Solving Second Base
With CC Sabathia in the fold, the Brewers have made one huge move to improve the team. There are few things you can do that make more impact than replacing your 5th starter with an ace.
Beyond that, it's not entirely clear what else Doug Melvin could do to improve the Brewers' playoff chances. Some of us would like to see a bullpen addition or two. I'm skeptical, largely because we're unlikely to get anyone much better than Riske or Gagne. If such a player became available, he'd be very expensive. Think Linebrink. I wouldn't mind a minor move, but I don't think we can count on increasing the win total via new relievers.
That leaves the offense. A quick glance at sOPS+ by position tells the story. The Crew is average or better at every position except for catcher and second base. We can rule out an improvement at catcher, both because Kendall has been so good defensively, and because a substantial offensive improvement would be next to impossible to come by. Just about every good catcher plays on a contender.
In fact, the sheer number of contenders makes it tough to envision many deals getting done. I suppose another few teams may decide they're out of it before July 31, but as is, I only count 11 or 12 teams that should throw in the towel, and I'm including clubs like the Rockies and Blue Jays, whose GMs may not agree with me.
So. That leaves us with about a dozen teams, each of which have a second baseman who may or may not be worth acquiring.
To set some benchmarks: Rickie is currently OPSing 687, while team second basemen are averaging 688--Counsell is bringing up the OBP and dragging down the SLG. The average second baseman in the NL this year OPS's 743, while the average lead-off guy OPS's 745. Roughly speaking, the difference between Rickie production and average production for the rest of year is worth about one win.
One more consideration. In his career, Weeks has OPS'd about 100 points higher against lefties. That's unsurprising, so I'm comfortable expecting that to continue. With that in mind, a lefty replacement with a marked platoon split would have the potential to improve the team more than a righty replacement who would play second every day.
Let's look at some options:
- Brian Roberts, Orioles. If we're going to really go for it, this is the guy. Unless the Rangers have an immediate slump and offer up Ian Kinsler (fat chance!), Roberts is the best player available at the position, by far. He's a switch hitter, but over his career he's had typical lefty platoon splits--about 100 points higher vRHP. The splits are even this year, but I'll take the 4000 PA sample, thank you very much. If he and Rickie have second halves just like their first halves, the difference is a staggering three wins--and that's just at the plate. Even using more conservative estimates, acquiring Roberts would probably have as big of an impact on the win total as picking up CC.
- Ray Durham, Giants. His name has already come up in trade rumors, and for obvious reasons. Unlike the Orioles, Rockies, and plenty of others, San Fran realizes they are out of it, and there's certainly no reason to keep Durham around to help them lose. He might be one of the few available players who wouldn't be a defensive upgrade on Weeks, but his bat is solid (800 OPS so far this year) and he's another switch hitter. His splits are a bit weird--this year he's much better against righties, but in 05-07 he was stronger vLHP. Durham wouldn't have near the impact that Roberts would, but presumably, he'd come much cheaper.
- Mark Grudzielanek, Royals. This Wisconsin-native All-Grit Team starter is having his second straight solid season at the plate, OPSing 770. I was about to write it off to an unsustainably high BABIP of .343 this year, but he's consistently in the 330 range. Grudz is a righty, meaning that we wouldn't get any platoon advantage pairing him with Rickie, but his glove may well make him a more valuable potential acquisition than Durham. I can't imagine why the Royals would hold on to him if we offered any kind of useful piece.
- Jose Lopez, Mariners. This list goes downhill fast. Some people still think of him as good because of a solid first half in 2006. As is, he's not much better at the plate than Rickie (729 OPS) and his glove is suspect. The Mariners should be in fire sale mode, but Lopez is under control for another couple years and there isn't an obvious replacement nipping at his heels. He wouldn't be cheap, and he wouldn't be good. Pass. (Also, did you know the Mariners payroll this year is over 115MM? Wow.)
- Mark Ellis, A's. Ellis wouldn't be much of an improvement at the plate--238/332/384 is right in line with what Rickie would do with better BABIP luck--but he is considered one of the best defensive second sackers in baseball. He'll be a free-agent after the season, so unless the A's go on a tear starting this weekend, Billy Beane should make him available. I don't know what kind of package Beane would require, but Ellis's defense probably makes him worth about as much as Durham or Grudz. My gut says that Grudz would come cheaper.
There will surely be other guys out there--Felipe Lopez comes to mind, as does Mark Loretta--but the five listed above are the only ones who have any shot at being a clear win over Rickie. I don't think Melvin will mortgage the future to the extent he'd need to in order to grab Roberts, but with the trio of Durham, Grudz, and Ellis, it might be something of a buyer's market, in which case we could improve the team by giving up some pieces we wouldn't miss.
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26 comments
Comments
A nice overview.
I’m still not in favor of a change, but thank you for doing all the legwork to display the options.
Derek Jeter is day to day after being hit by a pitch and being gorilla press slammed by a Bizarro Ray.
by KLSnow on Jul 16, 2008 6:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Roberts
Hey, today’s Baltimore Sun has a discussion of O’s trade possibilities. The comments about Roberts jibe with what I’ve read poking around www.orioleshangout.com and elsewhere.
