Monday's Frosty Mug
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
BDD Recaps
Thanks to Jeff for allowing you to drink straight from the tap with the Win Expectancy Graphs and BR Box Scores over the weekend.
Jim Powell blogged after Saturday's game. He's pretty excited about the homestand so far, and reasonably so.
He also mentions the massive home run Russell Branyan hit Saturday. I was at the game (my first of the season), and from my perspective, it didn't look like the ball actually made the Dew Deck. It looked like it hit near the back of the second deck. Unfortunately, at the ballpark I only got to see it once, and at game speed. Anyone have access to it on video?
Following Saturday's game, Ned Yost took a beating from Beyond the Box Score for allowing Ben Sheets to throw 120 pitches. I understand the logic at play here, but I find myself agreeing with the first commenter, who notes that everything would've been fine if not for the 11 pitch at bat with Lance Berkman, with two outs in the ninth.
Also Sheets related: Another Baseball Blog takes a look at Sheets' hitting and how it impacts a game. He estimates that the difference between Gallardo's hitting (near elite) and Sheets' hitting (near inept) is equivalent to about a .30 difference in ERA. If the swing from top to bottom is that small, maybe I've spent too much time worrying about pitcher hitting.
Dave Pinto notes that Brewer starters are 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA over their last 7 starts. It's probably a little early to say our pitching woes are over, but this is certainly an improvement.
Here's an interesting new stat: The Beane Count. It tracks home runs and walks, by hitters and pitchers, and combines them to form one number to evaluate. The Brewers rank 13th in the NL at present. I rank somewhere near dead last in being able to explain new stats.
While I'm on the topic of interesting stats, Recondite Baseball takes a look at the all time highest and lowest BABIP numbers. Most of these guys aren't huge surprises, but somehow, Gorman Thomas cracked the list on the low end, at #18. How did that happen?
On injuries:
Twins P Nick Blackburn is fine, amazingly, after being hit in the face by a line drive. He may not miss a start.
Hank Blalock had carpal tunnel surgery Friday and will miss at least another month.
J.D. Drew missed a start over the weekend with vertigo.
Padres P Shawn Estes broke his thumb falling down the stairs. The bad jokes here can only escalate.
Angels IF Chone Figgins has been placed on the DL with irritation in his hamstring.
Reds P Josh Fogg has been placed on the DL with a bad back.
Travis Hafner has been placed on the DL with a sore shoulder.
D-Backs 1B Conor Jackson will be out for a few days with a strained quad.
Braves OF Mark Kotsay has been placed on the DL with a strained lower back.
David Ortiz felt something pop in his wrist Saturday and will (maybe already did?) undergo an MRI.
The Brewers aren't the only team that can't win on the road. At The Book blog, MGL notes that the homefield advantage this year is significantly higher than average, and offers some reasons why.
Dugout Central notes a moment from Friday that's indicative of the problem MLB has with confrontational umpires:
If this works out, it'll set a dangerous precedent: Last week, the Braves designated backup C Brayan Pena for assignment, and placed him on waivers, presumably hoping to send him to the minors. The Royals claimed him off waivers, kept him on their roster for a day, then DFA'd him again, hoping to send him to the minors as well. If this is possible, couldn't Pena be claimed and DFA'd by teams needing a AAA catcher every few days for months?
Here's something new to check periodically: Baseball Musings has a daily chart showing the probability Chipper Jones will hit .400.
Oh, and here's some fun with misheard lyrics.
Drink up.
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Brayan Pena
If that worst case scenario does happen, I’m sure he’ll gladly take the MLB money and service time that comes along with it.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Jun 2, 2008 10:23 AM CDT 0 recs
Hall
At the very least, you’d think he could get it during the All Star break.
He's the round mound of profound
by drezdn on Jun 2, 2008 10:41 AM CDT 0 recs
Huh?
