Tuesday's Frosty Mug
by KLSnow on Jul 22, 2008 8:28 AM CDT
71 comments
As usual, it's a slow Tuesday, but let's get right to it.
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
Easily the best work of the day: If you haven't checked it out yet, go check out Dixieflatline's Hardball Times piece on the Huntsville Stars. I find it unlikely I'll be making a spontaneous trip to Alabama in the minor league season's final month, so this is likely as close as I'll get to seeing Alcides Escobar, Angel Salome, Mat Gamel and Cole Gillespie this season.
Should the trading deadline be moved back to the middle of August? Dugout Central uses the Durham trade to make a case for it.
The Brewers had the third best record in the National League, swept their first series after the All-Star Break, added CC Sabathia and Ray Durham, and they're still only 15th in the "Whisnant rankings," behind the Orioles, Indians, Twins and Blue Jays, among others. I think his "objective ranking" system needs a little work.
After inspecting the lineup, I'm not sure this team would win many games, but there are 2 current and a former Brewer on In-Between Hops' "Two initials for a first name" team.
On injuries:
Jorge Posada is headed back to the DL and considering shoulder surgery that could cause him to miss part of next season.
Kerry Wood's saga with blisters continues. There's been talk for days he might go on the DL...can anyone tell me if he actually went?
Kerry Wood's blister problems aren't the only thing the Cubs aren't disclosing lately: They're also in hot water over reported violations involving the draft.
It's a sad day for everyone who's interested in the game's history today, as we mourn the passing of Jerome Holtzman, a Hall of Fame reporter, the inventor of the save rule, and long-time MLB official historian. He was 81.
It's the time of year when contending ball clubs look to strengthen their roster by making trades and picking up players who can help them down the stretch. Well, usually it's just contending ball clubs, but this year it includes the Astros, who are talking to the Padres about Randy Wolf.
The Astros are more likely to be Nude on the Moon than playing playoff baseball in 2008.
Drink up.
0 recs |
71 comments
Email
Print
Comments
And a quick check of the BP playoff odds report
Shows the crew at 63% second most likely to make the playoffs in the NL. That is weird but not weird.
by dixieflatline on Jul 22, 2008 9:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Last year we had what.. a 80% shot going into the break? BP Playoff odds made me sad faced last year.
by SgtClueLs on Jul 22, 2008 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
At one point i remember it being in the 90% I thought
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
by Kyguy922 on Jul 22, 2008 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
best about that...
the third-order WP is based on performance so far…which mostly doesn’t include CC. So as long as the Cards don’t do much to improve themselves, our odds are probably a little better than that. Also nice to see the Cubs down to 85% ... I think they were well over 95% not too long ago.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 22, 2008 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That can't be true
Joe Sheehan says so.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
great Stars article... thanks!
go get em' seth!
by Jamie in LA on Jul 22, 2008 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey no problem
by dixieflatline on Jul 22, 2008 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Weren't you leaving?
If there is no one worth having a conversation with here, why come here?
by Getting Yosted on Jul 22, 2008 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
attack the message, not the messenger. this is the internets.
Bring Back The Old Logo!
by jacob on Jul 22, 2008 10:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
we intend for our team to do that a few more times before the season runs its course.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 22, 2008 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wood DL
Wood hasn’t gone on the DL. At this point, it doesn’t matter too much—if he did go, I think it could be backdated so that he’d be eligible to return this weekend.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 22, 2008 10:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The Cubs
are purposely keeping him off the DL because they should be able to use him on Thursday. He saw a skin\hand specialist that gave him some cream that should be able to heal the blister by tomorrow.
by adam316 on Jul 22, 2008 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and Soriano will most likely start tomorrow.
If you were wondering.
by adam316 on Jul 22, 2008 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let me try again..
Who is getting sent down..
by SgtClueLs on Jul 22, 2008 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did he also get the Clear in addition to the Cream?
(I kid.)
by Zeyes on Jul 22, 2008 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haha, that's just what Kerry Wood needs
Even crappier connective tissue.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Brewers/Cubs starting pitching matchups:
The Cubs should stay on rotation through this next 20 game stretch, so if Milwaukee does the same through next week, the pitching match-ups for the four-game series in Milwaukee starting Monday should be Ted Lilly vs. CC Sabathia, Carlos Zambrano vs. Ben Sheets, Ryan Dempster vs. Manny Parra, and Rich Harden vs. Seth McClung.
by adam316 on Jul 22, 2008 10:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Disappointing
No mention of the JS game blog telling all its readers last night’s game is tied going into the 10th? I guess he just got so busy going to talk to major league players he forgot to update the post.
