Game Thread #61: Brewers (32-28) at Rockies (22-38)
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2008 6:30 PM CDT
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PrintFinally, oh finally, can I phrase something like this in a way that reflects a GOOD surprise: Who would've thought that the Brewers would be 10 games better than the Rockies at this point in the season? Not a good start for the Coloradans.
The matchup is Ben Sheets and Ubaldo Jimenez, which is the sort of thing that turns 10 games into 11 games. In a special ceremony tonight, first round pick Brett Lawrie will be Jason Kendall's designated hitter. The future is now!
Game time is a Rocky Mountain-tastic 8:05 CT, and here's the BR Game Preview.
Go restocked Brewers!
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Coloradon'ts?
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
I am glad I predicted that he wouldn't have trouble with A+
Sure his ERA is still above 6 but 28/8 K/BB ratio without todays stats and really the control is there for just coming off the restricted list. 8 walks in 19 1/3 innings is not too shabby. I think he will be in Huntsville by the end of the season. I am very very high on him if he can stay clean.
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions
4/1 K/BB in 4 IP today
He really only had one bad inning, a couple starts ago. He’s been dominant. It would be great if he made it up to AA before the end of the year.
He's extremely quick and good.
Jeffress on fire
6.0 3 0 0 1 8 now. I’ll take 8Ks and 1 walk in 6 innings anytime.
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Too bad they don't say how many pitches he has thrown in the in game box
I’d love to know if he has another inning or two left before his limit.
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions
It does tell you he has an 8/1 GO/AO ratio, which is pretty freakin' sweet
He's extremely quick and good.
Wow I didn't even see that
That many strikeouts and that many grounders usually don’t happen together. He must be improving his slider to be getting that many grounders because his fastball is 99 MPH of high heat.
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Speaking of high groundball ratios
One of my favorite unheralded guys, Evan Anundsen, is also pitching tonight. He was a fourth-round pick two years ago out of Columbine HS (yes, that Columbine), and he has interesting strikeout potential to go with his 2.47 (coming into today; 6/2 today) GO/AO ratio.
He's extremely quick and good.
I wonder how well GB/FB translates from minors to majors
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:52 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't really know
but I’m pretty sure the correlation is stronger than that of K rate.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2008 8:11 PM CDT up reply actions
actually, yes I do know
not for any particular level-to-level, but for all minor leaguers, most of whom, you’d assume, change levels at some point:
At the 20 IP threshhold, there are more than 1,600 minor league pitchers who qualified in both 2006 and 2007. The correlation in GB/FB rates for that population is 0.61—quite a bit better than the corresponding number for college to the minors (0.42). Probably a little of that improvement is due to the fact that the average inning total is higher in the minor league pool, but more is due to the consistency between the environments. At the 35 IP threshhold, there is less of a difference between our minor-to-minor and college-to-minor comparisons: The correlation for 2006/2007 minor league pitchers’ groundball rates is 0.66 (vs. 0.56 for college-to-minors).
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2008 8:13 PM CDT up reply actions
here's something
year to year in the majors, it’s .72. link. I’m certain someone has done the work to find the correlation of AAA/MLB K rate, but ~0.6 is probably a good guess until i find it or figure it myself.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2008 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions
MLE's have a multiplier
I don’t know what it is offhand - but the multiplier represents the average change - say, K rate decreases by 10% from AAA to MLB.
Correlation refers to how reliable that multiplier is, which is a different issue entirely.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2008 8:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Some things I am looking forward too
I think Sheets might do ok at Coors with his new found velocity on his fastball. PITCHf/x thinks that straight, fast, fastballs should do well there. Also look for him to mix in more change ups which should be more effective than his curve at Coors.
I am drooling at the thought of how far Russell can hit a ball at Coors. Maybe a 500 foot shot this weekend.
I really think a 4 of 6 road trip is very doable here. Sheets is pitching twice and we seem to have some ok pitching match ups this road trip.
