Dave Bush is a man of mystery
Dave Bush has been dealing recently and after checking up on Rich Harden I wanted to see what Bush might be doing differently in his last few starts. So I started by making a wear pattern plot for his fastball and saw something stranger than anything else I have seen since I started looking at the PITCHf/x data. Here is the plot without his start yesterday sadly.
Look at how much that horizontal movement jumps around. That is a huge variation so I checked out his game logs to see is that is correlating to his good/bad starts and saw something I didn't expect. When Bush pitches on the road his fastball has nearly 5 inches less of movement than his home starts. Actually, it isn't a perfect fit, his first start of the year was in Wrigley and three starts ago (on this graph) he was in Atlanta. The curious thing is he pitched well in both those games but basically poorly in all the other road starts. At first, I thought this was a problem with my data corrections so I ran the numbers for Ben Sheets and got this:
Sheets has some ups and downs but nothing like Bush and no real home/road split (again his last start is not shown). Four of Sheets last six starts on this plot were road starts for Ben and all very close together. Also Torres didn't display this when I looked at his sinker a while ago.
So what is going on with Bush? Normally, when you see large changes in horizontal movement that indicates a lower arm angle and diminished velocity but Bush doesn't seem to show that at all. He has been very consistently in the upper 80's all year. Even look at how small the variation in his fastball speed is compared to Sheets or Harden or others. That fastball speed just doesn't change much at all.
So how can his horizontal movement be changing so much and why is it happening? This isn't an artifact of the data, this is real. When he does have the good fastball on the road he pitches well but those starts have been few and far between. Maybe a home/road platoon with Bush and McClung is the answer because I have no idea how you would go about fixing this. The good news is this is something that seems to correlate extremely well to Bush's successful starts and his failures. The Brewers should keep a close eye on the movement on his fastball because you should be able to tell almost right away if he has the goods or might need an early exit.
Edit:
Here is a shot of the home road splits with the road horizontal movement in an aqua color:
Let me know if this makes some more sense.
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That's really interesting
Not to suggest (x=malfeasance), but malfeasance? Maybe it has something to do with being able to scuff the ball at home, or how the mound is constructed, or something.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jul 11, 2008 3:10 PM CDT
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The mound may certainly be an issue
I am glad you brought that up because I know that Bush cares a lot about the mound and the shape of mounds can be different. I wonder if the Miller Park mound is like perfect for him?
by dixieflatline on
Jul 11, 2008 3:45 PM CDT
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Isn't that malfeasances for malfeasances' sake?
If he's the Prince, then I'm the King.
by ryan braun on
Jul 16, 2008 10:30 PM CDT
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humidor?
there is a lot of confusion about the humidor use. the rumors i’ve read seem to indicate that all facilities have the option to use environment controlling somethings on the baseballs. if bush is using dryer balls on the road (giggle) it could affect him more than others, in theory.
here’s a post from MGL.Bring Back The Old Logo!
by jacob on
Jul 11, 2008 3:20 PM CDT
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Yeah that could be the case too.
He might not get the right grip on the dry ball and can’t get the movement. That might make a lot of sense because that could be something that is affecting his movement but not his speed.
by dixieflatline on
Jul 11, 2008 3:49 PM CDT
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clarification
“When Bush pitches on the road his fastball has nearly 5 inches less of movement than his home starts. Actually, it isn’t a perfect fit, his first start of the year was in Wrigley and three starts ago (on this graph) he was in Atlanta. The curious thing is he pitched well in both those games but basically poorly in all the other road starts.”
so…which ones had 5 inches less movement? all road games (on average)? all road games except chicago/atlanta? only chicago/atlanta?
by PagsBrewCrew on
Jul 11, 2008 4:24 PM CDT
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Well I would say that the Chicago and Atlanta starts are pretty close to the home average
And all other road starts are 5 a combined 5 inches less then the combined home starts.
by dixieflatline on
Jul 11, 2008 4:44 PM CDT
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Can you color code the individual data points for home and away?
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jul 11, 2008 6:35 PM CDT
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Sorry I will do that tomorrow
Everything that is -5 to -8 movement is on the road and everything past that is at home with the exception of the cubs and braves games.
by dixieflatline on
Jul 11, 2008 10:10 PM CDT
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Remember the negative horizontal movement means the ball moves in toward a right handed batter
So the more negative the better for a right handed pitcher (on his fastball).
by dixieflatline on
Jul 11, 2008 4:47 PM CDT
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Another thought.
Bush has always pitched better at home than on the road. He said it the other day and so I went and checked.
He is 26-18 at home with a nice 3.70 ERA
He is 13-26 on the road with a bad 5.42 ERA
This year his ERA is 2.49 at home and 6.95 on the road.
However you could also look at his first nine games and his second nine games.
First 9 games (8 starts)
46.2 innings 18BB 24K 10 HR 6.56 ERA
Second 9 games (9 starts)
60 innings 8BB 42K 5HR 2.70 ERA.
6 of the first 9 were on the road
6 of the second 9 were at home
by grant76 on
Jul 11, 2008 9:45 PM CDT
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Hey dixie
You got a link from tango.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jul 11, 2008 10:54 PM CDT
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