tail down and out of the zone. That said, with the results he has had don't expect too many more changes.
Here is an updated Runs100 breakdown of McClung only while pitching as a starter:
Seth_McClung Fastball -4.97404
Seth_McClung Curve -1.78667
Seth_McClung Slider -2.06
Seth_McClung Splitter -4.08814
Remember, lower is better with Runs100. That splitter has been down right untouchable. Long live McNasty.
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Great stuff..
Great tidbits of information again Josh. Thanks.
It appears that the Brewers are limiting his PC and IP to around mid 80s and 6ip. I know the Rays wanted to make him a starter and he hit the “bush wall” and collapsed. Does McNasty show signs for laboring or are they just slowly stretching him out?
by SgtClueLs on Jun 16, 2008 10:32 AM CDT 0 recs
i think
the prevailing opinion is that he is already stretched out. Yost made a great move to go to shouse and didn’t let the fact that mcclung had pitched well for 6 innings get in the way of that decision.
awesome stuff josh! all 2008 data, right?
Bring Back The Old Logo!
by jacob on
Jun 16, 2008 10:40 AM CDT
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Yeah all 2008
by dixieflatline on
Jun 16, 2008 11:08 AM CDT
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Here are the fatigue plots


Some very large error bars here and remember that he hasn’t pitched past 70 pitches often.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 16, 2008 11:07 AM CDT
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great stuff
quite impressive changes by McNasty to turn him into a bona fide starter, even if he can only go six innings.
by Oakland Brewer Fan on Jun 16, 2008 11:13 AM CDT 0 recs
helluva lot better
than Parra in the early going of the season. He’d hit 90-100 pitches and would have only gone 5. I’ll settle for 6 innings out of most of the starters, especially someone that’s been in the pen for a while.
by PagsBrewCrew on
Jun 16, 2008 2:58 PM CDT
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FWIW
After the Atlanta loss, McC said “the plan” was to throw a lot of two seamers to left handers. That was the pitch that tailed away and down from LHers.
Ironically, last night in the postgame, Ned said that McC had no “plan” other than to work fast and follow Kendall.
by ol Pete on Jun 16, 2008 11:50 AM CDT 0 recs
So he is calling those pitches two seemers not splitters?
I have heard Rock call them splitters and my classification code thinks they are splitters. The large horizontal movement is classic splitter but if he wants to call them two seamers fine with me.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 16, 2008 12:13 PM CDT
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Horizontal movement?
Aren’t splitters famous for the “floor dropping out”, so to speak? A two-seamer is a “sinker”, so the action is similar, though the grips are very different. I’d love to get a close-up of his hand as he’s releasing the pitch to figure out how he’s holding it.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jun 16, 2008 12:54 PM CDT
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Sinkers tend to move more vertically down than four seamers
And Splitters tend to move vertically but also more horizontally than four seamers. That has served my classification algorithm well in the past but it does still have issues with sinkers and splitters from time to time. Again, whatever he wants to call it we will call it that it is just that after hearing Rock and BA call it a splitter and then the algorithm call it a splitter I just assumed that is what he called it. Silly me. Whatever you want to call it the extra horizontal movement almost certainly helps him against lefties and is the reason he doesn’t want to throw it to righties.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 16, 2008 1:02 PM CDT
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photo
no idea what these first three are (2-seamer, 4-seamer, 4seamer???), last one is a cuveball




curveball
Bring Back The Old Logo!
by jacob on
Jun 16, 2008 1:07 PM CDT
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Wow, #2 is not an attractive picture
Good thing he ditched that look. Anyway, I think #2 is a slider and #3 is a two-seamer.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jun 16, 2008 1:23 PM CDT
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Yeah I wish I had some data from Tampa
It would be really interesting to see how he has changed in the last year since becoming a brewer and working with Maddux and Castro.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 16, 2008 4:36 PM CDT
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This is the proverbial WAG as they say, but I don’t recall seeing the tailing, sinking pitch that he was throwing in Atlanta to leftys other than in that game. Maybe he is able to throw it, so Maddux came up with a plan for that game and afterwards, the “plan” became to simplify things given the outcome. That might include throwing fewer types of pitches and forgetting about the two-seamer for the most part. Rock might be correct, as he isn’t throwing the two-seamer at all or rarely and the pitch that you think is a splitter is just that.
by ol Pete on
Jun 16, 2008 1:17 PM CDT
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I do think he is still throwing it
Or I should say PITCHf/x thinks he is still throwing it but the Braves had a ton of lefties so he almost certainly is throwing it less in the last few games.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 16, 2008 4:33 PM CDT
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McClung's changeup
Just from googling it, McClung appears to have a changeup; any sign of it?
