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Wednesday's Frosty Mug

I know you'll all be very disappointed, but today's Trash Day was uneventful, so I don't have an anecdote to lead off the Mug.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score

So, if you've been watching the games, you probably realize that Rickie Weeks is hitting .273/.467/.636 in the three games since the Durham trade. This one, however, snuck up on me: Bill Hall is hitting .405/.444/.833 with 4 home runs in his last 12 games. Adam Charles of Bugs & Cranks has a theory to explain it: Magic Skoal.

It's going to take more than chewing tobacco to get him back to the big leagues, but the Brewers signed Jay Gibbons to a minor league deal yesterday, ending his 27-game career with the Long Island Ducks.

After I complained in yesterday's Mug about the Whisnant rankings and suggested their ranking system could use a little work, I got an email from Paul Kuo of Whatifsports.com, who wanted to make sure I had seen their most recent power rankings. On the strength of the Sabathia trade the Brewers skyrocketed up the charts to fourth this week, so obviously the WIS rankings are better.

Also, CBSSports.com ranks the Brewers sixth, and second best in the NL.

TheJay is working to quantify Vulture Wins, and discovered that both Salomon Torres and Brian Shouse are among the league leaders. Reall,y, if you just start checking Recondite Baseball every day, you'll be one step ahead of everyone else when the Mug comes out.

On injuries:

White Sox 3B Joe Crede was scratched from last night's lineup with back stiffness.
Cards OF Chris Duncan has been placed on the DL with a bulging disc in his neck.
Reds SP Josh Fogg needed 30 stitches to repair damage done to his upper lip after being hit by a ball in batting practice.

Certainly, yesterday's most puzzling transaction was the Astros' decision to trade for Randy Wolf. The Astros are 12 games back of the Cubs and BP Postseason Odds gives them a .08% chance at making the playoffs, roughly 1 in 1220. R.J. Anderson of Beyond the Box Score is one of thousands who didn't like the move, but Astros beat writer Brian McTaggart defended it.

In other transactions, the Diamondbacks traded a prospect to the Nationals for Jon Rauch, meaning two of the tallest players in MLB history (along with Randy Johnson) are now on the same roster.

Here's a puzzling decision: Skyking162 has ranked the top 25 position players of right now. Well, really he's ranked the top 23 and given 18 more honorable mentions to get to 41. Here are some names on the list so far:

Evan Longoria, who has yet to finish his first big league season.
Brian Roberts
B.J. Upton
Mark Ellis
Rick Ankiel
Scott Rolen
David DeJesus
Aaron Rowand
Adrian Beltre

Yet somehow, Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are nowhere to be found. With the possible exception of Longoria, there's not a single guy on that list who deserves to be ahead of Braun and Fielder. And Mark Ellis? That's a joke.

Francisco Rodriguez is threatening to become the first closer ever to reach 60 saves in a season. 6-4-2 has the math on what it will take for him to get there.

These seem to tie together nicely: In-Between Hops has a list of the greatest living players in the history of 29 franchises. Joe Posnanski takes a look at players who posted more than three "great" seasons in their careers.

If you're looking for a lesson on somewhat advanced statistics, this debate between Tangotiger and Geoff Baker is pretty instructive on the strengths, weaknesses and correct uses of ERA+.

Oh, and here's a hurricane prediction that's as accurate as any you'll see today.

Drink up.

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One game away from first

Looks like the Cubs/Brewers series coming up is going to be a big one.

by adam316 on Jul 23, 2008 9:33 AM CDT   0 recs

what did we tell you about “first?”

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 23, 2008 9:36 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

It's fleeting?

We sure remember that well of last year.

by SgtClueLs on Jul 23, 2008 9:40 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yep

Apparently that is just how the Cubs roll.

by adam316 on Jul 23, 2008 9:42 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Apparently that is just how the Cubs troll.

fixed. (that one is for you ACB).

