Game Thread #61: Brewers (32-28) at Rockies (22-38)
Finally, oh finally, can I phrase something like this in a way that reflects a GOOD surprise: Who would've thought that the Brewers would be 10 games better than the Rockies at this point in the season? Not a good start for the Coloradans.
The matchup is Ben Sheets and Ubaldo Jimenez, which is the sort of thing that turns 10 games into 11 games. In a special ceremony tonight, first round pick Brett Lawrie will be Jason Kendall's designated hitter. The future is now!
Game time is a Rocky Mountain-tastic 8:05 CT, and here's the BR Game Preview.
Go restocked Brewers!
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Coloradon'ts?
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on
Jun 6, 2008 6:59 PM CDT
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Jeffress so far tonight: 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 6:58 PM CDT 0 recs
I am glad I predicted that he wouldn't have trouble with A+
Sure his ERA is still above 6 but 28/8 K/BB ratio without todays stats and really the control is there for just coming off the restricted list. 8 walks in 19 1/3 innings is not too shabby. I think he will be in Huntsville by the end of the season. I am very very high on him if he can stay clean.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 6, 2008 7:13 PM CDT
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4/1 K/BB in 4 IP today
He really only had one bad inning, a couple starts ago. He’s been dominant. It would be great if he made it up to AA before the end of the year.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jun 6, 2008 7:21 PM CDT
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Jeffress on fire
6.0 3 0 0 1 8 now. I’ll take 8Ks and 1 walk in 6 innings anytime.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 6, 2008 7:41 PM CDT
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Too bad they don't say how many pitches he has thrown in the in game box
I’d love to know if he has another inning or two left before his limit.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 6, 2008 7:43 PM CDT
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It does tell you he has an 8/1 GO/AO ratio, which is pretty freakin' sweet
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jun 6, 2008 7:44 PM CDT
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Wow I didn't even see that
That many strikeouts and that many grounders usually don’t happen together. He must be improving his slider to be getting that many grounders because his fastball is 99 MPH of high heat.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 6, 2008 7:46 PM CDT
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Speaking of high groundball ratios
One of my favorite unheralded guys, Evan Anundsen, is also pitching tonight. He was a fourth-round pick two years ago out of Columbine HS (yes, that Columbine), and he has interesting strikeout potential to go with his 2.47 (coming into today; 6/2 today) GO/AO ratio.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jun 6, 2008 7:48 PM CDT
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I wonder how well GB/FB translates from minors to majors
by dixieflatline on
Jun 6, 2008 7:52 PM CDT
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I don't really know
but I’m pretty sure the correlation is stronger than that of K rate.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jun 6, 2008 8:11 PM CDT
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actually, yes I do know
not for any particular level-to-level, but for all minor leaguers, most of whom, you’d assume, change levels at some point:
At the 20 IP threshhold, there are more than 1,600 minor league pitchers who qualified in both 2006 and 2007. The correlation in GB/FB rates for that population is 0.61—quite a bit better than the corresponding number for college to the minors (0.42). Probably a little of that improvement is due to the fact that the average inning total is higher in the minor league pool, but more is due to the consistency between the environments. At the 35 IP threshhold, there is less of a difference between our minor-to-minor and college-to-minor comparisons: The correlation for 2006/2007 minor league pitchers’ groundball rates is 0.66 (vs. 0.56 for college-to-minors).
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jun 6, 2008 8:13 PM CDT
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What is it for K rate?
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jun 6, 2008 8:14 PM CDT
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here's something
year to year in the majors, it’s .72. link. I’m certain someone has done the work to find the correlation of AAA/MLB K rate, but ~0.6 is probably a good guess until i find it or figure it myself.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jun 6, 2008 8:42 PM CDT
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How do you do the MLEs?
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jun 6, 2008 8:47 PM CDT
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MLE's have a multiplier
I don’t know what it is offhand - but the multiplier represents the average change - say, K rate decreases by 10% from AAA to MLB.
Correlation refers to how reliable that multiplier is, which is a different issue entirely.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jun 6, 2008 8:49 PM CDT
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Thanks for that Jeff!
by dixieflatline on
Jun 6, 2008 8:58 PM CDT
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His ERA is 5.13 now after 7 shutout innings
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jun 6, 2008 7:57 PM CDT
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That is down almost 2 runs
by dixieflatline on
Jun 6, 2008 7:59 PM CDT
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Some things I am looking forward too
I think Sheets might do ok at Coors with his new found velocity on his fastball. PITCHf/x thinks that straight, fast, fastballs should do well there. Also look for him to mix in more change ups which should be more effective than his curve at Coors.
I am drooling at the thought of how far Russell can hit a ball at Coors. Maybe a 500 foot shot this weekend.
I really think a 4 of 6 road trip is very doable here. Sheets is pitching twice and we seem to have some ok pitching match ups this road trip.
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 7:17 PM CDT 0 recs
"newfound velocity"
Can you elaborate?
