Game Thread #61: Brewers (32-28) at Rockies (22-38)

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 6:37 PM CDT 0 recs

Coloradon'ts?

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jun 6, 2008 6:59 PM CDT up 0 recs

Jeffress so far tonight: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 6:58 PM CDT 0 recs

I am glad I predicted that he wouldn't have trouble with A+

Sure his ERA is still above 6 but 28/8 K/BB ratio without todays stats and really the control is there for just coming off the restricted list. 8 walks in 19 1/3 innings is not too shabby. I think he will be in Huntsville by the end of the season. I am very very high on him if he can stay clean.

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by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:13 PM CDT up 0 recs

4/1 K/BB in 4 IP today

He really only had one bad inning, a couple starts ago. He’s been dominant. It would be great if he made it up to AA before the end of the year.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 7:21 PM CDT up 0 recs

Jeffress on fire

6.0 3 0 0 1 8 now. I’ll take 8Ks and 1 walk in 6 innings anytime.

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by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:41 PM CDT up 0 recs

Too bad they don't say how many pitches he has thrown in the in game box

I’d love to know if he has another inning or two left before his limit.

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by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:43 PM CDT up 0 recs

It does tell you he has an 8/1 GO/AO ratio, which is pretty freakin' sweet

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 7:44 PM CDT up 0 recs

Wow I didn't even see that

That many strikeouts and that many grounders usually don’t happen together. He must be improving his slider to be getting that many grounders because his fastball is 99 MPH of high heat.

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by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:46 PM CDT up 0 recs

Speaking of high groundball ratios

One of my favorite unheralded guys, Evan Anundsen, is also pitching tonight. He was a fourth-round pick two years ago out of Columbine HS (yes, that Columbine), and he has interesting strikeout potential to go with his 2.47 (coming into today; 6/2 today) GO/AO ratio.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 7:48 PM CDT up 0 recs

I wonder how well GB/FB translates from minors to majors

Or even from A to AA. Jeff?

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by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:52 PM CDT up 0 recs

I don't really know

but I’m pretty sure the correlation is stronger than that of K rate.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2008 8:11 PM CDT up 0 recs

actually, yes I do know

not for any particular level-to-level, but for all minor leaguers, most of whom, you’d assume, change levels at some point:

At the 20 IP threshhold, there are more than 1,600 minor league pitchers who qualified in both 2006 and 2007. The correlation in GB/FB rates for that population is 0.61—quite a bit better than the corresponding number for college to the minors (0.42). Probably a little of that improvement is due to the fact that the average inning total is higher in the minor league pool, but more is due to the consistency between the environments. At the 35 IP threshhold, there is less of a difference between our minor-to-minor and college-to-minor comparisons: The correlation for 2006/2007 minor league pitchers’ groundball rates is 0.66 (vs. 0.56 for college-to-minors).

link

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2008 8:13 PM CDT up 0 recs

What is it for K rate?

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 8:14 PM CDT up 0 recs

that I don't know.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2008 8:17 PM CDT up 0 recs

here's something

year to year in the majors, it’s .72. link. I’m certain someone has done the work to find the correlation of AAA/MLB K rate, but ~0.6 is probably a good guess until i find it or figure it myself.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2008 8:42 PM CDT up 0 recs

How do you do the MLEs?

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 8:47 PM CDT up 0 recs

MLE's have a multiplier

I don’t know what it is offhand - but the multiplier represents the average change - say, K rate decreases by 10% from AAA to MLB.

Correlation refers to how reliable that multiplier is, which is a different issue entirely.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2008 8:49 PM CDT up 0 recs

Thanks for that Jeff!

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by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 8:58 PM CDT up 0 recs

His GB/AO is 0.67 for the year so quite a change.

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by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:46 PM CDT up 0 recs

His ERA is 5.13 now after 7 shutout innings

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 7:57 PM CDT up 0 recs

That is down almost 2 runs

He will be under 4 in a start or two.

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by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:59 PM CDT up 0 recs

Some things I am looking forward too

I think Sheets might do ok at Coors with his new found velocity on his fastball. PITCHf/x thinks that straight, fast, fastballs should do well there. Also look for him to mix in more change ups which should be more effective than his curve at Coors.

I am drooling at the thought of how far Russell can hit a ball at Coors. Maybe a 500 foot shot this weekend.

I really think a 4 of 6 road trip is very doable here. Sheets is pitching twice and we seem to have some ok pitching match ups this road trip.

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by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:17 PM CDT 0 recs

"newfound velocity"

Can you elaborate?

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 7:20 PM CDT up 0 recs

This year his speed is up for whatever reason

I know it doesn’t look like it on his player card because it is lumping his change ups and sinkers in with his fastballs but when you remove that his fastball is up nearly a MPH on average. Jim has suggested it is mostly due to him having his fastball from inning 1 not waiting until inning 3 or 4 like last year. I am not sure about that but his average fastball is close to 95 right now. In a contract year no less :)

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by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:30 PM CDT up 0 recs

Awesome

I didn’t realize that. Thanks dixie.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 7:43 PM CDT up 0 recs

interesting collection of stats at Denver Post

Here. It includes some gambling info as well, which I don’t understand.

by ol Pete on Jun 6, 2008 7:30 PM CDT 0 recs

So the 120 home and -140 away

That means you if you bet 100 on the Rockies tonight you win 120 but you have to bet 140 on the brewers to win 100 back. The reason those are different is the house’s edge. Opening line is what the line opened at so if that is different from the current line you can see who the money is coming in on. I actually have never placed a bet but know several people who bet a good deal so I know a lot of this stuff.

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by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:40 PM CDT up 0 recs

Thanks. Gambling on baseball seems like something that would be hard as hell.

by ol Pete on Jun 6, 2008 7:45 PM CDT up 0 recs

Actually from what I understand it is far easier than football

Apparently the lines on NFL games are just spot on because how much money is coming in on those games. There are so many baseball games that the money is very spread out so the lines can be softer. If you really understand variables like home field and who is available in the the pen you can do pretty well. I obviously wouldn’t recommend it but I do know one person who basically makes a living betting only on baseball games.

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by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:51 PM CDT up 0 recs

Tell Pete Rose I said Hi

And ask him for the $50 he owes me.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jun 6, 2008 7:58 PM CDT up 0 recs

Yeah you wonder how he lost money when he was betting

He certainly should know a lot about the game managing and all. His bookies must have given him some terrible lines for the Reds know he was going to bet for them to win.

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by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 8:00 PM CDT up 0 recs

That's where he made his money

And promptly lost it on every sport that wasn’t baseball.

by Getting Yosted on Jun 6, 2008 8:28 PM CDT up 0 recs

he certainly

wasn’t spending it on good haircuts.

by molitorfan on Jun 6, 2008 8:29 PM CDT up 0 recs

Kapler starting over Cameron

Smart move..can Kapler keep it going?

by brew82 on Jun 6, 2008 7:42 PM CDT 0 recs

Cam has really been slumping

But you would kind of like his defense in this huge park. That said, Kapler is supposed to be pretty good in center too.

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by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:44 PM CDT up 0 recs

Michael Brantley led off Huntsville's game with a homer

box score

He has three homers in his last nine games after having two in his entire professional career up through two weeks ago. If he can add even Escobar-level power to his game, he becomes much more interesting as a prospect (check out his age).

Perhaps he’s stealing some power from his (much larger) twin, Kyle Blanks: