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The Brewers' Secret Weapon

So, it's no surprise, of course, that Braun and Fielder are leading the team in home runs.  Anyone want to guess who's in third place?  Corey Hart?  JJ Hardy?

It's none other than Mike Cameron!  Quietly, he's put up 19 home runs in 3 1/2 months, after missing most of April.    At this pace, he should finish the season with 25-30.

In fact, he and fan fave Corey Hart have been virtually the same player this season: .323 OBP/.498 SLG for Corey, .328 OBP/.488 SLG for Cam.  The difference is batting average: Corey laps him with a 52 point BA advantage, though Cameron's 17 more walks give him the edge in OBP.

Against the rest of the NL centerfielders, Cameron is holding his own: 3rd in SLG, 3rd in HRs, 6th in OPS.

It's interesting to consider why he is often the forgotten man when thinking about the Brewers' successes this season.  One reason is the batting average, of course: of our regulars, only Rickie Weeks and Bill E. Hall are hitting with less frequency.  A second is the strikeouts, where he has as many Ks as Prince Fielder despite 140 fewer ABs. 

Moreover, as evidenced by a 1 for 12 performance against the Nationals last week, Cameron does not seem to like Miller Park.  His OPS is more than 300 points better on the road than at home (.943-.640), and he strikes out more at home despite 50 fewer ABs.  If you've gone to a home game or two, chances are good that you left not feeling particularly impressed.

(It's worth mentioning that his BA is a bit lower than his career numbers: he's a .250 career hitter, and that's when his home park was a pitcher park, like Petco.  Having his home park be a pitcher's park might explain why he's been better on the road in his career, too, though his career difference is 60 points, not 300.)

Given our options at center coming into the season (TG Jr., currently with a .651 OPS in AAA; the still-out-of-baseball Kenny Lofton), Mike Cameron has been a pretty good solution for the Brewers this season.  The question becomes, do you want to keep him for 2009?  It'll cost you a cool $10 million if you do, though buying out his option will run you $750,000.  If he can keep hitting against relatively weak competition as the season plays out, I'll bet you a nickel we pick up his option.

 

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10 million seems like a lot for cameron when you consider the pay raises that are going to be going out to aribitration guys, plus if they want to make a run at Sheets.

"You are only a success at the moment that you do a successful act"
-Tex Winter

by stork02 on Aug 13, 2008 8:50 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

My problem with Cam...

He can’t hit with runners in scoring position. He’s batting .214 with RISP with 23 k’s in only 70 AB’s. His stats for RISP with 2 outs are even worse; .188 avg with 11 k’s in only 32 ab’s.

Hopefully he’ll get on this hot streak that Ned has been waiting for all season. This would obviously be a perfect time to carry this team into the playoffs. As for next year, too much money for what he contributes. With that being said, he’ll be back.

by brewfan2 on Aug 13, 2008 9:57 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

He's not RISPy?

Well, he is for his career: and OBP of .370, not to mention .376 with 2 outs. Last year, it was .384 and .419. Heck, even with his poor BA, this season it’s a not-horrible .345 and .333.

Still, I agree with both: probably overpaid, and probably will be back.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Aug 13, 2008 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he continues at his current pace...

He’ll finish with around 5 WARP, which isn’t terribly bad production for $10 million.

by kingcharlesxii on Aug 13, 2008 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hate WARP

because it overstates defense big time.

But on the free agent market, you’re getting a good deal if you pay less than $3MM per win—and that number will be higher next year. So if you expect 3.5 wins or more from Cameron next year (which I do), the option is worth it.

And this year’s deal has been an absolute steal.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 13, 2008 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder what the odds are Mat Gamel outhits Cameron next year

Certainly Corey Hart wouldn’t outfield him. Could Gamel hit well enough to offset the difference?

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Aug 13, 2008 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

well, let's tinker.

Cameron’s current OPS is 816. It’s better, even after adusting for park, than his numbers last year, and he’ll age, so let’s knock him down to 800 for 2009.