This year his speed is up for whatever reason
I know it doesn’t look like it on his player card because it is lumping his change ups and sinkers in with his fastballs but when you remove that his fastball is up nearly a MPH on average. Jim has suggested it is mostly due to him having his fastball from inning 1 not waiting until inning 3 or 4 like last year. I am not sure about that but his average fastball is close to 95 right now. In a contract year no less :)
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions
interesting collection of stats at Denver Post
Here. It includes some gambling info as well, which I don’t understand.
So the 120 home and -140 away
That means you if you bet 100 on the Rockies tonight you win 120 but you have to bet 140 on the brewers to win 100 back. The reason those are different is the house’s edge. Opening line is what the line opened at so if that is different from the current line you can see who the money is coming in on. I actually have never placed a bet but know several people who bet a good deal so I know a lot of this stuff.
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Actually from what I understand it is far easier than football
Apparently the lines on NFL games are just spot on because how much money is coming in on those games. There are so many baseball games that the money is very spread out so the lines can be softer. If you really understand variables like home field and who is available in the the pen you can do pretty well. I obviously wouldn’t recommend it but I do know one person who basically makes a living betting only on baseball games.
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Tell Pete Rose I said Hi
And ask him for the $50 he owes me.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Yeah you wonder how he lost money when he was betting
He certainly should know a lot about the game managing and all. His bookies must have given him some terrible lines for the Reds know he was going to bet for them to win.
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 8:00 PM CDT up reply actions
That's where he made his money
And promptly lost it on every sport that wasn’t baseball.
by Getting Yosted on Jun 6, 2008 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Cam has really been slumping
But you would kind of like his defense in this huge park. That said, Kapler is supposed to be pretty good in center too.
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Michael Brantley led off Huntsville's game with a homer
He has three homers in his last nine games after having two in his entire professional career up through two weeks ago. If he can add even Escobar-level power to his game, he becomes much more interesting as a prospect (check out his age).
Perhaps he’s stealing some power from his (much larger) twin, Kyle Blanks:
He's extremely quick and good.
BTW if anyone is watching the game on MLB's gameday
The PITCHf/x camera there is very slow. Generally a couple of MPHs slower depending on the type of pitch it was.
Man, I can't even see the ball
Turns out starting Kapler was a good idea.
He's extremely quick and good.
Funny
the Colorado announcers spent a lot of Rickie’s at bat killing him for his OBP and then he walked.
Did they talk about his batting average?
It’s stupid to nail him for having a .320 OBP without noting that he has excellent patience but an awful batting average.
He's extremely quick and good.
It's weird to be watching MLB after having my head in the draft for two days
It’s like, “oh yeah, this is why we get excited about the draft in the first place.”
He's extremely quick and good.
i'm pretty sure we get excited about the draft for its own sake.
after all, i just went through a spreadsheet, flagging non-D1 guys who were drafted.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2008 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Okay, you're definitely right
But you’re not supposed to tell people that, or we’ll get looked at funny.
He's extremely quick and good.
?
but trenni has him a couple of levels below braun
Colorado announcers
are drooling over how hard Rickie ran down the line. They even dropped the “kids, if you are watching” line.
that was an ugly inning
Jimenez with a high ERA and one win. I wonder if he is pitching a lot better tonight or others were able to hit this stuff.
Whew
Almost thought Sheets should pitch around Torrealba with the weak hitting pitcher next, but glad he didn’t.
Brevard County went into the 10th tied 0-0, then gave up a run in the top
The bottom:
- Pitcher Change: Robert Delaney replaces Blair Erickson.
- Brent Brewer grounds out, shortstop Yancarlos Ortiz to first baseman Whitney Robbins.
- Darren Ford singles on a ground ball to third baseman Daniel Valencia.
- With Lorenzo Cain batting, Darren Ford steals (31) 2nd base.
- Lorenzo Cain strikes out swinging.
- Robert Delaney intentionally walks Taylor Green.
