Sunday's Plastic Cup

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 8, 2008 10:00 AM CDT in News Comment 26 comments

Another short one, but hey--you can get wasted once the game starts.

Jim Powell interviewed first round pick Brett Lawrie. You can listen here.

McCalvy reports that Branyan wants to cut down on his strikeouts . To me, that sounds like Trey Parker and Matt Stone saying they want less profanity in South Park. For the most part, this is a delayed version of the typical spring training narrative of why the player is going to be so much better this year. Fortunately in this case, Branyan already does seem better. He can say whatever he wants, and my bet is that he's going to keep K'ing every 3 or 4 ABs, and the home runs will be right there with them.

Colin Wyers (cwyers) at Goat Riders analyzes the Cubs defense. A couple of non-surprises: Fukudome looks really good, and whether you'd like counting stats or rate stats, Pie has been better this year than Edmonds.

Why does Jay Bruce think he's off to such a hot start? Sample size. Really.

The college super-regionals are going on right now--eight three-game series will determine who gets in to the College World Series, which starts next Saturday. Stanford clinched the first spot with a win over Fullerton last night, and there could be a lot more teams qualifying with wins today. You can follow the action from one nifty application here. That link also shows which games are televised, and on which ESPN channel.

Game time is 2:05 CT this afternoon. The Brewers won't suck today. I promise.

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Thanks for the plug, Jeff.

Here’s the same chart for the Brewers. ZR seems to think that Fielder is having a poor year fielding. I’m a little more suspect of these numbers than I am with the Cubs numbers – Hardy, for example, shows up here as the best defensive shortstop in the NL. STATS, Inc. ZR has him as the worst, however. I haven’t looked at too many other positions, but what the Brewers do with positioning seems to throw off the ZR systems.

On a team level, the Brewers are about three runs below average so far, putting them middle of the pack.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jun 8, 2008 11:01 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Wow

Cardinals 32 runs above average? There’s another reason for the unexpected start.

by Jordan M on Jun 8, 2008 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is some nice work there cwyers

Do you have any idea how the constant over shift by the Brewers is affecting these numbers? How does his zone change when he is playing right behind the bag at second?

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Jun 8, 2008 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't speak for how BIS does their Zone Ratings specifically...

...but I don’t think that they change zones based upon fielder positioning. (I know STATS, Inc. doesn’t.) That makes sense, because they don’t record fielder positioning. The best you can do is try to extrapolate from what you do know – batter/pitcher handedness, base/out state, count (infielders will play in on speedy guys early in the count, and then play back when they get to two strikes), etc.

But without someone actually recording defender positioning at the time of the play, we’re really just shooting craps. In the case of a wishbone shift, for example, we’re clearly missing that part of the picture entirely.

But without access to the underlying PBP data, I really can’t tell you how the shift affects the Brewer’s RZR numbers. We know that they are - the Brewers have an above-average number of OOZ plays while having a below-average RZR as a team. That’s true for the infield and outfield.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jun 8, 2008 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well that seems to say that BIS isn't shifting the zones either

If they make their money selling to MLB teams you kind of wonder how they can get away without shifting the zones. How useful is that information when you really can’t compare JJ or Rickie to other middle infielders because of the way we play? I really would love to write up a piece on how the shift is helping or hurting the Brewers but I can’t because I don’t really have the data to go on. We need the position of the fielders to be recorded for every AB. I wonder if anyone has that data?

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Jun 8, 2008 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure nobody records it

Though you can use the available stats (zone stats + MLBAM hit location data) to estimate who is shifting the most.

I would imagine recording positioning would be very difficult without cameras:
a) differences are (sometimes) slight, and recorders are working in the press box, without a great view (for minor shifts, anyway), and certainly not with the same view in every park.
b) most stats are recorded on a play-by-play basis, and some shifts change in mid at-bat.

Seems like a relatively easy thing for cameras to record, though, now that they’re there.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 8, 2008 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

BIS uses video scouts...

...so there’s no reason they can’t record that data, I don’t think, other than time/expense. You’d have to define a set point to record positioning – my preference would be either for when the pitch is delivered or when the bat makes contact.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jun 8, 2008 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

do you know what video they have?

I don’t.

But I can imagine a video feed that is sufficient for batter/pitcher outcomes that wouldn’t always provide enough information for seven fielders at delivery or contact.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 8, 2008 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, but I do know that they have X/Y coordinate fielding data...

...that’s the basis for PMR and SAFE. So if they’re able to get fielder positioning when the ball is fielded, they should have the ability to do it for before the ball is fielded, as well.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jun 8, 2008 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does someone chart it while watching video?

by ol Pete on Jun 8, 2008 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll go ahead and quote John Dewan here.

From an interview at THT:

The pitch type and location, and the hit locations are the keys. Recording every pitch type and speed, and the location based on pixels on a computer screen. On batted balls, we’re also down to pixels on a screen to pinpoint the location of the batted ball.
...
We have video scouts. Their job is to review video and make sure that everything is logged properly. When they do that, they have the ability to rewind and make sure that things such as pitch location and batted ball locations are recorded properly. All the work takes place in our office in Pennsylvania.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jun 8, 2008 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

interesting

Still leaves quite a few variables such as the effect and variance of the video equipment, consistency of computer equipment used in the review et cetera. I don’t know if its available on line, but Dewan does a radio interview once a week on WSCR, the noon show I believe, and it is usually focused on stats.

by ol Pete on Jun 8, 2008 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for that

I have not idea how I missed that. In any case it definitely sounds like they don’t have anything being recorded as far as where the fielders are lined up. I wonder how accurate their pitch type/speed/location measurements are. I would love to match that up with my corrected PITCHf/x variables and see how each method measures up.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Jun 8, 2008 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not PBP...

...but leaderboards of pitch type/velocity based on BIS’s data are available at Fangraphs.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Jun 8, 2008 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another draft pick signing

LHP Brandon Ritchie.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jun 8, 2008 11:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

"The Brewers will not suck today I promise"

I am going to hold you to that Sackmann ;)

Its all about the Bullpen this season that is the key.

by WSB Chris on Jun 8, 2008 12:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I knew I should've put in a disclaimer

*by “not suck” today, I mean the Brewers will appear at Coors Field at play a baseball game in such manner that they would probably (though not certainly) defeat the Rockies if WSB Chris were required to pitch six innings for Colorado.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jun 8, 2008 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now that sounds like my Lawyer wife wrote that lol

Can you promise they will not suck in Houston the next three days. It seems you have some Mojo going

Its all about the Bullpen this season that is the key.

by WSB Chris on Jun 8, 2008 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

by dixieflatline on Jun 8, 2008 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe you should put advertising up on that blog of yours

by ol Pete on Jun 8, 2008 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have had offers

But relatively low offers so I am keeping it ad free for now. Google raised the importance rating of my blog to 3 a little while back. I was pretty proud of that.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Jun 8, 2008 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bruce Note

Welcome to the light side of the force Jay. Glad to see a player that gets it.

by Hyatt on Jun 8, 2008 1:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Joey D

what a lead off guy! Nice walk buddy.

by molitorfan on Jun 8, 2008 2:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	44	39	.530	0	Lost 1
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	43	38	.530	0	Won 1
Cincinnati Red Reporter	40	39	.506	2	Won 1
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	39	39	.500	2.5	Lost 1
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	38	41	.481	4	Lost 2
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	37	45	.451	6.5	Lost 2