Gamel’s MLE right now is right now is 787 …however, he’s getting BABIP-lucky, to the tune of about 50 points of BABIP. My MLEs don’t account for much of that. Let’s say that knocks him down to 750-760, which might be optimistic.

Assuming Gamel develops, it’s easy to see him posting an 800 OPS in the big leagues…it’s also not hard to imagine him scuffling after little or no AAA time and hitting 750 or worse. I would need really good odds to bet that Gamel would outhit Cameron by much; I would need astronomical odds to bet that the difference would offset the defense.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 13, 2008 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What about odds that the difference would offset the defense plus the (much) more money that would be owed to Cameron as opposed to Gamel.

If it meant helping to get CC or Ben back (or another higher-end pitcher) I might just take my chances.

Wait, what?

by NoahJ on Aug 13, 2008 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't really call him a secret weapon

He’s always been a guy who hits 20+ HRs, strikes out a lot and never has a spectacular average. Cameron’s doing exactly what he’s done his whole career so it’s not really a secret.

I’d like to see Tony Gwynn get a chance to play regularly, but Cam probably will be back.

by brewersbitch on Aug 13, 2008 11:42 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

You'd like to see Tony Gwynn get the chance to play regularly?

He is. At Nashville. And he’s hitting .272/.329/.321. That’s an MLE of .237/.296/.270. His career MLE is .240/.315/.295. For the sake of comparison, Lee Haydel’s MLE is .208/.256/.254. Who is Lee Haydel? Exactly. He’s the center fielder for the Brewers’ A-ball team. He runs really fast too.

So yeah, I’d like to see Gwynn get the chance to play regularly. For the Cubs.

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Aug 13, 2008 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Tony Gwynn Jr. was named Joe NotHOFersKid

Would he even come up as a realistic option for centerfield?

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 13, 2008 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, probably

seems like a lot of teams have a scrappy AAA guy who has gotten few clutch hits in a cup of coffee, plays good D, but isn’t really good enough to make the jump.

Aside from the “plays good D” part, Dillon is kinda like that. If, say, Rottino had made the team over him in the spring, Dillon’s name probably wouldn’t be coming up right now, either.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 13, 2008 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If he was named Cutter Gwynn, maybe

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Aug 13, 2008 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gabe Gwynn, it would replenish our Gabe rating and doubled initials rating (DIR) currently stuck at 2.

Coffee is for closers

by drezdn on Aug 13, 2008 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

It's not a secret

but for a guy who is one of the more valuable players in the league at his position, you sure hear a lot of complaining about him from the fanbase. A lot of people have lumped him in with Weeks and Hall, which is not at all fair to him.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 13, 2008 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think it's the batting average

If those 17 more walks were infield singles, he’d be hitting .275 - good enough where people probably wouldn’t care about his walks or strikeouts.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Aug 13, 2008 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes, it absolutely is.

I’m glad you posted this, since I was thinking a “stop caring so damn much about batting average!” post was about due.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 13, 2008 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What's really interesting...

Outside of certain specific situations (like winning run in scoring position, two outs, and Rickie Weeks up next), Cameron is actually more valuable than Hart with the same OBP and SLG and a lower AVG, because it means he has more power (or at least, has displayed more power). A little counterintuitive.

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Aug 13, 2008 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

My predictive powers:

So I had this conversation with a friend (Cubs fan) on April 11:

Friend: quick question… what do you project from mike cameron this year when he comes back?
Me: Off the top of my head…about .250/.330/.475.

I was 11 OPS points off.

Of course, I also predicted 120 K’s (which he will far surpass) and Gold Glove caliber defense (which he’s not quite reaching).

Hence my decision to call it "screwing around" as opposed to "in-depth study."

by KLSnow on Aug 13, 2008 2:54 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Low-ish average aside...

I wish Cameron would have signed with the Cubs.

DEROSA: How did it feel when you're sitting in Baton Rouge and it came across the ticker that Mark DeRosa had just signed to play second base with the Chicago Cubs.

THERIOT: In all honestly, when I saw it, I really felt like punching you right in the mouth and or breaking your leg.

by EJThunder on Aug 14, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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