Derek Jeter is day to day after being hit by a pitch and being gorilla press slammed by a Bizarro Ray.
by KLSnow on
Jun 2, 2008 10:45 AM CDT
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Ah.
Was that some kind of riddle I failed to solve? :-)
Derek Jeter is day to day after being hit by a pitch and being gorilla press slammed by a Bizarro Ray.
by KLSnow on
Jun 2, 2008 11:33 AM CDT
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recovery time
Weeks to months with a variety of restrictions.
by ol Pete on
Jun 2, 2008 11:59 AM CDT
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I was sitting right on the right field line
for Branyan’s monster shot on Saturday night so my friend and I had a really good view. I don’t think it is on video because the game was on WMLW that night, and that is pretty much the television equivalent of Ned’s Sunday lineups. I’m pretty sure that the one camera they have to broadcast a game was focused on the 2nd deck & not the 3rd so they missed it entirely. Maybe MLB.TV has something, but I doubty it.
Rest assured, it was easily into the Dew Deck (It’s fun to say Dew Deck 10 times really fast.) It landed about 3-4 rows behind the “Hunger Task Force” sign that is hanging on that facade. Again, I’d like to reiterate that I love Russel Branyan.
It is dangerous for an athlete to believe his own publicity, good or bad - Bob Uecker, 1982.
by Adam P on Jun 2, 2008 11:06 AM CDT 0 recs
there is a video highlight
I used to be able to grab videos by opening the activity window in Safari and double clicking on the file, but now that is a bit more troublesome. But after fooling with it, I watched it frame by frame and it is about 3 or 4 rows back. Unfortunately for Russell, it was caught by a girl.
by ol Pete on
Jun 2, 2008 12:19 PM CDT
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the homerun
was in the gameday videos, so should still be up on yesterday’s gameday report. Need a link?
by PagsBrewCrew on
Jun 2, 2008 1:36 PM CDT
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rivera, thomas, neyer, pena
So, Mike Rivera is batting .500 since I suggested he should play more.
And since you suggested he play more the brewers are 6-1 in games Kendall starts and have allowed less than 2.5 runs per game. the brewers are 1-1 in games when Rivera starts and are allowing 4 runs per game. hopefully that rivera small sample will stay small.
Gorman Thomas has a low BABIP because as TheJay explains, guys who hit alot of flyballs and popups will be the career losers here.
Neyer created the Beane count at least 5 years ago.
And the branyan pena, unending claiming scenario you suggest is not much of a reality since he has to be added to the 25 man roster, and for most organizations that roster space is more valuable than organizational filler.
Bring Back The Old Logo!
by jacob on Jun 2, 2008 11:09 AM CDT 0 recs
In Rivera's defense
He caught Bush and McClung, arguably are two worst starters.
by brewfan2 on
Jun 2, 2008 11:20 AM CDT
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sorry...that should be "our" not "are"
Allergy medicine makes me stupid.
by brewfan2 on
Jun 2, 2008 11:21 AM CDT
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In Kendall's defense
He caught Bush and McClung as well. And they both pitched much better with kendall behind the plate than with rivera.
Bring Back The Old Logo!
by jacob on
Jun 2, 2008 12:03 PM CDT
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In Rivera's defense again
He caught the game McClung won....
by morineko on
Jun 2, 2008 12:17 PM CDT
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In Kendall's defense again
He’s probably productively using his day rolling around in grit rather than arguing his merits over the past week or so. Rivera’s probably reading “How to Save for Retirement While Making $2000 Daily” for the 19th time this season (I hear he likes the “Cheap and Safe Treatments for Splinters” chapter).
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on
Jun 2, 2008 12:23 PM CDT
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Actually, I screwed up
Kendall caught both of McClung’s games. I wouldn’t call Game 2 his fault. McClung’s calm, collected, control-ful day was pretty much over the second Teixeira ran into him.
by morineko on
Jun 2, 2008 12:27 PM CDT
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Clarifications
My Mike Rivera comment was at least somewhat tongue in cheek.