Turning to a generally competent news source, Ned Yost talks about who will go down to make room for Suppan:
“You never know what can happen tonight. You never know what’s going to happen,” Yost said Monday. “Somebody could wake up tomorrow and be sick. Somebody could fall down the stairs and break their ankle. We’ll wait.”
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Jul 22, 2008 10:51 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Yost sends Mota out to pick up some deer meat.
Coffee is for closers
by drezdn on Jul 22, 2008 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now that’s a Yosty comment. I’d look out for greased stairs outside my condo if I was a player.
by SgtClueLs on Jul 22, 2008 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh, my!
....someone send Ned a horse’s head.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 22, 2008 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fun fact
Though it might seem from time to time the Brewers struggle against opposing teams’ bullpens, today’s Elias Says column notes:
Milwaukee scored three runs in the 10th inning to beat the Cardinals, 6-3. It was the Brewers’ major league-high 17th victory this season in which they scored the winning run in their final turn at bat. Milwaukee had only 14 last-at-bat wins last season.
I guess a potent offense and a shaky bullpen blowing saves will do that.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Jul 22, 2008 10:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I guess a potent offense and a shaky bullpen blowing saves will do that.
That would match the other depressing statistic from last year, which I can’t remember exactly. I think it was losses (rather than saves) after leading by three after 6 or 7 innings.
by ol Pete on Jul 22, 2008 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jay Gibbons
Apparently, the Brewers are expected to sign Gibbons to a minor league deal in the coming days.
When we traded for CC and now Durham Melvin kept talking about “Going for it.” At first I didn’t believe him, but if this signing is correct, I’m all aboard the “Going for it” train. ;)
by brewfan2 on Jul 22, 2008 11:19 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
That's weird
It wasn’t long ago that Gibbons was down to sending personal letters to every team begging them to sign him.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kind of an odd place for him to land.
Obviously he’d be pretty far down on the depth chart anywhere, but I’d imagine he’d be behind both Nix and Katin as “guys with quad-A power but no hope of hitting .240 in the big leagues.”
Turning to places he logically could’ve landed—I think one of the unheralded stories of the year is Omar Minaya’s willingness to play extremely crappy hitters in left field. On the season, Mets LFs are at 244/298/325. Even with a bunch of small samples, Damion Easley is the only one of the Mets 11 left fielders with an OPS at the position over 760. And with the exception of Endy Chavez, who’s playing mostly in right, none of those guys are even good defenders.
Of course, Gibbons wasn’t the only free agent outfielder available with a checkered past…
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 22, 2008 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
62 sOPS+, wow
Check out the Braves, too:
ATL RF: .228/.283/.363, 64 sOPS+. Primary offender: Jeff Francoeur (.234/.291/.373 in 399 PAs)
ATL LF: .244/.314/.350, 72 sOPS+. Primary offenders: Gregor Blanco (.214/.343/.239 in 143 PAs) & Matt Diaz (.242/.264/.306 in 129 PAs)
Other gaping holes of suck on teams that might jockey with the Brewers for the playoffs:
STL SS: .241/.298/.292, 69 sOPS+. Primary offender: Cesar Izturis (.229/.300/.291 in 251 PAs)
PHI RF: .251/.314/.377, 76 sOPS+. Primary offender: Geoff Jenkins (.250/.303/.386 in 241 PAs).
FLO C: .224/.283/.313, 67 sOPS+. Primary offenders: Mr. Misty May (.240/.309/.311 in 202 PAs) & Mike Rabelo (.206/.261/.299 in 120 PAs).
The Cubs’ worst sOPS+ is 105 from RF.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
what makes ATL & NYM left field so bad...
is that there’s an obvious hole to be filled.
For the right fielders-Francouer and Jenkins-at least somebody thought, “hey, this is a guy who has the capability to be an average or better player” ... and they give you good defense. But once Alou went down, the Mets knew they needed a solution. Diaz should be playing better, but he needs a platoon partner, and I advocated them signing Bonds before the season started for that very reason.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 22, 2008 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm surprised that a ~600 OPS at catcher is just a 67 sOPS+
Is catcher offense up in the NL or is there some weird park adjustment going on there?
by Zeyes on Jul 22, 2008 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
never mind...