Why he won’t be traded: One of O’s best and most popular players; Andy MacPhail’s asking price will be extreme; favorite of owner Peter Angelos.
After the CC trade McCalvy related a discussion with Melvin in a radio interview. He asked about Roberts and Melvin’s response was that he wasn’t available. I take that to mean that the price was unrealistically high.
If no trades for 2B occur, I’d like to see more days with Dillon and Counsell sprinkled in and Rickie forced to try bunting for a base hit once in a while.
by ol Pete on Jul 16, 2008 6:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
what was the trade rumor between the Cubs and Orioles that went on forever before being squashed by Angelos?
by Sky Kalkman on Jul 17, 2008 6:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Roberts was rumored to go to the Cubs for a long, long time. The exact players was never revealed as far as I know and I never heard anything about Angelos squashing the story. The rumored players was something like what they ended up giving for Harden.
by ol Pete on Jul 17, 2008 8:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Glancing at the sOPS+, it looks like we need to upgrade the DH position or the World Series away games are going to be tough. OPS+ of 5!!! Maybe Barry Bonds….
Seriously, though, I’d probably stick with Rickie… but if a change was to be made, I could see a deal with Kansas City involving Grudz and maybe Ron Mahay. The Brewers could offer Cole Gillespie and something else- or maybe even Rickie, if something else was involved. KC also has this other good pitcher I heard about if DM really wants to do something special.
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
by Jordan M on Jul 16, 2008 6:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Weeks has had an OPS of .767 OPS in ‘06 and .804 OPS last year. Why is it assumed that he is going to OPS .687 the rest of the year? He past history suggest and current low BABIP suggest that he’ll be at least in the .770 range, with potential to have great months (like August/September last year) the second half of the year.
I think the best thing the Brewers should do is continue to play Weeks and not sit him, or make a trade for another 2B. His past two years suggest he’ll put up equal numbers…with potential to do much more than the other options you have listed above (besides Roberts).
You could have written a similar article for JJ Hardy at the end of May.
by Supertramp on Jul 16, 2008 6:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
his current low BABIP
is in part due to the number of popups he hits.
I agree that Weeks will probably do better than .687, but even at .770, he probably isn’t as good of a player for the next 2.5 months as Grudz, who will probably provide 750+ in addition to above-average defense.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 16, 2008 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What will Weeks do the rest of the season?
Using Sal Baxamusa’s Marcel utility, he’s projected to hit .247/.352/.409 over the balance of 2008, finishing with a line of .231/.335/.386
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 16, 2008 6:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for using the Marce utility.
This is exactly the sort of discussion it was meant to enhance.
By way of contrast, Marcel sees Ray Durham hitting .259/.335/.412 for the rest of the year – not much of an upgrade, if it all, over Weeks. Grudz is at .285/.332/.400, Ellis is at .262/.335/.413.
Unless there’s some scouting reason that ought to depress our expectations of Weeks, the percentage play for the Brew Crew would be to stick with Rickie – except, of course, in the case of Mark Ellis who represents a massive defensive upgrade. But I’ll give you word of advice from this A’s fan: keep your grubby Brewer hands off Mark Ellis! He’s ours!
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
by salb918 on Jul 16, 2008 8:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, thanks for popping in
I’m putting up an article tomorrow with the results of applying your Marcel tool to the entire roster, to see what might reasonably be expected of the team in the second half.
As an aside, how are you enjoying your Cubs bounty?
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 16, 2008 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ask me next April.
Children, until we have taught them better, will be perfectly happy with a seasonal round of games in which conkers succeeds hopscotch.
by salb918 on Jul 16, 2008 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ellis' Marcel line also doesn't include the A's park factor
And if you’re comparing him to Weeks and other NL hitters, you need to bump him up a bit more.
Ellis is by far the best non-Roberts option, a slighty better hitter than both Weeks and Grudz. he’s probably +5 runs on offense in the NL, and then +20 in the field. Weeks is just about average and, what, -10 in the field? UZR has him more in the -15 to -20 range from 2005 through 2007, but I hear he’s improved a bit. What do you fans think? Going with -10 runs, that makes Ellis 35 more runs valuable over a full season, or about 1.5 wins better over the rest of 2008.
What’s that worth to the Brewers? What would you give up for that? What’s Rickie Weeks’ contract situation?
by Sky Kalkman on Jul 17, 2008 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The conventional wisdom is probably that Rickie is now average defensively, although I wouldn’t be surprised if he was slightly above.
My highly uninformed guess is that the team wouldn’t make a change unless there was a significant upgrade – chemistry and the seemingly endless hope that he plays more to his ability which he does sometimes and which is quite good and all that jazz.
by ol Pete on Jul 17, 2008 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Contract status of the aforementioned players
Roberts will make $8M in 2009, after which he’ll be a free agent. He has a limited no-trade clause. The Brewers would be responsible for paying him approximately $2.1M for the rest of this year.
Durham will be a free agent after this year, and the Brewers would be on the hook for roughly $2.5M this year.