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 23, 2008 10:39 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

ha!

you laugh now but just wait until the brew cub series coming up

i would bet a shinny penny that BrewCrewBall will see alot of 1st time posters

and then some others who have layed low while building their street cred

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 10:40 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

hmmm

i appeared this year

perhaps I’m just “credding up”

lets all start to point fingers around – I think battlekow is a cub fan: he cares enough about them to post a fan post when one of their pitchers gets injured. If he was a true brewer fan, he’d just post stuff directly concerning the brewers! dixie, you’re next:)

by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 23, 2008 11:30 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

After Monday’s conversation, I just think of them as the “math guys.” I

by ol Pete on Jul 23, 2008 10:41 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i stand

by that all the way because its true. if you really think “math” was on your side 2 days ago then you’re crazy. just because its working out for you doesnt mean I was wrong.

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 10:43 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If you're the Brewers

math is always on your side.

And neck size to baby eating ratio.

by jihad on Jul 23, 2008 10:49 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

it was a joke. let it go. (or use it to describe all brewer fans, whatever floats your boat.)

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 23, 2008 10:50 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

right now

the cubs boat is sinking so you will have to excuse a bit of Erage

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 10:51 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, it was crazy to think the Brewers would split with the Cards and that the D-backs could win against the Cubs. And then there was that reference to the volume of runs scored by the Cubs. Ah, the ever so predictive pythag.

by ol Pete on Jul 23, 2008 10:57 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

pythag was

pretty accurate last year no?

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 10:58 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You mean when the D-Backs played the Cubs in the playoffs?

by ol Pete on Jul 23, 2008 11:00 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

no

when i kept saying the cubs would catch the brews for the divison :)

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 11:01 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I wonder how this guy feels

It’s going to take a big collapse now to make this true.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jul 23, 2008 10:09 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

cmon

its chicago area sportswriter this season alone

they have invented the + – system
The post you linked to
Confused Sam Fuld with Felix Pie

making fun of their crazy is like clubbing a baby seal-its just too easy

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 10:17 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

that was super-poorly written

what a god-awful author.

he makes money doing that?

by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 23, 2008 11:38 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

:)

the cubs are still the better team, it’s their division to lose this year.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 23, 2008 10:28 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

It isn't looking too good

for the Cubs right now, but Soriano should be back tonight. Cubs fans don’t expect anything out of him until he has played 4 or 5 games, but that seems to be the norm from him after returning from the DL.

by adam316 on Jul 23, 2008 10:31 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

fontenot has hit: .324/.410/.721 since soriano went on the DL

has soriano been missed?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 23, 2008 11:35 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

fontenot

is good for 1 good month a year

the real issues is that Lou is working Soto to death, Aramis has been awful for a month now, fukudome is being adjusted to and Lee cant stop hitting DP’s

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 11:46 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Fontenot

Seems to be a stud, I can’t really agree with ACB here because Fontenot has been awesome in the few time that he actually gets to play. Lou somehow underestimated his potential, but I think he has started to realize it. The poor play by the Cubs on the road cannot be overlooked however.

by adam316 on Jul 23, 2008 12:47 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

agreed

the playoff spots await for both teams if they dont muck it up and really thats all that counts

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 10:32 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Maybe there are different techniques or materials to stitch people up

but 30 stitches used to be a lot. I think I got 4 or 5 in about an inch and a half the last time I was sewn up. I think Josh Fogg might miss a start.

by ol Pete on Jul 23, 2008 9:54 AM CDT   0 recs

I'm going to guess

Bleeding inside your mouth is a little harder to stop. It’s being diagnosed as a “split upper lip,” and if that’s half as nasty as my mental image of it, my guess is it’d bleed a lot.

Derek Jeter is day to day after being hit by a pitch and being gorilla press slammed by a Bizarro Ray.

by KLSnow on Jul 23, 2008 10:10 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

No, he'll be fine

With a split lip there are two sides of the cut that need stitches. So a one inch cut is really a two inch cut, and the skin on the interior of the lip is more tender they need to put the stitches closer together. The only problematic part is when the stitch is left too long it gets caught in between your teeth, which is more annoying than painful..

by Getting Yosted on Jul 23, 2008 10:13 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks for educating me, but… ouch!

by ol Pete on Jul 23, 2008 10:24 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Remember how Jason Kendall was going to be run on all the time?

