We Got Sabathia
In a handful of threads on this site, just about every angle of the Sabathia deal has been picked apart. But, since I am a Brewers blogger, it would seem weird if I let this pass without substantial comment.
First off, go read Two-Fisted Slopper's recap of the press conference, including this gem:
Melvin: I talked to CC last night, doesn't want days at home, wants to be in dugout tonight. It's very encouraging. He knows a few of our players, Riske, who said there's a guy in Cleveland that may be available. I can only listen because of tampering.
More thoughts in more or less random order:
- Also from the press conference, Attanasio confirmed that the move puts us at about $90MM in payroll. I bring this up because nearly everything I've heard and read from fans reflects what is increasingly the "old" reality of being a small-market team. Sure, we're never going to be the Yankees, and we'll never have the largest payroll even in the division, but a $90MM payroll is radically new territory compared to the situation just a couple of years ago.
- I bring this up because I think it's a mistake to discard the Brewers' chances of keeping Sabathia. Melvin said in the presser that most players acquired now-ish are rentals, and that's the focus for now. But a $90MM payroll is going to include a couple of big dollar guys--as it should, since you usually need superstars to win, even the Brewers can't develop superstars at will, and superstars cost a premium. I'm not saying that we ought to throw $120MM/6 at CC (really, I have no idea what would be a good max for him at this point), but of all the pitchers likely to be available on the free agent market this winter, he's probably the one worth overpaying for, and the one most likely to be worth it into years five and six. Certainly he's a better bet than Sheets (but, of course, market price will reflect that).
- Still on Melvin: Setting aside for a moment whether he overpaid, kudos to him for getting this done in time for a start on July 8th. We could get five starts out of Sabathia before other teams pull the trigger on their deadline acquisitions.
- Amazingly how quickly things change--just a few years ago, the Brewers were an extremely white team, and now there could be days with five African-Americans in the starting lineup. I wonder whether we'll lead the league in VORP (or Win Shares, or whatever) from black players.
- On to the mechanics of the deal. Obviously, we're foregoing a huge upside in LaPorta, who would've been cheap, and could very well have been great, for several years in Milwaukee. I'm finding it hard to be very balanced about this, because (a) I'm really psyched about the deal, and that enthusiasm is completely irrational, and (b) I've never been satisfied with the way prospects are evaluated for deals like this. It's easy to say that a prospect is "can't-miss," and that LaPorta is a sure-thing .290, 30 HR hitter as soon as 2010. There is a high probability that he'll do that, sure, but there is a non-negligible probability that he (or another other prospect, especially two or more levels away from the bigs) will fizzle and never make an impact, that he will suffer an injury, or he will arrive and be frustratingly mediocre, like Weeks has often been. I don't know whether the total probability of those undesirable outcomes is 5% or 25%, but I'm pretty sure they're higher than the probability that Sabathia implodes (or suffers a serious injury) for us. Names like Andy Marte are important to keep in mind for those of us who are attached to our prospects.
- I wish we could keep Taylor Green and Michael Brantley, but really, guys at that level have substantially higher probabilities of not turning into anything, and I'm perfectly happy accepting a trade of two high draft picks for Green/Bryson/Jackson.
- Regardless of whether we overpaid, or whether we could've gotten CC for less if we had waited a couple of weeks while the Dodgers or whoever didn't come through with a better offer, let's remember that we got the best available player at the deadline. (I suppose you could make a case for Rich Harden, but remember what I said about probabilities a minute ago?) Not only did we get the best available player, we got the one who is likely to make the biggest impact on the Brewers, both in the race for the playoffs and in the playoffs themselves.
- Rotoworld saved me some time and came up with a couple of the stat lines I was looking for. Career interleague for Sabathia: "12-6 with a 3.74 ERA and 167/59 K/BB ratio in 190 interleague innings." Sabathia since his rocky start: 2.16 ERA with a 109/20 K/BB ratio in his last 104 1/3 innings. Keep in mind that most of those innings are against American League teams, and National League offenses aren't as strong. Yowsa.
- This is awesome.
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Nice Summary
I think the fact that he’s a big K guy will be a huge plus for the team as well.
Coffee is for closers
by drezdn on Jul 7, 2008 3:09 PM CDT 0 recs
I share your slightly cautious enthusiasm. Yes, LaPorta will probably be good. Yes Sabathia probably will not stay, but the offense is going to be fine, and we could really use another ace for the post season run.
We have a decent crop in AA that should keep the big league/AAA supplied, and we haven’t really gotten a feel for this year’s draft, which brought in 6 new guys in the first couple of rounds. Plus, we’ll likely get a couple more picks for CC in the upcoming draft.
