Cubs Frightening Roster Situation

Intelligent post from a cardinal fan regarding the dire situation of the future cubs. I have to highlight one comment in particular because it, for me, sums up the strange oedipus complex that many cub fans have.

Supposedly, prospective buyers interested in the bottom-line alone have been scared away by the franchise’s high price. What does that mean? It means the Cubs are going to be sold to a billionaire looking to stroke his already turgid ego.

It's like having an elite payroll isn't enough, and some idiots think that a mark cuban type is going to push the cubs from losers to competitive simply by making an elite payroll more elite.

about 1 year ago jacob 22 comments 0 recs |

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another idiot

here’s another one.

The Cubs, with all of the buying power of the Boston Red Sox, will ALWAYS be at the top of the division under the new ownership. Friends, get used to it, the Cubs are a big market team finally acting like a big market team.
The won’t win every year, but they’ll will always be around just like Boston or New York.

yep, some savior, angel billionaire, is going to swoop in and bump the payroll from 5th to 4th and that will make all the difference in the world…

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 11, 2008 4:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

He must not have checked the AL East standings very recently.

"My thing is that you guys eat meat all day and you can't hit a ball. That's my thing." - P. Fielder

by SRB on Jul 11, 2008 7:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's not payroll, it's management

The reason the Red Sox have been dominant lately is a combination of payroll and good front office decisions (for the most part.) The Sox are using the draft well to get lots of good young players and they have the money to re-sign these players when they hit free agency, as well as re-signing players acquired in trades and the few ones they’ve picked up in free agency. The only recent idiot signing I can think of was the Julio Lugo one, but that seemed to be out of desperation and lack of ready internal shortstop candidates. (It remains to be seen if Daisuke Matsuzaka will pan out or not.)

The Yankees are another matter. It was only recently that they started developing a decent farm system.

by morineko on Jul 11, 2008 6:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I hate to defend Cubs fans...

... but isn’t it possible that some of these comments come from a broader base of experience than just the last couple of years when the Cubs’ payroll entered the elite range? It wasn’t all that long ago (‘01 and ‘02, for example) when the Cubs payroll was right around league average despite the large market, the benefit of a superstation for 20 years, and a large national following. Put in that context the comments make a bit more sense, since they simply suggest that the elite payroll of the last two years will continue into the future if they get a deep pocket owner willing to keep them there.

That of course doesn’t make the comment that the Cubs will be on top of the division every year any smarter since it’s quality of the management team and the farm system it produces that are the key to consistent success at the major league level. The resources they have access to certainly does give them a margin for error the rest of the division lacks. The payroll situation described in the Card fan’s post would probably destroy the Brewers chances for comptetiveness for a decade as they tried to clean up the aging talent and debt it created whereas the Cubs might only lose a a few years of competitive baseball at most.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 12, 2008 9:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

largest impact of a new owner

would be a new front office, not the payroll for players

in other words, I agree with you.

by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 12, 2008 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm

not so sure that post was intelligent at all. The Cubs are going to lose 90-100 games every year from 2010-2015? only a real homer would buy that line. I dont agree that the Cubs are going to dominate simply based on payroll, they have to start drafting better but whoever buys the team is going to be loaded. And the I doubt the MLB Czar’s are going to allow a pinny pincher owner to buy one of the prize franchises in the league. Like it or not the Cubs are big buisness for baseball and my bet would be the team will indeed have very deep pockets after this sale is completed.

by ACB on Jul 12, 2008 11:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

“I doubt the MLB Czar’s are going to allow a pinny pincher owner to buy one of the prize franchises in the league.”

Why? The Cubs are going to sell a lot of merchandise and raise a bunch of revenue whether they lose 100 or win 100.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jul 12, 2008 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

reasons

1. This isnt the mid 90’s anymore. After 2003 Cubs fans actually started to give a shit and wanted to see a huge market team that made tons of $ start spending and winning. In 06 when things fell to shit people were throwing trash on the field and the Trib went out and spent 300 $ right away. You dont look a gift horse in the mouth and owning the Cubs has to be some of the easiest $ ever. If you put out a team that can compete you are going to get paid so why risk alienating fans by acting like the Marlins owners?

2. Who ever buys this team is going to be loaded! Wrigley, WGN, Comcast, the team itself is going to break the record for a franchise price tag, so its going to be somebody that can afford to spend.

3. Baseball is healthier when the Cubs are good. Thats just a fact, Selig isnt going to let somebody take over this franchise that isnt going to take care of it.

by ACB on Jul 12, 2008 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'll check

this thread out later because its interesting but for now im going to see what this Rich Harden guy is all abuot

by ACB on Jul 12, 2008 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The thing is

1. Whether they win or lose and the hardcore fans get pissed off and alienated, there’s still going to be a bunch of people out there buying Cubs merchandise/tickets/whatever. If owning the Cubs really is easy money, then MLB’s just as likely to enjoy the cash rolling in and having the Chicago owner put a mediocre product on the field while the revenue is shared around the league. As you say, putting out a team that competes will get you paid, but so will putting out a team that doesn’t. As an aside, what’s wrong with the Marlins’ method? Winning two championships doesn’t seem like a bad idea.