I’m sorry I missed the boat on the Beane Count.
I think you underestimate how easy it would be to play roster games to make a spot for Pena for 24 hours.
Let’s say, for example, the Brewers were planning on activating Eric Gagne from the DL on Wednesday, and optioning Mark DiFelice down to Nashville to free up a spot. Instead of optioning DiFelice and activating Gagne on Wednesday, they could option DiFelice on Tuesday, pick up Pena off waivers, keep him on the roster for a day, and DFA him again the next day when they activate Gagne.
Roster spots are valuable, but teams are transitioning players in and out all the time, especially when the DL is involved. It’d be pretty easy to find 5-8 teams who are going to activate a guy off the DL this week and could juggle his spot for 24 hours.
Derek Jeter is day to day after being hit by a pitch and being gorilla press slammed by a Bizarro Ray.
by KLSnow on
Jun 2, 2008 11:25 AM CDT
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you can make a 25-man spot
but you also need to be able to make a 40-man spot. The brewers didn’t have 40 on the 40-man, so moves like diFelice and Branyan were easy … but more often, teams are at capacity.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jun 2, 2008 11:44 AM CDT
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But even so,
I just took a quick glance, and 8 of the 16 teams in the NL have a spot open on their 40, some more than one. The Astros only have 34 players on their 40 man roster. Some of those teams may sign a draftee to a major league contract, but that still leaves spots available. Especially for a young catcher.
Several teams also have guys lurking on their 40 man who could easily be transitioned to the 60-day DL, like Orlando Hernandez or Mark Mulder.
Derek Jeter is day to day after being hit by a pitch and being gorilla press slammed by a Bizarro Ray.
by KLSnow on
Jun 2, 2008 12:02 PM CDT
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NL
Since the Royals were awarded the bid, you already know that no NL teams are interested. you need a perfect storm for your scenario to happen. A player, out of options, not worth giving anything up for (so you don’t trade), not worth a 40-man roster spot, (so you place him on waivers), but worth the roster shuffle, and not worth losing him for nothing…
the most likely version of this is two teams going back and forth, and eventually someone is not going to be willing to play a man down on the 25 for a certain length of time.
it’s definitely an interesting scenario, but not at all a “dangerous precent”
Bring Back The Old Logo!
by jacob on
Jun 2, 2008 12:23 PM CDT
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Really?
I always thought teams tried to keep a couple spots open for quick and easy additions in case of injury and the like. KLSnow beat me to the punch for the NL, but among major league teams, just less than half (14 total) have their 40-man roster full. Aside: the Rockies have 41 guys on their 40-man which leads me to further question the mlb.com rosters.
That said, I doubt many teams would do a lot of reshuffling for a guy like Brayan Pena. What really caught my eye going through the rosters was Mike Adams is in San Diego. He’s got seven strikeouts in seven innings and a WHIP of 1.00 in the majors so far.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on
Jun 2, 2008 12:12 PM CDT
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ah, you guys are right
I was thinking of the offseason, esp. Rule 5 time, when there really aren’t spots on 40-mans.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jun 2, 2008 12:32 PM CDT
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How can you compete with a line like this?!?!?!
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
—---—----—---—---—-----—-—-—--+
26 100 87 5 19 4 1 0 7 9 0 5 3 1 1 1 .218 .313 .287 .600
Jason Kendall’s ‘production’ since May 1st.
Clearly this is a hot hand that needs to be riden. At the very least until next year’s option vests.
by Getting Yosted on Jun 2, 2008 11:55 AM CDT 0 recs
I have to say
That video, it was pretty awesome.
Made me want to go teach choir and mess up all the Latin lyrics :)
"Brett Favre looks like a man in a parking lot playing with boys." - John Madden
"Pujols just unloaded." - Bob Uecker
by kirbir on Jun 2, 2008 3:49 PM CDT 0 recs






















