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Ok, I think my hiatus is done. I've gone on vacation, I've moved, and last night I got home from 5 days in Denver. And somehow, I managed to schedule my return for the biggest Brewer news day of the season.

Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score

First, if you haven't seen them yet, the specifics of the trade: In exchange for a 3 month rental of C.C. Sabathia and the increased potential of a long playoff run, the Brewers are giving up Matt LaPorta, Zach Jackson and West Virginia reliever Rob Bryson. They will likely also add Brevard Co. 3B Taylor Green.

Of course, some people have written about this:

Baseball Intellect has a nice overview of the trade, complete with a review of Sabathia's stuff, if you're not familiar with him.
In-Between Hops likes the move.
Phil Rogers says it's time to take the Brewers seriously again...so he ranks them behind All-Star arguments in his most recent power poll.
Thomas Wayne of Dugout Central pulls out the smallest possible sample size and says the Sabathia move won't help the Brewers, based on his 7+ ERA in four career postseason starts.

I think the most interesting Sabathia conversation has yet to start, though: Who does he replace in the rotation? Assuming Sheets and Suppan are safe, and Dave Bush is similarly safe based on his recent performances and Ned Yost's man-crush on him, then we're down to Seth McClung and Manny Parra. In the Fanposts, Badgermaniac suggests platooning them. What do you think?

A semi-related note: The Biz of Baseball has made a list of six GMs on the hot seat. If this move doesn't work out and Doug Melvin traded a large chunk of the future for a 3 month rental on a team that misses the playoffs, he'll likely be on lists like that next season.

Also, while I doubt he'll slide directly into Sabathia's spot in the rotation, the Indians signed Jeff Weaver yesterday.

Are the Brewers done dealing? Buster Olney, via The Brew Town Beat, says the answer may be no. They're reportedly still talking to the Padres about Randy Wolf and Greg Maddux.

Somehow overshadowed in all of this: The Brewers finished a 3-game sweep of the Pirates yesterday, and J.J. Hardy is hitting .468/.507/1.000 in his last 15 games with 9 doubles, 8 HR and 19 RBI.

All told, the last 24 hours have certainly been more interesting than sitting on the roof.

On injuries:

Braves reliever Manny Acosta injured his hamstring running out a sac bunt and has been DL'ed.
Braves P Jeff Bennett is on the DL after injuring himself throwing to first.
Lance Berkman missed yesterday's game with what sounds like a pretty nasty eye condition.
A's SS Bobby Crosby is on the DL with a strained hamstring.
D-Backs RP Juan Cruz is on the DL with a strained oblique.
Johnny Damon is on the DL for the first time in his career after injuring his shoulder colliding with the wall Friday.
Nats OF Elijah Dukes will be out 4-6 weeks after having arthroscopic surgery to repair damage to his patella.
Phillies reliever Tom Gordon is on the DL with elbow inflammation.
Orlando Hernandez pitched four rehab innings yesterday. It's unclear whether he threw the banana.
Reds OF Norris Hopper will miss the rest of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Braves IF Omar Infante is on the DL with a strained hamstring
Roy Oswalt's next start is being pushed back to give him time to recover from pain in his hip.
Troy Tulowitzki is on the DL after breaking a maple bat against the wall and slicing open his hand.

A quick maple bat story: Saturday night I attended my first game at Coors Field (worth seeing if you're in Denver, but don't go out of your way to get there). I was nearly reduced to tears by the inane conversation of two young women behind me, who showed incredible perseverance by hanging in there through 3 full hours and two rain showers despite the fact that they had almost no idea a game was going on. Some examples from their conversation, when they weren't too busy talking about drinks, hookups and drugs:
Are the Rockies winning? I always get the R's and H's confused. Which one is runs?
The Rockies were up 8-0 at the time. The following quote came after a home run was inadvertently knocked back onto the field by a fan trying to make the catch:
A fan knocked that ball back on the field. Is the hitter out? No? Is that because it went over the fence or something?
But, in the middle of all of that mess, they also said this:
They're breaking a lot of bats.
My point: Even the ditziest blonde in Denver recognizes the problems with maple bats. Major League Baseball, however, still says the matter needs more research.

Stories like this put our pitching conversations into perspective: Mark Mulder is starting for the Cardinals again.

The Phillies have taken an opportunity to drive up the price of closers, and rewarded Brad Lidge's half-season of effective bullpen work with a 3-year, $37.5 million extension.

Oh, and by the way, I hate the X-Games with the fire of a thousand suns, but I love Darkmane.

Drink up.

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Juan Cruz's name reminds me

Whatever happened with Daron Sutton’s news about something being in the works between Arizona and Milwaukee?

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jul 7, 2008 10:01 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I do not see how you can take Parra out of the rotation

he is a lefty he is winning he should have 9 wins vs. 2 losses he has not lost since May 25th.

he is also pitching very well hits over last 4 games 4, 5, 2, 4 and 0 earned runs in 3 of those 4 games. No I cannot see them removing Parra right now.

I really think it is between Bush and McClung and I have no problem with either one they will make the pen better

Suppan should be the one but we all know that is not going to happen due to his contract.