Grudz is in the same boat as Durham, FA after this year, but the Brewers would owe him only $1.5M.
Lopez is signed for $167K for the balance of this year, $1.6M in 2009, and $2.3M in 2010, with a $4.5M team option/$250K buyout in 2011.
Ellis, like Durham and Grudz, is only signed through 2008, and would be owed $1.67M by the Brewers.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 16, 2008 6:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I figure this is worth mention, with regard the possibility of trading for Roberts
You can take this investment banker’s promise to the bank, too. “If there’s something to do, we’ll do it,’’ Attanasio says. “We’re going for it.’‘
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 16, 2008 6:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
that would be cool if we got Grudzielanek...
cause earlier this year in spring training i asked him if he ever thought he would play for the brewers.. he smiled; like that would be pretty cool to play for the brewers and replied, “probably not.”
that was a fun day…
http://www.flickr.com/search/?q=royals&w=85741098%40N00
go get em' seth!
by Jamie in LA on Jul 16, 2008 7:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I was impressed with what I saw of Roberts
When the O’s came to Miller Park seeing him in person helped me understand what all the fuss was about.
I will get to see him again in about 2 weeks in Yankee stadium if has not been traded by then I am actually looking forward to that.
Its all about the Bullpen this season that is the key.
by WSB Chris on Jul 16, 2008 7:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What is the cost, though?
What’s the cost to pick up these guys? I understand we’re overloaded with talent, but at some point, we have to look to the future and realize that we can’t be selling off all our parts. Especially with a second baseman, where we have a guy who CAN be hot at some times and doesn’t necessarily require an upgrade (I believe he’s an above-average defender, too). If it involves selling off more players off of AA Huntsville, then I’m not alright with it.
Ray Durham would be nice to have, but then again, he’s Rickie Weeks + a little more + a few more years. I mean, it’d be nice to have him, but I would not want to give up a ton of talent. I would rather stick with the guys we have and hope instead to land some diamond in the rough Shouse-type guy. Which will never happen, but hey, I can dream, right?
If he's the Prince, then I'm the King.
by ryan braun on Jul 16, 2008 11:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's too bad...
We can’t pull one of these Perenial All-Star for Hall, Weeks, and Mota deals that the raving lunatics calling into talk radio are always suggesting.
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com
by No Huddle Offense on Jul 16, 2008 11:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
and Turnbow and Gagne
and a PTBNL, usually
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
by Jordan M on Jul 17, 2008 9:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not worth it
The odds are pretty good that Weeks reverts back to his established level, which means that virtually none of these guys are any kind of real upgrade (and that isn’t considering the fact that Weeks could go crazy like he seems to do about once per year for about a month).
When the numbers say that dumping a 5th starter for Sabathia only nets you about 2 wins, I don’t know why you would deal away anything to go from Weeks to Grudzielanek ()for instance).
It just doesn’t make sense. At worst, you miss out on “hot Rickie”. At best, your improvement is very very small.
I think the move we are most likely to see is bench help…..lefty stick with some sock would be nice….maybe Ibanez or someone like that?
by badgermaniac on Jul 17, 2008 1:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i outlined my estimate above, but assuming Weeks is still a weak fielder, Ellis actually is a significant upgrade.
Grudz and Durham, no way.
by Sky Kalkman on Jul 17, 2008 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't see it
Ellis is a guy that has been a .240 hitter with a .330 OBP guy for about three years now. He isn’t a real plus type player with the bat.
I think they are about a wash offensively if Weeks just reverts to what we expect from him (again, based on past performance, not necessarily “potential”).
Defensively, Ellis is clearly better, but I don’t know that a game improvement on defense is worth mortgaging another prospect (or Weeks’ future, which I am still somewhat optimistic about).
by badgermaniac on Jul 18, 2008 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again, the Brewers are in a sort of "sweet spot" where every win added is incredibly valuable
Also, Oakland’s three-year park factor is only 93, so it significantly suppresses offense. Rickie’s hitting .217/.320/.367, which is an OPS+ of 81, while Ellis’ superficially similar line of .238/.332/.384 yields an OPS+ of 99.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 18, 2008 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand that
I just don’t think the 81 is an accurate representation of Weeks.
His OPS+ was 108 last year, and I think it is more likely that he is closer to that figure than 81 the rest of the year.
To me, it comes down to whether you think last year’s Rickie is more likely or this year’s Rickie is more likely.
by badgermaniac on Jul 19, 2008 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
in my example, i used Rickie's Marcel projection, which is much closer to his 2007 line than his 2008 line
And I was nice in his fielding projection, based on a perceived increase in fielding ability. Colin’s projection has him at -16 runs over a full season.
And yes, once you account for ballpark and league, Ellis is a better hitter by about half a win over a full season (which isn’t really much). But if you use Ellis’ +20 fielding projection and Weeks’ -16 fielding projection, that makes Ellis FORTY runs better total over a full season, or 1.5 to 2.0 wins over half a season. Again, that’s almost as much as you guys can expect from the Sabathia trade.
by Sky Kalkman on Jul 19, 2008 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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