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jun 6, 2008 7:20 PM CDT
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This year his speed is up for whatever reason
I know it doesn’t look like it on his player card because it is lumping his change ups and sinkers in with his fastballs but when you remove that his fastball is up nearly a MPH on average. Jim has suggested it is mostly due to him having his fastball from inning 1 not waiting until inning 3 or 4 like last year. I am not sure about that but his average fastball is close to 95 right now. In a contract year no less :)
by dixieflatline on
Jun 6, 2008 7:30 PM CDT
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Awesome
I didn’t realize that. Thanks dixie.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jun 6, 2008 7:43 PM CDT
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interesting collection of stats at Denver Post
Here. It includes some gambling info as well, which I don’t understand.
by ol Pete on Jun 6, 2008 7:30 PM CDT 0 recs
So the 120 home and -140 away
That means you if you bet 100 on the Rockies tonight you win 120 but you have to bet 140 on the brewers to win 100 back. The reason those are different is the house’s edge. Opening line is what the line opened at so if that is different from the current line you can see who the money is coming in on. I actually have never placed a bet but know several people who bet a good deal so I know a lot of this stuff.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 6, 2008 7:40 PM CDT
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Thanks. Gambling on baseball seems like something that would be hard as hell.
by ol Pete on
Jun 6, 2008 7:45 PM CDT
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Actually from what I understand it is far easier than football
Apparently the lines on NFL games are just spot on because how much money is coming in on those games. There are so many baseball games that the money is very spread out so the lines can be softer. If you really understand variables like home field and who is available in the the pen you can do pretty well. I obviously wouldn’t recommend it but I do know one person who basically makes a living betting only on baseball games.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 6, 2008 7:51 PM CDT
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Tell Pete Rose I said Hi
And ask him for the $50 he owes me.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on
Jun 6, 2008 7:58 PM CDT
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Yeah you wonder how he lost money when he was betting
He certainly should know a lot about the game managing and all. His bookies must have given him some terrible lines for the Reds know he was going to bet for them to win.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 6, 2008 8:00 PM CDT
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That's where he made his money
And promptly lost it on every sport that wasn’t baseball.
by Getting Yosted on
Jun 6, 2008 8:28 PM CDT
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he certainly
wasn’t spending it on good haircuts.
by molitorfan on
Jun 6, 2008 8:29 PM CDT
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Kapler starting over Cameron
Smart move..can Kapler keep it going?
by brew82 on Jun 6, 2008 7:42 PM CDT 0 recs
Cam has really been slumping
But you would kind of like his defense in this huge park. That said, Kapler is supposed to be pretty good in center too.
by dixieflatline on
Jun 6, 2008 7:44 PM CDT
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Michael Brantley led off Huntsville's game with a homer
He has three homers in his last nine games after having two in his entire professional career up through two weeks ago. If he can add even Escobar-level power to his game, he becomes much more interesting as a prospect (check out his age).
Perhaps he’s stealing some power from his (much larger) twin, Kyle Blanks:

He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 7:54 PM CDT 0 recs
Huntsville's cleaning up again
Seven runs in four innings so far.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jun 6, 2008 8:49 PM CDT
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BTW if anyone is watching the game on MLB's gameday
The PITCHf/x camera there is very slow. Generally a couple of MPHs slower depending on the type of pitch it was.
by dixieflatline on Jun 6, 2008 8:03 PM CDT 0 recs
It's really bright out there by second
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 8:09 PM CDT 0 recs
Man, I can't even see the ball
Turns out starting Kapler was a good idea.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 8:10 PM CDT 0 recs
Funny
the Colorado announcers spent a lot of Rickie’s at bat killing him for his OBP and then he walked.
by molitorfan on Jun 6, 2008 8:12 PM CDT 0 recs
Did they talk about his batting average?
It’s stupid to nail him for having a .320 OBP without noting that he has excellent patience but an awful batting average.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jun 6, 2008 8:13 PM CDT
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yes
but they said a leadoff hitter should have a higher OBP
by molitorfan on
Jun 6, 2008 8:16 PM CDT
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The d-backs guys got a good chuckle over McClung too. Or maybe I should call them the e-backs
by ol Pete on
Jun 6, 2008 8:14 PM CDT
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It's weird to be watching MLB after having my head in the draft for two days
It’s like, “oh yeah, this is why we get excited about the draft in the first place.”
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 8:12 PM CDT 0 recs
i'm pretty sure we get excited about the draft for its own sake.
after all, i just went through a spreadsheet, flagging non-D1 guys who were drafted.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jun 6, 2008 8:15 PM CDT
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Okay, you're definitely right
But you’re not supposed to tell people that, or we’ll get looked at funny.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jun 6, 2008 8:17 PM CDT
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Hey, no interference call
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 8:16 PM CDT 0 recs
If the gun is slow - he's bringinig it
Clocked at 98 on one pitch.
by ol Pete on Jun 6, 2008 8:17 PM CDT 0 recs
Dive, James Jerry
That was not a tremendous display of range.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 8:22 PM CDT 0 recs
How hot does pitchf/x have Ben?
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 8:25 PM CDT 0 recs
that double
was hot well. At least it wasn’t cheap.
by molitorfan on
Jun 6, 2008 8:35 PM CDT
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Hard to get your mind off Trenni, innit?
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 8:38 PM CDT 0 recs
Colorado announcers
are drooling over how hard Rickie ran down the line. They even dropped the “kids, if you are watching” line.
by molitorfan on Jun 6, 2008 8:43 PM CDT 0 recs
that was an ugly inning
Jimenez with a high ERA and one win. I wonder if he is pitching a lot better tonight or others were able to hit this stuff.
by ol Pete on Jun 6, 2008 8:57 PM CDT 0 recs
Rockies
are getting some nice swings on Sheets so far
by molitorfan on Jun 6, 2008 8:59 PM CDT 0 recs
"The Brewers had a lot of interest in Torrealba"
Oy.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Jun 6, 2008 9:04 PM CDT 0 recs
Whew
Almost thought Sheets should pitch around Torrealba with the weak hitting pitcher next, but glad he didn’t.
by oconnobe on Jun 6, 2008 9:05 PM CDT 0 recs
So, uh...
is Branyan officially hot?
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2008 9:07 PM CDT 0 recs
will kendall make it three in a row?
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 6, 2008 9:09 PM CDT 0 recs