Its all about the Bullpen this season that is the key.

by WSB Chris on Jul 7, 2008 10:11 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The argument for (or against) Parra

is innings, pure and simple. He’s pitching very well, but he’s also racking up innings at a faster pace than I think most people within the organization (and many of us outside) would like. If moving him out of the rotation for a couple of weeks or a month can get him back on an acceptable pace and reduce his injury risk in a meaningful fashion, then to me it makes sense.

Derek Jeter is day to day after being hit by a pitch and being gorilla press slammed by a Bizarro Ray.

by KLSnow on Jul 7, 2008 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Suppan's contract

does the contract say he needs to start? or is the issue just that they shelled out a lot of money and have expected him to be a starter? Ie, why not just throw him into the Pen for a few starts in the rotation until either Bush or McClung fall apart.

I guess my second choice is McClung. He seems to have lost some of his early starting mastery

by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 7, 2008 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't assume Suppan is "safe"

given his recent outings. Is he injured? He seems able to come back from his disastrous first 70 pitches. What’s going on with him anyway?

I like the idea of three power pitchers in the rotation

Sheets
Sabathia
McClung

with Parra and a healthy Suppan or today’s Bush for the 5th slot.

Nice work, Melvin. LaPorta is better suited as a DH in the AL anyway.

by heybatterbatter on Jul 7, 2008 10:11 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Suppan

I’m sure it’s just a rough stretch for him. He’s had them before, and I’m sure he’ll have them again. Luckily, he’s also had his share of good stretches to make up for it.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jul 7, 2008 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Suppan's stats for the past two years

don’t show a stretch similar to his past three starts. Maybe I’m missing something. I think his next start later this week – unless he’s “rested” to make room for Sabathia – will give us a better view to make arguments. If he allows 5 runs through the 3rd inning, I’ll do another “the sky is falling” post on Suppan, you can bet… ;^)

by heybatterbatter on Jul 7, 2008 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

those are interesting

Seems like they last about as long as the current one.

by ol Pete on Jul 7, 2008 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

my vote is on McClung

So, will this be the first time, that a team removes a 6’6” pitcher from the rotation, and actually gets taller?

by keephopealive on Jul 7, 2008 10:26 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Just ran the numbers.

Assuming Bush gets moved to the pen, the upgrade to the rotation is worth about 1.5 wins.

by cwyers on Jul 7, 2008 10:36 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

i got 13 runs.

who did you replace in the bullpen?

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 7, 2008 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't do any bullpen chaining.

That’s why I went ahead and clarified “to the rotation.” 13 runs is pretty close – I took the long way around and used Pythangenpat exponents, which probably didn’t add much to the accuracy but what the hell, right?

by cwyers on Jul 7, 2008 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

ok.

so you effectively removed bush from the roster (instead of moving him to the pen).

did you use pre-season projections? you should write this up.

Bring Back The Old Logo!

by jacob on Jul 7, 2008 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dixie is doing something similar

He’s writing it up.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's on GROTA.

Linky. (Warning: rampant Cubs homerism.)

I did updated projections using Szym’s ZiPS tool. I figured out the difference between 101 innings of Sabathia (from the projection) and 85 innings of Bush/16 innings of the Brewers pen. Win percentage was figured using Pythagenpat.

by cwyers on Jul 7, 2008 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you wanted to do the chaining from there on...

...then project Bush as a reliever (which is a pain to do, and likely not that accurate) versus Stetter’s projection in the bullpen (again, likely not very accurate). It’d probably be easier to just go ask a unicorn about Dave Bush’s value as a relielver, and it couldn’t be any less accurate.

by cwyers on Jul 7, 2008 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does that factor CC' hitting?

And as an aside, do you think he will be used as a pinch hitter much?

by grant76 on Jul 7, 2008 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

of course...

one marginal win is worth what, $2 million (?) on the FA market…it’s not much, but it’s also not nothing.

by Zeyes on Jul 7, 2008 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

$4.4 mil, I think.

Depending on what your baseline is. But I don’t think Bush or Sabathia fall into being the best or worst hitting pitchers, so the difference (especially over a half season) is probably minimal.

by cwyers on Jul 7, 2008 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

this is a complicated subject

but $3MM is probably the low end anymore.

But hey, minimal might mean $300k, and if the Brewers don’t want it, I’ll take it. (In cash, please, not in CC at-bats.)

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jul 7, 2008 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Press conference

Video and audio; still waiting for it to start.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:07 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Now they laugh and admit that no one knows how to pronounce it

“Shouldn’t we know?”

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Apparently "CC" has no periods

Who knew?

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But "J.J." does...

which Melvin wasn’t entirely sure about, either. Hilarious exchange.

by Zeyes on Jul 7, 2008 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

"The [trade] deadline's not here yet."

Attaboy Doug.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Attanasio very frank

Says that they’re gambling six years of LaPorta for a couple months of Sabathia, basically acknowledging it will be very tough to re-sign him.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe that's why...

that merchandising guy in the Indians org allegedly had inside knowledge of the trade and there’ll be a corresponding LaPorta surge in Cleveland, too. :)

by Zeyes on Jul 7, 2008 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yayyyy

really glad I got those tickets last night :D

by warwick5s on Jul 7, 2008 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll be there.