My biggest concern is pitching in 2009 going forward. I don’t see a scenario where Sheets and Sabathia both stay. If we can keep one of them, we will still have a good 1-2 punch, but after that we have question marks. Parra might be fine, but he has an injury history, and other than Jeffress, there isn’t much to get excited about in the minors.
Bottom line is that we made the right call by going for the jugular this season.
by grant76 on Jul 7, 2008 3:22 PM CDT 0 recs
One more thing not mentioned
CC is leading all pitchers (with 40+ AB’s) in batting average at .300. I realize that the sample size is super small, but it does show that he can somewhat hit.
by brewfan2 on Jul 7, 2008 3:38 PM CDT 0 recs
that would argue for
Dillon getting the eventual boot to the minors.
CC can pinch hit 4 of every 5 games, meaning he’s almost as useful as Dillon. I don’t think he can fill in at 2B though:P
by PagsBrewCrew on
Jul 7, 2008 4:30 PM CDT
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NL Central Future
I am a Cubs fan and an NL Central fan because I like to see the division competitive like it is now…it’s more fun to watch..I actually like baseball not just ivy and old style.
But I think this is a risky move for the Brew crew because it kind of says that they are going for broke this year right now with the best NL central in years. CC is a free agent after this year, so they traded their future for 3 months of play…that’s crazy. It would only be smart if they had a better team or if the NL central was weak and they had a better shot at a penant, but in this case it’s super risky and will probably hurt their team in the next 2 years or more with losing such good Farm players.
by mjperri88 on Jul 7, 2008 4:18 PM CDT 0 recs
There's still a lot of good players on the farm
The Brewers will be fine.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on
Jul 7, 2008 4:20 PM CDT
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dont forget, if C.C. walks the brewers get serious draft picks to build a future. If the brewers pursue signing him itl be because he brought the club into the playoffs. This was a good move for the brewers and nearly guarentees theyr going to contend in the 2nd half.
by spinz on
Jul 7, 2008 4:30 PM CDT
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so...
what’re the chances CC prioritizes a playoff future and a W.S. win over a big ass contract.
ie, if he seems to fit into Milwaukee well, would he be willing to sign with MKE for less than he would get in free agency if he thought we had a legit shot at the playoffs in 2008/2009/2010?
by PagsBrewCrew on
Jul 7, 2008 4:44 PM CDT
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I doubt it
I would guess that the teams throwing the big money at CC in the offseason are mostly going to be teams that have a legit shot at the playoffs in ‘08, ‘09, and ‘10 anyway. So that shouldn’t affect his decision too much.
by sheeter on
Jul 7, 2008 5:24 PM CDT
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Trading our future?
We still have a more loaded farm system than nearly any team in the NL. LaPorta wasn’t even the best prospect on his own team.
Best Case: Sabathia/Sheets are somehow signed for the next couple of years.
Worst Case: We get 5 out of the first 35 draft picks next season.
Factor in the fact that the young core of our offense will still be signed for the next few years, and I don’t think we really sacrificed our future at all.
"My thing is that you guys eat meat all day and you can't hit a ball. That's my thing." - P. Fielder
by SRB on
Jul 7, 2008 5:32 PM CDT
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People keep saying 5 out of 35
It could be more if Kendall (type B Free agent last year, and improved a lot thus far, so probably type A for now) and Cameron (also type B last year) aren’t around next year (both have club options, so I don’t know if you still get compensation picks)... and even Gagne if he settles down the rest of the year and gets his ERA down probably another type B…
So it could be 9 out of top 60 or so? If all 5 leave and I think they need to sign on a top 16 team or something like that.
Someone correct me if I am wrong on this, but that would be even better than this last draft.
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
by Kyguy922 on
Jul 7, 2008 7:46 PM CDT
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No, you're not wrong
There’s Gagne too, among others.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jul 7, 2008 7:47 PM CDT
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And with so many picks coming in
the Brewers could also easily sign a big-name FA and give up their own second-rounder.
by Zeyes on
Jul 8, 2008 6:30 AM CDT
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Also not mentioned
1982 was the last time we made the playoffs… certainly this trade hurt the chances for the 2010 team to make the playoffs
But there are so many factors to have to go right in that 2010 season to have a chance. It is unlikely we will have a stellar rotation after Gallardo and Parra
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
by Kyguy922 on Jul 7, 2008 4:36 PM CDT 0 recs
It doesn't really hurt their 2010 chances so much
Even if Hart can play CF, you can still only play three of Braun, Fielder, Gamel, and LaPorta, so we just traded away the most valuable spare part.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jul 7, 2008 4:38 PM CDT
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I dont think we can really say what the team will look like in 2010
By then who knows who will have been traded or injuryed.