I worked out the numbers with a .700 OPS (which I’m guessing is where catchers are overall), and .600 indeed comes out as around 70 OPS+. I keep forgetting that the floor is -100, not 0…
by Zeyes on Jul 22, 2008 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
With the playoff odds skyrocketing
It is now time to obsess over playoff roster construction. Gamel has to be added to the 40 man roster by August 31st to be eligible for the playoff roster, so the Moustache needs put Cappy on the 60 day DL pretty soon.
But more importantly is how many pitchers do you carry? I know Ned loves him some relievers, but with travel days and the starting rotation going to 4 pitchers they should be able to get down to 11 pitchers at most. Sheets, CC, Parra, Torres, Villy, Shouse, Suppan, Bush and McClung are locks in descending order of lockdom IMO. So that leaves one spot for Gagne, Mota and Stetter assuming that YoGa isn’t ready to go. Who do you have as your last bullpen arm? Or just go with 10 because Ned can’t use any of the last three effectively and if they need to be used the Crew are gonna lose anyway so what difference does it make?
And if YoGa, CC and Parra are three of our four starting pitchers does it make sense to go back to hitting the pitcher 8th? Not out of any fancy lineup construction stats analysis, but because they are all better hitters than Kendall.
by Getting Yosted on Jul 22, 2008 1:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Gamel/playoff roster
Gamel would have to be on the 25-man roster to be playoff-eligible, but there’s also the K-Rod loophole: any player in the organization who plays the same position as a player on the DL as of 8/31 can replace that player on the playoff roster.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought that you were able to construct your 25 man playoff roster based from your 40 man roster as of August 31st. Jesus, we’re really screwed.
by Getting Yosted on Jul 22, 2008 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You make it sound as though other playoff teams are facing the same issues...
by Zeyes on Jul 22, 2008 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was excited to get both Mota and Gagne off the playoff roster
If they aren’t there, they be used as the Eighth Inning Guy™. I’m sure there are other managers who consistently use their fourth and fifth best bullpen pitchers in the highest leverage possible, but I doubt they will be making playoff appearances this year.
by Getting Yosted on Jul 22, 2008 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The same position rule at the start of a series isn't around anymore
If the DL’d player is still hurt come playoff time, a player at any position can replace him (Gamel for Capuano would work). It’s only players who are hurt during a series that have to be replaced by someone playing the same position (if a reliever went down in Game 2, only a pitcher could replace him). link
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Jul 22, 2008 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well done, as usual
Again I fall victim to Muphry’s law.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So would we rather have Gamel's bat or Escobar's speed and defense?
I think either of them would be better than having 7 relievers but I am actually not sure which would be more useful? Probably Gamel’s bat but it isn’t completely clear.
by dixieflatline on Jul 22, 2008 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Either way
It’d be kind of funny if one of them pulled a Kiger.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Jul 22, 2008 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he never batted?
i see he was a defensive replacement…but what’s the deal – late inning sub?
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 22, 2008 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The A's were short of middle infielders going into the ALCS
So D’Angelo Jimenez ended up being the A’s starter at second base and Kiger was a guy on the bench in the playoffs. In Games 3 and 4 he came in as a late-inning sub at second base. He was the first guy since 1885 to make his major league debut in the playoffs.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Jul 22, 2008 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You forgot Riske in that list
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Jul 22, 2008 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dodgers-Rockies Win Expectancy
A bad signe when you have less than 2% chance of winning before the first inning is over.
by grant76 on Jul 22, 2008 2:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
So Battlekow mentioned this early in the thread but I just wanted to expound on this
Joe Sheehan in the NL mid season preview just wrote:
In fact, I think the Braves should deal for a mid-rotation starter and an outfielder, because they’re as good or better than the teams they’re fighting for a post-season berth, and still capable of winning the wild card.
And then:
If the Braves don’t win the wild card, the Brewers will.
I really have trouble taking Joe seriously here. As BP’s own postseason odds state the Braves have a lot better chance of winning the division the getting the WC because of pure statistics. BP has the Braves as a .520 team that has underperformed and I can see that. But to win the WC they need to be exactly second in the division and have a better record than two of the three NL central teams. To get to 90 wins that they need to go 43 and 20 which is a .683 clip! Needless to say that is pretty darn unlikely. I mean very, very, unlikely. Using a binomial distribution we can estimate the chances of them doing that or better at 0.65% that is less than 1 percent!