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Jun 16, 2008 1:30 PM CDT 0 recs
None this year that I can see
The change and the splitter are both meant to be off speed pitches mainly to opposite handed batters for I guess just pick the one you throw best because few pitchers seem to throw both.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 16, 2008 4:34 PM CDT
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Well that didn't recieve a lot of good reviews.
I was just naming the article this for you guys I guess I could have made it more professional sounding.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 16, 2008 4:35 PM CDT
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Ignore it
Clearly, the guy is more geared toward gawker-style quips than any worthwhile discussion.
by Marty McSuperFly on
Jun 16, 2008 4:44 PM CDT
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Screw that guy, man
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jun 16, 2008 5:40 PM CDT
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Tom H.'s
pet hamster is Flournoy. (I read that on a blog somewhere.)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on
Jun 16, 2008 6:23 PM CDT
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Seth McClung makes a music video
You guys have no concept on how talented he is.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Jun 16, 2008 6:20 PM CDT 0 recs
So one more thing I forgot to mention
This improvement sure looks real to me and I now believe that McClung is a viable starter going forward not someone just having a hot few starts. So I think it is time to start using the skip the 5th starter routine that Ned used a few years ago. Even if that means just a couple of extra starts for Sheets and the gang if it also means a couple fewer starts by Bush I think that would really help. Sheets, Suppan, Parra, and McClung all seem pretty capable.
by dixieflatline on Jun 16, 2008 7:02 PM CDT 0 recs
FWIW, until the All-Star break that would result in
one Bush start turning into a Sheets start. More importantly, Sheets would be the last starter before the 4-day break, so he could start the first game back on regular rest, much like Capuano did last year (or the year before, I forget). Of course, the wildcard is that Sheets could well make it to the All-Star game, though perhaps he wouldn’t be pitching on one day of rest.
Perhaps they’ll line things up that way anyway, even without doing the full skip-the-5th-starter thing…all it takes would be to skip Bush on 6/30.
by Zeyes on
Jun 16, 2008 8:22 PM CDT
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I like it
Even if it only results in one more Sheets start and one less Bush start. The ASG kind of lands on his throw day anyway and there is no guarantee he is making the team (though it does likely). If we can end the first half and start the second half with a Sheets start that is going to help.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 16, 2008 9:11 PM CDT
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Interesting anaylsis again
But to answer your question, “No, we will not call him McNasty.” He is, and will forever remain “Son of Clung” on the pages of this web.
Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.
by shooty babitt on Jun 16, 2008 7:22 PM CDT 0 recs
digging around for something else
I listened to McC’s postgame after Atlanta posted in the forbidden zone AKA jsonline. He talks about the two-seamer and Yost does there as well, but neither is the one I listened to at the time.
by ol Pete on Jun 17, 2008 7:36 AM CDT 0 recs
Well I guess it is offical
He is calling that pitch a two seamer despite the extra horizontal movement. It is things like this that my classification algorithm will never get right as all the other pitches around it that it compares to are splitters. That will have to be hand edited but I am not going to be editing them for a while so if you keep an eye on McClung’s player card it is going to say splitter for a while.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 17, 2008 7:48 AM CDT
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hey
Anybody else find it a little funny that this post is now appearing under an ad for McCain?
by mikeynaked on Jun 27, 2008 2:47 PM CDT 0 recs
Ad Block
You need Ad Block my friend.
Wait..I mean.. I support any product listed on BCB. (Give Jeff more money)
by SgtClueLs on
Jun 27, 2008 10:06 PM CDT
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actually...
I don’t make any money from those ads … for now, anyway, that money goes to the network, support the tech and everything.
(I have an adblocker running, too)
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jun 28, 2008 8:13 AM CDT
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