2. So what if they’re loaded? Just because an owner has a lot of money doesn’t mean he’ll spend it on the team. David Glass is just one example of that. It’s possible a new owner will dump money into the team beyond the huge amount he and his group paid for the franchise, but I wouldn’t assume it’ll happen.

3. It’s a fact baseball is healthier because the Cubs are good? It’s not that the Red Sox are good, competitive races year in and year out, the wild card, interleague play, home run binges, new ballparks, an influx of foreign stars, or anything else that’s happened in baseball over the past decade? It’s because the Cubs are a good team? I have a hard time believing the Cubs not being a good team would be overly hazardous to baseball’s health.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jul 12, 2008 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

so

what do you expect in terms of future payroll for the cubs? the new owner to slash payroll to say brewer level or keep it the same or raise it?

by ACB on Jul 12, 2008 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It'll raise automatically

All those back-loaded deals will do that, making it harder to patch up holes that appear on the team.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jul 12, 2008 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

all i would

like to see is the cubs payroll be right under the luxury tax because thats where it should be. and whoever buys the team needs to invest in our scouting department because the trib never did

by ACB on Jul 12, 2008 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd say baseball has done pretty well without the Cubs being successful.

(I’ll resist making the obvious follow-up joke.)

And as for #2…yeah, Carl Pohlad says hi, too. It’s not just a binary thing where A = owner keeps pumping money into the team ad inifinitum, and B = Florida Marlins.

by Zeyes on Jul 12, 2008 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

alright

everyone has their own opinion i guess we will just wait and see what happens

by ACB on Jul 12, 2008 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The funniest thing about the Brewers

is that you people actually think you have a chance.

This season is that last that you have of winning, after Sheets and Sabathia leave the Brewers go back to second-division status watching their betters play meaningful baseball.

Attention Brewer fans: Your team sucks. As of last night, the Brewers ranked 6th in the NL in run differential. You aren’t going to the playoffs, you’ll be lucky to fend off the Reds for 4th place.

Enjoy your irrelevance. Oh yeah, nice trade for Sabathia. Last season the Cub MVP was Ned Yost; he was made a strong bid at repeating, but Doug Melvin is starting to look pretty hard to beat. Sabathia trade = Linebrink trade = depleted system = no playoffs.

The Reds will win the NL Central before Milwaukee does, but that won’t be for a couple years. Through 2009, the Cubs will be the dominant team in the NL Central (and NL in general). It’s hard to project past then, but I don’t doubt the Cub payroll will be north of 175 million by 2011. Good luck competing with that.

Maybe you could petition old Bud to get you into the AL Central?

by Santos Sorrow on Jul 12, 2008 12:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Depleted system, irrelevance?

Santo’s real sorrow must be having idiots who blather on without knowing what they’re talking about as fans of his team.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jul 12, 2008 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

following his logic

Since a depleted system equals no playoffs and the Brewers system is loaded, we’ve got playoffs for years.

I like the attitude that they will simply outspend anyone to compete. Sounds like something to really enjoy. Go Chicago Yankees!

by ol Pete on Jul 12, 2008 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

I don’t know if winning by outspending everyone (the Yankees/Red Sox/etc. method) is any better or worse than winning by employing young, cheap players you sell off following the season for young, cheap players that will help you win a half dozen years down the line (the Florida method). Either way, it’s still winning.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jul 12, 2008 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So much for the possibility of intelligent conversation.

And how surprising that it’s the same Cubs fans who reacted so childishly to the original post on the Cardinals site. I wonder what it’s like to be forced to wander the web in terror that someone, somewhere might not be convinced that the Cubs are on the verge of dominating their division for years to come. The horror…. the horror..

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 12, 2008 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They didn’t want “that douche” Jacob to “get away with it.”

by ol Pete on Jul 12, 2008 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great research / Horrible analysis

I’m impressed that a fan went through all the effort to collect and organize this data about an opposing team. The numbers are a great resource that really lays out the parameters that the Cubs will be operating with for the next few years. Kudos for that good work.

However, his final conclusion that the Cubs will be losing 90-100 games each year from 2010-2015 makes no sense. Almost all of the backloaded contracts that the author cited for holding back the Cubs will be off the books well before 2015.

Personally, I see 2010 as a potentially very bad season for the Cubs, because Lilly and Lee are sharp declines waiting to happen, but I’d be shocked if they weren’t at least somewhat respectable for the other years in that interval unless the Cubs get overly sentimental on resigning players or are bought by a penny-pincher. The Cubs are a huge-market team and huge-market teams don’t hover at or below 72 wins for six straight seasons unless the ownership pretends that they aren’t a huge-market team (which I doubt will happen given the current candidates).

by Ikcelaks on Jul 13, 2008 11:17 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	91	71	.561	0	Lost 6
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	83	78	.515	7.5	Lost 1
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	80	82	.493	11	Won 3
Cincinnati Red Reporter	78	84	.481	13	Won 2
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	74	88	.456	17	Lost 3
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	62	99	.385	28.5	Lost 2