An Angels catcher threw out a baserunner trying to steal for the first time in over a month yesterday.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jul 23, 2008 10:06 AM CDT   0 recs

thought

i would stop by to get a whiff of a fanbase that is exicted rather than manic depressive

all i really care about is making the playoffs if we could get a brewer-cub NLCS that would be peachy because Jacob would lose his mind trying to stop BCB infiltration and trolls

plus it would be a really intense series

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 10:08 AM CDT   0 recs

It could be fun, but also horribly painful. There’s enough animosity between the two to cause a lot of fights to break out in the stands.

With that said, I’d love to attend a Brewers playoff game. I think I would openly weep.. (or pee my pants)

by SgtClueLs on Jul 23, 2008 10:17 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

that would

be the fun part for me-i can sit back in kansas and watch the drunkies from both towns duke it out

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 10:20 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Ahhh..

Ahh.. one of our plants is in Winfield. KS. 45 minutes or so SE of Wichita. I caught a AA game in Wichita last year.

It’s hot down there….

by SgtClueLs on Jul 23, 2008 10:29 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

its

nice and warm out there today

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 10:31 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

71 here.

Cool day today, high of 77. Saves money.. no AC :)

by SgtClueLs on Jul 23, 2008 10:32 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

thats just

too damn cold for late july

plus living in KS i get to drink suds from your neck of the woods without having to endure those winters

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 10:33 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Bottled Beer

Isn’t bottled beer (or is it all beer) 2.8%?

That’s no beer!

by SgtClueLs on Jul 23, 2008 11:26 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

2.8?

hell no we have normal beer here in the heartland

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 11:27 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

A ha!

No wonder, last time I had to spend a week in Kansas I got a 6 pack to watch MNF. Drank it and didn’t feel a thing.. now I see why.

The only alcoholic beverage which grocery stores and gas stations may only sell is beer with no more than 3.2% alcohol by weight.

I got it at Dillards down there. That explains why I got full before I felt it.

by SgtClueLs on Jul 23, 2008 11:35 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Its hard to keep track of. There are blue counties and special Sunday rules I think.

by ol Pete on Jul 23, 2008 11:43 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I was there recently.

You cannot buy beer after 11:00pm any day of the week unless you are in a bar drinking it. Also you couldn’t buy beer on Sunday morning until like 11:00am. Some of the locals told me that you could get 9.0 beer there though, but I guess I didn’t check.

by adam316 on Jul 23, 2008 12:54 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Can’t buy beer or liquore from a store after 9pm every day of the week in Wisconsin.

There are some bars that are licensed to sell it for take out after 9pm.

by SgtClueLs on Jul 23, 2008 12:57 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Wow, I did not know that.

That is insane that the state that produces the most beer has those kind of laws about purchasing it. Where I live you can drink beer in bars or buy it at any store that is open until 2:00am every day, but if you drink on Sunday, you have to drink Shlitz.

by adam316 on Jul 23, 2008 1:16 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

well of course you can drink beer in bars until bar time

but yeah, Vic Pierce in Madison selling beer until midnight saved my bacon on multiple occasions.

by warwick5s on Jul 23, 2008 1:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

that's not a statewide law

that’s city-by-city
Madison has the 9PM law, but Middleton does not (and I don’t think Fitchburg does either). Hence late-night booze runs by the UW campus across city lines.

by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 23, 2008 1:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Actually, there is a statewide law

It’s midnight, though, and local municipalities are free to further restrict it.

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Jul 23, 2008 1:41 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If we can at least make the playoffs this year

I’d be happy (and maybe even pee my pants a little). It would show the progress the team has made (though free agency will hurt), plus once we’re in the playoffs anything can happen.

Coffee is for closers

by drezdn on Jul 23, 2008 10:25 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i fully

expect the brews to make the playoffs. i picked them to win the divison in March and now I think the WC is whats going to happen. A Cub-Brewer NLCS would be pretty sweet to watch

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 10:26 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You are the only person that I've ever heard call the Brewers the brews

Im not criticizing, Im just curious if you’ve heard someone call them that or if that’s your invention.

by brewfan2 on Jul 23, 2008 10:47 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

im lazy

and dont want to type brewers

thats pretty much it

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 10:50 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

one of my friends from high school...