- Offensive Substitution: Pinch runner Jimmy Mojica replaces Taylor Green.
- Charlie Fermaint singles on a line drive to right fielder Edward Ovalle. Darren Ford scores. Jimmy Mojica to 3rd.
- With Chuck Caufield batting, Charlie Fermaint advances to 2nd on defensive indifference.
- Chuck Caufield strikes out swinging.
He's extremely quick and good.
Yeah, and with Brewer & Fermaint on the team, he's only the third-toolsiest disappointment!
He's extremely quick and good.
Why do they play anyone in left field agains Kendall?
There should be a player camped on the right field line, someone in right center and another playing dead center.
by Getting Yosted on Jun 6, 2008 10:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Radio
Since my TV was a radio anyway I decided I may as well turn on the real radio!
by kingcharlesxii on Jun 6, 2008 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Do you have to be a pitching coach to notice that Corpas is dropping his elbow and has no control?
He's extremely quick and good.
is that a trick question?
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2008 10:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Phils-Braves
awesome game. Victorino threw out the potentially tying run to end the game in the bottom of the 10th.
The Braves
have turned losing 1 run games into an art form. Liquor sales have tripled down here in the last month and a half as fans are drinking themselves to sleep nearly every night!!
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
Is Yost awake
in the dugout yet?
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
maybe we can trade him to the giants?
with Bill Hall for Matt Cain?
by Oakland Brewer Fan on Jun 6, 2008 10:24 PM CDT up reply actions
wow
that sucked…and is still sucking
by Oakland Brewer Fan on Jun 6, 2008 10:23 PM CDT reply actions
Why did he pull Villy?
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
Rockies announcers just noticed.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2008 10:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah your right.
In this park a bloop and a blast takes on a whole new meaning. So pinch hit for Kendall to start the inning? I know he had that triple but he has not been swinging well. In either case who bats for the pitcher? Counsell?
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Well the Marlins lost as well
So did the Braves and the leading Cards. So not too bad. But an opportunity lost if they can’t come back.
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions
he ought to though
if they don’t score runs, they won’t need him anyway. and if they do need him, it probably means rivera did well:P
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 6, 2008 10:33 PM CDT up reply actions
shouse...
it’s willy taveras!
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
Huntsville
also gave up a 5 run inning to fall behind but just got 2 back in the bottom of 8 and are now back up 10-9. How about a game of follow the minors?? ;-)
The Wallbangers won because they played the game like kids! Let's do that again!!!
Whoa - Turnbow and Gagne?
I’m pretty sure four-pitch walks aren’t a part of the cycle.
C. Magruder scored, R. Weeks to second on balk
hey...
the day branyan got called up (or day after:P), it worked
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 6, 2008 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions
that was bullshit
"If there is a more reactionary blog with idiotic commentary out there I'd be surprised." -On Bleed Cubbie Blue
Sad
Well Greg Reynolds who has a 9/18 K/BB ratio is pitching tomorrow. Hopefully we can get to him and put it away early.
Maybe I will be the pays big 21 contestant tomorrow.
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Too early
to call up Jake Odorizzi?
"My thing is that you guys eat meat all day and you can't hit a ball. That's my thing." - P. Fielder
on the not so bright side
that didn’t do any good two nights ago.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 6, 2008 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions
I wondered about not playing Cameron in a really big park, but he Kapler had a big hit to start everything out.
The other thing with Cam is he has played in this park a lot
But things like that are really splitting hairs. If Mota had been even half way decent and just given up two runs we wouldn’t even be thinking about it.
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Lincecum won again today
And the Giants almost traded him before the season started. Can we trade the farm for him? I mean literally the entire farm system for him.
And now the umps are hosing the Dodgers
Hu got a bad strike call an inning earlier and now Kent rung up on one that was low and over the batter box line.
On the positive side
The cost of his jersey probably just went down a few bucks.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.15.2012 at 1:03 PM CST)
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