Is Rich Harden's arm falling off?

by dixieflatline on Jul 11, 2008 12:59 PM CDT Comment 26 comments

There has been some concern about a loss of velocity in the last couple of Harden's starts so after some hiccups with my code here I wanted to take a look with the PITCHf/x data to see if I could spot anything. Here is his fastball wear pattern for the year.

via baseball.bornbybits.com

You can see that there was a serious dip in velocity two starts ago but that seemed to return for his start on Sunday. It looks like his arm angle was wide that day as his horizontal movement really was out of whack as well. This doesn't look like an impending problem to be but with Harden sometimes it is hard to tell.

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awesome. (again)

put up something not-awesome every once in awhile so i can offer constructive criticism…

anyway, the thing that jumps out at me is that huge gap between day 95 and day 130… no, really, the thing that jumps out at me is the return in speed, and horizontal movement and NOT vertical movement.

that has to be a change in release point, doesn’t it?

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by jacob on Jul 11, 2008 1:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I would think that would mean he was lowering his arm angle

But as dixie said in his Marmol article, it’s difficult to throw as hard after lowering your arm angle, so it’s interesting that his velocity not only returned, but actually looks like it exceeded most of his early starts.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 11, 2008 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah.

two starts ago=

average, slightly above average vertical movement.
below average velocity
above average horizontal movement.

that adds up to a lower arm angle, for sure, dixie agrees:

It looks like his arm angle was wide that day as his horizontal movement really was out of whack as well.

the thing that jumps out at me though is the from two starts ago to last start.

below average vertical movement
average velocity
below average horizontal movement

that, looks to me, like he’s brought his arm angle back up over the top but lost both tailing action and ‘rising’ action on his 4 seamer. which sort of equals a drop in velocity being compensated by a higher than normal arm angle.

its like he was in a good slot, then two starts ago, too low, and last start too high without the bump in velocity you’d expect for the loss in movement. where was his last start? dry, thin air?

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by jacob on Jul 11, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

* the thing that jumps out at me though is the from two starts ago to last start.

should read:

the thing that jumps out at me though is the change from two starts ago to last start.

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by jacob on Jul 11, 2008 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

We're talking about the same thing

I’m saying, I thought a lower arm angle produced more horizontal movement. From the Marmol article:

Pitchers have a fine line to walk as far as movement and velocity go. As a pitcher lowers his arm angle on his fastball, more of the backspin he imparts on the ball turns into sidespin. It is that sidespin that moves the ball inward to a similarly handed batter. In Marmol’s case, because he throws nearly sidearm, a big percentage of that spin is sidespin and results in huge horizontal movement.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 11, 2008 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i know.

we’re talking about the same thing, in the start, two starts ago.

but in his last start, i’m actually suggesting his velocity was down…

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by jacob on Jul 11, 2008 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nevermind, I was having a Depends moment regarding reading the graph correctly

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 11, 2008 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah his fastball generally has been straight as an arrow recently

It is crazy because his change and slider are coming so close together my algorithm is calling them one pitch. Can you blame it? Where should the cut line be? There certainly are two pitchers there but where the change ends and the slider starts I have no idea. That slider looks very average though. Honestly, I have no idea how he has been so successful this year. He isn’t using his splitter and everything else looks very ordinary to me.

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by dixieflatline on Jul 11, 2008 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would agree that was an arm angle change and probably not something like his arm falling off

Soon I am going to make one of these plots that will show release point itself but I haven’t gotten around to it.

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by dixieflatline on Jul 11, 2008 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My question

Is a change in release points an indicator of a potential injury – changing release points to lessen shoulder pain? Obviously, there are many reasons that a pitcher might change his release point, but I’m wondering if Beane saw the change in the release point and the lowered velocity and decided the time to trade was now.

by tosabrewfan on Jul 11, 2008 2:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i think beane is a great poker player

and beane just waited out hendry. the time to trade harden, from what i’ve read, seems to coincide with hendry finally agreeing to add gallagher. Hendry not waiting for the deadline is bone-headed in my opinion.

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by jacob on Jul 11, 2008 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

part of gambling is sizing up the odds

Maybe he worried about Harden’s health and took what he viewed as a nice trade while he could still get it.

by ol Pete on Jul 11, 2008 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

simple answer

The graph clearly proves that his arm is about to fall off, but that he shot HGH right before his last start… there is no other reasonable explanation, and the Cubs should be disqualified for the season.

by keephopealive on Jul 11, 2008 2:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

duh

why have i never heard that before? shouldn’t teams be penalized in addition to the players for using PEDs? sounds brilliant to me.