...that I worked with as an usher at County Stadium, called them the brews.

by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 23, 2008 11:43 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Hey! We're the Brews!

Sporting anti-swastika tattoos!

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Jul 23, 2008 12:57 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

NOFX!

There’s a band I haven’t thought about in a long time.

by MillerParkSouth on Jul 23, 2008 2:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

me too

I think I actually have to sell a game to someone to pay for the rest of the playoffs. I’m not rich ya’know. :(

by SgtClueLs on Jul 23, 2008 11:27 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

thanks for the link, even if it's to rip my ratings ; )

feel free to comment over at my blog. here are some quick thoughts on Braun and Fielder:

Braun is overrated thanks to his mediocre OBP and defensive abilities. he’s had about as many PAs this year as last, so splitting the difference puts him at about a .350 OBP and .590 SLG. that’s pretty good—on par with guys like Texeira, Bay, Burrell, and Dunn. but then Braun is a corner outfielder, which takes away value. and he’s middle of the road in the field, at best. (I think I have him at -.5 wins over a full season right now.)

Fielder has the same issues as Braun. He’s a better hitter, but plays a less important position and is worse at it.

Both guys make the top 50, which is pretty good.

I won’t discuss all the other names you had a problem with, but I want to address one, the most underrated player in the game: Mark Ellis. He’s nothing fantastic with the bat, but Oakland’s park hides a slightly above-average stick. And then he, like all AL hitters, gets a half-win advantage compared to NL hitters. And then you’ve got his glove, which is one of the best in the game. He’s consistently two wins better than average in the field. Someone like Fielder is two wins below average (one for position, one for fielding his position). That’s a FOUR WIN swing. Fielder is “only” 3-3.5 wins better with the bat.

The other names listed receive a lot of value for the position they play and/or their ability to field their position.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 23, 2008 10:12 AM CDT   0 recs

the brewers are a very deep team

most positions are better than league-average offensively. and the defense is much improved over last year.

Braun and Fielder are very good players. just not top 30. that’s not dissing them at all. teams have, on average, ONE top-30 position player. the brewers don’t have one. but they have two in the top 50, which is better than average. how is that a bad thing?

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 23, 2008 10:32 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Have you watched a Brewers game this year?

by ol Pete on Jul 23, 2008 10:27 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

texeira

on par with guys like Texeira

so texeira is more valuable defensively than braun? you are not considering contract status right?

here’s a pretty good ranking of players and their value from dave cameron.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 23, 2008 10:46 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i'm not considering contracts at all, although I was a big fan of Dave's top 50

these are my ratings of the best players RIGHT NOW—who would you most want on your team for the second half of the 2008 season.

yes, Tex has more defensive value than Braun. even if you think Braun is average in LF, that’s worth -.5 wins over a full season. 1B is worth -1.0 wins, but Tex is a full win better than average, putting him at 0 overall. (I think I put Braun at -.5 wins in my ratings, making him 1 full win less valuable defensively than Tex. I’d love to hear Brewer fans opinions on Braun’s defense in left, though.)

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 23, 2008 10:50 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

How do you determine what is considered the league average defensively?

by wisco24 on Jul 23, 2008 10:56 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

position-wise? or within each position?

CA: +1.0
SS/CF: +.5
2B/3B: 0
LF/RF: -.5
1B: -1.0
DH: -1.5

Those are from research that Tango Tiger did about how fielders fare when they play multiple positions. (For example, corner outfielders tend to rate a full win worse when they play center field, and vice versa. On average.)

For specific fielding ratings at each position, I look at zone rating stats, for which you can find league-averages by just averaging all players together. For this top 25 list, I perused some UZR and STATS/BIS zone ratings, but there wasn’t anything scientific beyond that.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 23, 2008 11:02 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Suprisingly better than feared

Cameron being able to cover a sh!t-ton of ground in center helps appearances. He can play deep, shade the line and not really worry too much about the gap.

by Getting Yosted on Jul 23, 2008 10:56 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

What did you think of Braun’s defense when you watched him?

by ol Pete on Jul 23, 2008 11:00 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

jeter has a few gold gloves too, i think.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 23, 2008 10:51 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

raffy

has one as well

by ACB on Jul 23, 2008 10:52 AM CDT