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The Linebrink trade, revisited

Now that the draft is over, it's safe to ask: just how bad was the Linebrink trade?  I guess we won't know the real outcome until we see how all 5 players develop (the three we traded and the two we picked up), but I'm curious about the reaction around the ol' gangbang, err, blog. 

You'll recall that we traded Will Inman (our 2nd round pick in the 2005 draft, in between Braun and Gamel) and left-handers Steve Garrison and Joe Thatcher for Linebrink, with the expectation that we would get two draft picks for Leiney if/when he signed elsewhere.  He signed with the White Sox in the offseason, meaning we received a player in the supplemental first round (our #3 pick, Evan Frederickson) as well as the White Sox's second round pick (our #5 pick, Cutter Dykstra).

Here's how the ex-Brewers are doing so far:

Let's say we made the playoffs last season.  I imagine the conventional wisdom would be, "Well, it cost us those three players, but it was worth it by playing in the postseason."  Since we didn't make the playoffs, one assumes that we rolled the 20-sided dice and lost, with a result somewhere in between "it was a good idea at the time" to "an unmitigated disaster."

 

In retrospect, I suppose you could make the argument that if Linebrink was worth 2 or (heaven forbid) 3 wins, then without Linebrink, we still might be looking for our first winning season since the dinosaurs roamed the Earth.  It's a hard argument to make, though: it's not that we traded those three good prospects for Linebrink, per se; we traded them for 25.33 innings of Linebrink's 3.55 ERA.  That's a smidge more than 8 innings per prospect.  (By comparison, Joe Thatcher's numbers over the same period of time for the Padres last season: 2-2, 21 IP, 1.29 ERA.)  It's hard not to think about that particular what-if: what if we replaced Linebrink with Thatcher, thus keeping Garrison and Inman?

(Feeling sick yet?  Did you happen to check out Linebrink's line for the White Sox this season?  How about a 1.55 ERA / .90 WHIP in 29 innings.)

For me to be OK with the trade, we'd need Frederickson to be about as good as Inman, who arguably was the centerpiece of the deal for the Padres.  Given our difficulties in producing quality SP from our minor leagues, though, I guess I'm a little leery of the wisdom of that trade, even in the middle of a playoff chase.

With that in mind, you'll forgive me if I look askance at the Laporta or Gamel for C. C. Sabathia rumors.

1 recs  |  Comment 10 comments

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Sure, hindsight is 20/20

Still, this didn’t look like a fantastic deal at the time, either.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jun 22, 2008 3:02 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes it did.

It looked like a great deal at the time. it still looks like a great deal.

Padres: about 135 games worth of thatcher, garrison, and inman: VORP = 1.9
Brewers: about 60 games worth of linebrink: VORP = 2.7

In retrospect the trade (without the comp picks) still tilts towards the brewers.

Yeah, inman and garrison may turn out to be better than replacement level players… But isn’t it just as, if not more likely that our 2 comp picks turn out to have more success? Hands down victory for the brewers. The Brewers received, arguably, the best reliever available at the deadline, in a close race for a division title, for joe thatcher (the definition of replacement level) and two pitchers with zero success above A ball.

The risk of low-level prospects is exciting, but i think you are confusing the value of an A-ball prospect with the value of an ML ready prospect and they are not close in value. ESPECIALLY for pitchers.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jun 22, 2008 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're absolutely right that the value of the compensatory picks for Linebrink.

The rest of the analysis is way off, however. You can’t evaluate this deal based upon the production of the players to date, but based upon the overall exchange. We’re talking about three months of Scott Linebrink compared to, what, 4-6 of club control for the other three? You also want to look at the opportunity cost of not being able to trade those three players for something that wasn’t Scott Linebrink.

by cwyers on Jun 22, 2008 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Garrison struck out 11 in 7 innings tonight

(It’s still tonight, right?) I think Garrison has a change to end up being the best player out of that deal. He really seems to be blossoming.