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by jacob on Jul 11, 2008 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

we need to call Bud, right away

by keephopealive on Jul 11, 2008 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

speaking of the cubs

Marquis twirling a 1 hitter (with 2Ks) against a strange lineup of AAA and washed up players, and Cain twirling a one hitter (with 6Ks) against the league’s best offense. similar results, very different performances.

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by jacob on Jul 11, 2008 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can you update this to include yesterdy?

I was at the game yesterday and he was touching the upper 90s a lot.

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"Swung on belted!!!"---Chip

by Hammer on Jul 13, 2008 12:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Well I can but it seems pretty clear that the velocity drop was just a blip on the radar

Also, I am heading out of town for next week so the earliest I would be able to get to it would be next weekend. Lastly, don’t trust those in house radar guns. They are very unreliable though I am sure he was throwing just fine looking at the results.

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by dixieflatline on Jul 13, 2008 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey Crewfans

Hey Crewfans Why are you so worried about the Cubs? You can’t make it to the postseason if you don’t pass the Cardinals up. Also, Im just a little curious since a 3rd place team is putting all of its eggs in the 2008 basket—What is the Brew Crew going to do next year? I mean its just something to think about.

Had to repost, somehow the original didn’t post. Anyways, Im just asking a serious question, I am a peaceful fan here, and can get along with anybody who loves baseball, as we at least have that in common.

by adam316 on Jul 21, 2008 10:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

go to bleed cubbie blue and put brewers in the search window

Why are they so worried?

by ol Pete on Jul 21, 2008 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I deleted your original post.

People here can navigate the site. You don’t need to post the same comment twice.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 21, 2008 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay.

Sorry Jeff.

by adam316 on Jul 21, 2008 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

even though the NL central

...has the top 3 teams in the league, there’s no guarantee that things will stay that way.

There’s a possiblility that the wildcard will come out of the NL East, in that case marking up on the cards for second place will sell ourselves short of the playoffs. If the central struggles out-of-conference, we may very well lose that wildcard edge we currently possess.

So, we have to set our sights on first place in the division, a place currently occupied by the Cubs. Also, even if the WC does come out of the central, playing with awayfield disadvantage for the entire playoffs (wildcard, NLCS, WS) does not seem all that wonderful;) Whereas, if we take 1st in the division, we’ll be dealing with those first two rounds with homefield advantage.

As to sacrificing next year – we’re really not doing that. Sure we gave up some top prospects, but with the possible exception of Gamel being a bench player (assuming Fielder isn’t traded during the offseason), none of the players traded would have been on the big league squad next year. Did we hurt our chances 3 years down the line? Quite possibly. But I guess the club decided it had been living in the “oh, we’ll get it next year” for the last 26 years and decided to go for the now. Plus, next year we won’t have Sheets back, and Gallardo may or may not be fully healthy enough to be an ace. So, with a weakened pitching staff, we don’t have a shot in hell of the WS title next year. Without a big moneyclip we can’t hope to attract (or retain) any big pitching free agents either. In other words, it’s now or “maybe in 5 years.”

3rd place down by 3 from 1st and down by 1 from 2nd is exactly the time you beef up your roster. The cubs have the semi-luxury of choice – they can choose to ride out the season with their current roster and probably still make the playoffs or they can assure themselves it and beef up their playoff roster by leveraging their future. For the Brewers, it’s do or die.

by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 21, 2008 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay,

That makes perfect sense, so basically Brewers fans are putting everything on “this year”, and if it doesn’t happen this year, then it will end up hurting in the long run? I do understand though, I guess, basically when you have your best shot, try to strengthen yourselves even more. Im just surprised that the Brewers decided to go this route with such a strong NL Central, I mean that also diminishes the odds a bit I think.

by adam316 on Jul 21, 2008 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, a simple answer is

Because the Cardinals are only 2 games back, Brewers are 3, and Cubs are currently missing Soriano and Wood. Things could get really tight, and no one has counted the Brewers or the Cardinals out of it.

by adam316 on Jul 21, 2008 10:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Wait, did you just answer yourself?

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Jul 21, 2008 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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