"Cubs fans boo again – 99% of these people can’t see the plate." -Ueck

by dux2bux on Jul 7, 2008 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

PTBNL

Melvin was asked but said he didn’t want to get into it. Absolutely nothing specific.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

(typical Melvin)

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Indians forums

Also mentioned Corey Hart as a piece of the trade at some point, didn’t they?

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jul 7, 2008 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Melvin also doesn't want to get into other names that were thrown around

He said LaPorta was “untouchable” a few weeks ago and that other players are untouchable—the implication, of course, being Gamel and Escobar.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

There was a question about re-signing Sabathia

Melvin said “most July trades are rentals” and that he told Sabathia to come over and worry about this season.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Asked if he was looking to shore up any other spots

“I’m always looking”.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Melvin didn't say what corresponding roster moves would be made

He also said that some of Huntsville’s players would probably get called up in September.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Asked Mark A if this would put the team in the red

He laughed, but basically said yes, for the short term. Payroll is $90M now.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have decided

This is the best day in my Brewer memory behind only Robin Yount’s 3000th hit (I was born in 1983).

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on Jul 7, 2008 11:19 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

hmmmmm

if Brantley is included I’d be significantly less OK with this trade

by warwick5s on Jul 7, 2008 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Me too

I mean that is a significant player to be named later… not just a throw in, we are talking a cornerpiece to the deal…

But I still like what the Brewers are doing overall, just hurts a little more

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on Jul 7, 2008 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seems like he had a very specific person in mind

Kept saying things like “the deal doesn’t get done without him.”

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Then it's probably Brantley

They are waiting for him to return from his injury.

by Getting Yosted on Jul 7, 2008 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was my thought as well

Funny that someone would have told his agent that his name hadn’t even come up then.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmmm…...definetly not a girl then.

by grant76 on Jul 7, 2008 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Doug asks if he is pronoucing his name right

And then says ” I should know that”

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on Jul 7, 2008 11:37 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Suppan is the weakest link...

based on almost every concievable measurement. The SAFE pitchers should be Parra and McClung.

ERA:
Parra-3.69
McClung-4.18
Suppan-4.71
Bush-4.74

Whip:
Bush-1.22
McClung-1.36
Parra-1.52
Suppan-1.60

OBA:
Bush-.303
McClung-.332
Parra-.355
Suppan-.368

ERA last 30 days:
Para-2.37
Bush-3.55
McClung-4.08
Suppan-6.75

WHIP last 30 days:
Bush-1.08
McClung-1.26
Parra-1.38
Suppan-1.93

OBA last 30 days:
Bush-.277
McClung-.328
Parra-.339
Suppan-.406

2008 ERA+
Parra-117
McClung-103
Suppan-92
Dave Bush-91

by Danny Noonan on Jul 7, 2008 11:38 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Sunk costs suck, don't they?

Apparently economics is the last unexplored country in baseball management. ;)

by morineko on Jul 7, 2008 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

My gut feeling...

...is that the Brewers would be best served with a rotation of:

Sheets
Sabathia
McClung
Parra
Villanueva

and BOTH of Suppan and Bush in the pen. I’ll admit I haven’t researched this hunch much.

by cwyers on Jul 7, 2008 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seems like Villanueva is probably done as a starter for the Brewers

I think they like him better out of the pen.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What about bringing Suppan back from the bullpen for his

*playoff cluthness into the rotation

and take out CC sicne apparently he is not clutch according to a lot of Indians fans

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on Jul 7, 2008 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

calculation has to include expected performance

Bush is finishing up a strong run and the conventional wisdom is that Suppan will be strong soon.

I think McClung’s skills translate to the bullpen as well.

by ol Pete on Jul 7, 2008 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

LaPorta

For those interested, LaPorta will apparently start at AA for Cleveland, and will stay in the outfield for now, but will take groundballs at first.

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 11:56 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

up on the roof

I wonder if the cartoon is a Laura Nyro reference

by ol Pete on Jul 7, 2008 12:09 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Melvin on the radio

people who know CC personally include Prince and David Riske

by ol Pete on Jul 7, 2008 12:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

CC

I’m excited to have him for the next couple months and I hope the trade works out for both sides. I was a little more excited until I realized that this probably means any Greinke acquisitions will probably have to wait till the offseason at the earliest.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Jul 7, 2008 12:36 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The face of the trade:

He's extremely quick and good.

by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 12:42 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

(yikes)

go get em' seth!

by Jamie in LA on Jul 7, 2008 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

McClung

They only column or article I’ve seen even address the situation in terms of us needing to send someone to the pan is here and it’s about the Fantasy Baseball connotations of the trade.

by tristarscoop on Jul 7, 2008 2:29 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

McClung is still valuable in fantasy even in the bullpen

...if your league is like one of the ones I’m in and counts holds. ;)

In any case, we’re all waiting 15 days now on this. Bush and McClung are probably going to step it up with the job on the line here, I’d hope…

by morineko on Jul 7, 2008 6:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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