Still, Evan Frederickson had a really nice game of his own in his debut, and it’s going to take years, like you said, to really ascertain the true value involved.

What may trouble some people is Melvin’s assertion in the paper today that he wouldn’t hesitate to pull another prospects-for-rental trade. Me, I don’t mind the concept, it’s just that this particular one was poorly conceived. Some people, though, are against the idea whole-cloth.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 22, 2008 3:47 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

You're a better man than I, Gunga Din

Trading prospects for rentals will always make me nervous. Prospects for prospects, I’m OK with, or a deal for someone like Grienke (who we would control for a few more years). Prospects for 2 months of anyone short of Braun, though - I dunno, it seems like it has a low probability of it working out.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jun 22, 2008 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know everyone hates the Journal Sentinel but today...

they wrote about potential pitchers who could be available come the deadline. I knew Zach Grienke could become available, but Matt Cain was on that list as well.

If we’re going to use our big time prospects, lets go after one of these guys with Matt Cain a little bit ahead. Cain is a free agent in 2012 while Grienke is a free agent in 2011.

Forget C.C., let’s target these guys.

by brewfan2 on Jun 22, 2008 10:12 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

the word "prospects"

People always get too worked up when they hear the word prospects. I remember when we got Zach Jackson. People were freaking out (in a good way) because we got Toronto’s #1 pitching “prospect”, even though there were serious questions about whether or not he could actually pitch. In hindsight, he wasn’t much of a prospect.

Take Thatcher. Might he have a career as a useful LOOGY? Sure, but is it likely that his value is anything above your standard Shouse/Tony “The Mechanic” Fossas/Steve Kline? Not really. He sure looks like your typical replacement level pitcher that you can find without any real trouble, thereby making his value a lot less than what people think, regardless a 1.29 ERA in a totally irrelevant sample size might make you believe. Bottom line is that he was and remains expendable.

Now, maybe Inman or Garrison turn into Johan Santana, but neither was viewed as an elite level prospect, and certainly no better than the guys they drafted with the compensation picks.

Bottom line is that the bullpen was a mess and Melvin made a play by giving up a couple of non-elite prospects. Time wil be the true judge of the trade of course, but I think it was a good move at the time.

Not all prospects turn into Jeff Bagwell.

by badgermaniac on Jun 22, 2008 4:24 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

No, that's true

I get the same reaction when talking about Atlanta’s #1 erstwhile pitching prospect, Capellan. Seems to me they did fine without him.

I was under the impression, though, that Inman was better regarded than you seem to be implying. I could be mistaken about that though.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jun 22, 2008 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Inman isn't particularly well-regarded, stuff-wise

No one can indict his performance, but scouts seem pretty unanimous in their opinion that he is not an elite pitching prospect; he simply doesn’t have the stuff (according to them). We’ll know soon enough, I suppose, and even that opinion doesn’t rule out him being a back-of-the-rotation innings guy, or a bullpen arm, both of which have value.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 22, 2008 7:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Inman

was the kind of guy that a lot of ‘stat geeks’ liked and the scouts never thought much of. He had great control, could trick young hitters, and just kept getting people out. Apparently the ‘stuff’ was unimpressive because he didn’t have one ‘out pitch.’

Kevin Goldstein of BP assessed him in FEB in his review of the Padres’ system:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7162 (subscription required)

Signs were that Linebrink was not 100% when they acquired him. Regardless of what he is doing this year, I didn’t like that trade, but I don’t think it hurt us too bad because it gave us two draft picks and wasn’t a totally unreasonable gamble at the time. The Brewers’ collapse that yielded the division lead was not Linebrink’s fault, and Joe Thatcher could have been a lot worse in a different ballpark vs. different opponents.

The trade might have worked out better last year if Melvin threw in Yost as a bullpen catcher. That might have been worth 2-3 wins down the stretch.

by baumann on Jun 22, 2008 7:51 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

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