The Braves shouldn’t even be thinking about the WC because it just isn’t going to happen. It is far, far, more likely for them to win the division which, again, the BP odds calculator shows. Even if you believe the Braves are a .650 team, which they clearly aren’t my simple MC thinks that would only increase with WC chances to 4.5%! The Braves are not going to win the WC. It is plain and simple. If they think they have a chance for the division then fine maybe they should go for (I’d be selling if I got even a decent offer for Tex but that is just me) but if backing into the WC is even part of the thought process for the Braves brass then they aren’t understanding simple statistics either.
by dixieflatline on Jul 22, 2008 3:12 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
BP normally has a lot of well-written and researched articles but that one just made my head hurt. The line at the end about how he wanted to stick with his preseason picks (damn the evidence to the contrary) was just jaw-droppingly stupid. What’s the point of the article then?
by kingcharlesxii on Jul 22, 2008 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're like a really, really nice MGL
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't that kind of miss the point of being MGL?
I kid – MGL has actually been nothing but complimentary towards me in our (admittedly limited) dealings.
by cwyers on Jul 22, 2008 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So long as I'm over here, actually...
...might as well pass on that the Astros have gotten Randy Wolf.
by cwyers on Jul 22, 2008 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
For Chad Reineke. Is Randy Wolf really that poorly regarded that SD will dump him for that guy just to save ~$2M?
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
durham trade redux?
Bring Back The Old Logo!
by jacob on Jul 22, 2008 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Reineke looks fairly comparable to Steve Hammond
Except not left-handed. But I guess I figured Randy Wolf would be worth a lot more than Ray Durham.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
must be the intangibles factor, randy is minus two runs on intangibles, plus one run on the sweet lupine label… what did we agree darren ford was worth?
Bring Back The Old Logo!
by jacob on Jul 22, 2008 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He'd be a great runner if our castle was under siege
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
More Hammond parallels
Reineke was the Astros’ 7th-best prospect coming into the season, according to BA. Hammond occupied the same spot for the Brewers coming into last year, before his poor season dropped him to #27.
Reineke’s scouting report:
Reineke had the size and stuff to warrant an early-round selection, but a spotty track record in four years at Miami (Ohio) dropped him to the 13th round of the 2004 draft…Reineke’s fastball and slider both grade as average to plus pitches, though they both slipped a bit in 2007. His fastball sat closer to 90 mph more often and his slider wasn’t as hard or as sweeping as it had been in the past. He delivers both pitches on a steep angle that’s tough on hitters. Houston keeps starting Reineke in an attempt to develop his changeup. It will dive at times but still remains inconsistent. So do his mechanics and his command, which is a problem because his fastball is fairly straight. He relies on his slider too heavily.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, look at it this way.
Randy Wolf, San Diego: 4.74 ERA, 4.29 FIP
Chad Reineke, Round Rock: 4.41 ERA, 4.36 FIP
I know there’s a league quality difference there, but pitching in PETCO is going to eat some of that. I’m not entirely convinced that the Astros got the better player in the deal.
by cwyers on Jul 22, 2008 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, you're talking to the "Free Hammond" standard-bearer over here
I was more asking about the perception of Wolf. He seems like a “name”.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Manny being Manny being hit by a car.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 4:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
500 fine for disobeying an order?
I thought as a US Citizen you didn’t have to prove identity upon command.
by SgtClueLs on Jul 22, 2008 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mark DiFelice got activated from the AAA DL
h/t Brewerfan
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 4:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
To clear a spot for him at Nashville, Turnbow got DLed
Might be the end for D-Bow.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Long Island Ducks: Traded OF Jay Gibbons to the Milwaukee Brewers organization for P Derrick Turnbow.
by Zeyes on Jul 22, 2008 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jay question
What’s the longest hitting streak of team starting pitchers all time? In the modern era?
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 22, 2008 4:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
From the CBS power rankings
“Between them, Rickie Weeks and recent acquisition Ray Durham cover roughly 22 percent of the ground of an average major-league second baseman”
They have Brewers ranked #6
here
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 22, 2008 4:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Stuff I've FanShotted recently
The Brewers signed Ryan Braun’s brother.
Dave Sveum might not be that bad of a third base coach.
MLB is starting up a 24-hour network.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Jul 22, 2008 4:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Brew Crew Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 11.8.2009 at 10:18 PM CST)
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
