Projecting the Second Half

Sal Baxamusa at the Hardball Times recently published a very useful tool: downloadable Excel spreadsheets that produce Marcel projections for players. Marcels are basically weighted averages and are surprisingly competitive with advanced projection systems like PECOTA or ZiPS. For our purposes--predicting the most likely immediate future performance to evaluate, for instance, whether we should get a new second baseman--Marcel will do just fine. So, let's see what we've got:

Jason Kendall
Period AVG OBP SLG
Current .258 .339 .333
Balance .259 .330 .329
Total .258 .334 .331

Prince Fielder
Period AVG OBP SLG
Current .270 .357 .488
Balance .282 .374 .531
Total .275 .364 .507

Rickie Weeks
Period AVG OBP SLG
Current .217 .320 .367
Balance .247 .357 .409
Total .231 .335 .386

Bill Hall
Period AVG OBP SLG
Current .234 .294 .431
Balance .260 .326 .465
Total .246 .308 .446

Russell Branyan
Period AVG OBP SLG
Current .245 .331 .604
Balance .236 .332 .469
Total .239 .332 .515

J.J. Hardy
Period AVG OBP SLG
Current .283 .352 .476
Balance .273 .335 .448
Total .279 .343 .463

Ryan Braun
Period AVG OBP SLG
Current .286 .324 .549
Balance .303 .354 .567
Total .293 .337 .556

Mike Cameron
Period AVG OBP SLG
Current .231 .320 .481
Balance .246 .329 .443
Total .240 .325 .461

Gabe Kapler
Period AVG OBP SLG
Current .315 .352 .517
Balance .272 .332 .425
Total .294 .341 .471

Corey Hart
Period AVG OBP SLG
Current .289 .327 .504
Balance .285 .340 .496
Total .287 .331 .501

Ben Sheets
Period ERA IP H K BB WHIP
Current 2.85 123 109 108 28 1.11
Balance 3.47 87 81 71 22 1.18
Total 3.11 210 190 179 50 1.14

CC Sabathia
Period ERA IP H K BB WHIP
Current 3.67 137.3 130 137 40 124
Balance 3.21 98 94 86 25 1.22
Total 3.48 235 224 223 65 1.23

Jeff Suppan
Period ERA IP H K BB WHIP
Current 4.71 101.3 118 55 44 1.60
Balance 4.44 72 82 42 27 1.52
Total 4.60 173 200 97 71 1.57

Manny Parra
Period ERA IP H K BB WHIP
Current 3.78 100 99 78 50 1.49
Balance 3.98 71 70 57 31 1.42
Total 3.86 171 169 135 81 1.46

Dave Bush
Period ERA IP H K BB WHIP
Current 4.39 106.7 97 66 26 1.15
Balance 4.19 76 76 52 19 1.25
Total 4.30 182 173 118 45 1.19

Son of Clung
Period ERA IP H K BB WHIP
Current 4.16 75.7 66 64 36 1.35
Balance 4.53 54 51 40 24 1.40
Total 4.32 129 117 104 60 1.37
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