This trade is all about winning now and I for one prefer the idea about trying to win now rather than maybe being able to win tomorrow or next year.
This is the right move for the crew to make, trade a player that has no obvious chance of playing in the next 18 months – assuming that Braun,Hart and Fielder would block him over that time frame – for the best pitcher that was available.
The rest of the players given up are really nothing too much at the moment, althought the PTBNL could change that.
As the saying goes flags fly forever, Lets go and try and win today and enjoy the ride. The Brewers have the momentum at the moment and we have just added another 280lbs to it!!!!
by Saltire on
Jul 7, 2008 4:43 PM CDT
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I agree… this one could be worth it!
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
by Kyguy922 on
Jul 7, 2008 4:52 PM CDT
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one thing Shapiro pointed out during his press conference
you really can’t get too hung up on trying to project future seasons…both the White Sox and Twins were pretty dreadful last season and they’re back on top of the division now, and on the other hand Cleveland just might be going first to worst.
At best, you can only try to plan ahead well in general terms…losing or gaining one specific player will never make such an overwhelming difference that it will make or break a season that’s still two or three years away. And overall, the Brewers are still set up much, much better for the future than many other teams in the NL, even after trading away LaPorta and possibly Green.
by Zeyes on
Jul 7, 2008 5:02 PM CDT
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I am actually pretty into the idea of winning tomorrow, such is the case.
Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."
by DaleCoop14 on
Jul 7, 2008 6:49 PM CDT
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the PTBN
is Green or Brantley or someone else
Later on the radio, Melvin said that Hardy was never part of the discussion and that Escobar was only mentioned in the early part of the discussion.
by ol Pete on Jul 7, 2008 4:50 PM CDT 0 recs
of course it is
Did you think anyone was suggesting it was Brantly and Green?
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jul 7, 2008 4:58 PM CDT
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Jeff I agree with you about the chances of keeping CC
I think this shows that there is every chance we can resign him or Sheets.
There is a fair few SP free agents available this winter which should help to keep the prices down a bit.
I think that if the Crew can make the playoffs then obviously the break even point for the payroll goes up so I see no reason why we can’t keep it at around $90 million next year.
If it takes 5 or even 6 years – which I think is what both CC and Sheets would be looking for – at $16-17million a year then I think we might be able to squeeze that in.
Wether either of them is worth that kind of contract is maybe a bit more debatable due to the risks invovled of signing any pitcher to a long term deal (Hampton,Neagle,Brown,Zito etc)
by Saltire on Jul 7, 2008 4:52 PM CDT 0 recs
We (CLE) offered CC $72M/4. That’s $18M per, and surely on the low side both for $ and years.
Realistically you are looking at least $20/year, up to $25M/year, and at least 5, possibly as many as 7 years. The Brewers, like the Indians, are too smart to offer a 6+ year contract to a pitcher.
Enjoy CC for the rest of the year and good luck taking down the Cubs, we’ll be rooting for you. But don’t get you hopes up too far about resigning CC. Melvin will take the picks and run.
by KevinV on
Jul 7, 2008 8:58 PM CDT
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Congratulations to the Brewers
I’ll have to stroll down to my Brewer fan neighbor tonight, but I just stopped by from my usual Cubs fan sites to congratulate y’all on a fine acquisition. If Gallardo hadn’t gone down with a fluke injury, you might not have needed Sabathia, but it’s sure nice to have strong prospects you can deal to get what you need, isn’t it? Should be a close race all year.
And excellent, realistic analysis, Jeff.
Fontenot (fon-te-no): Cajun for "scrappy"
by zambranofan on Jul 7, 2008 7:24 PM CDT 0 recs
Brantley’s agent finally acknowledges it could indeed be Brantley. I’d assume he’s the target, but if he’s really injured, the Indians will take Green.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 7:37 PM CDT 0 recs
Incidentally
Project Prospect now has Brantley as the #106 prospect overall. Salome is #121 and Lucroy is #130.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on
Jul 7, 2008 7:48 PM CDT
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that's a scandal, right there
Brantley is no worse than #104, and there’s no way Lucroy doesn’t belong in the 120s, if not the 110s.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jul 7, 2008 8:12 PM CDT
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these are actually two of the best GM’s in the game making bold, yet solid, moves for their respective organizations. It should be a win-win, which is what you’d expect with these types of players and organizations involved.
He's extremely quick and good.
by battlekow on Jul 7, 2008 8:21 PM CDT 0 recs
he's just sucking up
he wants to take over for Gord Ash when Ash gets the Seattle job :).
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jul 7, 2008 9:05 PM CDT
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